Good Reports on Wolves Offseason

[Coolbreeze44]

Was listening to NBA radio today and both Rick Kamla (who's an idiot) and Antonio Daniels thought the Wolves had the best offseason. Nice to hear given all the assets we gave up.

[Lipoli390]

I can't disagree with you on Kamala. I'm not sure how much comfort I take in the thoughts of two guys, one of whom is an idiot. :).

I think the Kyle Anderson signing was a very good one for the Wolves. I loved the Minott pick in the 2nd round. I'm fine, although not thrilled, with the Moore pick. I'm underwhelmed by the decision to elevate Nathan Knight from a two-way deal to a regular roster contract. I'm disappointed the Wolves have passed on two intriguing PG prospects (McClung and Sharife Cooper) for one of their two-way contracts or a final roster spot. I'm also disappointed the Wolves didn't give one of their two-way contracts to Kevon Harris.

But all those moves or decisions, good or bad, fade into insignificance in the shadow of the Gobert deal. The quality of the Wolves' 2022 off season ultimately turns on that one huge transaction. My view of that deal is no mystery. While I can get excited about having Gobert here, there is no way I would have made that deal. I think the Wolves gave up way too much. I consider it too risky and the wrong deal at the wrong time. Putting my own views aside, here is what I'd consider to be the best, most balanced, evaluation of the Gobert deal:

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/07/trade-breakdown-rudy-gobert-to-timberwolves.html

[60WinTim]

Interesting article, Lip. The first half should get anyone who is excited about the new look Wolves even more excited! His main concern is how much future capital we gave up that goes beyond the number of years Gobert is signed for, and who we were bidding against, even if it was only the Jazz.

My only comment is when you look at the amazing fit Gobert has with the Wolves, what are you going to do? If the Jazz say "no, we'll wait to see if something better comes along", what are you going to do? Just wait until the Jazz decide to say yes to your smaller package? I don't see how you can choose to wait, because if the deal never happens you would have missed most opportunities to do anything else. So, you could choose to do something else right away, passing by the opportunity to get Gobert.

But DANG! Opportunities to add an amazing fit like Gobert don't come along very often, IF EVER. Given the first half of the article, I would do whatever it takes to get the deal done, too! (the deal meaning: add Gobert and keep KAT, Edwards and McDaniels)

[thedoper]

I think the Gobert deal was as much about securing 3 max slots before signing Ant and Jaden. The premium is that Gobert theoretically addresses a number of our weaknesses. Remember when we were up against the cap with just Towns and Wiggins? Even though it will be expensive long term and the luxury tax will eventually be a huge factor will will have as many as 5 high salary slots to make moved with, that is a ton of potential flexibility for acquiring high level talent. Its how Golden State has been able to keep their relevance and rejuvenate their talent. I think it was smart of Connelly to recognize right away that a trade was the only way we were going to effectively fill that slot. It was a lot of draft equity, but moving forward Connelly will have the 3 max slots of Dlo (who either needs to be signed or traded )Gobert, and Towns to make moves with long term.

[Lipoli390]

I think the Gobert deal was as much about securing 3 max slots before signing Ant and Jaden. The premium is that Gobert theoretically addresses a number of our weaknesses. Remember when we were up against the cap with just Towns and Wiggins? Even though it will be expensive long term and the luxury tax will eventually be a huge factor will will have as many as 5 high salary slots to make moved with, that is a ton of potential flexibility for acquiring high level talent. Its how Golden State has been able to keep their relevance and rejuvenate their talent. I think it was smart of Connelly to recognize right away that a trade was the only way we were going to effectively fill that slot. It was a lot of draft equity, but moving forward Connelly will have the 3 max slots of Dlo (who either needs to be signed or traded )Gobert, and Towns to make moves with long term.

You can't get value trading max players who don't play at a max level unless the player's in the last year of his deal. And even then, it can be tough to get decent value in return. Instead, you often have to give away assets to get teams to take those players. That's what happened with Wiggins and he wasn't anywhere near the salary level of KAT or Gobert.

The only value in the Gobert trade will be what Gobert brings to the court. He has to stay healthy and productive for the next four years at a level comparable to his level of play the past four years. I wouldn't bet against that happening, but it's a risk. A key part of the article echos Draymond Green's point that the Gobert deal works if Edwards stays healthy and reaches his potential in the next few years. Interesting that the article's author and Draymond independently came to the same conclusion. Edwards reaching his potential is the guy who makes this team a championship contender. That's what will allow Gobert's defensive prowess to make a different in the playoffs. As the author says, Gobert isn't a guy who really raises your ceiling; he's a guy who raises the floor. He's the guy, if healthy and playing at the top of his game, who raises the team's regular season floor substantially. I agree with that take.

The risk is that the team's ability to adjust and adapt the roster on the fly in the face of key injuries or surprises has been substantially diminished. Denver avoided a tailspin when Murray went down by maximizing their plentiful draft assets with picks that included Morris, Hyland and Porter Jr. The Sixers were able to overcome the Simmons debacle by drafting Maxey. Years ago, the Spurs limited the impact of David Robinson's injury to one season by turning that one bad season into the Tim Duncan with the top pick in the draft. There are other examples - either getting key players through the draft or using future draft assets in trades to get players to fill unexpected needs that emerge.

I understand the thinking that you take an opportunity when it presents itself. I do think the Wolves negotiated against themselves and that Danny Ainge exploited the zeal that took hold among Wolves front office staff, coaches and owners. On the other hand, it's possible that another team would have come along with a better offer that the Jazz would have taken. I don't think so, but I acknowledge it's definitely possible. In my view, that's a risk I would have been willing to take. I would have been comfortable passing on Gobert if another team gave Utah a better offer. That's because the Wolves came into the off-season as a talented young improving team that had just completed a successful 46-win season followed by a solid 1st-round in which they took the 2nd seat in the West to 6 games. As I've noted before, the Gobert deal is the sort of trade you make when you're in the situation the Celtics were in whey they traded for KG. They were stuck in the mud with one 30-year old all-star, Paul Pierce. So they cashed in on future assets to get KG and Ray Allen. They still gave up less than the Wolves gave up for Gobert.

Again, I'm excited about the upcoming season. Assuming no serious injuries to key players, the Wolves are now a lock for the playoffs and in a position to end up in the top 4. Therefore, I can't say the Gobert deal was a dumb one; it's just one I wouldn't have made. And it's interesting that I'll be looking for the same things from the Wolves I would have been looking for without the Gobert deal -- namely the development of our top young talent: Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell, Naz Reid and Josh Minott. I'll also be looking for healthy, productive seasons from Taurean Prince and Kyle Anderson. A healthy Gobert, KAT and even just the Edwards of last year will get us to the playoffs. A better Edwards along with significantly improved play from McDaniels, Nowell and one or two others will make us a contender. Gobert has raised the floor; it's up to these other guys to raise the ceiling. Also, the development of these young guys (I'll add Moore) will take the sting away from the severe depletion of the Wolves draft vault.

[Sundog]

While Capella or Myles Turner may have been cheaper and may have made the Wolves somewhat better, that kind of move would not have kept pace with other Western conference teams. As a result, the Wolves would still have been at the bottom end of playoff teams in the west. Gobert elevates the Wolves in a way that that kind of move, or a trade for Dejounte Murray, would not have.

I've come to love the way this team is constructed, both to maximize KAT's prime, and to get Ant and Jaden the deep playoff experience that they will need to grow and be ready to maximize their respective primes. Toiling away in the 7-10 seeds in the western conference would likely have led to frustration, which in turn could have lead to Ant looking for a new home at some point.

Yes, the downside risk is significant, but you have to love how this team is set to compete with the best teams in the league over the next 3 years, and set up a culture where that kind of success is expected, not just hoped for. Was it worth the draft capital? I don't think that matters anymore -- the deal is done, this is the team we have and I'm excited.

An edit to note that I broke my pledge not to comment on the trade anymore! Ha, sorry about that!

[Lipoli390]

While Capella or Myles Turner may have been cheaper and may have made the Wolves somewhat better, that kind of move would not have kept pace with other Western conference teams. As a result, the Wolves would still have been at the bottom end of playoff teams in the west. Gobert elevates the Wolves in a way that that kind of move, or a trade for Dejounte Murray, would not have.

I've come to love the way this team is constructed, both to maximize KAT's prime, and to get Ant and Jaden the deep playoff experience that they will need to grow and be ready to maximize their respective primes. Toiling away in the 7-10 seeds in the western conference would likely have led to frustration, which in turn could have lead to Ant looking for a new home at some point.

Yes, the downside risk is significant, but you have to love how this team is set to compete with the best teams in the league over the next 3 years, and set up a culture where that kind of success is expected, not just hoped for. Was it worth the draft capital? I don't think that matters anymore -- the deal is done, this is the team we have and I'm excited.

An edit to note that I broke my pledge not to comment on the trade anymore! Ha, sorry about that!

I disagree that the Wolves wouldn't have kept pace with the rest of the West by acquiring Capella or Turner. That premise ignores the likely organic improvement from Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell and even Naz Reid, who are all high-upside players at points in their careers when players tend to improve the most. The addition of Kyle Anderson would have improved the team with or without Gobert. I agree the West will be better overall, but the Wolves organic improvement supplemented with the additions of Anderson and either Capella or Turner would have probably been more than enough to keep pace. And note that not every team in the West will be improving. I don't see any reason to believe the Suns will be better. Utah will be worse. The Mavs without Brunson will likely be worse as well.

I actually think the addition of DeJounte Murray would have elevated the team as much as the addition of Gobert. Murray is a great perimeter defender and also a terrific offensive player who averaged over 20 points and nearly a triple-double last season. He would have combined with Edwards for an incredibly dynamic and stalwart defensive backcourt. And it's only 25 years old with two years left at a salary of around $17M per year. Based on the Atlanta deal, it's clear the Wolves would have also retained meaningful assets that they could have potentially leveraged into another deal for Myles Turner. I can imagine giving up the exactly same assets the Wolves gave up for Gobert and ending up with both Murray and Turner.

But you're right, best to look forward. I've violated my pledge several times already. :)