Wolves Draft Assets For Remainder of Decade

[Lipoli390]

There are seven drafts remaining in this decade (2023-2029). With the dust now settled on the Gobert trade and other trades the Wolves have made, it's clear that the Wolves have severely depleted their bank of draft assets for the next 7 years.

Specifically, the Wolves have only 3 first-round picks and 4 second-round picks in the next seven 7 drafts, although the Wolves might have a 4th first-round pick way out in 2029 if they are one of the top 5 teams in the lottery that year. Two of the Wolves remaining 4 second round picks this decade aren't until 2028 and 2029. In the meantime, the Wolves will be over the luxury tax threshold for at least three of those next 7 years and, therefore, have very little financial flexibility.

What does all this mean? It means that, although mocked for his comment, KAT was spot on when he said it's championship or bust for the Wolves. Shit happens in the NBA. And nobody understands that better than a Wolves fan. Players get hurt, attitudes turn sour, players don't gel together, young players don't develop as expected, etc. Draft picks and financial flexibility are two key tools for adjusting to unforeseen changes in circumstances. As an example, the Nuggets made adroit use of the draft - Porter, Morris, Hyland - to help mitigate the consequences of Murray's ACL injury. And of course, future picks can be used for trades to bring in more experienced players to fill gaps created by injuries, stalled development or unforeseen departures. The Wolves now have very little to work with in their draft vault and will soon have nothing but the taxpayer MLE to add players.

The good news is that the Wolves currently have built a reservoir filled with a lot of young talent under contract - Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Nathan Knight, Wendell Moore, Josh Minott and AJ Lawson. Those seven young players could develop into a really good supporting case around KAT, Rudy and the young Anthony Edwards for the next 5-7 years or serve as trade assets to address player personnel needs that emerge in the next few years as the Wolves try to leverage Gobert's presence as much as possible. But the bottom line is this. If the Wolves haven't made the NBA finals by the end of the 2024-25 season (end of Rudy's 3rd season here) and appear to be permanently stagnated or declining, Connelly will have to consider busting the whole thing up for picks to start over. Hence, KAT's comment that it's championship or bust.

I have a lot of confidence in the development of most of our young players, especially Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell and longer term, Minott. I'm also confident that KAT and Gobert will fit well together. The key, as it always is, will be health. If we can avoid any major injuries to one of our core players (Gobert, KAT, Edwards) that would cause them to miss half or more of the season, we should be good. Nevertheless, we should expect each of those three to miss at least 10 games. Where this team finishes in the standings will turn significantly on how well the Wolves hold up when those three are out with any number of nagging injuries or illness. Even KAT and Edwards are the best of those three, I actually think Gobert's absence will be the hardest to overcome. I think we have enough offensive weapons to hold up for a while without KAT or Edwards, but I don't think we have the defensive weapons to hold up well when Gobert is out of the lineup. That's what concerns me the most and that's why I wanted to Wolves to make better use of that last roster spot than signing Nathan Knight.

[Monster]

Here is how it's laid out. I tried to make it really basic and add the details later except 2029 because that involves giving up either a 1st or 2nd round pick. I put the year of the draft how many picks and then which picks they were.

2023 1 second round draft pick from New York
2024 1 own 1st round pick
2025 0 no picks
2026 2 1st round pick Utah can pick swap*
-second round draft pick from Indiana, Miami or San Antonio (least favorable)
2027 0 no picks
2028 2 own 1st and 2nd round picks
2029 1 Minnesota's 2029 1st round pick to Utah protected for selections 1-5; if this picks falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Minnesota will instead convey its 2029 2nd round pick to Utah [Minnesota-Utah, 7/6/2022]


* This is all unlikely anyways but there is a chance that Utah doesn't have the ability to do the pick swap. I have quoted this from RealGM.

"If Utah has conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for Minnesota's 2026 1st round pick; if Utah has not conveyed its pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its pick protected for selections 9-30 for the Minnesota pick (if the Utah pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then Minnesota's obligation to Utah will be extinguished) [Minnesota-Utah, 7/6/2022]"

"Utah's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-10 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025 and 1-8 in 2026 (if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2026, then Utah's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished) [Oklahoma City-Utah, 7/30/2021; Oklahoma City-Utah, 1/4/2022]"

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

[Q-is-here]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

I largely agree with what you've said here, but I don't see Minnesota trading a 25-year old Anthony Edwards under any circumstances. I also tend to think Karl-Anthony Towns will be here for the remainder of his career, but I admit he'd be a potential trade chip in the scenario you laid out.

Ironically enough, Towns is exactly the kind of big you'd want to pair with Edwards given his ability to stretch the floor and score efficiently without dominating the basketball. I'd actually lean towards this regime continuing to build around Edwards, Towns, and potentially Jaden McDaniels and/or Jaylen Nowell even if the window with Rudy Gobert closed. There's enough youth there to remain in win-now mode.

[Q-is-here]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

I largely agree with what you've said here, but I don't see Minnesota trading a 25-year old Anthony Edwards under any circumstances. I also tend to think Karl-Anthony Towns will be here for the remainder of his career, but I admit he'd be a potential trade chip in the scenario you laid out.

Ironically enough, Towns is exactly the kind of big you'd want to pair with Edwards given his ability to stretch the floor and score efficiently without dominating the basketball. I'd actually lean towards this regime continuing to build around Edwards, Towns, and potentially Jaden McDaniels and/or Jaylen Nowell even if the window with Rudy Gobert closed. There's enough youth there to remain in win-now mode.

But what if one of the reasons we never get past a conference semi-final is because Ant stagnates and pretty much remains the player we saw this past season or just slightly better? Continuing with the Utah example, what if Ant never becomes as good as what Donovan Mitchell is now - and I think most of us agree that even Mitchell is a Tier II vs. Tier I star?

Now if Ant becomes a Tier I star (say, top 7 or 8 type player), then yeah, you don't move him and instead rebuild around him. But if that's the case, you would hope this scenario is all moot. Because a ton would need to go wrong for Ant to be that good and not have success with KAT and Gobert as his tier II guys! I mean, other than injuries, how does that team not at least make it to the Conference Finals or better?

[TheFuture]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

I largely agree with what you've said here, but I don't see Minnesota trading a 25-year old Anthony Edwards under any circumstances. I also tend to think Karl-Anthony Towns will be here for the remainder of his career, but I admit he'd be a potential trade chip in the scenario you laid out.

Ironically enough, Towns is exactly the kind of big you'd want to pair with Edwards given his ability to stretch the floor and score efficiently without dominating the basketball. I'd actually lean towards this regime continuing to build around Edwards, Towns, and potentially Jaden McDaniels and/or Jaylen Nowell even if the window with Rudy Gobert closed. There's enough youth there to remain in win-now mode.

But what if one of the reasons we never get past a conference semi-final is because Ant stagnates and pretty much remains the player we saw this past season or just slightly better? Continuing with the Utah example, what if Ant never becomes as good as what Donovan Mitchell is now - and I think most of us agree that even Mitchell is a Tier II vs. Tier I star?

Now if Ant becomes a Tier I star (say, top 7 or 8 type player), then yeah, you don't move him and instead rebuild around him. But if that's the case, you would hope this scenario is all moot. Because a ton would need to go wrong for Ant to be that good and not have success with KAT and Gobert as his tier II guys! I mean, other than injuries, how does that team not at least make it to the Conference Finals or better?

I don't share the opinion that Mitchell is a star at all. In my opinion, he is the exact player an organization should run from. But I could be proven wrong, we will see when he runs his own show.

[Monster]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

I largely agree with what you've said here, but I don't see Minnesota trading a 25-year old Anthony Edwards under any circumstances. I also tend to think Karl-Anthony Towns will be here for the remainder of his career, but I admit he'd be a potential trade chip in the scenario you laid out.

Ironically enough, Towns is exactly the kind of big you'd want to pair with Edwards given his ability to stretch the floor and score efficiently without dominating the basketball. I'd actually lean towards this regime continuing to build around Edwards, Towns, and potentially Jaden McDaniels and/or Jaylen Nowell even if the window with Rudy Gobert closed. There's enough youth there to remain in win-now mode.

But what if one of the reasons we never get past a conference semi-final is because Ant stagnates and pretty much remains the player we saw this past season or just slightly better? Continuing with the Utah example, what if Ant never becomes as good as what Donovan Mitchell is now - and I think most of us agree that even Mitchell is a Tier II vs. Tier I star?

Now if Ant becomes a Tier I star (say, top 7 or 8 type player), then yeah, you don't move him and instead rebuild around him. But if that's the case, you would hope this scenario is all moot. Because a ton would need to go wrong for Ant to be that good and not have success with KAT and Gobert as his tier II guys! I mean, other than injuries, how does that team not at least make it to the Conference Finals or better?

I don't share the opinion that Mitchell is a star at all. In my opinion, he is the exact player an organization should run from. But I could be proven wrong, we will see when he runs his own show.

Star is subjective and much be defined but I probably agree with you that he isn't a sure fire star. Maybe he can take his game to another level since he still hasn't turned 25 yet. I don't think he is a #1 guy on a championship team and maybe isn't even a #2 depending on the rest of the roster.

How much more of a his own show is he going to run elsewhere? He was 2nd in FGA last year only to Luka and Luka and Morant were the only players taking more shots per minute.

[Monster]

I'm gonna get back to the draft assets or lack thereof. Let's look back at the undrafted players in the past couple years. I'm gonna put down guys that are on NBA rosters right now/show some level of promise of sticking around at least. Some name on here are more legit than others but there will also be at least someone not even on this list that ends up having a worthwhile NBA career. I may have missed some players as I am just going off what Wikipedia has for 2018 and 2019. 2019 so far has a pretty impressive class of players so I wouldn't expect that every year.

2018
Drew Eubanks
Kendrick Nunn
Wayne Gabriel
Jordan McLaughlin
Duncan Robinson
Jae'shaun Tate
Kendrich Williams

2019

Oshae Brissett
Moses Brown
Amir Coffey
Terrance Davis
Lu Dort
John Konchar
Caleb Martin
Garrison Matthews
Max Straus
Dean Wade
Lindell Wigginton

Just as an example AJ Lawson just turned 22. At the end of Gobert's deal if he actually is a worthwhile player and stays with the Wolves he will have just turned 26 so there is still a chance he could improve some becoming a better version of whatever he is. Of course it's more likely he isn't even in the league but I just picked him as an example of how in 4 years a guy would still be pretty young. The Wolves have players younger than Lawson with more likeliness of being worthwhile NBA players.

One reason I think that teams are willing to deal picks is the G-league and 2-way players. You literally have 2 more roster spots than you used to. You have a whole g-league team to develop players. In addition it's not just your g-league team developing guys both 2-way guys and other players but so are other franchises. Every year there are going to be players that might be worthwhile NBA players that the team affiliated with the G-league roster doesn't have room on the NBA roster for whatever reason. Sometimes it will be lack of roster spot. Sometimes the team already has their fill of guys at that position and has a different need. Maybe you don't find/develop the player this year but Atlanta or Utah or whoever finds 2 or 3 of them that you can sign. The whole league benefits and more talent is recognized developed etc. with the G-league it's also very accessible.

You also don't have to call a guy playing in some other country or independent league like the CBA used to be. Naz Reid and Jordan McLaughlin are examples of how a team can add worthwhile talent and they are kinda 2 different paths of players. McLaughlin was a good college player that played oh his college time but didn't get drafted. Naz left early and was a potential guy and got and opportunity and performed right away. Naz probably could have been a guy that developed for a couple years before coming onto the scene but yeah. There is simply more ways to add to your roster than ever before and more talent.

Meanwhile for playoff teams instead of drafting a player in the late 20's or in some cases a 2nd rounder you can sign a reasonably promising player out of the G-league that may be more ready to contribute than the rookie you could have drafted. In contrast to the first round picks that type of guy will be cheaper possibly much cheaper and the risk of having them have guaranteed money is lower too.

Of course there are also the "2nd draft" guys who don't really work out for their original teams or whatever teams ended up with them via trade leave after their rookie deals and can be signed for cheap and can end up being contributors. We have seen some of these type of guys recently take less money to go to contending teams to find a role.

Clearly it's better to have a draft pick than not have one. On the other hand if you are smart, savvy and can identify and develop talent you can add it various ways. Keep in mind Connelly in Denver tended to have too deep of a roster and was trading guys away. Even with the lack of draft picks that might still happen if he and the Wolves continue to find and develop talent. This could allow them to restock draft Capital and/or make a move for another more established player.

[TheFuture]

That's right Lip. I think in the "or bust" scenario, we can look at Utah as a real-time example. Utah has made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and have never gotten past the Semis. It was a nice run with a lot of regular season wins, but they just never got good enough to make a serious title run. So they traded Gobert and are now dangling Mitchell out there.

If that's us in four years - where let's say we never advance past a conference Semi-Final, - I could see us letting Gobert walk and looking to trade KAT and/or Ant to re-build.

I largely agree with what you've said here, but I don't see Minnesota trading a 25-year old Anthony Edwards under any circumstances. I also tend to think Karl-Anthony Towns will be here for the remainder of his career, but I admit he'd be a potential trade chip in the scenario you laid out.

Ironically enough, Towns is exactly the kind of big you'd want to pair with Edwards given his ability to stretch the floor and score efficiently without dominating the basketball. I'd actually lean towards this regime continuing to build around Edwards, Towns, and potentially Jaden McDaniels and/or Jaylen Nowell even if the window with Rudy Gobert closed. There's enough youth there to remain in win-now mode.

But what if one of the reasons we never get past a conference semi-final is because Ant stagnates and pretty much remains the player we saw this past season or just slightly better? Continuing with the Utah example, what if Ant never becomes as good as what Donovan Mitchell is now - and I think most of us agree that even Mitchell is a Tier II vs. Tier I star?

Now if Ant becomes a Tier I star (say, top 7 or 8 type player), then yeah, you don't move him and instead rebuild around him. But if that's the case, you would hope this scenario is all moot. Because a ton would need to go wrong for Ant to be that good and not have success with KAT and Gobert as his tier II guys! I mean, other than injuries, how does that team not at least make it to the Conference Finals or better?

I don't share the opinion that Mitchell is a star at all. In my opinion, he is the exact player an organization should run from. But I could be proven wrong, we will see when he runs his own show.

Star is subjective and much be defined but I probably agree with you that he isn't a sure fire star. Maybe he can take his game to another level since he still hasn't turned 25 yet. I don't think he is a #1 guy on a championship team and maybe isn't even a #2 depending on the rest of the roster.

How much more of a his own show is he going to run elsewhere? He was 2nd in FGA last year only to Luka and Luka and Morant were the only players taking more shots per minute.

Having a game altering defensive star since the outset of your nba career is one. Never has had to focus on that end. Then had the audacity to not pass the ball, get pissed at the guy covering for all your shortcomings, and ask out after being signed to a lucrative contract. We got the better player out of Utah.

We all knew KAT was what he was, I only hope Gobert doesn't stop Ant and Jaden from pushing on their defensive chops.

[Q-is-here]

Was Gordon Hayward a star just before he left Utah? I would say he definitely qualified as a tier II star. Well, exit Gordon Hayward and enter Donovan Mitchell. Basically the Jazz don't miss a beat. Now we can quibble about Michell's shortcomings as a player and team mate, but on paper, he most certainly would be considered a "star" and has been selected to the all-star team three times.

My broader point is that if a Hayward/Gobert/Favors trio or Mitchell/Gobert/Conley trio can't get to the Conference Finals, then I find that a good point of comparison in the event an Ant/KAT/Gobert trio can't do it either. Since KAT is clearly more valuable than either Favors or Conley and Gobert is still Rudy Gobert, then the only way this doesn't work is if Ant stagnates and never even reaches a Hayward or Mitchell level of production and efficiency.

It all comes down to Ant yet again! He's the X-factor here.