The Durability Factor

[Lipoli390]

We've all heard it stated in various ways: "Durability is a talent." "A player's talent doesn't mean anything if he's not playing." The list goes on, but the meaning is the same. And like all cliche's, it's an undeniable truth. A player's durability is a big, big deal. It profoundly impacts a player's value to his team as well as that player's ultimate market value and career accomplishments. And since no player is entirely immune to injury, all teams need a certain amount of redundancy to account for possible injuries - how much redundancy a team needs depends on the relative durability of the key players the team relies on.

Now let's look at the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers are one of the top teams in the East, currently in 4th place behind Toronto, Milwaukee and Indiana, remaining just1.5 games ahead of the 5th place Celtics. Last night the Sixers suffered a 16-point loss to the Nuggets in Denver. Losing to the 2nd place team in the West on the West team's home court is certainly no disgrace. But the Sixers lost by 16 and had no chance of winning that game. Why? Because the Sixers were without two of their core top 3 players, Butler and Embiid. Butler was out with what has just been diagnosed as a sprained wrist on the same hand he had surgery on this past summer. Embiid was out with a sore back he's been battling for a week.

But the real story isn't that injuries kept these two allstars out of last night's game. The real story is that it's not much of a story for these two. Butler and Embiid are known for having missing a lot of games to various injuries throughout their respective careers. Butler has missed around 15 games per season in his career. We can all recall him missing over 20 games last season, which likely resulted in an 8th seed rather than a top 5 seed for the Wolves. Embiid has missed two entire seasons - each the result of a different physical malady. Last night it was a sore back - an issue he had coming out of college. But like Jimmy, who typically experiences a range of different physical problems, Embiid's issues haven't been isolated to his back. Note the following injury report on Embiid just one month ago on Dec. 30: "The 24-year-old star will miss Philadelphia's game against the Trail Blazers in Portland on Sunday because of left knee soreness and his status for the following day's matchup with the Clippers is uncertain, coach Brett Brown told reporters."

So what does all this mean? First, I think it calls for a deeper appreciation of KAT and Wiggins. KAT hasn't missed a game in his now nearly 4 seasons in the League. That's astounding, especially when you consider how hard he plays and the physical pounding he takes day after day in the post. Wiggins has been almost as durable over his almost 5 seasons in the League. Second, it calls for special attention to injury propensity when making personnel decisions and constructing your team's roster, whether its evaluating draft prospects, identifying possible free agent acquisitions trade targets, deciding what to do with your own players or determining how to construct your bench.

For the Wolves it's just another compelling reason to build our franchise around KAT. It's why I'd take KAT over Embiid or AD as a big around whom to build a franchise. But it's also a reason to be cautious when considering the notion of trading Wiggins. In addition, it's an important factor in considering what we should do with Derrick Rose. Looking back, it was a reason to question the Butler acquisition - something I and others expressed at the time. Looking ahead again, it should be a major consideration in all future Wolves roster and player personnel decisions.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

My spite will show in this post, but there's no question who is the straw who stirs the drink for Philly...they are 5-2 when playing without Butler, but 1-3 when playing without Embiid. Further, they beat Houston and the Spurs the previous two games before the Denver game without Jimmy because they had Joel. They can win without Jimmy Cancer, but not without Joel.

Beyond that, good point about the valuable durability of KAT and Wig.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Durability is important, look no further than this team.

Yet, without cov, we are playing. 500 ball. Without rose, we are playing almost .700 ball.

We are playing guys that played little to no minutes last year, and we are still afloat.

Kat and his durability is playing a leading role, as well as wiggins. As long as 1 of those 2 are still on the floor, opposing defenses still gravitate toward them which makes the game a little easier for everyone else.

Jonk tweeted once that wiggs has an inner toughness because he's played through injuries during his 5 years. And that the nba is so physical, that it is tough to play all those minutes and games. I believe this applied to kat as well.

And both those guys have looked better defensively regardless of what the advanced metrics say.

Taj is the rock. He gives us the consistency when kat and wiggs have their ups and downs.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

And when Cov comes back I think we should use Deng more than Dieng or at least use equally, meaning about 10 minutes each.

[Duke13]

Durability is important, look no further than this team.

Yet, without cov, we are playing. 500 ball. Without rose, we are playing almost .700 ball.

We are playing guys that played little to no minutes last year, and we are still afloat.

Kat and his durability is playing a leading role, as well as wiggins. As long as 1 of those 2 are still on the floor, opposing defenses still gravitate toward them which makes the game a little easier for everyone else.

Jonk tweeted once that wiggs has an inner toughness because he's played through injuries during his 5 years. And that the nba is so physical, that it is tough to play all those minutes and games. I believe this applied to kat as well.

And both those guys have looked better defensively regardless of what the advanced metrics say.

Taj is the rock. He gives us the consistency when kat and wiggs have their ups and downs.

Well up until recently you could argue the the effort exerted by Wig during a given NBA game was that of maybe 1/4 of what most NBA player give. So by that metric, my own, Wig actually misses 60 games a year. I don't know, difficult time giving Wig credit for toughness or durability.

[Coolbreeze44]

Excellent thread Lip, and Duke's comments excluded, this is an excellent discussion. I've long maintained that the best ability is availability. It's huge that KAT and Wig show up and play every night. I don't doubt at all these guys play with various hurts throughout the year. How many games better would the Sixers be if they had Butthead and Embiid every night? It could be the difference between having home court advantage in the first round or having to face Boston without it. Again, it's huge. The way KAT plays and the size of guys he has to battle every night has to be taxing. You see him roll an ankle or tweak a knee and he bounces right back every single time. Hopefully these two guys can continue to show the same durability going forward.

[Monster]

Missing regular season games is a problem but an even bigger problem is missing playoff games. That's the bigger gamble with good or even great players that have a history of missing games. Chris Paul is a bigtime example. Dude is tough and a great player one of the best all around PGs of my lifetime...when healthy. How many playoffs has his team finished without him? There are plenty of other examples. Injury history isn't a guarantee either (both good and bad) and some guys missing a game here or there in the regular season if they are sore or something is smart. There are a few players on good teams if you are a fan of that team you will or probably should have a little foreboding worried if that guy is gonna be available when it really matters. Kyrie comes to mind.

Sometimes very good or great players have overcome some injuries that could have derailed or slowed them down. Durant with foot surgeries. Paul George with a devastating leg injury. Those two guys are premium players in the league right now. Derrick Rose has fought back to be a very effective player. His injuries have kept cropping up and the reporting is he is absolutely doing everything you can imagine to just stay healthy and play. I think that's gonna keep his salary lower which could be good for the Wolves. He needs to play more of a Manu type role in how much he plays. He needs to be rested on some back to backs etc. I think he can be a piece to the team's success the next 2-3 year beyond this season but he can't be absutely counted on. He needs to stay as a bench guy with maybe some bigger games here and there. We need to rely on other guys including having the talent available to do so.

[Lipoli390]

Missing regular season games is a problem but an even bigger problem is missing playoff games. That's the bigger gamble with good or even great players that have a history of missing games. Chris Paul is a bigtime example. Dude is tough and a great player one of the best all around PGs of my lifetime...when healthy. How many playoffs has his team finished without him? There are plenty of other examples. Injury history isn't a guarantee either (both good and bad) and some guys missing a game here or there in the regular season if they are sore or something is smart. There are a few players on good teams if you are a fan of that team you will or probably should have a little foreboding worried if that guy is gonna be available when it really matters. Kyrie comes to mind.

Sometimes very good or great players have overcome some injuries that could have derailed or slowed them down. Durant with foot surgeries. Paul George with a devastating leg injury. Those two guys are premium players in the league right now. Derrick Rose has fought back to be a very effective player. His injuries have kept cropping up and the reporting is he is absolutely doing everything you can imagine to just stay healthy and play. I think that's gonna keep his salary lower which could be good for the Wolves. He needs to play more of a Manu type role in how much he plays. He needs to be rested on some back to backs etc. I think he can be a piece to the team's success the next 2-3 year beyond this season but he can't be absutely counted on. He needs to stay as a bench guy with maybe some bigger games here and there. We need to rely on other guys including having the talent available to do so.

Some good points, Monster.

As you pointed out, Chris Paul is a good example of a great player who has a history of missing a lot of games with various physical issues. His example also illustrates that a propensity to miss games with injuries generally doesn't reflect a lack of mental toughness since there are few as mentally tough as Chris Paul. Some players are simply more physically durable than others. As Bud Grant used to say, it's always the same guys in the training room..."

Paul George and Kevin Durant are two good examples of the difference between those who lack generally physical durability (Butler and Embiid) versus those who miss a chunk of games from a particular traumatic injury (Paul George fracture) or a specific physical issue (Durant foot issue). With Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, it's been a range of different physical issues over a period of time causing them to miss a lot of games. With those three and others, it always seems to be something.

Unfortunately, I think Derrick Rose falls into the Paul/Butler/Embiid grouping at this point in his career, although I think his ongoing issue is related mainly to his ankles. In other words, he can't be counted on to play over the course of a season. I agree that he could be a helpful piece to the Wolves' success over the next 2-3 seasons. But if the Wolves choose to include Rose as part of the mix going forward they have to do two things. First, they need to carefully manage his minutes, limiting his playing time in each game, not playing him in back-to-back games and giving him rest games when he won't play a la Joel Embiid. Second, because of the need to significantly limit his minutes and knowing he can't be counted on, the Wolves would need to add more roster redundancy at the PG position. For example, if the Wolves decide to move forward with Tyus Jones as our starting PG and keep Rose as his primary backup (6th man), the Wolves would need to make sure that have a Jared Bayless type on the roster as well.

[Monster]

Missing regular season games is a problem but an even bigger problem is missing playoff games. That's the bigger gamble with good or even great players that have a history of missing games. Chris Paul is a bigtime example. Dude is tough and a great player one of the best all around PGs of my lifetime...when healthy. How many playoffs has his team finished without him? There are plenty of other examples. Injury history isn't a guarantee either (both good and bad) and some guys missing a game here or there in the regular season if they are sore or something is smart. There are a few players on good teams if you are a fan of that team you will or probably should have a little foreboding worried if that guy is gonna be available when it really matters. Kyrie comes to mind.

Sometimes very good or great players have overcome some injuries that could have derailed or slowed them down. Durant with foot surgeries. Paul George with a devastating leg injury. Those two guys are premium players in the league right now. Derrick Rose has fought back to be a very effective player. His injuries have kept cropping up and the reporting is he is absolutely doing everything you can imagine to just stay healthy and play. I think that's gonna keep his salary lower which could be good for the Wolves. He needs to play more of a Manu type role in how much he plays. He needs to be rested on some back to backs etc. I think he can be a piece to the team's success the next 2-3 year beyond this season but he can't be absutely counted on. He needs to stay as a bench guy with maybe some bigger games here and there. We need to rely on other guys including having the talent available to do so.

Some good points, Monster.

As you pointed out, Chris Paul is a good example of a great player who has a history of missing a lot of games with various physical issues. His example also illustrates that a propensity to miss games with injuries generally doesn't reflect a lack of mental toughness since there are few as mentally tough as Chris Paul. Some players are simply more physically durable than others. As Bud Grant used to say, it's always the same guys in the training room..."

Paul George and Kevin Durant are two good examples of the difference between those who lack generally physical durability (Butler and Embiid) versus those who miss a chunk of games from a particular traumatic injury (Paul George fracture) or a specific physical issue (Durant foot issue). With Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, it's been a range of different physical issues over a period of time causing them to miss a lot of games. With those three and others, it always seems to be something.

Unfortunately, I think Derrick Rose falls into the Paul/Butler/Embiid grouping at this point in his career, although I think his ongoing issue is related mainly to his ankles. In other words, he can't be counted on to play over the course of a season. I agree that he could be a helpful piece to the Wolves' success over the next 2-3 seasons. But if the Wolves choose to include Rose as part of the mix going forward they have to do two things. First, they need to carefully manage his minutes, limiting his playing time in each game, not playing him in back-to-back games and giving him rest games when he won't play a la Joel Embiid. Second, because of the need to significantly limit his minutes and knowing he can't be counted on, the Wolves would need to add more roster redundancy at the PG position. For example, if the Wolves decide to move forward with Tyus Jones as our starting PG and keep Rose as his primary backup (6th man), the Wolves would need to make sure that have a Jared Bayless type on the roster as well.

Bayless is a nice story but we need someone better than him (unless he looks awesome the rest of the season) as a backup plan. I still think Rose is not really a PG. I see him more as a combo guy. That's not knocking Rose as much as I think having him as a guy who runs the offense takes away from what his strengths is and if you want a team that moves the ball...sometimes that's not Rose which isn't always bad.

[Wolvesfan21]

I agree with Duke minus the exaggeration. Of course we all know Wiggins has not consistently if not nearly all the time given full effort like his life depended on winning the game. He's not hustled, rebounded, done the hard dirty work to win on a consistent basis.

So I do think that has without a doubt contributed to his ability to stay on the floor. I think finding a balance is best. You don't want to be diving for every loose ball all the time. Especially when the game isn't in the balance. But we all know he should be playing harder then he does. Finishing harder in the paint. Rebounding and defending harder too.

KAT, I can't fault his effort much at all. He plays at a consistent high effort level most of the time and his bail;ity to stay on the floor has been tremendous. Which is one reason I wouldn't trade KAT and Embiid if the offer was there. Embiid while being the better player, just has too much of a history of being injured and is a much higher risk going forward too.

I would trade Wiggins for Embiid however. lol