Sam Mitchell's plan and development (Warning- +/- stats involved)

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Sam Mitchell is almost universally panned in this forum, and being a long-time fan of his, I want to provide a little balance for discussion purposes. Some of this is stolen from one of Q's posts today, but this expands a little on his thoughts in a more pro-Sam manner.

Sometimes we tend to discuss the Wolves too granularly, looking at individual results rather than team results. But ultimately basketball is a team game, and the coach is obligated to put the players together on the court that best executes his vision, and I argue that Sam is doing this.

Plus/minus stats are not the cleanest stat, especially in the short term, because so many factors impact them. But you still win basketball games by outscoring your opponent, so ultimately I think +/- is the most important stat. Through a very small sample size of 4 games, here are the Wolves' +/- stats per 36 (I'm excluding Miller, Payne and Rudez because of minimal minutes):

Prince: 12.6
KG 12.6
Rubio 5.7
Wiggins -.9
KAT -1.6
Bjelica -1.7
Dieng -1.8
Shabazz -2.4
Martin -8.7
LaVine -9.7

There you have it... and that's why Sam continues to start KG and Prince, despite the objections of this board and every other one I follow. Some may try to argue that their +/- is inflated because they get to play exclusively with Rubio, and there is some substance to that. But offsetting that is the fact that almost all of their minutes have been against the other team's starters (since they get most of their minutes at the start of halves)...despite this, they are significantly outscoring their opponent. How does this tie into Sam's vision, what is working, and what is not?

1) Sam has said this season is all about development, and he is showing this by teaming his future stars (Wig, KAT and Rubio), with players they can effectively learn from. Sam has clearly told Wig and KAT that they need to be aggressive and score, and KG and Prince have been more than willing to be just facilitators on offense. Further, Sam knows that nothing can be better for defensive development of his Future Three than to be on the court with defensive experts like KG and Prince. Sam's plan is working to perfection with respect to the starting 5: Our future Big Three is getting the maximum opportunity to develop, and our starters are outscoring their starters.

2) What is not working? As we all know (and as made perfectly clear by the +/- numbers), Zach has not been the answer at PG....his +/- per 36 is the worst on the team. But while Zach is not the answer short-term at PG if we want to win now, I think continuing to play him there is consistent with Sam's vision. As Flip said many times, getting minutes at PG can only make Zach a better player at either SG or PG. Moving Miller into the backup PG role and moving Zach to the bench would probably be the best "win-now" lineup, but I think it would be inconsistent with Sam's development strategy.

The Wolves are now 2-2 after two disappointing home losses. Still, my preference is for the Wolves to stay the course. Changing the starting lineup in light of the +/- numbers they are putting up would be foolish, and since Bazz needs his minutes, that locks Wig into continuing to play SG. That leaves us with two options for Zach...continue to play backup PG and hope for development there, or move Miller or Jones to backup PG and let Zach and Martin compete for backup minutes at SG. I prefer the current path, but would not be opposed to option 2 if Sam became convinced that playing Zach at PG was hurting his development. But I think Martin's ability to score in bunches might push Zach out of the regular rotation, and I don't think that is the best development move for this team.

There has been a lot of requests for Bazz to move into the starting lineup. I love Bazz, but I think his best role is as a scorer off the bench. And I'm baffled why anyone would want to take Prince out of the starting lineup based on the early numbers. Sam needs to stay with this starting five, and tinker with the backup roles if he sees the need.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good analysis LST.

My issue with LaVine is that I don't believe him playing PG is helping him develop, nor any of the other guys on the floor with them. If anything, the strategy is backfiring and stunting the growth of the team. Has Sam learned nothing from last season? LaVine logged a ton of minutes at PG and there has been ZERO improvement in his ability to run an offense.

I get the concept in theory, but we've had over a year of data now. The null hypothesis has been rejected!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good analysis LST.

My issue with LaVine is that I don't believe him playing PG is helping him develop, nor any of the other guys on the floor with them. If anything, the strategy is backfiring and stunting the growth of the team. Has Sam learned nothing from last season? LaVine logged a ton of minutes at PG and there has been ZERO improvement in his ability to run an offense.

I get the concept in theory, but we've had over a year of data now. The null hypothesis has been rejected!

I have to admit I'm migrating toward your conclusion. I'm basically an optimist and a slow learner, and those personality traits may be clouding my judgement on this issue. What to do with Zach is the most compelling issue for this team right now. I tend to think Sam is going to stay the course, but that an injury or two might force him to move Zach to the 2...just guessing though.

[Leado01]

Although I agree with you LST, you also have to consider what kind of product you're putting on the court. We have suffered for a very long time as a franchise in development and although that's not Sam's fault, it is the hand that has been dealt.

I think in close/ winnable games we have to consider letting Miller play.

Half empty stadiums don't benefit anyone's development

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Although I agree with you LST, you also have to consider what kind of product you're putting on the court. We have suffered for a very long time as a franchise in development and although that's not Sam's fault, it is the hand that has been dealt.

I think in close/ winnable games we have to consider letting Miller play.

Half empty stadiums don't benefit anyone's development

You make a good point, leado...as a 15-game season ticket holder, I don't want to sit in a half empty TC. I think Sam needs to delicately balance development and entertainment, all the while trying to win enough games to keep the fan base interested. Despite his glossy +/- numbers, I don't see the fan base behind Prince because he has never been a showtime player...ultimately, fan demand may force Sam's hand with respect to Tay. And if the losses begin mounting up and Sam sees LaVine at PG as a major contributing factor, it may force him to play Miller.

I still like Sam's vision, but two home losses in winnable games has to have him reconsidering his rotations.

[mjs34]

Long, I look at this from different point of view, and I see the Zach at PG hurting his development. Both Wiggins and Lavine are supposed to be our go to scorers with the ability to take over a game. I haven't seen much of that in either of the two players. Zach is not a rocket scientist, and that isn't going to change. Playing PG is just asking too much out of him.

What bothers me more is that I don't see that scorer's mentality in either player. Ask yourself how many Alpha scorers in the league have to be forced into taking shots and trying to score. I can't think of one guy that fits into that category. I used to think Zach possessed that with his short memory until I realized that it is his low BB IQ that I was seeing. I was hoping that Wiggins was developing it (if that's possible) later in the season, but he seems like he regressed right back to the start of his rookie year. Neither guy seems to crave that position, while the guys that have succeeded in that role have to be reined in.

How many guys have to be asked to shoot the BB!

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Long, are we seriously arguing here that either KG or Prince are net positives in REAL games? I see the numbers, but what I see on TV certainly resembles nothing short of a couple hot turds. I can't explain the numbers, other than the fact that they play very sporadic minutes, and always with the best players on the team playing next to them. Based on the numbers, you would think these two guys are leading this team in productive minutes....and I LOUDLY disagree.

Are people seriously still OK with KG making $8.5MM this season and a guaranteed $8MM next? It is CRAZY!!!!! He is freakin' abysmal!!!! And I will state again that when the extended losing happens....and it will....the KG mentor thing will go out the door. He will obtain the same loser mentality of this team. Our only saving grace is that I have to believe that KG will retire after this season, thus foregoing his contract next year.

[bleedspeed]

I blame it all on Kevin Martin. He is a good player, but having him on the roster doesn't help us with developing Lavine at SG. He either needs to start and LaVine come in for him or we need to move him. I would like to see Miller playing 12-15 minutes at PG behind Rubio if he can handle it.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Long, are we seriously arguing here that either KG or Prince are net positives in REAL games? I see the numbers, but what I see on TV certainly resembles nothing short of a couple hot turds. I can't explain the numbers, other than the fact that they play very sporadic minutes, and always with the best players on the team playing next to them. Based on the numbers, you would think these two guys are leading this team in productive minutes....and I LOUDLY disagree.

Are people seriously still OK with KG making $8.5MM this season and a guaranteed $8MM next? It is CRAZY!!!!! He is freakin' abysmal!!!! And I will state again that when the extended losing happens....and it will....the KG mentor thing will go out the door. He will obtain the same loser mentality of this team. Our only saving grace is that I have to believe that KG will retire after this season, thus foregoing his contract next year.

I'm glad there's still sane beings on this board. Hicks is exactly right here. Isn't it ironic how the two highest +/- on the team come from the two guys that only play their minutes with the three best players on the team? It's the other three (Rubio, Towns, Wiggins ?) that have been doing the heavy lifting in those minutes, which make KG and Prince's +/- look better than it really is.

And yes, KG's contract is absurd. I've argued that plenty of times, but I either get told "we had no other way to spend the money" or "you're just not understanding everything KG brings to the table", both of which are laughable retorts.

[Coolbreeze44]

Long, are we seriously arguing here that either KG or Prince are net positives in REAL games? I see the numbers, but what I see on TV certainly resembles nothing short of a couple hot turds. I can't explain the numbers, other than the fact that they play very sporadic minutes, and always with the best players on the team playing next to them. Based on the numbers, you would think these two guys are leading this team in productive minutes....and I LOUDLY disagree.

Are people seriously still OK with KG making $8.5MM this season and a guaranteed $8MM next? It is CRAZY!!!!! He is freakin' abysmal!!!! And I will state again that when the extended losing happens....and it will....the KG mentor thing will go out the door. He will obtain the same loser mentality of this team. Our only saving grace is that I have to believe that KG will retire after this season, thus foregoing his contract next year.

I'm glad there's still sane beings on this board. Hicks is exactly right here. Isn't it ironic how the two highest +/- on the team come from the two guys that only play their minutes with the three best players on the team? It's the other three (Rubio, Towns, Wiggins ?) that have been doing the heavy lifting in those minutes, which make KG and Prince's +/- look better than it really is.

And yes, KG's contract is absurd. I've argued that plenty of times, but I either get told "we had no other way to spend the money" or "you're just not understanding everything KG brings to the table", both of which are laughable retorts.

I tend to agree with these posters on this. Both of these guys will wear out their welcome before too long. KG can only be in a 20 year olds ear for so long before the message has less impact. And on the court I see nothing to justify the minutes they are getting, especially Prince.