Wolves Sans Butler - 19 Game Remaining

[Lipoli390]

I thought I'd start a clean thread devoted solely to discussing the Wolves' prospects for the remainder of this season assuming Butler won't return. I'll start with my analysis from another thread, which I've copied below:

I agree that this team, even without Butler, has the firepower to outscore teams. Last night was a perfect example as the Wolves put up 120 points against the Bulls. Note that the Wolves scored 120 points even though both KAT and Belly grossly underperformed from behind the arc - KAT going 0-5 and Belly 1-6. You won't see either miss that badly from behind the arc very often.

The Wolves defense was surprisingly good last night. Although the Bulls shore 46.7% from the field, the Wolves did hold them to 102 points and 26% from behind the arc - below the Bulls' season averages. I thought last night might have been Wiggins' best game of the season defensively. He was in total lock-down mode the entire game. Teague was pesky and Taj was Taj. Towns had one of his worst games defensively -- looking too much like he did the first half of the season. That can't happen again if this team is going to finish in the top 6.

I'm not going to get my hope up too high. But Cam made some good points about what we have even with Butler out, including an allstar potential all-NBA type center (Towns), a former all-star PG still in his prime (Teague), a great young volume scoring wing with all-NBA talent who has shown he can be a great lock-down defender (Wiggins), a former 6th man award winner off the bench still playing at that level (Crawford) and a super solid consistent starting PF (Gibson).

So it's important to note even without Butler, this isn't the team from last season. Thankfully, Thibs didn't just add Butler to the roster last summer. He added Gibson and Crawford while also essentially swapping Ricky for Teague. Adding Gibson was a huge upgrade over Gorgui in our starting lineup while moving Gorgui to the bench substantially strengthened our second unit. Adding Crawford was another tremendous upgrade to our second unit. Both Gibson and Crawford have also no doubt helped the younger players from last season through their leadership and mentorship both on and of the court. Even though I don't like Teague's contract, I have long since conceded that Teague was an overall upgrade over Ricky as our starting PG and I get the sense that Teague is just starting to hit his stride after a period of adjusting to a new team and then coming back from his knee injury. Finally, some of the players back from last season are clearly better. Towns is much better defensively than last season -- a product of experience but probably also a result of Butler's presence both on and off the court. And Tyus Jones is clearly better as he's proven to be an excellent second unit PG who can also play well as a starter if called upon.

Last season's team was actually playing pretty well before Zach and Belly went down. Take that team with a better Towns and the offseason additions mentioned above. That's why I still have hope this team can hang on and finish in the top 6. Unfortunately, I still see us sliding out of the top 6 if Jimmy misses all or most of our remaining games. And as I've mentioned before, if we don't finish in the top 6 I would just as soon see the Wolves slide to #9 and get another lottery pick rather than watch this team get demoralized by a lopsided sweep at the hands of the Warriors or Rockets.

With 19 games left on the Wolves schedule, I see 6 games that this team absolutely should win with the talent we have in Butler's absence: @Kings, Grizzlies, Hawks, @Mavs, Jazz and Grizzlies again. Winning all six, the Wolves would finish with 43 wins. That would probably leave the Wolves finishing somewhere in the 7-9 range in the West. I see 5 other games that I assumed we'd win with Jimmy playing, but that are still winnable even without him: Celtics, Clippers, @Knicks, @ Lakers, and Nuggets. I could see Jimmy returning for that last home game April 11 against the Nuggets. If we win all five and the other six, we'd finish with 48 wins, likely leading to a finish in the 3-5 range.

So let the prognostications begin!

[mjs34]

are you trying to steal big O's thunder?

[Lipoli390]

are you trying to steal big O's thunder?

Lol. Whoops. I didn't realize the Big O had already gone down the same path. Oh well, I think mine's better. :).

[Big O [enjin:13874644]]

are you trying to steal big O's thunder?

Lol. Whoops. I didn't realize the Big O had already gone down the same path. Oh well, I think mine's better. :).

I agree - no worries!

[Big O [enjin:13874644]]

The point I will reiterate is how tight the race is right now with all of the 25-27 loss teams sitting at 3-9. even Utah at 10 is only out of this range by 2 losses and they are playing the better ball than many of the teams in front of them. My guess is that the Wolves continue at a 50-50 clip until it is clear that Jimmy is not coming back this season and the reality of playing Houston or Golden State in the first round sets in. At that point I see frustration setting in and us ending up out of the playoffs.

[Monster]

The point I will reiterate is how tight the race is right now with all of the 25-27 loss teams sitting at 3-9. even Utah at 10 is only out of this range by 2 losses and they are playing the better ball than many of the teams in front of them. My guess is that the Wolves continue at a 50-50 clip until it is clear that Jimmy is not coming back this season and the reality of playing Houston or Golden State in the first round sets in. At that point I see frustration setting in and us ending up out of the playoffs.

Later this week after Jimmy has his procedure we should have a better idea if we have any hope of him being back this season or even the playoffs.

If this team can keep playing .500 they will have a chance to at least get in the playoffs although I obviously assume they have to be at least a little better than that. The next few games they have a chance to do a bit better than that if they play somewhat well. How many of these other teams that have a shot get really hot? Portland has done it a couple years in a row. What kind of run do they have in them this year? I think it's going to be a fun finish although stressful. We need some help if GS and Houston can win a lot of their games against teams we are going against that will help and hopefully some eastern conference teams can help us out like the Bucks and Cavs today.

Fingers crossed. It would be a pretty good accomplishment to stay in the race and get to the playoffs maybe even to the 7th 8th seed. It would be nice to have 2 picks but having a pick next year instead of this year wouldn't be too horrible either since otherwise we wouldn't have one.

[Lipoli390]

The point I will reiterate is how tight the race is right now with all of the 25-27 loss teams sitting at 3-9. even Utah at 10 is only out of this range by 2 losses and they are playing the better ball than many of the teams in front of them. My guess is that the Wolves continue at a 50-50 clip until it is clear that Jimmy is not coming back this season and the reality of playing Houston or Golden State in the first round sets in. At that point I see frustration setting in and us ending up out of the playoffs.

I we win 9 of our next 19 games, just under .500, we'll end up 46-36. I just don't the Wolves ending up in the lottery at 10 games over .500. In my view, that record would put the Wolves no lower than 6th in the West.

Think about it. If the Wolves end up with 46 wins, there Pelicans and Clippers would have to win 47 to finish ahead of us in the standings. To finish with 47 games wins and pass the Wolves, the Pelicans would have to win 15 of their final 24 games (15-9). That's a tall order. The Clippers would have to win 16 of their final 24 games (16-8). That tells me, the Wolves are unlikely to finish lower than 7th if the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games.

The Nuggets would have to win 14 of their remaining 23 games (14-9) to get to 47 wins and pass the Wolves while the Blazers would have to win 13 of their remaining 22 games (13-9). I don't see both of these teams doing that. So that tells me the Wolves end up no lower than 6th.

Finally, the Thunder would have to win 13 of their remaining 21 games (13-8), which they are definitely capable of doing, but it's no sure thing given that team's inconsistency all season. And the Spurs would have to win 12 of their remaining 22 games (22-10) without Kawhi. That's definitely something the Spurs can do, but they seem to be running out of steam.

So if you're right and the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games, I think we're looking at a 5th or 6th place finish for the Wolves. My concern is whether the Wolves can win as many as 9 of their remaining games. I'm still only seeing 6 games that we absolutely should win. But as I noted, there are 5 others I can definitely see us winning. It will be interesting.

[mjs34]

The point I will reiterate is how tight the race is right now with all of the 25-27 loss teams sitting at 3-9. even Utah at 10 is only out of this range by 2 losses and they are playing the better ball than many of the teams in front of them. My guess is that the Wolves continue at a 50-50 clip until it is clear that Jimmy is not coming back this season and the reality of playing Houston or Golden State in the first round sets in. At that point I see frustration setting in and us ending up out of the playoffs.

I we win 9 of our next 19 games, just under .500, we'll end up 46-36. I just don't the Wolves ending up in the lottery at 10 games over .500. In my view, that record would put the Wolves no lower than 6th in the West.

Think about it. If the Wolves end up with 46 wins, there Pelicans and Clippers would have to win 47 to finish ahead of us in the standings. To finish with 47 games wins and pass the Wolves, the Pelicans would have to win 15 of their final 24 games (15-9). That's a tall order. The Clippers would have to win 16 of their final 24 games (16-8). That tells me, the Wolves are unlikely to finish lower than 7th if the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games.

The Nuggets would have to win 14 of their remaining 23 games (14-9) to get to 47 wins and pass the Wolves while the Blazers would have to win 13 of their remaining 22 games (13-9). I don't see both of these teams doing that. So that tells me the Wolves end up no lower than 6th.

Finally, the Thunder would have to win 13 of their remaining 21 games (13-8), which they are definitely capable of doing, but it's no sure thing given that team's inconsistency all season. And the Spurs would have to win 12 of their remaining 22 games (22-10) without Kawhi. That's definitely something the Spurs can do, but they seem to be running out of steam.

So if you're right and the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games, I think we're looking at a 5th or 6th place finish for the Wolves. My concern is whether the Wolves can win as many as 9 of their remaining games. I'm still only seeing 6 games that we absolutely should win. But as I noted, there are 5 others I can definitely see us winning. It will be interesting.

So you're saying there's a chance!

[Wolvesfan21]

ESPN just said Butler already had his surgery today.

[Lipoli390]

The point I will reiterate is how tight the race is right now with all of the 25-27 loss teams sitting at 3-9. even Utah at 10 is only out of this range by 2 losses and they are playing the better ball than many of the teams in front of them. My guess is that the Wolves continue at a 50-50 clip until it is clear that Jimmy is not coming back this season and the reality of playing Houston or Golden State in the first round sets in. At that point I see frustration setting in and us ending up out of the playoffs.

I we win 9 of our next 19 games, just under .500, we'll end up 46-36. I just don't the Wolves ending up in the lottery at 10 games over .500. In my view, that record would put the Wolves no lower than 6th in the West.

Think about it. If the Wolves end up with 46 wins, there Pelicans and Clippers would have to win 47 to finish ahead of us in the standings. To finish with 47 games wins and pass the Wolves, the Pelicans would have to win 15 of their final 24 games (15-9). That's a tall order. The Clippers would have to win 16 of their final 24 games (16-8). That tells me, the Wolves are unlikely to finish lower than 7th if the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games.

The Nuggets would have to win 14 of their remaining 23 games (14-9) to get to 47 wins and pass the Wolves while the Blazers would have to win 13 of their remaining 22 games (13-9). I don't see both of these teams doing that. So that tells me the Wolves end up no lower than 6th.

Finally, the Thunder would have to win 13 of their remaining 21 games (13-8), which they are definitely capable of doing, but it's no sure thing given that team's inconsistency all season. And the Spurs would have to win 12 of their remaining 22 games (22-10) without Kawhi. That's definitely something the Spurs can do, but they seem to be running out of steam.

So if you're right and the Wolves win 9 of their remaining games, I think we're looking at a 5th or 6th place finish for the Wolves. My concern is whether the Wolves can win as many as 9 of their remaining games. I'm still only seeing 6 games that we absolutely should win. But as I noted, there are 5 others I can definitely see us winning. It will be interesting.

So you're saying there's a chance!

Lol.