An Optimistic Scenario

[Lipoli390]

After tonight's win over the Suns, the Wolves are 8-19. That's a terrible record through 27 games, roughly 1/3 of the season. That means we have 14 games to go before hitting the season's midpoint. For me the key will be that midpoint -- i.e., the second half of this season beginning in early January. By that time, I expect this team to have turned things around significantly. By that time, there should be no more excuses related to coaches or players needing to adjust to one another, etc.

So out of the darkness that is the Wolves season so far I see some light. That light is a turnaround that may have already begun the past few games. If the Wolves are truly turning things around, then I see a very positive and I believe realistic scenario that could unfold over the next 14 games leading up to the second half of the season. Specifically, I can realistically see the Wolves winning 9 of their next 14 games (a record of 9-5 over that stretch). The 9 wins I consider realistic over the next 14 games are home games against the Kings, Hawks, Bucks, Blazers, Jazz, Mavs and Rockets and road wins against the Sixers and Nuggets.

If that happens, we will be 17-24 to start the second half of the season. Winning just one more game than we lose in our final 41 games (i.e., 21 wins) and we'd end up with a final season record of 38-44. That's not optimal and it's less than many of us thought we'd win this season, but it would be a satisfactory finish given the deep hole we're in now.

My best case, but still somewhat realistic scenario would have us win 9 of the next 14 and then finish 5 games over .500 in our final 41, in which case we'd end up with a final season record of 40-42. That wold be a triumphant finish given where we're at right now.

Don't get me wrong. I haven't taken leave of my senses and I'm not in a chemically altered state. I have no doubt that, from what we've seen so far, this team could continue to flounder and we could easily end up with about as many wins as we had last season, which would be a disaster in my view. But I've seen enough to give me hope for a most positive outcome along the lines I've suggested above.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I like your optimism Lip, anything is possible. I certainly think this team is capable of playing better (heck, we saw practically the same squad finish strong last year), but I'm not sure we completely dig out of the hole we dug early. At this point, I'm just hoping we end up with more than last year's 29 wins!

[Coolbreeze44]

I've long believed we were going to be a much better team the 2nd half of the season. So I share the same hope you do for a much better outcome than it might appear today. Let's be honest, this team is talented. We have three 21 year olds who every team in the league would love to have. There is no reason we can't get hot and have some good stretches over the last 2/3 of the season. Of course there is going to be some frustration along the way, but I haven't wavered in my belief this team can be a factor in the playoff race. Thankfully the West isn't as daunting as we've seen over the last 5 years, so anything is possible. I look forward to every game not knowing if it's the night we turn the corner and step forward.

[60WinTim]

Just for yucks...

We are 8-19 thru 27 games. Last year we were 11-16, 3 games better than this year. However, last year we only managed to muster 3 more wins over the next 23 games!

Does anyone think we will only win 3 games over the next 23? I didn't think so. Of course, we were saying positive stuff like this at the beginning of the season... :)

[kekgeek]

Serious question with the wolves end up winning 35 games this year that is 27-28 the rest of the way if my math is correct. Is that a failure of a season.

That is a 7 game improvement what is a ton in the NBA. I'm just curious.

[Monster]

Serious question with the wolves end up winning 35 games this year that is 27-28 the rest of the way if my math is correct. Is that a failure of a season.

That is a 7 game improvement what is a ton in the NBA. I'm just curious.

I think it is disappointing overall but I don't think it's a failure but I said that months ago because I thought that it was possible the Wolves ended up in that mid 30's win range if things didn't go their way.

[Monster]

Good stuff in this thread. I'll add another optimistic angle. What if the early part of the season was the bad part? Last year it was that brutal December and January that has been brought up already. What if this team has turned the corner? We will see I remain hopeful.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Serious question with the wolves end up winning 35 games this year that is 27-28 the rest of the way if my math is correct. Is that a failure of a season.

That is a 7 game improvement what is a ton in the NBA. I'm just curious.

I didn't take the time to go back and reread the wins prediction thread, but my recollection is that not one of us predicted that we would win as few as 35 games this season. In fact, I think all of the predictions may have been over 40 wins. I respect the opinions of almost everyone on this board, and think we have some excellent basketball minds here. So, if a failure of a season is defined as falling well below expectations, yes...35 wins would be a colossal failure.

[60WinTim]

And to bring back some unfettered opTIMism... The Blazers loss last night puts them at 17 losses for the season. They are currently in the playoffs as the 8th seed. At 19 losses, the Wolves are only 2 games back in the loss column. Hmmm....

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yeah, how fortuitous that the Western Conference doesn't seem quite as strong on the middle and low end this year, thus making the 8th seed still in play. Crazy.

That being said, we've been incredibly lucky on the injury front and STILL have been one of the worst teams in the NBA. To me, our incredibly slow start despite very good health is indeed a colossal failure.

To Kekgeek's question, I wouldn't consider 35 wins a colossal failure since obviously for us to get there we would have to turn things around and basically play .500 ball from here on out. But it would still be a disappointment as Monster said.

At this point, anything less than 30 wins is a colossal failure, anything between 31 and 40 wins is a disappointment, and anything from 41 wins on up is a very nice step forward. Unfortunately, getting to 41+ wins seems impossible at this point.