Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
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Coolbreeze44
- Posts: 13192
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
5-on-5 predictions: Will Wolves make playoffs? Trade Rubio?
By NBA Insiders
Our NBA Insiders answer the big questions for the Wolves in 2016-17.
Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins turn the Wolves around? What moves will Tom Thibodeau make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Minnesota's 2016-17 season.
1. What do you expect from Tom Thibodeau as Wolves coach and president?
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: Patience. Thibodeau and general manager Scott Layden left $10 million in cap space unused and didn't make a significant trade to alter their core. They had talks with veteran free agents but didn't go wild chasing players past their prime like Pau Gasol or Luol Deng. Thibodeau and Layden are supposedly trying to modernize, and you see some of that, but both are, without question, old school. You will certainly see that going forward.
Projections
How will the Minnesota Timberwolves do this year? Here are our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus and Summer Forecast.
RPM
West standing: No. 11
Wins: 37.3
Summer Forecast
West standing: No. 10
Record: 39-43
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: As a coach, I expect Thibodeau to make an immediate impact. This team underachieved defensively, given the number of plus defenders the Timberwolves have on their roster, so we can expect a rapid improvement on that end of the floor and a more gradual improvement offensively. As a president, it's a bit trickier.
Coaches generally lack the disposition to be effective front-office leaders, mainly because their desire to win now overwhelms their ability to be patient and consider the bigger picture. Thibs is surely aware of this, and he will defer to Layden early on. But the day is coming when the Wolves will consummate a short-sighted transaction at the expense of a greater future asset, and it will be at the behest of the president.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I hope Thibodeau concentrates on coaching, because that's what he's good at. In my "Adjusted Coach Plus-Minus" -- a metric that estimates the impact of a coach on the performance of his players -- he ranks sixth among the 130 coaches who have coached in the NBA from 2001 to 2016.
Nate Duncan, ESPN Insider: Many coach-president hybrids pursue short-term thinking in cap management to the detriment of the team's ultimate ceiling. But the Wolves maintained flexibility and didn't sign any albatross contracts this summer. As of now, I project Minnesota with up to $39 million in cap space to use on a better free-agent class. At that point Thibodeau will be armed with a year's worth of information on what pieces are needed to help the Wolves execute his vision going forward.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I expect to see, in the short term, a jump on defense that should lift the Timberwolves to playoff contention. So far, the work of the Thibodeau-Layden front office has been encouraging. Minnesota spent cautiously on role players and preserved max-level cap space for next summer and potentially beyond. But whether Thibodeau can see the big picture when handling player minutes remains to be seen.
2. How many future stars do the Timberwolves have?
Elhassan: 2.5. Karl-Anthony Towns is the no-brainer who looks like he might be more than just a star (and that future is a lot sooner than it might seem). Then, between Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, there's a good chance they'll get at least one more star. They all have terrific gifts, both physical and skill-wise, but development is definitely a key.
Pelton: 2.5. Towns will probably be an All-Star this season. Wiggins has an excellent chance of getting there along the way with Thibodeau harnessing his defensive potential. And between LaVine, Dunn and possibly even a reassessment of Ricky Rubio's value on a winning team, Minnesota should find one other star.
Engelmann: Depends on how you define "star." Rubio is already a star, according to plus-minus metrics. Towns, Wiggins and LaVine have the potential to become stars in the more traditional sense, but I see LaVine and Wiggins more as a DeMar DeRozan-type players, as they don't seem to impact the game on both ends of the floor.
Windhorst: Depends on your definition of star. Towns is a star now, as he may be the most complete center in the NBA by the end of the season.
Wiggins has had an elite scoring start to his career, but he doesn't do enough on defense or in other areas like rebounding. His development into a more driven player and a more refined product is Thibs' No. 1 job. That will be the difference between this team being one of potential versus legitimacy. Wiggins' growth is the Wolves' growth.
Duncan: If a star is a top-15 player, the answer is one: Towns. While Wiggins has immense physical potential, he hasn't played to nearly that level so far in his career. He has a lot of ground to make up with his shooting and floor game to get there, although Thibodeau should help with the latter. I also don't see Kris Dunn or Zach LaVine with that potential either, since Dunn is old for a rookie and I don't see LaVine having the versatility or efficiency required to get there.
Will the Wolves trade Ricky Rubio?
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Timberwolves this season?
Windhorst: They're still very young, and they lack proven leadership. Towns wants to be the leader, but that's an impossible ask for a 21-year-old. The players have so many barriers to break and a coach who is going to really challenge them, so it's going to be a type of stress at times that none of them are used to.
Engelmann: Defense at the wing positions. Yes, Thibodeau will get them to defend better than they did last season, but the quartet of LaVine, Wiggins, Brandon Rush and Shabazz Muhammad averaged a defensive real plus-minus of minus-3 last season, with no one surpassing a mark of minus-1.8. The Wolves were 28th in defensive rating last year. Thibodeau has his work cut out for him.
Duncan: Whether the Wolves will play with two bigs. Towns' shooting at the 5 causes a ton of mismatches. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Gorgui Dieng is probably a better player than anyone the Wolves have at the 4 right now. Will the Wolves make a big contractual commitment to Dieng, or move him to play a more modern style?
Elhassan: Shooting from 3 is a major concern. This team was near the bottom of the league in makes, attempts and efficiency, and the problem was addressed only mildly in the offseason in the form of Brandon Rush. They can somewhat offset this with sheer volume, but Thibs has never presided over a team that was better than middle of the pack in attempts.
Pelton: Outside shooting. While SCHOENE projects Minnesota making an above-average 35.7 percent beyond the arc, the Timberwolves are projected to take the fewest 3-pointers in the league by a wide margin (127 fewer than the Indiana Pacers, who project 29th). Thibodeau's emphasis on taking 3s instead of long 2s should help, but this team is still low on shooting.
4. What trade makes the most sense for the Wolves?
Engelmann: From a pure basketball standpoint, I'd trade Wiggins and LaVine, as I think less highly of them than most people do. They might be flashy and be able to score lots of points, but they seem to severely lack good defensive instincts.
Elhassan: Easier said than done, but shooting! The Wolves have some duplication on this roster, the kind they can package together to get some bites on the trade market. But shooting is always a premium in the NBA, and teams that have it are usually reluctant to relinquish it.
Pelton: If anyone wanted to take a shot at getting more out of Adreian Payne, I'd be happy to clear the roster spot. Otherwise, Minnesota should probably wait to see what it has before making any big moves.
Duncan: The Wolves better make sure Dunn is a legitimate option at point guard before moving Rubio. But while I believe Rubio is criminally underrated, his shooting flaws could limit the team's ability to go deep in the playoffs in future years.
It also makes sense to trade Dieng rather than pay him the up to $20 million per season he'll likely want in his next contract, but the fact that he will hit restricted free agency in July complicates matters. In any case, the trade target should be a combo forward who can shoot 3s and defend to play next to Towns.
Windhorst: They still need more shooting. Everyone wants shooting, I know, but no one is going to guard their point guards outside. Rubio is likely headed to the trade market at some point, and replacing him with a point guard who can shoot, even if he's a lesser defender, might be a boost.
By the way, for all those folks who want to see Jimmy Butler in Minnesota, here's a reality check: the Bulls and Thibs will not be doing business on anything anytime soon. Put away the trade machine.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Timberwolves will make the playoffs.
Elhassan: Fiction. It would be a great story, and they are going to be one of the most improved teams, but looking at a very young roster that has some structural issues its needs to overcome, I just don't see them getting over the hump this year.
Windhorst: Fact. I believe they were secretly a 35-win team, even though they won 29 last year. I think Thibs and improvement from the young players will get them seven to 10 more wins, putting them in low-40s. That gets them to the postseason for the first time in 13 years.
Duncan: Fiction. I predict 40 wins, though the upside is far higher, given the arrival of Thibs and all the young talent. But getting to the 43 wins I think it will take to make the Western Conference playoffs this year assumes a massive defensive improvement that could take more than a season for Thibs to create. Minnesota also had great injury luck last year.
Engelmann: Fiction. I think finishing in the top seven is out of the question, as the competition for those spots is too fierce. After that, I see Dallas, Denver, Memphis and Minnesota fighting for the remaining playoff spot, resulting in a roughly 25 percent chance for the Wolves to make it.
Pelton: Faction. I'd put the Timberwolves eighth in the West in likelihood of making the playoffs, but because there are so many teams in contention, I don't think any of the teams outside the top seven has anywhere close to a 50-50 shot of making it.
BONUS: The view that the Wolves will become a championship contender is _______________.
Windhorst: Grounded in both history and reality. They have two players who have a chance to be in the top three at their positions, plus assets, cap space and excellent coaching. Historically, this is the formula. It's just a matter of execution and some good fortune.
Duncan: Reasonable. Towns is that good. Thibodeau will get them to defend eventually. And either Dunn, LaVine or Wiggins should make a decent second banana. Plus, there is that 2017 cap space lurking to add talent. By the time Golden State finally stops winning championships, the Wolves appear best positioned among the young teams in the league to be their successor.
Elhassan: Expected, but not a given. The path to contention is riddled with so many different pitfalls: injuries, personal agendas and plain-ol' not being good enough, to name a few. The Wolves have most of the ingredients to become one of the best teams in basketball eventually, but ingredients still need to be mixed together in a recipe before they can be served on the dinner table.
Engelmann: Optimistic. The Wolves haven't exactly been a very successful franchise thus far: They haven't made the playoffs since 2004, and they have won only 39 percent of their games since their inception. Will this group, which so far has been defensively anemic, lead the Wolves deep into the playoffs? I'll believe it when I see it.
Pelton: Inevitable. Towns looks like the kind of top-10 player necessary for a championship contender, and between the young talent already on the roster and the cap flexibility Minnesota possesses, the team should be able to put together a core of talent that can compete in the Western Conference for years, assuming health.
By NBA Insiders
Our NBA Insiders answer the big questions for the Wolves in 2016-17.
Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins turn the Wolves around? What moves will Tom Thibodeau make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Minnesota's 2016-17 season.
1. What do you expect from Tom Thibodeau as Wolves coach and president?
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: Patience. Thibodeau and general manager Scott Layden left $10 million in cap space unused and didn't make a significant trade to alter their core. They had talks with veteran free agents but didn't go wild chasing players past their prime like Pau Gasol or Luol Deng. Thibodeau and Layden are supposedly trying to modernize, and you see some of that, but both are, without question, old school. You will certainly see that going forward.
Projections
How will the Minnesota Timberwolves do this year? Here are our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus and Summer Forecast.
RPM
West standing: No. 11
Wins: 37.3
Summer Forecast
West standing: No. 10
Record: 39-43
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: As a coach, I expect Thibodeau to make an immediate impact. This team underachieved defensively, given the number of plus defenders the Timberwolves have on their roster, so we can expect a rapid improvement on that end of the floor and a more gradual improvement offensively. As a president, it's a bit trickier.
Coaches generally lack the disposition to be effective front-office leaders, mainly because their desire to win now overwhelms their ability to be patient and consider the bigger picture. Thibs is surely aware of this, and he will defer to Layden early on. But the day is coming when the Wolves will consummate a short-sighted transaction at the expense of a greater future asset, and it will be at the behest of the president.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I hope Thibodeau concentrates on coaching, because that's what he's good at. In my "Adjusted Coach Plus-Minus" -- a metric that estimates the impact of a coach on the performance of his players -- he ranks sixth among the 130 coaches who have coached in the NBA from 2001 to 2016.
Nate Duncan, ESPN Insider: Many coach-president hybrids pursue short-term thinking in cap management to the detriment of the team's ultimate ceiling. But the Wolves maintained flexibility and didn't sign any albatross contracts this summer. As of now, I project Minnesota with up to $39 million in cap space to use on a better free-agent class. At that point Thibodeau will be armed with a year's worth of information on what pieces are needed to help the Wolves execute his vision going forward.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I expect to see, in the short term, a jump on defense that should lift the Timberwolves to playoff contention. So far, the work of the Thibodeau-Layden front office has been encouraging. Minnesota spent cautiously on role players and preserved max-level cap space for next summer and potentially beyond. But whether Thibodeau can see the big picture when handling player minutes remains to be seen.
2. How many future stars do the Timberwolves have?
Elhassan: 2.5. Karl-Anthony Towns is the no-brainer who looks like he might be more than just a star (and that future is a lot sooner than it might seem). Then, between Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, there's a good chance they'll get at least one more star. They all have terrific gifts, both physical and skill-wise, but development is definitely a key.
Pelton: 2.5. Towns will probably be an All-Star this season. Wiggins has an excellent chance of getting there along the way with Thibodeau harnessing his defensive potential. And between LaVine, Dunn and possibly even a reassessment of Ricky Rubio's value on a winning team, Minnesota should find one other star.
Engelmann: Depends on how you define "star." Rubio is already a star, according to plus-minus metrics. Towns, Wiggins and LaVine have the potential to become stars in the more traditional sense, but I see LaVine and Wiggins more as a DeMar DeRozan-type players, as they don't seem to impact the game on both ends of the floor.
Windhorst: Depends on your definition of star. Towns is a star now, as he may be the most complete center in the NBA by the end of the season.
Wiggins has had an elite scoring start to his career, but he doesn't do enough on defense or in other areas like rebounding. His development into a more driven player and a more refined product is Thibs' No. 1 job. That will be the difference between this team being one of potential versus legitimacy. Wiggins' growth is the Wolves' growth.
Duncan: If a star is a top-15 player, the answer is one: Towns. While Wiggins has immense physical potential, he hasn't played to nearly that level so far in his career. He has a lot of ground to make up with his shooting and floor game to get there, although Thibodeau should help with the latter. I also don't see Kris Dunn or Zach LaVine with that potential either, since Dunn is old for a rookie and I don't see LaVine having the versatility or efficiency required to get there.
Will the Wolves trade Ricky Rubio?
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Timberwolves this season?
Windhorst: They're still very young, and they lack proven leadership. Towns wants to be the leader, but that's an impossible ask for a 21-year-old. The players have so many barriers to break and a coach who is going to really challenge them, so it's going to be a type of stress at times that none of them are used to.
Engelmann: Defense at the wing positions. Yes, Thibodeau will get them to defend better than they did last season, but the quartet of LaVine, Wiggins, Brandon Rush and Shabazz Muhammad averaged a defensive real plus-minus of minus-3 last season, with no one surpassing a mark of minus-1.8. The Wolves were 28th in defensive rating last year. Thibodeau has his work cut out for him.
Duncan: Whether the Wolves will play with two bigs. Towns' shooting at the 5 causes a ton of mismatches. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Gorgui Dieng is probably a better player than anyone the Wolves have at the 4 right now. Will the Wolves make a big contractual commitment to Dieng, or move him to play a more modern style?
Elhassan: Shooting from 3 is a major concern. This team was near the bottom of the league in makes, attempts and efficiency, and the problem was addressed only mildly in the offseason in the form of Brandon Rush. They can somewhat offset this with sheer volume, but Thibs has never presided over a team that was better than middle of the pack in attempts.
Pelton: Outside shooting. While SCHOENE projects Minnesota making an above-average 35.7 percent beyond the arc, the Timberwolves are projected to take the fewest 3-pointers in the league by a wide margin (127 fewer than the Indiana Pacers, who project 29th). Thibodeau's emphasis on taking 3s instead of long 2s should help, but this team is still low on shooting.
4. What trade makes the most sense for the Wolves?
Engelmann: From a pure basketball standpoint, I'd trade Wiggins and LaVine, as I think less highly of them than most people do. They might be flashy and be able to score lots of points, but they seem to severely lack good defensive instincts.
Elhassan: Easier said than done, but shooting! The Wolves have some duplication on this roster, the kind they can package together to get some bites on the trade market. But shooting is always a premium in the NBA, and teams that have it are usually reluctant to relinquish it.
Pelton: If anyone wanted to take a shot at getting more out of Adreian Payne, I'd be happy to clear the roster spot. Otherwise, Minnesota should probably wait to see what it has before making any big moves.
Duncan: The Wolves better make sure Dunn is a legitimate option at point guard before moving Rubio. But while I believe Rubio is criminally underrated, his shooting flaws could limit the team's ability to go deep in the playoffs in future years.
It also makes sense to trade Dieng rather than pay him the up to $20 million per season he'll likely want in his next contract, but the fact that he will hit restricted free agency in July complicates matters. In any case, the trade target should be a combo forward who can shoot 3s and defend to play next to Towns.
Windhorst: They still need more shooting. Everyone wants shooting, I know, but no one is going to guard their point guards outside. Rubio is likely headed to the trade market at some point, and replacing him with a point guard who can shoot, even if he's a lesser defender, might be a boost.
By the way, for all those folks who want to see Jimmy Butler in Minnesota, here's a reality check: the Bulls and Thibs will not be doing business on anything anytime soon. Put away the trade machine.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Timberwolves will make the playoffs.
Elhassan: Fiction. It would be a great story, and they are going to be one of the most improved teams, but looking at a very young roster that has some structural issues its needs to overcome, I just don't see them getting over the hump this year.
Windhorst: Fact. I believe they were secretly a 35-win team, even though they won 29 last year. I think Thibs and improvement from the young players will get them seven to 10 more wins, putting them in low-40s. That gets them to the postseason for the first time in 13 years.
Duncan: Fiction. I predict 40 wins, though the upside is far higher, given the arrival of Thibs and all the young talent. But getting to the 43 wins I think it will take to make the Western Conference playoffs this year assumes a massive defensive improvement that could take more than a season for Thibs to create. Minnesota also had great injury luck last year.
Engelmann: Fiction. I think finishing in the top seven is out of the question, as the competition for those spots is too fierce. After that, I see Dallas, Denver, Memphis and Minnesota fighting for the remaining playoff spot, resulting in a roughly 25 percent chance for the Wolves to make it.
Pelton: Faction. I'd put the Timberwolves eighth in the West in likelihood of making the playoffs, but because there are so many teams in contention, I don't think any of the teams outside the top seven has anywhere close to a 50-50 shot of making it.
BONUS: The view that the Wolves will become a championship contender is _______________.
Windhorst: Grounded in both history and reality. They have two players who have a chance to be in the top three at their positions, plus assets, cap space and excellent coaching. Historically, this is the formula. It's just a matter of execution and some good fortune.
Duncan: Reasonable. Towns is that good. Thibodeau will get them to defend eventually. And either Dunn, LaVine or Wiggins should make a decent second banana. Plus, there is that 2017 cap space lurking to add talent. By the time Golden State finally stops winning championships, the Wolves appear best positioned among the young teams in the league to be their successor.
Elhassan: Expected, but not a given. The path to contention is riddled with so many different pitfalls: injuries, personal agendas and plain-ol' not being good enough, to name a few. The Wolves have most of the ingredients to become one of the best teams in basketball eventually, but ingredients still need to be mixed together in a recipe before they can be served on the dinner table.
Engelmann: Optimistic. The Wolves haven't exactly been a very successful franchise thus far: They haven't made the playoffs since 2004, and they have won only 39 percent of their games since their inception. Will this group, which so far has been defensively anemic, lead the Wolves deep into the playoffs? I'll believe it when I see it.
Pelton: Inevitable. Towns looks like the kind of top-10 player necessary for a championship contender, and between the young talent already on the roster and the cap flexibility Minnesota possesses, the team should be able to put together a core of talent that can compete in the Western Conference for years, assuming health.
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Coolbreeze44
- Posts: 13192
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
Kind of a sobering article compared to how most of us on the board feel. The consensus seems to be that the current roster has poor structure and that change is inevitable. And major change at that. They generally agree we need shooting, which we all know. But it seems like these guys would be willing to trade major pieces to get it. I find it interesting that some don't think Gorgui is a good fit, and he might be a guy who could bring back value in a trade sooner rather than later.
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
Hate to see Dieng go. But what if we could get a DaRozan level wing for him?
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
Some people just like the idea of trading players but what exactly are you gonna be able to get trading Wiggins and or Lavine that's good make you better? I'm sure there would be plenty of offers if Wiggins was made available.
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
papalrep wrote:Hate to see Dieng go. But what if we could get a DaRozan level wing for him?
I think the problem for the idea of trading either Dieng or Bazz is they are RFA next year. Who is gonna give up much for them with that contract status? I mean sure they can for sure keep the guy no matter what and that does have value but I'm not sure it's going to be enough to deal them if you are also trying to win games especially when it comes to Dieng.
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
I was going to post something positive, but given the results since my other thread I'm just going to say the Wolves are going to such for another decade or more.
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AbeVigodaLive
- Posts: 10272
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
monsterpile wrote:Some people just like the idea of trading players but what exactly are you gonna be able to get trading Wiggins and or Lavine that's good make you better? I'm sure there would be plenty of offers if Wiggins was made available.
Make the team better in 2017... 2018? I think there are lots of players who fit the bill.
The rub is that it could make the team worse in the long run. Is winning 45 games now worth that?
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
- Posts: 13844
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Can someone post the insider article, top of ESPN's NBA page. Thanks much
monsterpile wrote:Some people just like the idea of trading players but what exactly are you gonna be able to get trading Wiggins and or Lavine that's good make you better? I'm sure there would be plenty of offers if Wiggins was made available.
Fair question, although the Wolves may be happy getting equal value if it means the player they get back is a better fit.
Right now I think they should stay pat and see what happens. Things will come into better focus (hopefully) as we get 30-40 games into the season.