On paper how many teams..
On paper how many teams..
In the west are the Wolves definitively better than? This forum has been more positive this off-season than any I can remember in recent years. Does the potential of the youngsters inspire the hope or are there teams you see taking big steps backwards?
Re: On paper how many teams..
I can take a stab at this:
1) The growth of our young players. Our rookies, Edwards and McDaniels, both displayed growth throughout the season and have shown the promise of being pretty special players. Even Vando had a mini-breakout season showing how he can be a positive contributor on the floor.
2) The addition of what seems to be a competent head coach with leadership traits. While I and a few others had hopes Ryan could "develop" into a competent head coach, we were clearly wrong, or at least vastly underestimated his timeline. Everything Finch has said and done thus far has helped the majority here have confidence that he will give the players their best chance to succeed.
3) The roster moves. The Wolves 10-man rotation that showed promise towards the end of the season will have 3 new faces to start next season: Beasley replaces Rubio, Beverly replaces McLaughlin, and Prince replaces Junacho. Each one of those changes is an upgrade in either offense, defense, or both.
I have not spent much time looking at other teams, but the growth of our youngsters, the roster upgrades, and the addition of competent coaching/leadership are reasons this off-season has had a positive vibe, and brought me out from under a rock...
1) The growth of our young players. Our rookies, Edwards and McDaniels, both displayed growth throughout the season and have shown the promise of being pretty special players. Even Vando had a mini-breakout season showing how he can be a positive contributor on the floor.
2) The addition of what seems to be a competent head coach with leadership traits. While I and a few others had hopes Ryan could "develop" into a competent head coach, we were clearly wrong, or at least vastly underestimated his timeline. Everything Finch has said and done thus far has helped the majority here have confidence that he will give the players their best chance to succeed.
3) The roster moves. The Wolves 10-man rotation that showed promise towards the end of the season will have 3 new faces to start next season: Beasley replaces Rubio, Beverly replaces McLaughlin, and Prince replaces Junacho. Each one of those changes is an upgrade in either offense, defense, or both.
I have not spent much time looking at other teams, but the growth of our youngsters, the roster upgrades, and the addition of competent coaching/leadership are reasons this off-season has had a positive vibe, and brought me out from under a rock...
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
- Posts: 18065
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: On paper how many teams..
I fully agree with Doug's list above, but I would add that the main reason for optimism for me is the expected health of this team's core players -- namely Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell. Towns never looked like himself last year whether it was the wrist injury or personal battles with what he had just endured in the off-season. Russell may have been injured the entire first half of the season for all we know. But he did look noticeably more fluid and mobile after his knee surgery and eventual return later in the year. Those two combined with the expected and continued improvement of the team's exciting young players and the upgrades at head coach and rotation players makes me feel really good about this upcoming season -- and that's without mentioning the possibility of adding Ben Simmons.
Re: On paper how many teams..
Camden wrote:I fully agree with Doug's list above, but I would add that the main reason for optimism for me is the expected health of this team's core players -- namely Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell. Towns never looked like himself last year whether it was the wrist injury or personal battles with what he had just endured in the off-season. Russell may have been injured the entire first half of the season for all we know. But he did look noticeably more fluid and mobile after his knee surgery and eventual return later in the year. Those two combined with the expected and continued improvement of the team's exciting young players and the upgrades at head coach and rotation players makes me feel really good about this upcoming season -- and that's without mentioning the possibility of adding Ben Simmons.
Excellent point, Cam! That had completely slipped my mind when making my list. And it is as important as any on my list!
Re: On paper how many teams..
I agree with Tim and Cam on the likely improvement of the Wolves for all the reasons they've listed. I'll double down a bit on Cam's point about the health of KAT and DLO.
KAT's wrist injury alone would be expected to hold him back, but adding in his mom's death from Covid and his own bout with Covid makes you wonder how he did as well as he did last season. KAT is an elite and unique player who is just entering the prime years of his career. I do think DLO was hurting through the first-half of the year before his knee surgery. It's also become clear that he was was not on the same page as the head coach, Ryan Saunders. The marked improvement in his play after surgery is telling and I think it's a harbinger of what we can expect from him next season if he stays healthy. DLO is a really talented scorer and distributor. He was the second pick in the 2015 draft and an Eastern Conference all-star just a few years ago. Like KAT, he's just entering the prime years of his career. As much as many of use, myself included, like to focus on Edwards and McDaniels, we shouldn't overlook the talent of these two player and the substantial leap forward the team can take if these two stay healthy and play to their potential.
As for Edwards and McDaniels, I'll add that I have a high degree of confidence in their improvement next season. Talented rookies tend to improve a lot in their second seasons. So that tendency alone should result in optimism regarding both Edwards and McDaniels for this next season. My optimism regarding Edwards is also rooted in his improvement last season. He was clearly on an upward trajectory coming out of of last season and that bodes well coming into this next season. It's also worth noting that Edwards and McDaniels played well as rookies last season without a Summer League or training camp and without normal pre-season access to training facilities and coaching. They'll both begin this next season with a 72-game NBA season, full normal off-season and full training camp in their wake. McDaniels will have had Summer League experience as well.
We shouldn't underestimate what Beverley and Prince add to this team. Beverley brings three things this team desperately needed: (1) defensive prowess, (2) toughness, and (3) three-point shooting. Beverley provides all three of these along with veteran savvy and considerable NBA playoff experience. Prince is a bona fide 3-point shooter. He's averaged 37% from behind the arc over his career and 41.5% last season. So if nothing else, he will improve the team's 3-point shooting off the bench. He also brings a more veteran presence while still in his physical prime at age 27.
Overall, this team has a lot of 3-point fire-power in KAT, DLO, Beasley, Beverley, and Prince. It's also possible that Edwards and McDaniels develop into really good or even elite 3-point shooters. I expect our defense to improve with the additions of Beverley and Prince, the maturation of McDaniels who was already a good defender and the continued improvement of KAT who improved significantly on that end of the floor last year. Edwards has the potential to be an elite defender, although he has a lot to prove on that end of the floor. We'll be better defensively based solely on getting away from Ryan Saunders' over-reliance on small ball. I'd still like to see us add some more size up front by signing someone like Hartenstein.
So yes, I'm optimistic the Wolves will improve markedly this season. I liken the Wolves situation to the Phoenix Suns' improvement between their 2018-19 season and their 2019-20 season when when they went from 19 wins to 34 wins. If the 2019-20 season hadn't been cut short by Covid, it's likely the Suns would have ended up with 34 wins - effectively doubling their win total from the season before. They went on to have a great run in that season's playoff bubble. The Suns' improvement in that time span didn't result from any significant off-season additions. It resulted almost entirely from the improvement of their young player, including Booker, Ayton and Bridges. Note that, like Edwards and McDaniels going into this next season, Ayton and Bridges were 2nd-year players in the 2019-20 season. Compare Booker, Ayton and Bridges to KAT, Edwards and McDaniels. Then add DLO, Beasley and Beverley to the mix. So yes, there is precedent for optimism about the Wolves heading into the 2021-22 season.
KAT's wrist injury alone would be expected to hold him back, but adding in his mom's death from Covid and his own bout with Covid makes you wonder how he did as well as he did last season. KAT is an elite and unique player who is just entering the prime years of his career. I do think DLO was hurting through the first-half of the year before his knee surgery. It's also become clear that he was was not on the same page as the head coach, Ryan Saunders. The marked improvement in his play after surgery is telling and I think it's a harbinger of what we can expect from him next season if he stays healthy. DLO is a really talented scorer and distributor. He was the second pick in the 2015 draft and an Eastern Conference all-star just a few years ago. Like KAT, he's just entering the prime years of his career. As much as many of use, myself included, like to focus on Edwards and McDaniels, we shouldn't overlook the talent of these two player and the substantial leap forward the team can take if these two stay healthy and play to their potential.
As for Edwards and McDaniels, I'll add that I have a high degree of confidence in their improvement next season. Talented rookies tend to improve a lot in their second seasons. So that tendency alone should result in optimism regarding both Edwards and McDaniels for this next season. My optimism regarding Edwards is also rooted in his improvement last season. He was clearly on an upward trajectory coming out of of last season and that bodes well coming into this next season. It's also worth noting that Edwards and McDaniels played well as rookies last season without a Summer League or training camp and without normal pre-season access to training facilities and coaching. They'll both begin this next season with a 72-game NBA season, full normal off-season and full training camp in their wake. McDaniels will have had Summer League experience as well.
We shouldn't underestimate what Beverley and Prince add to this team. Beverley brings three things this team desperately needed: (1) defensive prowess, (2) toughness, and (3) three-point shooting. Beverley provides all three of these along with veteran savvy and considerable NBA playoff experience. Prince is a bona fide 3-point shooter. He's averaged 37% from behind the arc over his career and 41.5% last season. So if nothing else, he will improve the team's 3-point shooting off the bench. He also brings a more veteran presence while still in his physical prime at age 27.
Overall, this team has a lot of 3-point fire-power in KAT, DLO, Beasley, Beverley, and Prince. It's also possible that Edwards and McDaniels develop into really good or even elite 3-point shooters. I expect our defense to improve with the additions of Beverley and Prince, the maturation of McDaniels who was already a good defender and the continued improvement of KAT who improved significantly on that end of the floor last year. Edwards has the potential to be an elite defender, although he has a lot to prove on that end of the floor. We'll be better defensively based solely on getting away from Ryan Saunders' over-reliance on small ball. I'd still like to see us add some more size up front by signing someone like Hartenstein.
So yes, I'm optimistic the Wolves will improve markedly this season. I liken the Wolves situation to the Phoenix Suns' improvement between their 2018-19 season and their 2019-20 season when when they went from 19 wins to 34 wins. If the 2019-20 season hadn't been cut short by Covid, it's likely the Suns would have ended up with 34 wins - effectively doubling their win total from the season before. They went on to have a great run in that season's playoff bubble. The Suns' improvement in that time span didn't result from any significant off-season additions. It resulted almost entirely from the improvement of their young player, including Booker, Ayton and Bridges. Note that, like Edwards and McDaniels going into this next season, Ayton and Bridges were 2nd-year players in the 2019-20 season. Compare Booker, Ayton and Bridges to KAT, Edwards and McDaniels. Then add DLO, Beasley and Beverley to the mix. So yes, there is precedent for optimism about the Wolves heading into the 2021-22 season.
Re: On paper how many teams..
I'll add a bit here by making a couple less compelling points.
1. The Wolves had some rotation players that played some really poor basket all last year especially early on when the games mattered more. Rubio struggled and had a meh season overall for his standards. Juancho struggled. McLaughlin started out poorly. Layman didn't do anything to deserve to stay in the rotation. Ed Davis NBA career is likely over. Add these underwhelming performances to Towns and Russell not lighting he worried on fire either and it's not hard to see why things went poorly. Can we expect every player on the wolves to play at their highest level? No but if more guys play at some sort of expected level for what they have done in the past then that's going to make a difference.
2. Jake Layman started games for this team last year. I'm about as big of a Jake Layman guy as there is here but that's not good. At this point he is unlikely to see rotation minutes unless there are injuries. That's a positive. Right now he might be the least effective player on the roster. Prince SHOULD be better than him. We have often said the roster has been improved over what it was the year before only to be disappointed and that could be the case this year too (especially if there are more injuries) but I think there is some reason for thinking this group is a little better around the margins.
3. The roster fits better than it has in quite a while. There is more shooting more complimentary players. We don't have a bunch of guys that all need to have the ball on offense. We basically have Towns Russell Edwards and when he plays Nowell that seem to ne better with the ball in their hands. McLaughlin is a true PG but he van play off the ball. Russell can also play off the ball too. Does this group compliment each other on defense? No but it's not like it can get much worse than what we have seen and as others have said the Wolves may have improved a bit there via personnel.
One last thought. We talk a lot about Edwards Towns McDaniels Vanderbilt being better. I'm not holding my breath on it this espcially since he has missed quite a few games the last 2 seasons but what if Beasley makes some sort of jump? I'm probably more worried about him regressing as a shooter than hoping for him to take some sort of jump as a positive impact player but I think it's possible. I'll also throw in Bolmaro. Most people here thought McDaniels was a raw rookie that wouldn't help the Wolves at all year 1. Bolmaro has some similar aspects to his game as McDaniels in that he moves his feet well has plenty of length for defensive potential and the guy has a super high motor. Im not counting on him contributing but I would not be surprised if he gets an opportunity shows something.
Ultimately I think the reason many have optimism is Anthony Edwards. Even the most skeptical here feel there is a real chance he could be a star. That's simply massive. McDaniels is another reason too. How long have we looked for a legit guy on the wing that can defend and hit 3's? He might be that guy and it would be a pretty big deal if we did.
As for what teams we might be better than...idk Memphis may have gotten a little worse. There will be at least one team that has injury issues and falls off what is expected. I would hope we are better than OKC and Houston although I would not be surprised if Houston is reasonably competitive. One team I have to wonder about is the Spurs. Pop and that organization has been terrific but they did lose 3 pretty good players in FA and they might end up dealing away Thad Young. They signed some players in FA but I don't think they replaced the guys they had. Maybe guys like Keldon Johnson break out and they become pretty good. I think it's reasonable to look at that roster and question whether or not they are any better than they were last year.
1. The Wolves had some rotation players that played some really poor basket all last year especially early on when the games mattered more. Rubio struggled and had a meh season overall for his standards. Juancho struggled. McLaughlin started out poorly. Layman didn't do anything to deserve to stay in the rotation. Ed Davis NBA career is likely over. Add these underwhelming performances to Towns and Russell not lighting he worried on fire either and it's not hard to see why things went poorly. Can we expect every player on the wolves to play at their highest level? No but if more guys play at some sort of expected level for what they have done in the past then that's going to make a difference.
2. Jake Layman started games for this team last year. I'm about as big of a Jake Layman guy as there is here but that's not good. At this point he is unlikely to see rotation minutes unless there are injuries. That's a positive. Right now he might be the least effective player on the roster. Prince SHOULD be better than him. We have often said the roster has been improved over what it was the year before only to be disappointed and that could be the case this year too (especially if there are more injuries) but I think there is some reason for thinking this group is a little better around the margins.
3. The roster fits better than it has in quite a while. There is more shooting more complimentary players. We don't have a bunch of guys that all need to have the ball on offense. We basically have Towns Russell Edwards and when he plays Nowell that seem to ne better with the ball in their hands. McLaughlin is a true PG but he van play off the ball. Russell can also play off the ball too. Does this group compliment each other on defense? No but it's not like it can get much worse than what we have seen and as others have said the Wolves may have improved a bit there via personnel.
One last thought. We talk a lot about Edwards Towns McDaniels Vanderbilt being better. I'm not holding my breath on it this espcially since he has missed quite a few games the last 2 seasons but what if Beasley makes some sort of jump? I'm probably more worried about him regressing as a shooter than hoping for him to take some sort of jump as a positive impact player but I think it's possible. I'll also throw in Bolmaro. Most people here thought McDaniels was a raw rookie that wouldn't help the Wolves at all year 1. Bolmaro has some similar aspects to his game as McDaniels in that he moves his feet well has plenty of length for defensive potential and the guy has a super high motor. Im not counting on him contributing but I would not be surprised if he gets an opportunity shows something.
Ultimately I think the reason many have optimism is Anthony Edwards. Even the most skeptical here feel there is a real chance he could be a star. That's simply massive. McDaniels is another reason too. How long have we looked for a legit guy on the wing that can defend and hit 3's? He might be that guy and it would be a pretty big deal if we did.
As for what teams we might be better than...idk Memphis may have gotten a little worse. There will be at least one team that has injury issues and falls off what is expected. I would hope we are better than OKC and Houston although I would not be surprised if Houston is reasonably competitive. One team I have to wonder about is the Spurs. Pop and that organization has been terrific but they did lose 3 pretty good players in FA and they might end up dealing away Thad Young. They signed some players in FA but I don't think they replaced the guys they had. Maybe guys like Keldon Johnson break out and they become pretty good. I think it's reasonable to look at that roster and question whether or not they are any better than they were last year.
Re: On paper how many teams..
I'm as much of a homer as anyone here, and I'm likely to be begging for a seat on the bandwagon after our first promising preseason game...again. And I might even be talking playoffs after we start 2-1. So I love to hear the optimism. But it seems to me that a lot of the stated reasons for optimism are identical to reasons we have seen in other years...and we know how every year has turned out EXCEPT the year we brought in a true star in Butler.
The expected improvement in our young core: Haven't we been hearing this for years it seems like? Thibs called KAT, LaVine, Wig et al "the best young core in the league". But without Butler they looked like just another 34 win team. Maybe this is the year it actually pans out, but history sure doesn't support it with this franchise.
We will be healthier, and that will make us better. I've heard this one before too. But we may have to just come to grips with the fact that Russell absorbs over 25% of our cap space, and has averaged fewer than 60 games in his 6-year career. 6 years is not a small sample size, so to be optimistic, we have to bet that one of our max players changes his history and becomes an iron man. I'm actually more concerned on the other side...Ant, Jaden, Vando and Reid were all remarkably healthy last year. Can we count on that continuing? Where are we next year if Dlo and KAT play their normal number of games, but Ant misses 20-30. I would argue there's as much downside for this club as upside on the health front.
We finished last year on a strong note, so that has to mean we will be better next year. Ah, brings back memories of the late year "Sam Mitchell surge"...how did that pan out?
Look, I'm a Wolves fan, so I'm genetically predisposed to singing from the "We're going to be better this year because..." hymnal. But all our hopes never seem to pan out...except the year we brought in a true star in Butler. And I think that is why Pork teed up this thread...to provide a little reality check. Without bringing in a true star...and Simmons appears to be there for the taking if we're willing to pony up...this team may score a lot of points, but we'll be looking at another 34 win season. Vegas doesn't miss by much in their preseason win projections, and I think they nailed it again at 34.
We can now return to our regularly scheduled programming. I'll start.
Nowell shot 40% on threes in college and G League. This is going to be the year he replicates that.
The expected improvement in our young core: Haven't we been hearing this for years it seems like? Thibs called KAT, LaVine, Wig et al "the best young core in the league". But without Butler they looked like just another 34 win team. Maybe this is the year it actually pans out, but history sure doesn't support it with this franchise.
We will be healthier, and that will make us better. I've heard this one before too. But we may have to just come to grips with the fact that Russell absorbs over 25% of our cap space, and has averaged fewer than 60 games in his 6-year career. 6 years is not a small sample size, so to be optimistic, we have to bet that one of our max players changes his history and becomes an iron man. I'm actually more concerned on the other side...Ant, Jaden, Vando and Reid were all remarkably healthy last year. Can we count on that continuing? Where are we next year if Dlo and KAT play their normal number of games, but Ant misses 20-30. I would argue there's as much downside for this club as upside on the health front.
We finished last year on a strong note, so that has to mean we will be better next year. Ah, brings back memories of the late year "Sam Mitchell surge"...how did that pan out?
Look, I'm a Wolves fan, so I'm genetically predisposed to singing from the "We're going to be better this year because..." hymnal. But all our hopes never seem to pan out...except the year we brought in a true star in Butler. And I think that is why Pork teed up this thread...to provide a little reality check. Without bringing in a true star...and Simmons appears to be there for the taking if we're willing to pony up...this team may score a lot of points, but we'll be looking at another 34 win season. Vegas doesn't miss by much in their preseason win projections, and I think they nailed it again at 34.
We can now return to our regularly scheduled programming. I'll start.
Nowell shot 40% on threes in college and G League. This is going to be the year he replicates that.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: On paper how many teams..
And what happens if Anthony Edwards plays at an All-Star level in his second year? What if D'Angelo Russell produces the most-efficient season of his career finally playing alongside scorers that can alleviate the defensive attention on him? What if Karl-Anthony Towns reverts back to an All-NBA level while continuing to improve defensively? What if Jaden McDaniels takes a Mikal Bridges-like leap in his second year? What if Minnesota's bench unit is top-five in scoring with Malik Beasley contending for Sixth Man of the Year? What if Patrick Beverley gives you 50 games of All-Defensive Team level play while making 40-percent of his threes?
I'm not expecting everything to go Minnesota's way, but just as there's a chance for disaster there's also a chance for multiple things to go right. And I'd argue that everything I asked above is well within the realm of possibility. I understand the pessimism, but there are legitimate reasons to feel good about this team as it currently stands.
I'm not expecting everything to go Minnesota's way, but just as there's a chance for disaster there's also a chance for multiple things to go right. And I'd argue that everything I asked above is well within the realm of possibility. I understand the pessimism, but there are legitimate reasons to feel good about this team as it currently stands.
Re: On paper how many teams..
So I gather by reading the responses to Pork's question that zero teams are better than the Wolves!
Re: On paper how many teams..
Camden wrote:And what happens if Anthony Edwards plays at an All-Star level in his second year? What if D'Angelo Russell produces the most-efficient season of his career finally playing alongside scorers that can alleviate the defensive attention on him? What if Karl-Anthony Towns reverts back to an All-NBA level while continuing to improve defensively? What if Jaden McDaniels takes a Mikal Bridges-like leap in his second year? What if Minnesota's bench unit is top-five in scoring with Malik Beasley contending for Sixth Man of the Year? What if Patrick Beverley gives you 50 games of All-Defensive Team level play while making 40-percent of his threes?
I'm not expecting everything to go Minnesota's way, but just as there's a chance for disaster there's also a chance for multiple things to go right. And I'd argue that everything I asked above is well within the realm of possibility. I understand the pessimism, but there are legitimate reasons to feel good about this team as it currently stands.
I agree that this could be a 50-win team if all those things happened, and damn wouldn't that be fun. But I also know Vegas doesn't get their pre-season line wrong very often. The wise guys are betting that most of these things won't happen and the Wolves finish far out of the playoffs once again. I'm generally an optimist, and I'm putting my hopes on two things:
1) The Wolves are able to make a Butler-type move and bring in a game-changer like Simmons...he instantly transforms us into a playoff team with home court advantage in the first round.
2) Barring that, I have to put my hopes on all the positive things happening that you suggest. And Yogi would say that feels like deja vu all over again. And let's be honest about this question...when there's a chance for disaster, but also a chance for multiple things to go right, what usually (always?) happens with this franchise?