Best Player in the Draft

[Carlos Danger]

According to these guys: http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/12/scout-calls-kristaps-porzingis-best-player-in-the-draft-hes-better-than-karl-towns/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Most of you have convinced me that Towns should be our guy. But part of me still thinks if the right deal comes our way, trading down could be a great move too. Seems like a bunch of good players in this draft without anyone really separating themselves as "the uncontested best player".

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm right there with you, Anthony. This draft is very different than last year, where there were clearly two players at the top and then a drop off (I'm dropping Embiid because we still don't know what he is). Some try to label this year as a 2-man draft also, but I think there are five players who easily could turn out to be the best player in this draft. I think what complicates this year's draft is that 2 of the top 5 played in foreign leagues last year, making it more difficult to compare them to Towns, Okafor and Russell. At various times any one of the top five has been called the best player in the draft...that's quite unusual.

In a situation with such uncertainty at the top, positional drafting for need rather than choosing BPA becomes a better strategy, and that still leads me to Towns. And even if Porzingis or Mudiay end up being the best player in the draft, I think Flip will have made a good choice by selecting a guy that he knows he can plug in to either big man position...depending on where the biggest need is.

But as you suggest, the parity at the top of this draft makes it incumbent upon Flip to listen to any offers to trade down. While I still want Towns, if one of the four teams directly below us were to offer Flip something valuable that filled a team need in order to move up, there's no question that Flip needs to consider that. Having said that, I'm not seeing a viable offer that would be acceptable to both parties. That's why I still think it's going to be Towns.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm always suspicious when these types of declarations are made based on bringing a guy over for a workout, where they are faux-defended and take endless uncontested shots. Color me unimpressed.

He has a solid body of work from playing in the second best league in the world for the past couple of years and that is how his potential should be judged. From what we can tell, he has a nice shooting touch and extraordinary length that will allow him to get his shot off on anyone, and that's a pretty huge asset (Dirk, Aldridge, and Durant all have a similar advantage at their positions). He also gets plenty of blocks and steals. On the other hand, he is an anemic rebounder (for a 4 or 5) and not much of a passer.

I think the key factor with him is how much more weight can his frame put on? Perhaps his ceiling is in the Dirk/Aldridge range if he can add some more bulk and become an average rebounder and hold his own in the paint.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The thing that stands out about Towns is what is his weakness? In terms of his production at Kentucky, I can't really think of anything that stands out as problematic. Defense, rebounding, offensive efficiency, free throw shooting, passing......All strong or solid.

The one physical thing that worries me about Towns is his skinny legs. That really concerns me in terms of his ability to hold defensive positioning in the paint against NBA 5s. But we really don't know how that will evolve and manifest itself over the next few years, but that's the one thing that worries me about him.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm always suspicious when these types of declarations are made based on bringing a guy over for a workout, where they are faux-defended and take endless uncontested shots. Color me unimpressed.

He has a solid body of work from playing in the second best league in the world for the past couple of years and that is how his potential should be judged. From what we can tell, he has a nice shooting touch and extraordinary length that will allow him to get his shot off on anyone, and that's a pretty huge asset (Dirk, Aldridge, and Durant all have a similar advantage at their positions). He also gets plenty of blocks and steals. On the other hand, he is an anemic rebounder (for a 4 or 5) and not much of a passer.

I think the key factor with him is how much more weight can his frame put on? Perhaps his ceiling is in the Dirk/Aldridge range if he can add some more bulk and become an average rebounder and hold his own in the paint.

Yes, I get the point about putting too much stock in workouts, q, but there's another factor in play here...the Dirk/Darko conundrum. As far as I know, Darko is the only European player to ever be chosen in the top 2 picks, although some have demonstrated that they should have been. And the Darko Disaster scares a lot of GMs from selecting a European player... for that reason, I would argue that every one of the top 10 European players playing today was drafted far below where he should have. Gasol, Gasol, Vukevic, Nowitski, Parker, Gobert, Antetokounmpo, Mirotic, Dragic and Gortat were picked 48, 3, 16, 9, 28, 27, 15, 23, 45 and 57. All have been terrific NBA players (well, maybe not the Freak yet), and only Pau Gasol was selected anywhere near his value...but with hindsight, he should have been taken before Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Since scouts couldn't spend much time watching these guys in person or talking to college coaches they trusted, they basically had to rely on video and workouts...and both must have been significantly discounted. So when a scout says Porzingis is the best player in the draft, I listen.

Will Porzingis and Mudiay be the next two foreign stars to be overlooked?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

LST, all those success stories are great... when you leave out how many highly-touted Euro failures there have been. That list is just as long, if not marginally longer.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

LST, I'm not necessarily arguing that he shouldn't be picked as high as #3. I'm not sure I would do it, but I can certainly see why someone would. What I don't buy is that a workout should change anyone's view of him based on the fact he has an already well established body of work playing professionally, all of which was captured on video and can be broken down ad nauseum with the technology available today. The guy quoted in the article above was reacting to the workout he just saw and said that he's better than Towns. Really!?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST, all those success stories are great... when you leave out how many highly-touted Euro failures there have been. That list is just as long, if not marginally longer.

That's a fair point, cam, but only if you loosely define "highly-touted". There have been many Euros drafted later than the first ten picks who never panned out. But other than Darko and Nikoloz Tskitishvili (drafted 5th in 2002), I can't think of another Euro who was picked top ten and flopped. Maybe you cold say Luc Longley was a flop as a 7th pick in 1991, but he also has a couple rings, and only one guy picked after him (Terrell Brandon) was ever a 2-time all star. So, I still have to conclude that generally Euros are undervalued in the draft. And Porzingis is a great candidate to be the next undervalued Euro.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST, I'm not necessarily arguing that he shouldn't be picked as high as #3. I'm not sure I would do it, but I can certainly see why someone would. What I don't buy is that a workout should change anyone's view of him based on the fact he has an already well established body of work playing professionally, all of which was captured on video and can be broken down ad nauseum with the technology available today. The guy quoted in the article above was reacting to the workout he just saw and said that he's better than Towns. Really!?

Q, based on the ten Euros I listed, would you agree that they are generally undervalued in the draft, and if so, to what do you attribute that? I would attribute it to the odd way Euros keep track of stats (they always seem to understate assists and rebounds), not trusting Euro video and discounting what they see live because it is "only a workout". Don't get me wrong...I'm not advocating for moving Porzingis up either. I'm merely pointing out a trend that seems to show Euros are overlooked. That's why I would be excited if Philly offered us one of their bigs (Noel or Embiid) and #3 for #1 and players (Bud, even Bennett). Granted, that's not likely to happen, and I still would probably put Russell ahead of Porzingis at 3. But I admit that I may be undervaluing Porzingis.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I know Yi Jianlian isn't a Euro, and the league he played in was weaker, but this guy too garnered the Dirk/Pau comparisons from scouts that are so easily being placed on Zingis. I said to slow down on that back then and I'm saying it now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WivFuMlXCxA

Weak physically AND a tendency to avoid contact isn't a recipe for success, in my opinion, and those are my biggest issues with Zingis. I wouldn't pick him high; no way.