Wiggins is a disappointment.

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AbeVigodaLive
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Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Hey. It worked last time...
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bleedspeed
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by bleedspeed »

What worked?
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Carlos Danger
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

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I'm still a big Wiggins fan, but I certainly think he needs to do more. In relation to the Advanced Stats I use most, he's not contributing at the same level as KAT and LaVine. He's still young and obviously has a ton of untapped talent. But he's also in his third year and I'd like to see more year over year growth.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Carlos Danger wrote:I'm still a big Wiggins fan, but I certainly think he needs to do more. In relation to the Advanced Stats I use most, he's not contributing at the same level as KAT and LaVine. He's still young and obviously has a ton of untapped talent. But he's also in his third year and I'd like to see more year over year growth.



Too early (35 games) to make definitive judgements... but do you think he's regressed at all?
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

I don't think he's regressed. His 3-point shot is improved, but his free throw rate is down, so that is kind of a wash. Offensively, he's being asked to take on far greater responsibility as a play maker and that is stretching his capabilities in a way that sometimes leads to poor outcomes, but COULD lead to better long-term development.

Wiggins may be on the DeMar DeRozan path of development, where it literally isn't until year 5 or greater before he starts putting the whole package together in terms of being an efficient, impact scorer and playmaker. Wiggins is further along than DeRozan was at this same stage in his career in a number of offensive metrics, so I do think he can eventually match or surpass DeRozan on that side of ball.

The biggest issue to me continues to be his overall defensive impact. Again, that can improve with time and experience, but I now question whether he can actually be a plus team defender or just adequate.
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Brooklyn_Wolves [enjin:14608167]
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by Brooklyn_Wolves [enjin:14608167] »

Q12543 wrote:I don't think he's regressed. His 3-point shot is improved, but his free throw rate is down, so that is kind of a wash. Offensively, he's being asked to take on far greater responsibility as a play maker and that is stretching his capabilities in a way that sometimes leads to poor outcomes, but COULD lead to better long-term development.

Wiggins may be on the DeMar DeRozan path of development, where it literally isn't until year 5 or greater before he starts putting the whole package together in terms of being an efficient, impact scorer and playmaker. Wiggins is further along than DeRozan was at this same stage in his career in a number of offensive metrics, so I do think he can eventually match or surpass DeRozan on that side of ball.

The biggest issue to me continues to be his overall defensive impact. Again, that can improve with time and experience, but I now question whether he can actually be a plus team defender or just adequate.


I disagree that he improved his outside shooting. He shot 41% on 3s post ASG break last season. This year he had super hot November and has shot less than 28% since then. His %s are still on steep decline currently. I don't think it's a sign of an improved shooter, but of a very steaky one.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Brooklyn_Wolves wrote:
Q12543 wrote:I don't think he's regressed. His 3-point shot is improved, but his free throw rate is down, so that is kind of a wash. Offensively, he's being asked to take on far greater responsibility as a play maker and that is stretching his capabilities in a way that sometimes leads to poor outcomes, but COULD lead to better long-term development.

Wiggins may be on the DeMar DeRozan path of development, where it literally isn't until year 5 or greater before he starts putting the whole package together in terms of being an efficient, impact scorer and playmaker. Wiggins is further along than DeRozan was at this same stage in his career in a number of offensive metrics, so I do think he can eventually match or surpass DeRozan on that side of ball.

The biggest issue to me continues to be his overall defensive impact. Again, that can improve with time and experience, but I now question whether he can actually be a plus team defender or just adequate.


I disagree that he improved his outside shooting. He shot 41% on 3s post ASG break last season. This year he had super hot November and has shot less then 28% since then. He's %s are still on steep decline currently. I don't think it's a sign of an improved shooter, but of a very steaky one.



Let's see where he ends up. Right now, he's a slightly below average three point shooter at 34.9%. The league average is 35.8%. The Wolves as a team are at 35.1%. Wiggins was at 30.5% entering this season.

Overall, Wiggins fg% is about the same. FT% about the same. Rebounds about the same. Assists about the same. TOs about the same. Same-same-same-same.

Granted, I do dig being given more opportunities for growth. In theory, it should work in the end. I compare it to his rookie season when Flip had him finish one game on D vs. Zach Randolph and start out the next game vs. Chris Paul. He was destroyed by both, but you could see the reasoning behind it. The rub is that it didn't lead anywhere. He's still not a great defender... and even a bad one at times.

My issue is that it has to pay off at some point. 3 decades of unfulfilled potential and promise wears on a guy, you know! If not in Year 3... it HAS to be a significant improvement next season when the team will be staring at extending him for the max.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

On the aggregate, Wiggins hasn't improved his efficiency overall because he's traded off better outside shooting for fewer attempts at the rim (and also fewer trips to the foul line). However, he has absolutely improved as an outside shooter steadily.

Here is his progression from rookie, 2nd, and 3rd year:

10-16 feet: 38%, 38.6%, 39.6%
16 feet to <3: 30%, 34.7%, 37.5%
3 pointers: 31%, 30%, 34.9%

The great news is that he is on a nice linear upward trajectory with his outside shooting from various distances. His current percentages aren't great, but they are solid. The problem is that he still takes too many shots from the 10 feet to < 3-pt range. A lot of these are tough contested mid-range turnarounds and pull up long 2's off the dribble. I'm not saying these shots shouldn't be in his arsenal, but right now he relies on them too much.

The ingredients are there for greatness on the offensive side of the ball. And when you delve deeper into the details, there are signs of tangible improvement. My frustration with him tends to be on all the other stuff, because I do see an eventual light at the end of the tunnel offensively.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

Q12543 wrote:On the aggregate, Wiggins hasn't improved his efficiency overall because he's traded off better outside shooting for fewer attempts at the rim (and also fewer trips to the foul line). However, he has absolutely improved as an outside shooter steadily.

Here is his progression from rookie, 2nd, and 3rd year:

10-16 feet: 38%, 38.6%, 39.6%
16 feet to <3: 30%, 34.7%, 37.5%
3 pointers: 31%, 30%, 34.9%

The great news is that he is on a nice linear upward trajectory with his outside shooting from various distances. His current percentages aren't great, but they are solid. The problem is that he still takes too many shots from the 10 feet to < 3-pt range. A lot of these are tough contested mid-range turnarounds and pull up long 2's off the dribble. I'm not saying these shots shouldn't be in his arsenal, but right now he relies on them too much.

The ingredients are there for greatness on the offensive side of the ball. And when you delve deeper into the details, there are signs of tangible improvement. My frustration with him tends to be on all the other stuff, because I do see an eventual light at the end of the tunnel offensively.



In bold... do you have the volume numbers too?

Because if he's taking more 16 - 23 foot shots at the expense of closer shots... that's a very serious concern. Both with Wiggins and Thibs' organization.

So many other teams have already figured out it's the most inefficient shot in basketball. When will the Wolves?
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Carlos Danger
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Re: Wiggins is a disappointment.

Post by Carlos Danger »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Carlos Danger wrote:I'm still a big Wiggins fan, but I certainly think he needs to do more. In relation to the Advanced Stats I use most, he's not contributing at the same level as KAT and LaVine. He's still young and obviously has a ton of untapped talent. But he's also in his third year and I'd like to see more year over year growth.



Too early (35 games) to make definitive judgements... but do you think he's regressed at all?


I probably wouldn't go so far as to say "regressed". But he hasn't developed as fast I was hoping. I wanted him to be "the guy" i.e. "climb on my back - we're not losing this game". I'm not seeing that happen much. He sure has the talent to be that guy. But it's a changing dynamic now with three young guys - all the same age. Any of them can be "the guy". It's sort of interesting watching a pecking order develop. I sort of believe in the pack mentality where there is a clear "Alpha". I wanted Wiggins to be the Alpha, but I don't think that's the case.
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