Karl Towns - Debating where Towns really ranks

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12211011/nba-debating-karl-anthony-towns-draft-stock-nba-value

Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the second-highest-ranked big man on Ford's Big Board (No. 3). However, his numbers aren't dominant. Why does he warrant a high draft ranking? Insider's NBA draft experts weigh in on that as well as other topics, including NBA comps for Towns, other bigs in the 2015 draft class who could flourish at the next level, and players who have recently emerged as draft sleepers.

Why is Karl-Anthony Towns ranked so high on the Big Board?

Chad Ford: While Big Board No. 1 Jahlil Okafor is a more dominating presence offensively, Towns has been equally good defensively for Kentucky this season. He's an elite shot-blocker and a very good rebounder who has the agility to get out and guard both 4s and 5s at the NBA level. He's a much more fluid athlete than Okafor, which I think largely accounts for his superior defense.

Offensively, Towns hasn't been as dominant. He lacks Okafor's footwork around the basket and, at times, he lacks Okafor's toughness when play gets physical. He has a nasty habit of fading away on his shots in the paint too often. But I think the platoon Kentucky runs, combined with guards who love to shoot first and ask questions later (I'm looking at you, Harrison twins), play a larger role in his uneven offensively play.

The potential is there. Towns has soft hands, a high basketball IQ and, while he hasn't totally shown it this season, he can spread the floor and has range out to the NBA 3-point line. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 at the next level should be very attractive to teams drafting high.

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Kevin Pelton: Towns currently sits ninth on my board in terms of projected WARP, but he's the leader among guys who are legitimately in contention for the top pick. (As noted last week, Okafor has performed better, but his projection has regressed more to the mean because of his high 2-point percentage.)

The numbers play out basically like you'd expect. Towns is ahead of Okafor defensively, and rebounding and shot-blocking (his 14.0 percent block rate ranks fifth in the country, per KenPom.com) are currently his two biggest statistical strengths. But he's not as involved in the balanced UK offense, and his 2-point percentage (.510) is on the low side for an NBA-bound big man.

Which NBA players could be comparisons for Towns?

Ford: I'm trying to think of the last 6-foot-11 big man with a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-5 standing reach with Towns' skills. Is there a mobile big who can rebound, block shots at an elite level, and on offense stretch the floor and pass the way Towns is capable of passing?

I can't really think of who that guy is right now. Kevin?

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Pelton: SCHOENE isn't much of a help. The two players with similarity scores of better than 95 at the same age are Patrick O'Bryant, whose impressive performance against mid-major competition never translated to the NBA, and Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

From a physical/tools standpoint, I might say Al Horford. But Horford doesn't have Towns' wingspan, one reason why he's not the same kind of shot-blocking presence. And Horford grew into the superior offensive player in college. He was about the same age as a sophomore that Towns is now, and he shot 60.8 percent from the field then.

Ford: Horford was the player I was thinking of, as well. But Towns is significantly bigger: He's 3 inches taller with a much bigger wingspan and standing reach. What a monster Horford would be if he was Towns' size. That comp certainly won't hurt him.

Aside from Okafor and Towns, are there any other big men in this draft class who could be elite NBA players?

Ford: I'm a huge Kristaps Porzingis fan. He's a long, athletic 4 who can stretch the floor and draws comparisons to a young Dirk Nowitzki by several players and scouts in Europe. If he were in the NCAA right now, I think he'd be in the mix for the No. 1 pick. I also love UCLA's Kevon Looney. He's another long, active forward who attacks the offensive glass but has the ability to handle the ball and shoot it from distance. He reminds me a bit of Lamar Odom.

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And I think there's a case for Texas' Myles Turner and Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein looks like the sort of elite defender who could guard four positions in the NBA. Turner can really shoot it, and he's a good rebounder and shot-blocker. I think Turner has upside similar to LaMarcus Aldridge, though concerns about how he runs and his strength certainly are causes of concern. And my sleeper right now is Arkansas' Bobby Portis, whom I'll talk about more in a minute.

In short, this is a very good big-man draft. Who do you like, Kevin?

Pelton: I suspect we'll go into this in more detail in the future, but the top-ranked big man in terms of WARP projections isn't Okafor or Towns -- it's Turner. The other big man in the statistical top 10 is Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, and while scouts seem to have come around on him, the top 10 remains a stretch.

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Which players have recently emerged as draft sleepers?

Ford: You were on to him early, Kevin, but I think Portis is really living up to the high expectations you put on him. He's a versatile offensive player, rebounds, blocks shots and is very, very consistent. He's really stepped up his game in conference play, averaging 23 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg and 1.5 spg. I've moved him to No. 13 on my Big Board, but I have a feeling that you may have him ranked even higher.

Pelton: Actually, that's almost exactly where he sits in terms of WARP projections: 12th overall. Portis has taken a nice step forward as a sophomore, and now the skills that were a little more subtle last season have become obvious.

My sleeper is Louisville freshman center Chinanu Onuaku. That name should sound familiar, since his older brother Arinze played at Syracuse and spent time in the NBA last season. Chinanu has a different game than his brother. He's longer and skinnier (6-10, 220 pounds) and not as effective offensively. But Onuaku stands out as a shot-blocker. He's rejecting better than 10 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts, and his steal rate (3.1 percent) is excellent for a big man. Equally notably, Onuaku turned 18 in November, making him one of the youngest players in college hoops. So while I don't think he's likely to enter the draft this year, Onuaku's development is worth watching. Have you heard anything about him from scouts?

Ford: Yeah, he's definitely a sleeper. He plays 16 minutes per game for Louisville and averages just 3.8 ppg. If he went in the first round, he'd have the lowest ever scoring average for a U.S.-based first-round pick. But you're right to point out the impressive rebounding, shot-blocking and steal rates. Coach Rick Pitino loves him because he's a defensive monster. Every scout who goes to a Louisville game mentions him as a prospect -- but one who will likely not be in the draft until 2016 or 2017. He's very raw right now. But who knows? With the continued growth of statistical analysis in many NBA front offices, he seems like a terrific test case.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Towns sounds great on paper. I mean he doesn't compare to anybody... well, except for being a bigger (and better?) Al Horford, who's an All Star player.

I know measurements are critically important in gauging NBA prospects. Sometimes, there's a reason for that. But do they take precedence over actual performance?

Should they?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I don't normally agree with Ford and these guys, but I'm 100% on the Towns train. All aboard.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Like Abe, I like Towns on paper, but he just isn't featured much at Kentucky and there are so many other damn weapons they have. At least with Okafor and other past freshman phenoms, they get enough minutes and touches that they build up a fairly significant body of work.

Towns is a bit like LaVine in that it would be a somewhat speculative pick (and this is not unusual, especially for bigs). The good news is that Towns does produce when he plays, so he isn't just a chunk of clay that needs to be molded; he actually has some refinement to his game....but.....he isn't featured in the same way as Okafor or even Frank Kaminsky for that matter. We've seen what can happen to some players (ahem, nearly every T-Wolf) when suddenly they are thrust into a bigger role. That's the one thing that makes me a bit uncomfortable with Towns, but I can't argue with him being a top 2 or 3 pick.

[thedoper]

I wouldn't be upset at getting any of these bigs at the right spot. I'd more nervous about the lower tiers but I think Towns or Okafor can fit into our squad nicely. I am excited already, which disappoints me because I promised myself I wouldn't be getting excited about draft picks in January this year.

[WildWolf2813]

I want Towns more than any player, but I'm almost fully prepared for this team to not wind up with him.