2017 Predictions

[bleedspeed]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/19364923/football-outsiders-post-draft-2017-nfl-projections

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10.2 mean wins, SOS: 11)
Detroit Lions: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Chicago Bears: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins, SOS: 12)
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins, SOS: 8)

When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad and great team if the defense is good. Our projections lean a bit more toward the former than the latter, but the Packers are still well ahead of the rest of their division. Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last year despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. They aren't going to rank last in our defensive ratings again, especially after drafting defensive talent such as Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor, but with less luck they'll end up with fewer wins despite better underlying statistics.

Improvement for the Chicago Bears has nothing to do with Mike Glennon. It's more likely that free-agent additions on defense and better health will improve the defense. The Bears led the NFL in our adjusted games lost injury metric last season. Minnesota was mediocre in 2016 but it's a bit surprising to see the Vikings forecast with more decline. Admittedly, it's a weird projection, because there's no particular reason to expect the Vikings will be worse. The problem is that there are a number of reasons for other defenses to get better. Effectively, the Vikings don't go backward; they stand still while other teams pass them by.

[bleedspeed]

WOW - I don't see us being worse then Bears.

[Monster]

So it's the Packers and then everyone else? BOLD

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

That's quite the ringing endorsement for our offseason. They think a Bears team with no QB is going to see major improvement over us.