Wiseman at #1
Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:10 pm
I started a thread on Edwards last week and promised I'd start threads on some of the other top prospects. So here's a thread to discuss Wiseman. I still favor trading down and drafting Okongwu (or perhaps Deni, Vassell or Haliburton) if a reasonable deal can be had. Otherwise, if we keep the #1 pick, I'm on the fence between Wiseman and Edwards.
So here's the basic case for drafting and keeping Edwards, leaving room for others to add and elaborate:
1. He has tremendous length on par with elite NBA centers like Embiid and Gobert
2. He appears to have solid skills and very good mobility for someone his size
3. He put up elite numbers in college, albeit in only three game and fairly limited minutes. Wiseman averaged 23 minutes in his three college games. On a 36-minute basis, he averaged 30.8 points, 16.7 rebounds, 4.7 blocks and 9 foul shots per game. Note also that he shot 76.8% from the field and averaged 72% from the line. No other college player came remotely close to those numbers.
But here are some concerns and questions:
1. His college stats are on an extremely limited sample size of only three games at 23 minutes per game. Moreover, he didn't face any particularly good teams or top-level college bigs in any of those three games.
2. There are reports circulating that he doesn't give consistent effort and at least one report I read questioned whether he really loves the game. Some might argue that his decision to forego the rest of the college season supports the view that he doesn't love or isn't fully committed to the game. I'd say he had reason to be upset with the way he was treated and I never held his decision to leave against him. But it's fair to wonder how much he truly loves the game or whether he's fully commitment to the game given his decision to walk away from the game and his teammates and focus on the draft.
3. There are reports questioning his instincts and toughness. He's be described by some analysts as slow to react on the defensive end and preferring jump shots over attacking the rim on the offensive end.
4. Watching him play, I'm not blown away by what I see. I see the length and I like the way he runs the court. There's also some nice fluidity to his game. But he seems a bit slow laterally and doesn't strike me as having much quick-twitch explosiveness or small-area quickness. Moreover, he doesn't look strong, although his frame seems to have ample room for more muscle.
5. There's a long list of 7'0' busts in NBA draft history, including:
LaRue Martin
Todd Fuller
Robert Swift
Has been Thabeet
Darko Milicic
Shawn Bradley
Kandiman
Sam Bowie
Greg Oden
The last two ended up busts mainly because of physical issues. But the reasons for the others ending up as busts remain mysterious. Of course, we can come up with a list of draft busts at other positions as well. But I think there's a tendency to become unduly enticed by a prospect's length and his use of that length to dominate high school and college competition. I'm almost enticed why Wiseman's length and potential. But I have this gut feeling that he's not going to prosper in the NBA.
There are a number of things the Wolves front office will need to sort out about Wiseman, based on a lot more information than I'll ever have access to. If they decide not to draft him base on information that tends to confirm the concerns or questions I've raised then they will have made the right decision. However, if they decide not to draft him only because they don't believe he fits the modern NBA or the Wolves "system or style of play," then I'll be pissed. If the Wolves conclude that Wiseman has a very good chance of becoming a player on par with Embiid, Bosh, Duncan or even Gobert, then the Wolves should absolutely positively draft him at #1 and keep him.
The intrigue with Wiseman is that, if he becomes as good as many believe he can be, the Wolves would have a dominant twin-tower duo that would be extremely hard for other NBA teams to counter. It would be the quintessential strategic move that could put the Wolves front office in the conversation as one of the best in the NBA. If they draft him and he ends up a flop like so many bigs taken at or near the top of past NBA drafts, then we can just add it to the long list of Wolves' draft blunders.
Cam - I'm counting on you to talk me into going all in on Wiseman. :)
So here's the basic case for drafting and keeping Edwards, leaving room for others to add and elaborate:
1. He has tremendous length on par with elite NBA centers like Embiid and Gobert
2. He appears to have solid skills and very good mobility for someone his size
3. He put up elite numbers in college, albeit in only three game and fairly limited minutes. Wiseman averaged 23 minutes in his three college games. On a 36-minute basis, he averaged 30.8 points, 16.7 rebounds, 4.7 blocks and 9 foul shots per game. Note also that he shot 76.8% from the field and averaged 72% from the line. No other college player came remotely close to those numbers.
But here are some concerns and questions:
1. His college stats are on an extremely limited sample size of only three games at 23 minutes per game. Moreover, he didn't face any particularly good teams or top-level college bigs in any of those three games.
2. There are reports circulating that he doesn't give consistent effort and at least one report I read questioned whether he really loves the game. Some might argue that his decision to forego the rest of the college season supports the view that he doesn't love or isn't fully committed to the game. I'd say he had reason to be upset with the way he was treated and I never held his decision to leave against him. But it's fair to wonder how much he truly loves the game or whether he's fully commitment to the game given his decision to walk away from the game and his teammates and focus on the draft.
3. There are reports questioning his instincts and toughness. He's be described by some analysts as slow to react on the defensive end and preferring jump shots over attacking the rim on the offensive end.
4. Watching him play, I'm not blown away by what I see. I see the length and I like the way he runs the court. There's also some nice fluidity to his game. But he seems a bit slow laterally and doesn't strike me as having much quick-twitch explosiveness or small-area quickness. Moreover, he doesn't look strong, although his frame seems to have ample room for more muscle.
5. There's a long list of 7'0' busts in NBA draft history, including:
LaRue Martin
Todd Fuller
Robert Swift
Has been Thabeet
Darko Milicic
Shawn Bradley
Kandiman
Sam Bowie
Greg Oden
The last two ended up busts mainly because of physical issues. But the reasons for the others ending up as busts remain mysterious. Of course, we can come up with a list of draft busts at other positions as well. But I think there's a tendency to become unduly enticed by a prospect's length and his use of that length to dominate high school and college competition. I'm almost enticed why Wiseman's length and potential. But I have this gut feeling that he's not going to prosper in the NBA.
There are a number of things the Wolves front office will need to sort out about Wiseman, based on a lot more information than I'll ever have access to. If they decide not to draft him base on information that tends to confirm the concerns or questions I've raised then they will have made the right decision. However, if they decide not to draft him only because they don't believe he fits the modern NBA or the Wolves "system or style of play," then I'll be pissed. If the Wolves conclude that Wiseman has a very good chance of becoming a player on par with Embiid, Bosh, Duncan or even Gobert, then the Wolves should absolutely positively draft him at #1 and keep him.
The intrigue with Wiseman is that, if he becomes as good as many believe he can be, the Wolves would have a dominant twin-tower duo that would be extremely hard for other NBA teams to counter. It would be the quintessential strategic move that could put the Wolves front office in the conversation as one of the best in the NBA. If they draft him and he ends up a flop like so many bigs taken at or near the top of past NBA drafts, then we can just add it to the long list of Wolves' draft blunders.
Cam - I'm counting on you to talk me into going all in on Wiseman. :)