The Case for Okafor

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Let me start by saying I personally think Towns is the better prospect. I wasn't convinced at the beginning of the college season, but as he got better and better, he eventually overtook Okafor in my mind (along with a lot of other people's minds too. And yes Cam, I know you were on the KAT Train early and often. Congrats).

In debate club, one often has to play both sides of an argument. Here I shall lay out the case for Jahil Okafor (otherwise known as "Flip's Talking Points for Rationalizing his Pick with the High-Minded Super Fans from Various and Sundry Wolves Boards and Blogs Who Will Violently Disagree with Him"):


1. He is a world class talent in one thing: Low post scoring. He shot 66.4% from the field on a high volume of shots (that's key). That. Is. Ridiculous. Even for college big men. Almost unheard of in the past 25 years.

2. He will be an 18 & 8 guy Day 1 if you play him around 30 MPG. As his fitness level increases over time, he will likely eventually be a 22 & 10 guy by his second or third year, with a TS% in the 56 - 60% range. That's basically all-star production, year in and year out.

3. He's strong as an ox. Think about how our guys last year got pushed around like a bunch of pansies in a flower box. Dieng, Payne, Hamilton, Young. We were bullied and taken advantage of all year in the paint. Okafor is 270 lbs. with a ridiculously strong base. He's the opposite of Dieng, who is top heavy and topples over like a drunken giraffe on ice skates (or am I thinking of Payne? Can't remember....). While he may not be the most natural rebounder or defender, the fact is he's big. He's strong. And he's going to occupy some bodies down there, thereby enabling his team mates to corral rebounds.

4. He's long. Believe it or not, Okafor has a longer wingspan than Towns. I actually think Okafor would have been a very good defender by now if he wasn't such a dominant offensive force. But I'm fairly convinced that his strategy (which was probably encouraged from his coaches) was to basically stay out of foul trouble. That leads to fairly passive behavior on defense. But when you combine his length and strength, he doesn't have to be an elite shotblocker. He can stay on the ground, wall up, and simply make it difficult for guys in and around the basket. Pekovic actually does a pretty good job of this, but imagine Pek + another 4 or 5 inches of wingspan. That's Okafor.

5. The "Modern NBA Center" actually features traditional big men in the sense that they have Center size and strength, but not much of an offensive game. As a result, when these guys play each other, they can park their ass in and around the paint and not worry much about their matchup. DeAndre Jordan is not going to post anyone up. Neither is Bogut (except on rare occasions). Or Drummond. Even Gasol doesn't spend much time in the low post. These guys practically play a zone defense and excel at protecting the paint from practically everyone else on the court. Well, with Okafor, no more of that zone B.S. You're actually have to man-up and guard someone all freakin' night in the post. Imagine a guy with Pek's strength and Hakeem's footwork coming at you. Scared now, aren't you?

(by the way, I made a different argument on this front for Towns in another post, but we're not here to talk about that wimp right now).

6. Defense can be taught. Okafor's low-post game can't. Okafor has the strength and length to be a tough paint defender. He just needs to learn the technique and mentality. Have no fear - KG's Magic Mentoring Potion© is here! It cures all defensive ills from anyone that comes in contact with it!*

7. Pick and Roll game - While Duke didn't run much pick and roll action with Okafor in college, you damn well better believe that he has the potential to be a PnR monster. His size and girth gives him the ability to set good picks. And his incredible hands and feathery touch on the interior gives him the ability to be a great target as the roll man. It may take a year or two, but Rubio is going to looooove playing PnR with JO.

And there you have it folks! Now you don't have to feel so bad when Flip makes the wrong pick!


* Potential side effects include mild heartburn, gas, profane outbursts in games, punching of team mates, and picking fights with players half your size.

[Porckchop]

I agree with everything uve mentioned. If u have a player that's gonna bring u scoring and rebounding from day one I think that trumps potential. Potential gets gms and coaches fired more often than not. Towns hasn't shown that sure fire ability that Davis has. Whereas Okafor has shown the type of skill set that guys like Randolph and other skilled big man have .

[Coolbreeze44]

Excellent stuff Q. Jeez, you kind of make me want Jahlil now. Ha ha ha ha.

[worldK]

Good write up q!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree with everything uve mentioned. If u have a player that's gonna bring u scoring and rebounding from day one I think that trumps potential. Potential gets gms and coaches fired more often than not. Towns hasn't shown that sure fire ability that Davis has. Whereas Okafor has shown the type of skill set that guys like Randolph and other skilled big man have .

Glad you agree with me, even if I don't. ;)

[60WinTim]

Terrific writeup, Q. Like you, I still prefer the skills Towns brings to the table. But I can still be excited about Okafor if that is who Flip chooses. In Flip we trust!

[mrhockey89]

Good post Q, and I think you could add that Jahlil is likely to add a mid-range game in the next 2-3 seasons as well which should make his game even more reminiscent of Duncan's offensively, which would also potentially make him a very good pick-n-pop player in time.

The real question with him is WILL HE ever develop a defensive game, or will he be a more fundamentally sound, less athletic version of Amare (with more strength of course)?

[Porckchop]

Good post Q, and I think you could add that Jahlil is likely to add a mid-range game in the next 2-3 seasons as well which should make his game even more reminiscent of Duncan's offensively, which would also potentially make him a very good pick-n-pop player in time.

The real question with him is WILL HE ever develop a defensive game, or will he be a more fundamentally sound, less athletic version of Amare (with more strength of course)?

My thing is we wonder if he'll develop the the things u mention but we already know he can score and rebound.. We see the potential Towns has but we're not sure he has a completely developed skill at anything yet.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I didn't see any ground rules in this thread prohibiting rebuttals, so let me offer up my concerns.

I actually am not as concerned about Okafor's defense as others. He's big, strong and long, and has the potential to be a longer version of Pek. Not a rim protector, but at least adequate on defense.

I'm more concerned about his free throws and performance in big games. Most of us here are not fans of the Hack-a-Whomever strategy, and I think we will grow to detest it more when it becomes a strategy to be used against us. 51% for the year, and no better than that in the tournament. I'm already dreading seeing Jahlil at the line in the 4th quarter of close games.

While I loved Jahlil's ability to score so efficiently early in the season against teams like Furman, Fairfield and Elan, I thought he was only ordinary against the higher seeds in the NCAA tournament. In the last four games of the tournament, playing against defenses that more resemble what he will see next year, he only averaged 11 and 6 in over 28 minutes a game...not good enough for a guy who is about to be picked first.

I'll likely jump on the bandwagon when Flip picks Okafor, but right now I have him third on my board.

[mrhockey89]

Good post Q, and I think you could add that Jahlil is likely to add a mid-range game in the next 2-3 seasons as well which should make his game even more reminiscent of Duncan's offensively, which would also potentially make him a very good pick-n-pop player in time.

The real question with him is WILL HE ever develop a defensive game, or will he be a more fundamentally sound, less athletic version of Amare (with more strength of course)?

My thing is we wonder if he'll develop the the things u mention but we already know he can score and rebound.. We see the potential Towns has but we're not sure he has a completely developed skill at anything yet.

I'd argue that Towns has several developed skills, such as pick n roll defense and his shooting ability.

But Okafor's efficiency is really good on the low post, so you definitely could do worse.

This is why I think it's a win-win-win draft with the #1 pick. I agree that Towns is a bigger gamble than Okafor, but also carries a bigger overall upside projection.