About to turn the corner

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

As ugly as this season has been, especially since 8-8, for the first time I believe the team is moving in the right direction. And as clueless as Mitchell has been, I think even he is finally realizing there is a simple way to improve the team drastically:

Play Lavine as a 2-guard, and use a real point guard to back up Ricky.

There it is, plain and simple. I honestly believe we would be 5 to 10 games better right now if we had used Lavine as a 2-guard from the start and had Miller backing up Ricky.

When Lavine is allowed to play off the ball he goes into predator mode, playing freely and running the court. As the point guard he is tentative and often ends up chucking up ill-advised long jumpers. This has killed our second unit (Lavine is the worst +/- on the team) and especially one player in particular: Bjelica.

Belly is a guy who started the season off great, looking like a strong role player if not a starter by the end of the season. But instead of using him more as a floor spacer with the starters, he was relegated to playing with two or three of these players in the 2nd unit: Zach, K-Mart, and Bazz. That's a recipe for disaster. All of those guys are looking for their own shot, and none of them are good passers. I really think Bjelica and Zach are the two players that have suffered the most because of Sam's ignorance on how to use smart player combinations.

But I digress. I'm starting to like what I'm seeing now finally. Lavine is playing the 2, the Wolves are playing more up tempo, and I really like seeing Miller playing point for the 2nd unit. Against the Clippers the Wolves led by 1 (I think) going to the 4th. Miller anchored the 4th quarter unit and actually pushed the lead to 7 with some cagey plays. Of course Mitchell left the bench players out there too long as he always does and we gave those points back, but I thought the fact that we stayed even for those first 5 minutes of the 4th won us the game.

Some here are ready to cut bait with Rubio. I for one am not. But regardless, next year's team MUST have an adequate 2nd point guard on it. It can't be Rubio and (a not ready or just not good enough) Jones. It probably can't be Rubio and a (finally) too old Miller. And it sure as hell can't be Rubio and Lavine! Especially when Lavine's talents are used so much better as a scorer.

So I see three huge priorities for next season:

1) New coach. This is a no-brainer.
2) A new point guard. Unless they really believe in Tyus. Even then though he can be the 3rd stringer.
3) 3-point shooting. They need this is the worst way. The one guy who maybe could have helped them the most, Belly, has been misused. Same with Lavine. And Rudez has ridden the pine.

Take care of those 3 things, along with continued natural growth from the youngsters (and Rubio shooting a career high 40.1% next season--it can still happen, I won't stop believing!), then I think they can make a huge leap into the playoffs.

But for now, lets keep seeing more of what has happened lately with Lavine at the 2 and playing up tempo, and beat the battered Bulls tomorrow night for (gasp) two wins in a row.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nice write-up Mstermisty. A few areas of agreement and a few areas of rebuttal:

On Zach at SG - Totally agree and the numbers back it up. If you look at Zach's +/- per 100 possessions in 2-man lineups, his top two are Zach/Ricky and Zach/Andre. Unfortunately, they are still in the negative, but they are the least negative combos for Zach.

On upgrading backup PG - Yeah, this has been an issue for years now. This team falls apart when Rubio is on the bench. That fact hasn't changed for 5 seasons now. Even for those clamoring to trade Rubio for a new starting PG - even if that starting PG is just as good or better than Rubio - we still have the same problem. The fact we have to rely on a 40-year old Andre Miller to stabilize our 2nd unit tells us all we need to know. This needs to get addressed.

On turning a corner - I will agree that our offense has turned a corner lately. The defense....not so much. We are still an awful defensive team, especially without KG in the mix. Are we better than last year? Absolutely, but last year's defense was one of the worst in NBA history. Incremental improvement over last year isn't good enough.

On a new coach - I think Mitchell probably gets more blame than he deserves for this team's ills, but at the end of the day he still needs to be accountable. Unfortunately, all indications are he never holds himself accountable - it's always the players' fault when things go wrong. That's unacceptable. On the other hand, he may be instilling things now that don't really pay off until future years. We know that he took a back-to-basics approach to training camp and generously mixes in the older vets (aka mentors) with the youth. The fruit of such investments typically don't bear overnight. If these young guys continue to improve over the next couple of years, Mitchell deserves some credit for it.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

I like the optimism here. I'm not sure if this organization knows how to build a contender as we've only had 1 enjoyable season in 25 years, but I like KAT a lot and if Wiggy can knock down the 3, he'll be dangerous too.

Also, quick AB update for Cam: 8 total minutes and one bucket the last 5 games. Good God, what a bust and to think I was a fan of his.

[TAFKASP]

Set'em up, knock'em down. Or, translated into Wolves speak, give them hope, take their legs out from under them.

I guess my only problem with your post Misty, is that if all goes according to your thoughts then a new coach being a no brainer becomes a bit sketchy. If the Wolves finish strong I can see Glenn believing Sam has earned the opportunity to lead them for at least another year.

I know I've been a bit of a smart ass talking about ping pong balls and player development/experience over wins of late, but in my mind more minutes for bench players equals both more experience and more losses, which also equals more ping pong balls, which maybe most importantly equals another top 5 talent and new head coach. I can't help but think back to the early Wolves teams who needed top young talent more than they needed wins, and yet Musselman always managed to win enough games to guarantee they would never get those team altering picks.

It's been eleven years of rebuilding, it'll have been twelve when this season ends. Half way through the Wolves have already pissed away the potential this season presented. Looking to the next half decade I believe the Wolves will be better off with the addition of a quality PBO, new head coach, and one final top five pick than they will by a few extra wins. I'm not saying the addition of a top 5 pick is required, but they're so close in an already wasted season it would be foolish to ignore the possibilities, even if the pick were just used for trading for a top young veteran.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm fully on board with the soft tank. Lock up that top-five pick, whether it's to draft a game-changing player like Ingram or Simmons, or to trade for a young, producing player like Noel. And on top of that, Mitchell has to go and more losses need to be accrued for that to happen.

PS: Imagine Thibs with a Rubio-Wiggins-Noel-Towns core. Oh ma gawd.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I can't stand tanking. I hate being uncompetitive and crappy, fizzling out every season - I'm convinced that strategy has helped lead to the loser mentality of this franchise. I would much rather see us surge to the finish line and then just hope for the best from a lottery and coaching perspective. These kids need to learn how to win.

Every year it seems to be, "All we need is one more lottery pick and a new coach!". 10 lotteries and 5 coaches later, we still suck.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

I can't stand tanking. I hate being uncompetitive and crappy, fizzling out every season - I'm convinced that strategy has helped lead to the loser mentality of this franchise. I would much rather see us surge to the finish line and then just hope for the best from a lottery and coaching perspective. These kids need to learn how to win.

Every year it seems to be, "All we need is one more lottery pick and a new coach!". 10 lotteries and 5 coaches later, we still suck.

:thumb:

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I can't stand tanking. I hate being uncompetitive and crappy, fizzling out every season - I'm convinced that strategy has helped lead to the loser mentality of this franchise. I would much rather see us surge to the finish line and then just hope for the best from a lottery and coaching perspective. These kids need to learn how to win.

Every year it seems to be, "All we need is one more lottery pick and a new coach!". 10 lotteries and 5 coaches later, we still suck.

The choices made on those picks and coaches have been insanely bad. THAT has led to a loser mentality.

[Coolbreeze44]

I can't stand tanking. I hate being uncompetitive and crappy, fizzling out every season - I'm convinced that strategy has helped lead to the loser mentality of this franchise. I would much rather see us surge to the finish line and then just hope for the best from a lottery and coaching perspective. These kids need to learn how to win.

Every year it seems to be, "All we need is one more lottery pick and a new coach!". 10 lotteries and 5 coaches later, we still suck.

Absolutely!! Win games and let the rest take care of itself.

[Coolbreeze44]

I'm fully on board with the soft tank. Lock up that top-five pick, whether it's to draft a game-changing player like Ingram or Simmons, or to trade for a young, producing player like Noel. And on top of that, Mitchell has to go and more losses need to be accrued for that to happen.

PS: Imagine Thibs with a Rubio-Wiggins-Noel-Towns core. Oh ma gawd.

Bring Thibodeau in here and you have what the Wild is going through right now. You would have a coach not knowing what to do with a bunch of thoroughbreds. The horses need to be let out of the barn, not shackled to a post.