Twins and starting pitching

[Tactical unit]

To me the twins future is all about pitching, what they do to address that will determine our success. I think Molitor gets the most out of and develops hitters and lets face it we got quite a few hitters that are pretty good. So will we get SP via FA? Trade?

The farm has: Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, and Tyler Jay as what I would call our best 3 SP prospects.

Berrios is the guy to get excited about, why he wasn't called up last year is completely beyond me. He struck out over a batter per inning last year and had a low walk rate with a low 3's ERA in AA & AAA. Fast Ball sits 92 on most nights but he can rear back for a little extra gas at times. I doubt he throws much harder than that as he develops because he's only six feet tall and is pretty much filled out. In one word his change up is "DIRTY" in a good way! He will use in a 2-0 count or a 0-2 count and dare I say it might be as good as Johan Santana's was back in the day (loved that guy). His third pitch is a breaking ball of some sorts, I still don't know if its a curve or slider and I have seen him pitch a few times. The breaking ball needs the most work but provides enough to keep batters off balance. I also sat right behind home plate and the thing I like most about him is his fast ball and change up come out the same arm slot and it was hard to pick up on witch one he is throwing, he also hides the ball well creating quite a bit of deception. I'd like to see him break camp with a job but the since they held him back last year my guess is they work out a few things in AAA before giving him a chance around mid to late summer. I don't think he's an ace but has the upside of a very solid #2 SP.

Kohl Stewart was our top pick in 2013 and I was all about him being a monster power pitcher, well that hasn't panned out thus far but he is a ground ball machine and only yielded 2 HR's all year last season at high A ball. Now he's only 21yrs old and at 6'3" a buck ninety five, I think he has yet to fill out completely. Therefore I still hold out hope that he can fill into that power pitcher I thought we drafted back in 2013. He's throwing 92 to 94 ish with room for more on the fastball, he's got a sinker that would make Derek Lowe proud. He also sports an old fashioned hammer curve, when you swing a hammer downward you start high and end low, that's the same path his curve takes coming in around chest level and dipping down hard ending around the knees. So while I remain high on Mr. Stewart the real question is why is he only striking out just less than 5 batters per 9inn? My guess is the sinker creates ground ball outs limiting the strikeouts some, but still with his pitch mix I'd expect more strikeouts. Maybe he's tipping his pitches or maybe he offers little deception in the delivery, not quite sure but upside is there just gotta hope he reaches his upside and not his floor.

Tyler Jay is your MN Twins 2015 1st round pick and he's a bit older for such a recent draft pick at 22yrs old he's 6'1" about a buck eighty. He has experience as he went to college and was dominant closer at Illinois. As a closer I think he'll be damn good with a upper 90's fastball, as a starter his fastball will be mid 90's. The curve is arguably his best pitch and the change up plays up because hitters are worried about keeping up with his elite fastball. His ability to command his pitches with accuracy allows him to throw any pitch in any count so hitters can't hone in on any single pitch. So as a closer or high end RP I'd say he's border line ready to play at the big level now if not very soon. As a starter we'd have to wait at least three years in my opinion for them to get him ready to pitch 175-200 innings in a season. Spending #6 overall on a closer is not a good move and the main reason I didn't like the pick at the time. However RP is probably his best position and with a slightly high HR rate per fly ball he may not succeed as a starter. So what do you do with Mr. Jay, wait and try to develop him as a starter? As a legit starter he'd be more valuable than a closer but he's already good as a RP and the wait wouldn't be long. Hard call but either way he will be a contributor to the MN Twins one day.

One thing I believe is that the Twins are on a good path to be competitive in the near future but the quality of SP's will ultimately determine how good they can really be.

[Monster]

FYI few of us do actually post on the Twins forum. :)

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Stephen Gonsalves > Kohl Stewart

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Great to have a new voice posting about the Twins, and especially a Coastie! Years ago I played my college basketball across the street from the Coast Guard Academy, and we squared off against them a few times. Are you stationed in New London or New Haven?

By the way, there is a separate Twins forum to post in, so you don't have to post Twins' stuff in the basketball section. There aren't many of us here, but the discourse if good, and guys like jester, cam and monster are pretty reliable.

Now, on to the topic. I'm actually satisfied with our starting pitching and am more worried about the bullpen. I think we will start the season with Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Duffy and Berrios. Gibson needs to get more consistent, but he keeps getting better. Hughes struggled last year, but he provides innings and strikes, and has this weird pattern of being good in even numbered years. Duffy was terrific last year in every start except his first, and has a big league breaking ball. Santana can always be counted on, and everybody is excited about Barrios. Pelfrey will be gone, but Milone and Nolasco will both challenge those 5 or be ready to go if any of them falters. Ideally we need a lefty in the rotation, and Milone is our best current option. And llke it or not, Nolasco will keep getting chances because we are paying him so much...and although he's been terrible the past two years, he was very good with the dodgers just 2 years ago.

The minors are loaded too. I agree with Cam that Gonsalves is better than Stewart...he's a left-handed stud in the making...but I haven't given up on Stewart either. I'm also really high on Lewis Thorpe who is coming off TJ surgery but isn't even 20 yet. And Tyler Jay could be very good too.

Trevor May wants to be a starter and the Twins are saying they will give him a chance, but I don't think they mean it. There are better options to start, and we need him in the bullpen where he has been effective. I worry about Perkins...he's had a dead arm at the end of each of the past two seasons. Hopefully some of the fireballing relievers in the minors develop quickly...otherwise Terry is going to have to trade to improve the bullpen.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Twins have been linked to Madson and Soria this off-season. I expect to come away with one of those two, though both would be splendid.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Twins have been linked to Madson and Soria this off-season. I expect to come away with one of those two, though both would be splendid.

Good stuff, cam...hadn't heard that. Either or both would take care of our bullpen woes. Pohlads have shown they're not unwilling to spend and the Hunter retirement helps the payroll...the money they are spending on the Korean guy may make them less willing to spend though.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Speaking of relief pitching, the additions to the 40-man roster yesterday shows Ryan's emphasis on adding power arms to the bullpen. Chargois, Melotakis and Landa were all added yesterday, and all can reach 100MPH and are considered relievers...not likely ready to help this year though.

Josmil Pinto was left unprotected and we lost him to the Padres. I really felt he could have been something special at the plate, but lack of defense and injuries have hurt him. I'm not going to lose any sleep over this loss.

[Tactical unit]

I'm stationed in New Haven as an Operational Specialist 1st Class (Search and Rescue Operator).

As far as Gonsalves goes he's pitching low 90's right now but at 6'5" under 200 pounds you can expect him to fill out more and add some heat to the fastball as he fills out. His splitter won't push Tanaka's but it shows plenty of promise and not many would push Tanaka's nasty splitter. I haven't watched enough of him on MILB to know how good his other secondaries are or see the development of the changeup. He was close to a strikeout per inning in low and high A ball last year so hopefully he progresses and reaches his ceiling more than his floor.

I agree on the pen being an issue, I tend to like failed starters in that role. They often see an uptick in velocity and can focus on putting everything into one inning and not have to worry about providing a quality start every time out. Wonder if Risky Ricky Nolasco would fare well in that role?

[Monster]

Twins have been linked to Madson and Soria this off-season. I expect to come away with one of those two, though both would be splendid.

Good stuff, cam...hadn't heard that. Either or both would take care of our bullpen woes. Pohlads have shown they're not unwilling to spend and the Hunter retirement helps the payroll...the money they are spending on the Korean guy may make them less willing to spend though.

Um the Polads have dished out a ton of money the last few months maybe you missed it. Lol I'll say it again money really isn't an issue anymore. No we aren't gonna spend like the 200 million+ teams but this is a low budget operation anymore. The Teins were a legit team and free agents are going to look at them much differently than they did the past few years.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm stationed in New Haven as an Operational Specialist 1st Class (Search and Rescue Operator).

As far as Gonsalves goes he's pitching low 90's right now but at 6'5" under 200 pounds you can expect him to fill out more and add some heat to the fastball as he fills out. His splitter won't push Tanaka's but it shows plenty of promise and not many would push Tanaka's nasty splitter. I haven't watched enough of him on MILB to know how good his other secondaries are or see the development of the changeup. He was close to a strikeout per inning in low and high A ball last year so hopefully he progresses and reaches his ceiling more than his floor.

I agree on the pen being an issue, I tend to like failed starters in that role. They often see an uptick in velocity and can focus on putting everything into one inning and not have to worry about providing a quality start every time out. Wonder if Risky Ricky Nolasco would fare well in that role?

I don't know if you know the Gonsalves story, TU...I've told it on this board before. I was living in SoCal when he was dazzling all the scouts as a high school junior. I never got to see him, but I read about him a lot in the papers...lots of talk about him being the #1 pick in a couple years after graduation. But on his teams' first road trip during spring break his senior year, he got in trouble for not turning his roommate in for smoking pot...suspended for the season for violating the school's honor code. That must have scared a lot of teams off, because the Twins were able to get him in the 3rs round I think...what a steal! He's been pitching like a #1 pick ever since. He's going to be a good one.

Nolasco seems to have more starter stuff than reliever stuff. He's not overpowering, more of a multi-pitch nibbler. That and the big contract are why I think they're going to give him every opportunity to make the rotation if he's healthy. But I heard Terry Ryan say a couple weeks ago that the pen was a possibility for Ricky. The rotation is crowded and Ricky is kind of a hard guy to like, so I'm hoping he ends up in long relief...might be a good role for him if he's pitching ok.

I agree with you that the pen is a great place for failed starters...you only have to look at Wade Davis to prove that! He never figured out how to pace himself over several innings as a starter, but when they told him he could go all out for just an inning, he became lights out! I see May as kind of a poor man's Davis.