Jaden McDaniels

[FNG]

Jaden is one of the most interesting prospects the Wolves have had. The consensus here is that he is likely to be either a nice starter for us going forward, or a piece that brings back Ben Simmons. He's intriguing enough to warrant his own thread...either to discuss his progress if he stays, or to argue about whether he should be given up.

I should admit up front that I thought I was one of his biggest supporters here as the season progressed...I really liked what I saw on the court. He seemed wise beyond his teenage years and displayed exceptional footwork on defense. I agree with the consensus here that he appears to be a steal as a late first rounder and the de facto starter at SF if he stays.

But I wonder if the gap between our eye test and actual production is as wide as with any other player. Let's look at his per 36 stats his rookie season, compared to rookie per 36 stats of Player B

Jaden: 10.2 points, 5.5 rebounds. 1.7 assists, .8 steals, ORtg 108, DRtg 116. DRPM -.50

Player B: 11.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, ORtg 101, DRtg 113, DRPM -.51

The players' statistics look almost identical...below average offensively and defensively. Most of us would agree that Player B, who happens to be Josh Okogie, is certainly below average offensively, but think of him as being above average on defense. But few of us would describe Jaden as below average on both offense and defense, and I would argue nobody here would have thought their gross rookie stats would be identical.

The biggest difference in the two players is three-point shooting...Jaden made 36.4% of his threes his rookie year, Josh only 27.9%. And as a result of that one aspect of their respective games, Jaden is a much more efficient shooter...55.2% vs 49.2%. It should be noted though since Josh is a much better free throw shooter than Jaden, his TS% in his second and third seasons are again almost identical to Jaden's, despite showing no improvement beyond the arc.

So if their rookie stats are practically indistinguishable, why is Josh largely maligned here while Jaden is considered too talented a player to consider in a trade for Ben Simmons? Is the gap in 3-point shooting between the two so significant to negate all of the other data?

I think the answer comes down to two factors: the eye test, and reputation. In my opinion the eye test tells me Jaden is the far more talented player. He plays under control, always seems to be in the right place on defense, and can be relied upon to hit the open three. Josh on the other hand often seems out of control at both ends of the court. He is at times an excellent on-ball defender, but also often seems out of place on defense.

But there is a big difference between the two in reputation. Jaden was considered a top 10 prospect coming out of high school, while Josh was not highly regarded. But then oddly Jaden stunk in his freshman year in college, while Josh put up relatively strong stats. Josh even outperformed Jaden on threes in college 38% to 34%! But still the pedigree tells us Jaden has far greater potential than Josh, despite the almost identical rookie stats and Josh's superior college performance.

I think we can agree that an objective observer would look at Jaden's college and rookie year stats, and be stunned that we would even think twice about including him in a deal with Ben Simmons. So are the statistics complete irrelevant when it comes to evaluating Jaden McDaniels, or are we overvaluing him too much here?

[AbeVigodaLive]

He's promising. He's impressed EVERYBODY at some point. We've all talked about the footwork, the length, the ability to defend, the apparent ability to hit some three pointers, even some of his passing chops... and his much ballyhooed promise as a former top recruit.

The rub is that virtually every team in the league has a guy like Jaden McDaniels. They show a ton of promise, too. Some pan out wonderfully. Some are a mixed bag. Could go either way with McDaniels (and many others).

We just haven't had (m)any Jaden McDaniels types (drafted low), so we're new to this and IMO overvaluing him as a result.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Context is a wonderful thing. I agree with you here, FNG. Jaden McDaniels is an intriguing young talent, but the hype does not match the production. He's even drawn comparisons to Scottie Pippen by Wolves faithful. McDaniels is almost certainly more potential than proven contributions at this point. I would not let him be the deal-breaker in a trade for Ben Simmons, but I still think there's a slim chance of pulling off a trade without him included.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the hype is mostly warranted - not the Scottie Pippen level hype of course - but the "he could be an elite role player" hype is legit.

First off, the comparison to Okogie seems a bit off since one was a gangly rookie with one year of college experience and the other was a fully physically developed rookie with two years of college experience. In fact, the bigger story there is why the hell has Okogie not improved a lick!? Never has there been a bigger disconnect between college shooting track record and NBA shooting.

Second, I think McD's physical profile bodes well for future improvement. It's one thing for McDaniels to have come into the NBA with a fully matured body and average positional measurements. But that's not the case with him. He has elite length (and appears to still be growing - he's taller than KAT now according to Dane Moore) and elite lateral foot speed. This allows him to smother smaller perimeter players while also providing some weakside shot blocking. That combination is very rare and gives him a really high ceiling defensively. And he's likely to add more weight and fill out his frame more which will only make him even better.

Lastly, he appears to have a solid b-ball IQ, as some of you have previously mentioned. We've seen our fair share of very gifted players that lacked in b-ball IQ over the years. He seems to "get it" and that will only improve as he fills into his body and gets more experience.

I also think that if we include McDaniels in a trade for Simmons, we're basically taking one step forward and one step back on defense. I definitely wouldn't want him included.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

He's promising. He's impressed EVERYBODY at some point. We've all talked about the footwork, the length, the ability to defend, the apparent ability to hit some three pointers, even some of his passing chops... and his much ballyhooed promise as a former top recruit.

The rub is that virtually every team in the league has a guy like Jaden McDaniels. They show a ton of promise, too. Some pan out wonderfully. Some are a mixed bag. Could go either way with McDaniels (and many others).

We just haven't had (m)any Jaden McDaniels types (drafted low), so we're new to this and IMO overvaluing him as a result.

I'm not so sure about this. Per my above post, I think he offers a very rare combination of physical gifts that are elite even among NBA peers. Obviously he needs to get stronger and hone his technique, but his ceiling defensively and ability to see over a defense on offense kind of puts him in a unique category. I think it's all going to come down to his work ethic and avoiding the big, bad injuries. If he can check those last two boxes, I believe he can be an elite role player and invaluable cog on a playoff team.

[FNG]

Some interesting takes here, and I expect this to be a robust thread if Jaden remains a Timberwolf.

Q, I only provide the comparison to Okogie to highlight Jaden's relatively meagre production his rookie year. It's true that Josh had one more year of college (both years of which were decidedly more productive than Jaden's one year), but I'm not convinced that's of great significance. Your point about the physical differences between the two though is well taken. Jaden's length and mobility certainly are reasons for optimism. But still, I struggle to understand why his rookie stats were so unimpressive, and question whether he will make great strides this year...I wish I had seen evidence of a big leap forward when he was featured in Summer League, but he wasn't even able to make the all Summer League team.

Abe suggests that many teams have a promising player like Jaden that they are excited about, but I am with Q in questioning that. I would have a difficult time naming 5 rookie or second year players with Jaden's physical attributes who were also considered top 10 prospects in high school.

I continue to hope for Cam's predicted outcome...completing a deal for Simmons without losing Jaden. But if Philly insists on him in a deal, I'm not going to let his admitted promise get in the way.

[AbeVigodaLive]

He's promising. He's impressed EVERYBODY at some point. We've all talked about the footwork, the length, the ability to defend, the apparent ability to hit some three pointers, even some of his passing chops... and his much ballyhooed promise as a former top recruit.

The rub is that virtually every team in the league has a guy like Jaden McDaniels. They show a ton of promise, too. Some pan out wonderfully. Some are a mixed bag. Could go either way with McDaniels (and many others).

We just haven't had (m)any Jaden McDaniels types (drafted low), so we're new to this and IMO overvaluing him as a result.

I'm not so sure about this. Per my above post, I think he offers a very rare combination of physical gifts that are elite even among NBA peers. Obviously he needs to get stronger and hone his technique, but his ceiling defensively and ability to see over a defense on offense kind of puts him in a unique category. I think it's all going to come down to his work ethic and avoiding the big, bad injuries. If he can check those last two boxes, I believe he can be an elite role player and invaluable cog on a playoff team.

I'm not suggesting that those other guys are a one-to-one comparison to him defensively or via size.

I'm suggesting that there are many young guys around the league that "can be an elite role player and invaluable cog on a playoff team" if they pan out.

And that the Wolves as the league's worst team ever have had so few of those guys that McDaniels stands out that much more... and many might be overvaluing McDaniels compared to those promising guys on other teams as a result.

[Monster]

Most of this board were not really big on the McDaniels pick because he didn't show he was a good basketball player in college etc. Then he comes into his rookie year at 19 and does basically all the right stuff although doesn't put up super sexy stats and it's almost like some people are willing to knock him for it. It's Iike he is the opposite of other talented guys we have seen in the past who have flashes of awesomeness along with boneheaded head scratching plays sometimes within seconds of each other. McDaniels seems to have sort of figured out as a young player how to play a role and do it reasonably well. I think that's pretty significant especially with some of the scorers/players on the roster.

Honestly I'm not sure there is much new to be said about McDaniels that hasn't been discussed on this board already. I know everyone here will be excited to see him play this season if he is wearing a Timberwolves uniform. Some people are tempering expectations or how he should be valued in a trade but I believe everyone is a fan of him.

I will also say that if he really is as tall as it seems there may be a day where him playing as a full time PF makes sense. I hope that the Wolves are able to keep him as a SF because that may mean they have found or acquired a good player/s next to Towns but with more length a path to PF seems more possible now than a few months ago. It would be something if Vanderbilt became a starting level player as he and McDaniels could be quite the combo as the forwards defensively.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Wings/Forwards on Rookie Deals:

- Atlanta Hawks: DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, Jalen Johnson

- Boston Celtics: Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith

- Brooklyn Nets: N/A

- Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, James Bouknight, Jalen McDaniels

- Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams, Troy Brown, Ayo Dosunmu

- Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler

- Dallas Mavericks: Josh Green

- Denver Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr., P.J. Dozier

- Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, Zhaire Smith

- Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Jordan Poole

- Houston Rockets: Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Kenyon Martin Jr.

- Indiana Pacers: Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson

- Los Angeles Clippers: Keon Johnson, Terance Mann, Brandon Boston Jr.

- Los Angeles Lakers: N/A

- Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jarrett Culver, Ziaire Williams, Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman

- Miami Heat: Tyler Herro, KZ Okpala

- Milwaukee Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo, Jordan Nwora

- Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Josh Okogie, Leandro Bolmaro, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell

- New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Trey Murphy

- New York Knicks: RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes

- Oklahoma City Thunder: Josh Giddey, Aleksej Poku?evski, Darius Bazley, Lu Dort

- Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Chuma Okeke, RJ Hampton

- Philadelphia 76ers: Matisse Thybulle, Jaden Springer, Shake Milton, Isaiah Joe, Paul Reed

- Phoenix Suns: Mikal Bridges, Jalen Smith, Cameron Johnson, Landry Shamet

- Portland Trail Blazers: Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little

- Sacramento Kings: Davion Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, Jahmi'us Ramsey, Robert Woodard

- San Antonio Spurs: Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell, Josh Primo, Keldon Johnson

- Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa

- Utah Jazz: Jared Butler

- Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert

What's the overall point here in putting this together? There's a bunch of very talented, high-ceiling wings/forwards throughout the league. They vary in quality, of course, but they are abundant. McDaniels is special to Wolves fans, but that's about it. Anywhere else and he'd be another young piece that needs seasoning. In Minnesota he's a rising star and has a Hall of Fame ceiling. Like I've said all along, we should pump the brakes on him.

[Porckchop]

His production and potential are relative to where he was drafted in my eyes. It's not like he was a lottery pick. But he's shown glimpses that make me believe he'll be considered a steal looking back in a few years.
Okogie hasn't shown any improvement or potential.