I think enough time has passed that we can fairly judge the trade that sent out Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Jordan Bell, and Keita Bates-Diop and brought back a Brooklyn 1st rounder, Malik Beasley, Juancho, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt have both proven to be productive, positive players. Now would they be starting for the Sixers or Lakers? No. But could they make the 9-man rotation of most NBA teams? I think they would. And their contracts are both fairly valued.
Robert Covington - as much as we could really use a player like him given the failures of Okogie and Culver to develop their shots - has been abysmal for Portland. I don't know if he's been hampered by injuries or the nagging effects of Covid, but his age and numbers remind me a bit of the same thing with Rubio where you wonder, "what the hell happened?".
The other three guys we sent out are basically non-factors. Forgettable players in forgettable roles.
There is a lot to criticize Rosas about, but this trade has proven to be a solid one.
A Trade Rosas Won
Re: A Trade Rosas Won
Please take this pro-Rosas thread to another forum...these views are not welcome here, Q ;-)
(but I do agree Rosas kicked butt on this trade- and also made a nice pick this year with McDaniel)
(but I do agree Rosas kicked butt on this trade- and also made a nice pick this year with McDaniel)
Re: A Trade Rosas Won
I agree, Q. Rosas definitely won that trade. I'll add that I liked the trade at the time. I always thought Beasley was a guy we should target. And while I liked Covington, he's always been injury prone and I didn't see him as an optimal building block for the Wolves. Vanderbilt was a bonus.
And as long as we're in this rare moment of praise for Gersson, I'll give him props for signing Naz Reid and JMac. I'll also join FNG in recognizing the McDaniels pick as a good one, although I have this gnawing feeling that he's going to flop based on whatever it was that caused him to fall so far in the draft in spite of his considerable talent.
And as long as we're in this rare moment of praise for Gersson, I'll give him props for signing Naz Reid and JMac. I'll also join FNG in recognizing the McDaniels pick as a good one, although I have this gnawing feeling that he's going to flop based on whatever it was that caused him to fall so far in the draft in spite of his considerable talent.
Re: A Trade Rosas Won
I'm similarly ill-at-ease with McDaniels, Lip, even though he seems to have real skills and athleticism. What were the intangibles that kept the #7 recruit in the country from having mediocre stats on a poor Washington team? Was it bad coaching? Has the kid grown up emotionally overnight? I'm holding out hope that it's the latter. I note that he had 6 technical fouls in his freshman year and was known as a hothead, but has shown none of that in his NBA minutes so far.
I'm holding my breath and the jury is far from out on this one, but he sure looks like a very good last first rounder so far.
I'm holding my breath and the jury is far from out on this one, but he sure looks like a very good last first rounder so far.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: A Trade Rosas Won
There's a couple different ways to look at that trade. There's the view you have here with how the trade looks from A to C, which is certainly an understandable take given the yielded results so far.
And then there's the view from when the trade was made. Robert Covington had a ton of value around the league as a valuable and versatile three-point shooting combo-forward. He netted the Wolves everything you listed above, but could the return have been greater? Personally, I think so. The Wolves could have had the 17th and 22nd picks in the 2020 NBA draft while taking back a large expiring contract that would have allowed the financial flexibility to make other moves at a later date had they not included the Nuggets in the deal.
Firstly, I'm not a huge fan of trading for guys that are about to hit free agency -- unrestricted or restricted. I totally understand the cap reasons and how it can allow teams to add players long-term that they otherwise might not have been able to acquire. I get all of that. But especially in the case of Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez it allowed both players the opportunity to increase their market value over their 14 games with the Wolves. Beasley had already turned down an extension with Denver where he would have made $30-million over three years and he was actually having a pretty subpar season after the fact. There's no guarantee that he would have gotten that same offer as a free agent after the type of year he was having and the Nuggets would probably have let him walk as he was falling out of their rotation anyways.
The Wolves allowed Beasley to showcase what he could be with more opportunity and it absolutely saved his market value. A savvier front office would have allowed Beasley to continue to stymie his value in Denver and then target him in free agency as a low-risk, medium-high reward acquisition that cost nothing in draft capital. I'm confident he could have been had for the full MLE or less if not for those 14 games he started in Minnesota.
There's also the trade that sent Covington to Portland in the first place. Houston essentially received more for him than Minnesota did just months after the two made their trade. The Rockets received Trevor Ariza's expiring contract, the No. 16 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, and a protected first-round selection in the 2021 draft. Perhaps the Wolves should have been more patient and waited to trade Covington on draft night.
This is all subjective, admittedly. Perhaps I view trades differently overall. And while this trade turned out okay for Minnesota I think a smarter front office would have squeezed out more while still getting their guys -- Beasley and Hernangomez -- at a later date for cheaper cost.
And then there's the view from when the trade was made. Robert Covington had a ton of value around the league as a valuable and versatile three-point shooting combo-forward. He netted the Wolves everything you listed above, but could the return have been greater? Personally, I think so. The Wolves could have had the 17th and 22nd picks in the 2020 NBA draft while taking back a large expiring contract that would have allowed the financial flexibility to make other moves at a later date had they not included the Nuggets in the deal.
Firstly, I'm not a huge fan of trading for guys that are about to hit free agency -- unrestricted or restricted. I totally understand the cap reasons and how it can allow teams to add players long-term that they otherwise might not have been able to acquire. I get all of that. But especially in the case of Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez it allowed both players the opportunity to increase their market value over their 14 games with the Wolves. Beasley had already turned down an extension with Denver where he would have made $30-million over three years and he was actually having a pretty subpar season after the fact. There's no guarantee that he would have gotten that same offer as a free agent after the type of year he was having and the Nuggets would probably have let him walk as he was falling out of their rotation anyways.
The Wolves allowed Beasley to showcase what he could be with more opportunity and it absolutely saved his market value. A savvier front office would have allowed Beasley to continue to stymie his value in Denver and then target him in free agency as a low-risk, medium-high reward acquisition that cost nothing in draft capital. I'm confident he could have been had for the full MLE or less if not for those 14 games he started in Minnesota.
There's also the trade that sent Covington to Portland in the first place. Houston essentially received more for him than Minnesota did just months after the two made their trade. The Rockets received Trevor Ariza's expiring contract, the No. 16 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, and a protected first-round selection in the 2021 draft. Perhaps the Wolves should have been more patient and waited to trade Covington on draft night.
This is all subjective, admittedly. Perhaps I view trades differently overall. And while this trade turned out okay for Minnesota I think a smarter front office would have squeezed out more while still getting their guys -- Beasley and Hernangomez -- at a later date for cheaper cost.
Re: A Trade Rosas Won
Cam - Good points. When you factor in opportunity costs, the Beasley deal doesn't look as impressive. In another thread, I listed a number of opportunity costs associated with other moves Rosas has made. My broad take-away about Rosas is that he's not very savvy. His thinking seems pedestrian and myopic. It's the old chess versus checkers metaphor with Gersson playing checkers. You and I may disagree on this, but I remain convinced that the Wolves could have acquired DLO from Golden State for a lot less than we gave up, especially if they had waited for the off season. I cringe at the thought of the high fives and laughter in the Warriors' front office after Rosas agreed to give them a largely unprotected 1st rounder for DLO when no other teams were banging down their door to get him. And they also knew that Wiggins could actually be a positive player for them with Kerr as head coach and Curry running the offense.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: A Trade Rosas Won
Well, I'm going to ultimately judge Rosas on results, not woulda-coulda-shoulda. How do we know that he didn't view Vanderbilt as the equivalent of getting a mid-1st rounder? He's definitely performing better than your typical mid-first.
Here is where Beasley ranks versus other Shooting Guards that have played 10 or more games and 200 or more minutes this season:
PER - #17
BPM - #23
VORP - Tied for 9th, 16 guys above him
Real Plus-Minus - #11
That's a league average starting Shooting Guard in my book, making $15M per year. That's solid value.
Vanderbilt with same games played and minutes criteria (except for RPM stat):
PER - #8
BPM - #8
VORP - #12
RPM - #21
I'm not ready to call Vanderbilt a top 10 starting PF, but this should be very encouraging. At minimum, he is an up and coming PF that can do nearly everything well except shoot from outside. I think this is fine if you look at things in positional pairs. The Centers Vanderbilt is going to play with are KAT and Naz, both of whom have to be respected from beyond the arc. Vanderbilt gives our guards and play makers an easy target in the dunker's spot or over the top of the defense. We literally have no one else like him on the team.
Here is where Beasley ranks versus other Shooting Guards that have played 10 or more games and 200 or more minutes this season:
PER - #17
BPM - #23
VORP - Tied for 9th, 16 guys above him
Real Plus-Minus - #11
That's a league average starting Shooting Guard in my book, making $15M per year. That's solid value.
Vanderbilt with same games played and minutes criteria (except for RPM stat):
PER - #8
BPM - #8
VORP - #12
RPM - #21
I'm not ready to call Vanderbilt a top 10 starting PF, but this should be very encouraging. At minimum, he is an up and coming PF that can do nearly everything well except shoot from outside. I think this is fine if you look at things in positional pairs. The Centers Vanderbilt is going to play with are KAT and Naz, both of whom have to be respected from beyond the arc. Vanderbilt gives our guards and play makers an easy target in the dunker's spot or over the top of the defense. We literally have no one else like him on the team.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: A Trade Rosas Won
Just piggy-backing off the stats stuff, as I looked at a few others on the roster as well. In my mind, the blame of why we are so horrible falls pretty much in this order:
#1 - Ricky Rubio. He is paid like our 3rd best player. He is currently one of the worst regularly playing PGs in the league right now. I love him - loved the trade - but he is a shell of what he was 10 months ago.
#2 - Anthony Edwards. I'd put him ahead of Rubio, but he's paid less. Actively harms the team nearly every time he steps on the court. His occasional "wow" play obfuscates just how bad he's been. Rated as one of the worst wings in the NBA getting regular minutes. Statistically ranks God-awful on both sides of the ball. If he wasn't a #1 pick with upside, he'd be in the G-League or Europe right now. He's been terrible.
#3 - Josh Okogie. Has become increasingly one-dimensional. His inability to impact the game in any way other than occasionally playing some impressive one on one defense is extremely disappointing from someone that showed much better potential as a 2-way player coming out of college. The only reason he isn't #2 is because he doesn't actively harm the team as much as Edwards does when he is on the floor.
#4 - Jarrett Culver. His rebounding and ability to score at the rim this season, along with some solid defense, puts him a step "behind" Okogie in the blame game. His shot is still broken and his defense, while good, isn't elite.
These four guys soak up a ton of minutes for our squad. They are collectively the main reason for our lack of competitiveness. Rosas is directly responsible for three of them.
#1 - Ricky Rubio. He is paid like our 3rd best player. He is currently one of the worst regularly playing PGs in the league right now. I love him - loved the trade - but he is a shell of what he was 10 months ago.
#2 - Anthony Edwards. I'd put him ahead of Rubio, but he's paid less. Actively harms the team nearly every time he steps on the court. His occasional "wow" play obfuscates just how bad he's been. Rated as one of the worst wings in the NBA getting regular minutes. Statistically ranks God-awful on both sides of the ball. If he wasn't a #1 pick with upside, he'd be in the G-League or Europe right now. He's been terrible.
#3 - Josh Okogie. Has become increasingly one-dimensional. His inability to impact the game in any way other than occasionally playing some impressive one on one defense is extremely disappointing from someone that showed much better potential as a 2-way player coming out of college. The only reason he isn't #2 is because he doesn't actively harm the team as much as Edwards does when he is on the floor.
#4 - Jarrett Culver. His rebounding and ability to score at the rim this season, along with some solid defense, puts him a step "behind" Okogie in the blame game. His shot is still broken and his defense, while good, isn't elite.
These four guys soak up a ton of minutes for our squad. They are collectively the main reason for our lack of competitiveness. Rosas is directly responsible for three of them.
Re: A Trade Rosas Won
Q, you have named the four players I agree are performing far below what I expected from them coming into the season. But I think you missed 2 other reasons for our lack of competitiveness that I have ranked ahead of the 4 underperformers.
The Towns injury: Karl seemed this season to bring some defensive intensity and effectiveness that has been missing from previous seasons, along with his usual offensive brilliance. His absence due to injury and illness has to be #1 on anyone's list of reasons for our lack of competitiveness. We actually have looked competitive in the 4 games he has played.
Russell: My sarcastic post today in the DLO thread cannot be ignored when listing reasons for our failures so far this year, and I have him as a solid #2 on my list behind the KAT absence. We have been outscored by a league-worst 10.5 points this season, but we have been outscored by 12.4 when DLO is on the court. Doesn't that mean that the Wolves are actually outscoring their opponent by 1.9 points when DLO has his hoodie on? I get that some of our subs' numbers are buoyed by garbage time. But still...
The Towns injury: Karl seemed this season to bring some defensive intensity and effectiveness that has been missing from previous seasons, along with his usual offensive brilliance. His absence due to injury and illness has to be #1 on anyone's list of reasons for our lack of competitiveness. We actually have looked competitive in the 4 games he has played.
Russell: My sarcastic post today in the DLO thread cannot be ignored when listing reasons for our failures so far this year, and I have him as a solid #2 on my list behind the KAT absence. We have been outscored by a league-worst 10.5 points this season, but we have been outscored by 12.4 when DLO is on the court. Doesn't that mean that the Wolves are actually outscoring their opponent by 1.9 points when DLO has his hoodie on? I get that some of our subs' numbers are buoyed by garbage time. But still...
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: A Trade Rosas Won
FNG, Yes, clearly KAT's absence is the #1 reason we aren't competitive. But I was looking mostly at the players that have been on the floor.
As for DLO, even without a pure +/- stat, here is where he stands in those other numbers I cited for Vando and Beasley among fellow Point Guards:
PER - #18
BPM - #23
VORP - Tied for 20th
RPM - #38 (this tries to clear out some of the noise from pure +/-)
These are much more generous to DLO than the pure +/- stat. But even if you totally discount +/-, there is no question we are not getting even close to our money's worth on that max contract.
So I agree, I'd add DLO to the list above due purely to the fact that when he plays, he's done absolutely nothing to improve our chances. We get blown out of most games whether he plays or not.
Rubio, DLO, Culver, Okogie, Edwards. That's our basket of horribles. We need them to either start stepping up, trade them, or replace them in the rotation.
As for DLO, even without a pure +/- stat, here is where he stands in those other numbers I cited for Vando and Beasley among fellow Point Guards:
PER - #18
BPM - #23
VORP - Tied for 20th
RPM - #38 (this tries to clear out some of the noise from pure +/-)
These are much more generous to DLO than the pure +/- stat. But even if you totally discount +/-, there is no question we are not getting even close to our money's worth on that max contract.
So I agree, I'd add DLO to the list above due purely to the fact that when he plays, he's done absolutely nothing to improve our chances. We get blown out of most games whether he plays or not.
Rubio, DLO, Culver, Okogie, Edwards. That's our basket of horribles. We need them to either start stepping up, trade them, or replace them in the rotation.