ORtg and DRtg

[FNG]

Ok, I have friends who rip me for looking at this stat on basketball-reference.com, but I generally find it reliable in supporting conclusions I reach from just watching games. It's only been two games, but the Wolves' ratings are quite interesting. From best to worst, I'll put the guys who have played into three tiers:

Culver: 162/101
Edwards: 134/107
KAT: 114/95
Reid: 113/102
Okogie: 116/109

Beasley: 110/106
Russell: 108/107
Rubio: 102/104

Juancho: 15/101
Layman: 16/106

I find these numbers quite revealing:

-the flow of games seems to totally change when Culver and Edwards come into the game, and it's interesting to see how their impact is reflected in this stat. These guys are young and still developing so we don't expect these extraordinary numbers to continue. But the potential for having two young 2-way stars is there.

- I was worried about KAT's head coming into the season, and his offense is not where I expect it will be. But he has talked about defense being a focus this year, and I think he has been outstanding in the first two games- and especially against the Jazz. And what I have seen is reflected in his DRtg. Let's not forget that KAT was considered a plus defender at Kentucky. If he can continue playing defense like he did against the Jazz, this team is going to be good. He has looked like a true rim protector.

- Naz is not playing like a 21 year old undrafted guy. His footwork on defense is much improved and reflected in the numbers, and being a 3-point threat is a bonus. KAT's offensive foul issues are going to put him on the bench often- what a blessing to have a guy that can come in and give productive minutes like Naz has.

- Okogie has been asked in the first two games to defend the opponent's second biggest player, and he has answered the call to some extent. We all hold our breath from time to time with Josh and wish he could play more under control and improve his outside shot, but there's no question he has helped the wolves win their first two games with his non-stop intensity. I liked that he only took (and missed) one 3-pointer tonight, but instead relied more on drives to the basket and hustle put backs. Nice start to the season for Josh!

Beasley, Russell and Rubio- All three of these guys have had major roles in our first two wins, but they all have flaws which depress their ratings- primarily efficient scoring. But still, there are things I like about all three. Ricky has always played hard, but I guess I never noticed Russell and Beasley's toughness before. Both are erratic on defense and sometimes questionable in their shot selection, but I love how intense both have consistently been in the first two games. And there's no disputing they both can make big shots.

Juancho and Sunshine- Shaking my head. The numbers don't lie. We are 2-0 despite two absurdly bad games by both. Either their production has to change radically, or I will be calling for either Vando or McDaniels to replace then in the rotation. I mean really- could they be any worse?

What do you guys see in these numbers? Any different thoughts?

[60WinTim]

Well, in defense of Junacho and Sunshine, their minutes have been so limited that the sample size of data is incredibly small. And there is value having low usage guys that are at least a threat from the outside, making it easier for our high-usage guys to operate. This is a huge reason why Randle is a terrible fit for this team stocked with guards and wings that need touches.

I have a bad feeling KAT will be out for awhile. Which not only elevates Naz to the starter role (how about that freakin' story!), but introduces us to the Ed Davis era. It might even give more opportunity for Junacho to contribute more than just "being a threat"...

[Lipoli390]

Great post, FNG. We all know that those particularly stats don't tell the whole story and can sometimes be misleading. But in this instance, they seem to be on the mark. I think they understate the contributions and overall play of Beasley and DLO while overstating the prowess of Culver and Edwards. On the other hand, Culver and Edwards have been tremendous these first two games and are looking like future cornerstones of this franchise.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

And there is value having low usage guys that are at least a threat from the outside, making it easier for our high-usage guys to operate. This is a huge reason why Randle is a terrible fit for this team stocked with guards and wings that need touches.

That's certainly one way to look at it. Low usage guys that pose a threat from outside! Juan Hernangomez (35.6 3P%) and Jake Layman (30.8 3P%) don't actually need on-court production to justify their minutes. They just need to be a threat!

I'm just ribbing you a bit for the phrasing, but I'm not understanding the logic there. Two guys that don't do any one thing well -- but have several legitimate weaknesses -- have value because they can stand around the three-point line? If either of them were proven shooters for their career, then I could work my way up to that stance, but they're not.

Meanwhile, Julius Randle, just as an example, is a nightly double-double threat who makes the team bigger, faster, stronger, tougher, and more athletic. He's shown to be an efficient scorer when surrounded by other competent players (2017-18 Lakers, 2018-19 Pelicans) by posting TS% higher than .600. The one thing he doesn't do is take or make threes, but he's an actual threat off the dribble and in transition, which has value in itself on this team, as well as being a bull in the paint. Randle makes this team better if he were on it. I have no doubts about that in my mind.

[kekgeek]

Just thought I should put these stats in this thread. This is stuff from Cleaning the Glass and you know I love Cleaning the Glass. I want to say these numbers have such small sample size don't know how much you can take from it.

In all of Ricky Rubio lineups they are outscoring opponents by 22.1 pts per 100 possessions what is in the 100th percentile in the NBA. The Wolves have been 30.7 pts per 100 possessions better when Rubio has been on the court in his 57 minutes.

Wolves have been 10.2 pts better then there opponents when Edwards has been on the court.

Towns is a plus 15.5 pts per 100 possessions but I think the key stat is the wolves are only giving up 101.6 pts per 100 possessions when Kat is on the floor. Putting some numbers to the eye test that Kat has been better on that end this year. Once again super small sample size.

Wolves are -2.8 per 100 possessions when Dlo has been on the floor this year so far. Once again super small sample size and numbers like these can be so noisy in a small sample size. Still enjoying what Dlo has brought to this team this year. It is really nice to have a guy that can just get you a bucket in the half court even if it doesn't always look pretty..

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I love this stuff guys, but waaaaaay too early to be tallying up +/- stats. I try to avoid looking at this until we're at least a few more games in (although I do make exceptions for anything that reinforces the greatness of Ricky Rubio!).

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Putting aside the small sample size for this year, DLO does have a pretty iffy history with +/- and net rating over his career. Everyone knows about his defensive struggles, but I can kind of see where offensively he is less than ideal. He is VERY heavily reliant on outside shooting and rarely collapses a defense based on dribble drive penetration and finishing ability in the paint.

Still, he's a very skilled player and a shot maker. He can be a cog on a really good team, but he is absolutely in the 2nd or 3rd tier of NBA starting point guards in my opinion.

[60WinTim]

And there is value having low usage guys that are at least a threat from the outside, making it easier for our high-usage guys to operate. This is a huge reason why Randle is a terrible fit for this team stocked with guards and wings that need touches.

That's certainly one way to look at it. Low usage guys that pose a threat from outside! Juan Hernangomez (35.6 3P%) and Jake Layman (30.8 3P%) don't actually need on-court production to justify their minutes. They just need to be a threat!

I'm just ribbing you a bit for the phrasing, but I'm not understanding the logic there. Two guys that don't do any one thing well -- but have several legitimate weaknesses -- have value because they can stand around the three-point line? If either of them were proven shooters for their career, then I could work my way up to that stance, but they're not.

Meanwhile, Julius Randle, just as an example, is a nightly double-double threat who makes the team bigger, faster, stronger, tougher, and more athletic. He's shown to be an efficient scorer when surrounded by other competent players (2017-18 Lakers, 2018-19 Pelicans) by posting TS% higher than .600. The one thing he doesn't do is take or make threes, but he's an actual threat off the dribble and in transition, which has value in itself on this team, as well as being a bull in the paint. Randle makes this team better if he were on it. I have no doubts about that in my mind.

Well, I could rib you for calling Rubio a backup PG! ;-)

I have nothing vested in Layman or Juancho and welcome the day either of them are displaced in the lineup (although the Wolves were 10-8 with Layman to start last season, and fell apart after he went down with the toe injury!). Monster had made a pretty good case as to how Randle made his teams worse and would not be a good fit on this team.

I keep hearing that Rosas does not consider the current roster a "completed product". But it is pretty clear we are trending in the right direction.

[Lipoli390]

Based on what we've seen so far, I wouldn't want to trade anyone on this roster other than Layman, Juancho and Davis. Unfortunately, I don't see any team giving us anything of value for any of those three.

So what can the Wolves do to improve the roster without a trade? Well, we have one open roster spot and about $3M of room under the luxury tax threshold. Under the circumstances, I think the best next move for the Wolves would be to fill the remaining roster spot with the best rebounding and defensive big they can find on the free agent market. That might be RHJ. Or maybe it's Taj Gibson, John Henson or Ilyasova.

Every game matters when it comes to making the playoffs. So it makes no sense to leave an open roster spot at this point based on the chance of some unforeseeable event down the road that might benefit from an open roster spot or a couple million in cap space.

[60WinTim]

I thought Dane Moore said we were more like 300K under the luxury tax... I am not sure where it stands, but I think avoiding the tax is pretty dang important to the Wolves since that would make them a tax repeater, with harsher restrictions going into next offseason.