This thread is intended to speculate on what we think the Wolves front office is likely to do this offseason. It's not meant to suggest what any of us think they SHOULD do. The question is: which players on the current Wolves roster are most likely to be traded this offseason and which ones are least likely to be traded?
WON'T BE TRADED
1. KAT - There is zero chance of him being traded this offseason
2. Ant - Also zero chance of him being traded
3. DLO - Unlikely to be traded, but slim chance. He was Rosas's guy. So hard to see him getting dealt
4. McDaniels - Slight chance he gets dealt as part of package for a John Collins, but unlikely.
5. Okogie - Seems to have a strong bond with Finch and teammates. Defensive gem with team-friendly contract on poor defensive team. Won't cost a lot to re-sign after next season. Still young with offensive upside. Don't see the Wolves trading him.
MIGHT BE TRADED
1. Rubio - His late-season resurgence and expiring contract give him value. Our backcourt is crowded
2. Beasley - Wolves most valuable trade asset other than KAT, Ant and JMac. Rosas inclined to keep, but...
3. Naz Reid - Another valuable trade asset, but valuable to Wolves on cheap contract.
4. Layman - Good enough with cheap contract to have trade value
WILL BE TRADED
1. Culver - I don't see him returning. Rosas will probably try to package him with Ricky or Beasley in a bigger trade for a John Collins or Myles Turner. Otherwise, I see them dealing him for a 2nd-round or maybe late 1st round pick.
Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
WILL NOT/SHOULD NOT be traded:
1. McDaniels...I put him here for a reason. An actual 3 and D wing that already can shoot the ball and knows how to play defense might be the hardest position to fill for the Wolves. Keep this kid and run the offense thru him during summer league. Rosas needs to keep this guy around at all costs.
2. Edwards is the preferred face of the franchise for me going forward. He has a skillset that fits pretty much any offense and his defense will improve with more coaching.
May be traded:
1. KAT, his whining and complaining needs to stop. I find it hard to cheer for a crybaby no matter how freaking good he is. If he could just mature he would move to Should not be traded, but jeez Louise stop bitching.
2. Naz Reid is a valuable member of the team and is basically a Should not trade, but this team isn't that great and needs improvements. Can he be replaced by another player that is on a team friendly contract?
Needs to be traded:
Everyone else is trade fodder if it brings in players that can change the direction of the team.
1. McDaniels...I put him here for a reason. An actual 3 and D wing that already can shoot the ball and knows how to play defense might be the hardest position to fill for the Wolves. Keep this kid and run the offense thru him during summer league. Rosas needs to keep this guy around at all costs.
2. Edwards is the preferred face of the franchise for me going forward. He has a skillset that fits pretty much any offense and his defense will improve with more coaching.
May be traded:
1. KAT, his whining and complaining needs to stop. I find it hard to cheer for a crybaby no matter how freaking good he is. If he could just mature he would move to Should not be traded, but jeez Louise stop bitching.
2. Naz Reid is a valuable member of the team and is basically a Should not trade, but this team isn't that great and needs improvements. Can he be replaced by another player that is on a team friendly contract?
Needs to be traded:
Everyone else is trade fodder if it brings in players that can change the direction of the team.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
D'Natagal wrote:WILL NOT/SHOULD NOT be traded:
1. McDaniels...I put him here for a reason. An actual 3 and D wing that already can shoot the ball and knows how to play defense might be the hardest position to fill for the Wolves. Keep this kid and run the offense thru him during summer league. Rosas needs to keep this guy around at all costs.
2. Edwards is the preferred face of the franchise for me going forward. He has a skillset that fits pretty much any offense and his defense will improve with more coaching.
May be traded:
1. KAT, his whining and complaining needs to stop. I find it hard to cheer for a crybaby no matter how freaking good he is. If he could just mature he would move to Should not be traded, but jeez Louise stop bitching.
2. Naz Reid is a valuable member of the team and is basically a Should not trade, but this team isn't that great and needs improvements. Can he be replaced by another player that is on a team friendly contract?
Needs to be traded:
Everyone else is trade fodder if it brings in players that can change the direction of the team.
I was trying to limit this thread to who WILL or WILL not be traded, rather than who SHOULD/SHOULD NOT. :) But it's always fun to talk about the should question too.
I get your reaction to KAT's whining and immaturity. But he's a superstar. Jokic is the only other big man in the League who can do what KAT does offensively and as a rebounder. I think KAT's whining and overall personality have distorted the perception of some local fans to the point of missing just how great he is.
Having said that, I've always had doubts about building a contender around KAT as our sole #1. But with Ant, KAT can now be our #2 or more accurately our #1b. As for KAT's whining and immaturity, I'll note that a lot of top NBA players do a lot of whining. Moreover, KAT isn't nearly as immature as a lot of NBA players. KAT works hard, plays hard, supports his teammates, doesn't disrespect his coaches and stays out of trouble off the court. If you want an example of immaturity, take a look at Malik Beasley's antics last off-season. There are guys like Kyrie Irving who just take games off when they feel like it. That's what I call immaturity - a child-like selfishness. Finally, it's highly unlikely the Wolves would get a comparable talent in return for KAT - certainly not someone who could be a #2 or 1b on a championship contender with Ant. If the Wolves end up trading him, it will be for a number of future high draft picks in the hope that the team hits the mark on one of them as a #2 for Ant.
As for the everyone else, I don't think we need to make trades to "change the direction of the team." I think the last couple months of the season showed that this team is actually headed in the right direction as Ant began to adapt to the League, KAT got healthy, DLO returned and, importantly, we finally had a competent (actually a really good) head coach. So for me, we shouldn't be looking for big deals to "change the team's trajectory." We should be looking more surgically for deals or acquisitions that nudge us further and faster in the direction we're already headed.
As I see it, we need a defensive big to play next to KAT. That guy doesn't have to be an all-star caliber player or even a two-way player; he just needs to be a defensive stopper, preferably a rim protector although a Paul Millsap or Rodman type would be OK too. I can see a contender forming around DLO, Ant, McDaniels, KAT and a defensive big as our starters with Beasley, Naz and Okogie as our key guys off the bench. If we're unable to land a defensive big via trade or free agency, I like the potential of Vanderbilt as a Rodman type high-energy defender.
I'd like to see the Wolves deal Culver for a future pick, even if it's a 2nd rounder, to free up some salary space for more room to maneuver in free agency. If we can parley Ricky, Culver and Layman into a defensive big, that would be ideal. I'd be reluctant to deal Beasley. He's looking like a 3-point marksman, which every contending team needs, and he's also on a fairly reasonable contract. Also, unlike a number of 3-point marksmen, Beasley is an athletic player who can run the floor, finish above the rim and rebound really well at his position.
Overall, I think many of us tend to undervalue the talent we have because of how poorly the team has performed since Butler left. But we need to keep in mind that this team's head coach during that time was a guy who had no business coaching any NBA team. We also need to keep in mind that KAT has been injured or sick during a huge swath of that time period and that DLO has been hurt for significant stretches during that time frame as well. Moreover, we need to remember just how young this team is. Ant and McDaniels are only beginning to scratch the surface of their abilities. We could probably say the same thing about Naz Reid and Vanderbilt. Beasley is still only 24 years old and hasn't played a lot of minutes before coming here, so he has a lot of remaining upside. I don't want to oversell what we have here. But I do think we have a playoff caliber roster with the potential to be much more with the development of Ant and McDaniels as well as some improvement from the still young KAT and DLO.
As for immaturity, it appears that we have a head coach who is going to hold everyone accountable, including our best players. I don't think we'll se as much whining from KAT. In fact, we already saw less of that from him late last season.
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Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
I generally agree with your list Lip.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
I generally agree with your list also Lip.
A couple things somewhat related to Lip's thread here:
1. It seems unlikely that this would happen but J-Mac would be eligible to sign a 3rd season as a 2-way player. The market would have to be pretty bad for him to do that and the Wolves would have to not offer him a vet min deal as a qualifying offer to make him a RFA.
2. Let's say the Wolves keep their pick that means they will be over the Lux tax and would HAVE to make a trade of a chunk of salary just to get under or close enough but that would mean they couldn't add any FAs either. Would you consider just paying the Lux tax this year and plan to stay under the following year? That might be reasonable and smart to do so.
3. I read some fan takes on what they thought they could get for Kevin Knox...it was amusing the value they though he had. I continue to be less than optimistic that we will get any positive value for Culver where he isn't in a larger package of players. I would guess he is likely to be moved this offseason.
4. I'd guess Bolmaro isn't going to be traded but what kind of trade value would you put on him at this point.
5. I think Beasley is the best easiest moveable asset on team so it's possible he will be moved. Personally I think it has to be a no-brainer deal for me to move that asset right now. Honestly I don't see where that type of deal materializes. I will not be shocked if the Wolves don't solve their PF problem this offseason and kinda have to run in back/sign a FA to help that spot.
A couple things somewhat related to Lip's thread here:
1. It seems unlikely that this would happen but J-Mac would be eligible to sign a 3rd season as a 2-way player. The market would have to be pretty bad for him to do that and the Wolves would have to not offer him a vet min deal as a qualifying offer to make him a RFA.
2. Let's say the Wolves keep their pick that means they will be over the Lux tax and would HAVE to make a trade of a chunk of salary just to get under or close enough but that would mean they couldn't add any FAs either. Would you consider just paying the Lux tax this year and plan to stay under the following year? That might be reasonable and smart to do so.
3. I read some fan takes on what they thought they could get for Kevin Knox...it was amusing the value they though he had. I continue to be less than optimistic that we will get any positive value for Culver where he isn't in a larger package of players. I would guess he is likely to be moved this offseason.
4. I'd guess Bolmaro isn't going to be traded but what kind of trade value would you put on him at this point.
5. I think Beasley is the best easiest moveable asset on team so it's possible he will be moved. Personally I think it has to be a no-brainer deal for me to move that asset right now. Honestly I don't see where that type of deal materializes. I will not be shocked if the Wolves don't solve their PF problem this offseason and kinda have to run in back/sign a FA to help that spot.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
monsterpile wrote:I generally agree with your list also Lip.
A couple things somewhat related to Lip's thread here:
1. It seems unlikely that this would happen but J-Mac would be eligible to sign a 3rd season as a 2-way player. The market would have to be pretty bad for him to do that and the Wolves would have to not offer him a vet min deal as a qualifying offer to make him a RFA.
2. Let's say the Wolves keep their pick that means they will be over the Lux tax and would HAVE to make a trade of a chunk of salary just to get under or close enough but that would mean they couldn't add any FAs either. Would you consider just paying the Lux tax this year and plan to stay under the following year? That might be reasonable and smart to do so.
3. I read some fan takes on what they thought they could get for Kevin Knox...it was amusing the value they though he had. I continue to be less than optimistic that we will get any positive value for Culver where he isn't in a larger package of players. I would guess he is likely to be moved this offseason.
4. I'd guess Bolmaro isn't going to be traded but what kind of trade value would you put on him at this point.
5. I think Beasley is the best easiest moveable asset on team so it's possible he will be moved. Personally I think it has to be a no-brainer deal for me to move that asset right now. Honestly I don't see where that type of deal materializes. I will not be shocked if the Wolves don't solve their PF problem this offseason and kinda have to run in back/sign a FA to help that spot.
1. Interesting thought on JMac. I'm a big JMac fan and would like to see the Wolves offer him a vet minimum contract since I doubt we'll be able to keep him for a third year on a two-way.
2. I don't think the Wolves should allow themselves to exceed the luxury-tax threshold. That should be absolutely forbidden for a lottery team. I doubt the Wolves will end up in the top three. So the Wolves should be able to stay under the luxury tax and still sign Bolmaro, but they'll have almost no flexibility to sign a meaningful free agent. Trading Ricky seems like the best and surest way to open up salary space to maneuver effectively in free agency,
3. I wouldn't be interested in Knox, but I can see a team trading a second-round pick for him. I think the same is true of Culver. I'm convinced that the Wolves can probably unload Culver's $6.5M for a 2nd round pick and clear salary space.
4. I think Bolmaro could get a future top-20 protected first round pick. He could certainly command at least a 2nd round pick. I think his greatest trade value would be as part of a package in a bigger trade for a major player. I wouldn't deal him if I were Rosas. I see him as a keeper.
5. I agree with you on Beasley. He's definitely are most valuable trade asset, but like you, it would have to be a no-brained deal to entice me if I were Rosas.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
I will wait to do this until after the lottery. If we keep our pick i think everyone outside of KAT and Ant will be on the table
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
kekgeek1 wrote:I will wait to do this until after the lottery. If we keep our pick i think everyone outside of KAT and Ant will be on the table
That would change the dynamic.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
lipoli390 wrote:monsterpile wrote:I generally agree with your list also Lip.
A couple things somewhat related to Lip's thread here:
1. It seems unlikely that this would happen but J-Mac would be eligible to sign a 3rd season as a 2-way player. The market would have to be pretty bad for him to do that and the Wolves would have to not offer him a vet min deal as a qualifying offer to make him a RFA.
2. Let's say the Wolves keep their pick that means they will be over the Lux tax and would HAVE to make a trade of a chunk of salary just to get under or close enough but that would mean they couldn't add any FAs either. Would you consider just paying the Lux tax this year and plan to stay under the following year? That might be reasonable and smart to do so.
3. I read some fan takes on what they thought they could get for Kevin Knox...it was amusing the value they though he had. I continue to be less than optimistic that we will get any positive value for Culver where he isn't in a larger package of players. I would guess he is likely to be moved this offseason.
4. I'd guess Bolmaro isn't going to be traded but what kind of trade value would you put on him at this point.
5. I think Beasley is the best easiest moveable asset on team so it's possible he will be moved. Personally I think it has to be a no-brainer deal for me to move that asset right now. Honestly I don't see where that type of deal materializes. I will not be shocked if the Wolves don't solve their PF problem this offseason and kinda have to run in back/sign a FA to help that spot.
1. Interesting thought on JMac. I'm a big JMac fan and would like to see the Wolves offer him a vet minimum contract since I doubt we'll be able to keep him for a third year on a two-way.
2. I don't think the Wolves should allow themselves to exceed the luxury-tax threshold. That should be absolutely forbidden for a lottery team. I doubt the Wolves will end up in the top three. So the Wolves should be able to stay under the luxury tax and still sign Bolmaro, but they'll have almost no flexibility to sign a meaningful free agent. Trading Ricky seems like the best and surest way to open up salary space to maneuver effectively in free agency,
3. I wouldn't be interested in Knox, but I can see a team trading a second-round pick for him. I think the same is true of Culver. I'm convinced that the Wolves can probably unload Culver's $6.5M for a 2nd round pick and clear salary space.
4. I think Bolmaro could get a future top-20 protected first round pick. He could certainly command at least a 2nd round pick. I think his greatest trade value would be as part of a package in a bigger trade for a major player. I wouldn't deal him if I were Rosas. I see him as a keeper.
5. I agree with you on Beasley. He's definitely are most valuable trade asset, but like you, it would have to be a no-brained deal to entice me if I were Rosas.
More information on J-Mac as I noticed looking at wolves team salary on basketball insiders that his qualifying offer would be non-guaranteed.
From Larry Coon CBA FAQ question 82.
"If the player played two or three years on Two-Way contracts with the same team, the qualifying offer is a standard NBA contract at the minimum salary, with no bonuses of any kind, and with the Two-Way salary guaranteed. This also applies if the player is no longer eligible to sign a Two-Way contract."
So all it would cost the Wolves to make J-Mac a RFA is around 84,000 and that's if J-Mac signed that 1 year vet min offer. Note that if J-Mac signed a 2 way contract this coming season the Wolves would be able to make the same qualifying offer next season. J-Mac made a little over 500K this year as 2-way guys got paid prorated vet min salary for each game over 50 they played. It's a bit of a shame he didn't get to play a few more games than 51. Ultimately the Wolves still have a lot of leverage and J-Mac was just ok this season and just turned 25 so I'm not sure the market for him will be as strong as it was last season. Keep in mind an offer for a RFA has to be at least 2 years so I kinda doubt any team is gonna come in with a 2 year fully guaranteed offer. It's going to have some sort of non-guarantee the 2nd season and the Wolves might match that type of a deal. I want the Wolves to bring J-Mac back but it's not Uber critical IMO but they are still in the drivers seat it looks like in terms of keeping him.
I get your position on not paying the Luxury tax but ultimately the goal is to put together a good team. So you are telling me if a team called and said I'll trade you our 3rd overall pick for nothing you wouldn't take it if it put us over the Luxury tax? If the Wolves Lee their pick which was the scenario I proposed to you...as much as I believe a guy like Rubio has value I worry the Wolves will have to pay in assets to get below the luxury tax and a lottery team should absolutely not be doing that right? In 2022 the Wolves have Rubio, Culver, Juancho and Layman as players who's deals can be so they should be pretty comfortably under the tax. It's Lux money for 1 year it's not like we are giving up some sort of significant assets basketballwise.
Lets look at some other possible (although unlikely) scenarios. Lets say there were no takers for culver or Rubio and we needed to get below the Lux tax. One option would be to waive and stretch guys. If I was able to do that so their (whatever players I needed to cut to get below the Lux tax) parts of their salaries would count just this year and next year I would be somewhat tempted to do that. Unfortunately it looks like it would have to be 2021,2022 and 2023. One other consideration is that there is offset money if a player signs for more than the vet min salary. So let's say just for fun that the Wolves cut Rubio and stretched him. Then let's say (for fun lol) the Knicks signed him for 6 million. Around 4 million would be the difference between the vet min and his salary and the offset would be half that. I dislike stretching guys but if it meant staying under the Lux tax I might consider doing it with a guy of a salary of Culver or Juancho. To be honest I might be more inclined to pay a 2nd round pick if a team would take them than pay that 6-7 million and I like 2nd round picks. It's just money but that's a lot of it for a 2nd round pick.
It's also worth remembering that the Wolves have to have a certain amount of players on the roster as their is a roster charge. I know personally sometimes it's easy to forget that.
There is also in season moves too. There are no guarantees that you can make a move as Rubio could get hurt or whatever but just because you head into a season over the tax doesn't mean you can't still get under. If the Wolves Keep their pick I'll be less concerned with the Lux tax and more hoping they take the right guy.
Re: Wolves Offseason - Who Will and Won’t Be Traded
Beasley is the most tradeable asset in terms of contract vs talent. The problem is that other teams are going to want a discount because he will be fresh out of jail. I don't believe it's a smart time to start trying to deal him, it will just look like were trying to get off him and teams will smell the opportunity to fleece us. The only other players who are really tradeable are Rubio and Naz. Don't know they want to move Naz, and Rubio doesn't have a ton of value beyond an expiring contract. I say make marginal moves unless we keep our pick and can land a star, then if we stink at the trade deadline next year, which is a reasonably possible scenario, we make a big move and trade Kat. If we're not competitive by next year's trade deadline, we have to come around to the possibility that it will never work with Kat as our lead pony.