Bench and minutes distribution criticism

[BloopOracle]

This is not from me but a post from reddit that is gaining quite a bit of traction, I agree with all of it though.


"Last season, KAT(37.0 mpg) and Wiggins(37.2) were third and fifth in the league in minutes per game. Jimmy Butler, still with the Bulls, was 4th in the league.

Despite beliefs that Thibs is working KAT into the ground, KAT is playing 35.7 MPG this season, even with an injured backup. So he's actually playing less despite games being more competitive and our bench being more shallow than a sidewalk puddle.

This year, Butler(37.2) and Wiggins(36.7) are leading the team. So Butler is playing the same minutes he was with Hoiberg while Wiggins and KAT are actually playing LESS than last season. So contrary to the image of the evil Thibs, he is watching their minutes.



Do they still play more than most starters? Yes, of course. And here's why. Wolves lineups

If you swap Butler out for Shabazz, the Wolves suddenly drop from a team with +7.7 Net Rating to a lineup with a -33.1 Net. Sit KAT, Butler, and Gibson? -30.4 Net. Sit Wiggins and Teague? Negative. Play the whole bench? Negative.

Out of 11 lineups with 30+ minutes, the Wolves have just 3 options that don't become complete liabilities. Swapping KAT for Dieng and swapping Teague for Tyus.

You may be under the belief that Wiggins is useless because his stats aren't getting better, but he is actually getting better and better on defense, and his floor gravity opens up things for everyone else. There is not a single lineup in Minnesota that is a positive with Wiggins on the bench.



But that's not even the biggest issue. I want you to see the numbers, to see just how incredibly awful Minnesota's bench is.

On-Off numbers = How much better the team scores per 100 possessions with that player on the floor.

Butler: +19.9
Gibson: +18.8
Wiggins: +11.6
Towns: +8.4.
Teague: +7.1



Now let's look at the bench.

Dieng: -15.8 (KATs only viable backup)

Crawford: -20.4 (Our sixth man, the only shot creator on our bench)

Shabazz: -26.6 (Our only wing on the bench. Dreadful player.)

Aldrich: -26.5 (Doesn't play enough to matter)

Georges-Hunt: -8.2 (A 6-5 guard playing 83% of his minutes at SF because Shabazz is unplayable.)
Aaron Brooks: -35.6 (Backup point guard, notorious chucker. Unplayable.)

We have two positives: Bjelica(Injured) and Tyus(Teague's backup, getting minutes.)



So here's where I ask the question: How are the starters supposed to play 33mpg when the bench blows 15 point leads EVERY TIME they come out on the floor? You see the numbers. So Thibs has two options:

Play starters more: Everyone calls for his head. Claims he will injure players. Calls him archaic, unable to adjust to today's game. Articles from sports websites and Reddit showing how many minutes our starters play compared to the rest of the league. Cites how much Luol Deng used to play. Claims Thibs led to Noah/Rose/Deng all being injured.

Play starters less: Lose games. Everyone calls for his head. Probably loses job. People say he's wasting KAT and Wiggins potential, wasting Butler's prime. Calls him archaic, unable to adjust to today's game.

So he picks the options that leads to wins. And we are winning. 18-13, 4th in the stacked western conference. Defense is suffering but a lot of that is due to the bench blowing games open in their short time on the floor. Suddenly a top 10 offense, 8th in PPG, 5th in ORTG. Target Center is 12th in the league in attendance after being 29th of 30 in the last two seasons.



Our last 5 losses have been within 4 points or gone to OT. In those losses, we were met with "KAT PLAYED 40 MINUTES IN A LOSS? RABBLE!!"

Phoenix Box Score - Starters are all a positive. Bench managed to be -17 in just 15 minutes of play. Lost game by 3 points.



Wizards box score - Entire starting lineup is a positive, our one consistent bench player, Tyus, is starting. Bench is a negative, -13 in 15 minutes, scores 11 points on 33% together. Wizards bench scores 49 points on 54%.



Thunder box score - Once again, bench is a negative. Dieng provides some good scoring but also providers a -16 to the box score. Thibs, trying to give Butler a few minutes off early in the game(played 41 minutes), plays Wiggins with the bench. They proceed to get outscored by 11 points in 6 minutes.



Sixers Box Score - The notorious 48 minute game. Starters are mostly a positive until overtime. Bench goes 33%(0/5 from three) on 11 points, outscored by Trevor Booker by himself from Sixers bench. Gibson fouls out, forcing him to play Dieng at the PF. Thibs is faced with a choice: Play KAT through the 4th and OT or stick Cole Aldrich on Embiid. Easy choice.



Grizzlies Box Score - Starters positive except Wiggins, who suffers from "bench negatives" again. Jamal Crawford throwing up the casual 2/10 in under 20 minutes.



I want to sum this up because I'm getting carried away. Look, Thibs isn't without fault here. There are times when he plays the starters when they don't need to be out on the floor. If we're down 20 with 5 minutes left, maybe just call it quits Thibs.

But you're missing the key reason he is doing this: The Wolves have NOBODY else. If you want Minnesota to win games, you can't play Cole Aldrich and Shabazz Muhammad and Aaron Brooks. We have, undoubtedly, the worst bench in the league, and anyone who expects Thibs to shore that up in a single season is expecting far too much. He already scored us an All-NBA player, a former all-star point guard, and one of the most consistent role players in the league in Gibson. We don't look like contenders, obviously, but we finally look like a playoff team. Regardless, players can't rest when they don't have backup.



Towns/Gibson: Dieng is the only backup big we have until Bjelica comes back from injury.

Butler: Crawford is the only backup we have. Unfortunately, Butler has to move to SF when Wiggins needs rest because Shabazz is out of the rotation.

Wiggins: See above. He has no backup right now except Butler and a second-year player(MGH) player with 93 minutes in his NBA career.

Teague: Has a backup in Tyus. This is nice.



And despite all of this, all of our roster holes, all of our bench struggles, all of our extra minutes, there are STILL other teams that play their stars more than Thibs!



Butler + Wiggins combine for 73.9 minutes.

Lillard + McCollum combine for 73.9 minutes.

Giannis + Middleton combine for 75.1 minutes.

Westbrook + George combine for 73.7 minutes.

Cousins + Holiday = 73 minutes.

Harden + Ariza = 71 minutes and they skip 4th quarters sometimes.

Hell, Barnes and Matthews play 70 minutes combined and they're last in the west and clearly tanking.



So maybe, just maybe... we're overreacting by calling for Thibs job? The fact that he's pulled off an 18-13 record with THIS roster while not playing the guys 40 minutes every single game is a miracle."

[AbeVigodaLive]

All fair points... but I assume somebody then mentioned that Thibs is the guy who put the roster together?

Should we just switch the argument to Fire Thibs the GM?

[BloopOracle]

All fair points... but I assume somebody then mentioned that Thibs is the guy who put the roster together?

Should we just switch the argument to Fire Thibs the GM?

I would argue that you need to give a GM more than a year to shore up a perrenial bottom dweller team, we've made the biggest trade in team history as well as the biggest FA signing ever multiple times in one off season. The GM still has managed to construct the current 4th seed in the West. Has there ever been one fired after making that big of a leap? A playoff appearance with homecourt was at the peak of most of the board optimist's dreams coming into this season and now we want to fire the decision maker because things aren't perfect?

[AbeVigodaLive]

All fair points... but I assume somebody then mentioned that Thibs is the guy who put the roster together?

Should we just switch the argument to Fire Thibs the GM?

I would argue that you need to give a GM more than a year to shore up a perrenial bottom dweller team, we've made the biggest trade in team history as well as the biggest FA signing ever multiple times in one off season. The GM still has managed to construct the current 4th seed in the West. Has there ever been one fired after making that big of a leap?

Hey. I'm not advocating for firing either "guy."

I'm just pointing out the dicey nature of the original premise... it's letting Thibs get his cake and eat it too.
No blame as coach... because of the GM. But no blame on the GM.

I guess that's the rub of having a guy in the dual role.

[BloopOracle]

yeah....I do wish the roles were filled by two different people even if I am happy with how things have gone so far.

[thedoper]

We are moving forward in this transition year. Depth was going to be the issue without the MLE. Great post Bloop.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yes, very good analysis.

I think some of us were pining for more minutes for Tyus (playing with Teague, which absolutely can happen on more than just a blue moon) and Bjelly when he was healthy (perhaps stealing a few minutes at the 3).

[Lipoli390]

All fair points... but I assume somebody then mentioned that Thibs is the guy who put the roster together?

Should we just switch the argument to Fire Thibs the GM?

I would argue that you need to give a GM more than a year to shore up a perrenial bottom dweller team, we've made the biggest trade in team history as well as the biggest FA signing ever multiple times in one off season. The GM still has managed to construct the current 4th seed in the West. Has there ever been one fired after making that big of a leap? A playoff appearance with homecourt was at the peak of most of the board optimist's dreams coming into this season and now we want to fire the decision maker because things aren't perfect?

Thibs didn't inherit a typical bottom dweller just starting a rebuild. He inherited a team that had two #1 overall picks and what Thibs himself called the best young roster in the NBA. He then had a high lottery pick his first summer here along with cap space. He had a lot of cap space and assets last summer. He got the vets he wanted last summer. So yes, he should be held accountable for the roster. Actually, I don't think he's done a bad job as PBO. My issue is with his coaching. But as I've mentioned, I still think he should be given the rest of this season before Taylor decides whether to fire him.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

All fair points... but I assume somebody then mentioned that Thibs is the guy who put the roster together?

Should we just switch the argument to Fire Thibs the GM?

I would argue that you need to give a GM more than a year to shore up a perrenial bottom dweller team, we've made the biggest trade in team history as well as the biggest FA signing ever multiple times in one off season. The GM still has managed to construct the current 4th seed in the West. Has there ever been one fired after making that big of a leap? A playoff appearance with homecourt was at the peak of most of the board optimist's dreams coming into this season and now we want to fire the decision maker because things aren't perfect?

Thibs didn't inherit a typical bottom dweller just starting a rebuild. He inherited a team that had two #1 overall picks and what Thibs himself called the best young roster in the NBA. He then had a high lottery pick his first summer here along with cap space. He had a lot of cap space and assets last summer. He got the vets he wanted last summer. So yes, he should be held accountable for the roster. Actually, I don't think he's done a bad job as PBO. My issue is with his coaching. But as I've mentioned, I still think he should be given the rest of this season before Taylor decides whether to fire him.

Yes, this theory that we have no talent on the bench not only absolves POBO Thibs of any blame, but also promotes a narrative that coach Thibs is only responsible for coaching up his stars. Every team has lesser talent on their benches...that's why they are not starters! But the great coaches win because they develop confidence in their reserves and coach them up to get meaningful minutes out of them.

Not Thibs. Even though a bench he largely constructed has 6 former first round picks and several lottery picks on it (plus Belly who was an elite player in Europe), Thibs panics during games and yanks his reserves out at the first hint of distress. NBA players will tell you that they need regular minutes to play their best, and Thibs absurd out-of-step reliance on his starters seldom allows his reserves to even break a sweat. The coach is responsible for the play of his ENTIRE roster, not just the five guys who are easiest to coach.

So, what happens when he actually coaches like an NBA coach and gives his bench a more reasonable rotation? Well, let's look at last night's game. For the second consecutive night, he allowed his bench to play more (or in the Portland game, a similar amount of minutes) than the other team...and look how they responded:

Gorgui +13
Tyus +10
Crawford +27
Even MGH +2

That's a +52 for this pathetic bench the POBO gave this coach. And because they weren't drained at the end of the game, the starters also didn't fold at the end of the game like they so often do under Thibs, and we turned the tables and actually OUTSCORED an opponent in the 4th quarter for the second consecutive night! Hmm, the worst 4th quarter team in the league outscores good teams in back to back games...I wonder what was different in those two games. Anybody have any theories? I'm still waiting...

Will Thibs learn from this? I don't know. I allow myself to think he has turned the corner and learned something, but then he comes out in the next game and plays his bench 30 minutes. If he coaches correctly in Phoenix next game (like he hasn't in the prior two Suns losses...pathetic), we will win and I may start drinking the Kool Aid again. But color me skeptical until he really shows that he has turned the corner.

This is a 52-win team if Thibs would only use his entire roster like other coaches do.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Hey something that shows that Wiggins isn't the worst player in the league.

I was a guy who complained about the minutes, but after reading this on Reddit, I can see the pickle that thibs is in. Then I realize that he's the one that brought this bench together.