Shooting

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

It's a question I've asked often of late: Why can't the Minnesota Timberwolves develop shooters?

This issue is in the forefront again this season as we watch Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, and Shabazz Muhammed - three of our more promising youngsters - collectively take a step backwards in 3-point shooting efficiency. I mean, really? All three young players that previously showed varying degrees of promise with that shot all get worse from the year prior? How does that happen?

But this is nothing new. Besides Kevin Love, what player have the Timberwolves drafted in the last decade that we developed into a better shooter than he was in college? Corey Brewer? Nope. Derrick Williams? Nope. Wesley Johnson? Nope. The same goes for Shabazz, Zach, and Wig. All three had better % from beyond the arc in college than in the NBA.

There are countless examples on other teams where individuals improved upon their college numbers. Many in fact were quite poor shooters in college, yet have become very dangerous now. Khris Middleton, DeMarre Carroll, and Kawhi Leonard were all very mediocre college shooters that are now very good from beyond the arc.

I don't expect us to turn every college prospect we draft into a legit 3-point threat, but it's amazing to me how poorly we've fared as an organization in developing this skill. It's clearly something that can be done.

Is this just bad luck or is there something more systemic at play?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

There appear to be two constants in this eqaution, q...our point guard, and our drafting strategy. I'm a big RR fan, but he doesn't seem as comfortable as other successful PG's with penetrating and then finding the open man beyond the arc. Tyus is already better at it than Ricky and seems to be developing some chemistry with Shabazz on this play. Ricky is superior to almost every other PG in the league in making the correct entry pass leading to an easy basket or finding the shooter for a 2 on a pick and pop, but he hasn't mastered the penetration and kick for a three yet. On the positive side, I think I am seeing some improvement in this area in recent games.

The other constant has been Flip's drafting strategy. I mentioned in another thread that Flip has bypassed players who featured the 3-point shot in college in favor of players who were more successful slashing to the basket and scoring near the hoop and on FTs. None of Zach, Wig, KAT, G and Bazz were considered serious 3-point threats in college, and the 3-point line is further out in the pros. I preferred these picks to 3-point shooters who were available (McCollum, Burke, KCP, Stauskas, Russell, Porzingis), but had we drafted some of those guys rather than the guys we drafted, I suspect the 3-point shot would have been a more significant part of our offense.

Q, you also ask why the 3-point percentages of Wig, Zach and Bazz have all decreased this year. No clue. I do note that each of the three are taking substantially more threes this year than last year, but I don't know if that is a factor in their decreased success.

[Monster]

LST I disagree with your idea that Flip hasn't brought In 3 point shooting. Dieng is about the only young player he has brought in that doesn't shoot the 3. Hamilton Payne plus all the wing players he brought in in the draft had plenty of promise in that area. Plus vets like Martin And even Brewer are/were 3 point shooters.

Your theory about Rubio not finding 3 point shooters is interesting. I'm not sure I buy hthat either but I'll watch that more.

Like Q said there seems to be something weird why we can't get guys to hit 3 pointers. It's been a problem for quite a while it's not just one or two coaches or GMs PTA more than that. Flip did bring in Penberthy as a shooting coach but we haven't seen fruits of that labor. The ironic thing is the guy NOBODY thought would be a 3 point threat at any point in his career looks like he may actually have that and his name is Dieng. How did that happen and other guys seem to brick those shots and regressing? Zach is going through a slump he will likely recover but man 3 point shooting is a problem. Let's hope Bazz keeps hitting from out there like he has lately.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree with you Monster. While Flip didn't draft any high-volume dead eye shooters out of college, he certainly brought in a lot of guys with decent potential as shooters: Payne, Bennett, Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz, Bjelica, and Towns.

The fact all of these guys have either regressed or haven't had much of an opportunity to shoot the 3 (e.g. Payne and Towns), is pretty stunning to me and can be blamed as much on the organization as on the players themselves.

As for Ricky, I find the argument that you and Mgor make about him not being able to find shooters odd. He constantly finds KAT open for 20-footers. He found Love and Martin open for tons of 3's a couple years ago.

Whoever the Wolves hire as POBO, needs to crack the code on this issue and ensure that developing players into better outside shooters is a key focus for this franchise. Some will be a lost cause (Ricky for example), but surely, guys like LaVine and Wiggins should not be going backwards.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Monster, my point was not that Flip hasn't brought in any 3-point shooters, but rather that his drafting strategy has always favored athletes over shooters. Kevin Martin is a great example that this franchise does encourage talented 3-point shooters to take 3's. Flip brought in KMart because he was a great 3-point shooter, and in his first two full years here he shot more threes per game and at a better percentage than his career averages. For some reason this year Kevin has decided to focus on driving and drawing fouls more than 3-pointers, but since Sam keeps saying publicly that he wanted KMart to take more three-pointers, it seems that it was Kevin's decision, not Sam's, to move away from them. KMart increasing his rate of threes in his first two years here tells me that our 3-point issues are more a question of personnel, not philosophy.

I don't think you can argue that Flip hasn't emphasized athletes over shooters in his drafting. Three years ago he passed on Stauskas (5.8 attempts per game), Burke (5.1) and McCollum (5.3)...good shooters all, but not particularly athletic...and instead drafted Shabazz (3.3) and Gorgui (not a three point shooter). This year the obvious choice was KAT even though he took almost no threes in college, but Russell (6.8) and Porzingis (proven 3-point shooter in Europe) could have been considered...I'm happy they weren't. In 2014 Flip ended up with two terrific athletes (although Wig was obtained by trade rather than draft), but neither one were prolific 3-point shooters in college...Wig (3.6) and Zach (3.5). The guys that Flip has drafted relied mostly on 2-point shooting and free throws in college, and neither Rick, Flip or Sam have tried to change their games. You can argue that maybe they should try harder to make these guys become 3-point shooters, but their results haven't been very good when they shoot threes. I think Sam would be subject to criticism if he forced these guys out of their comfort zone into an area they haven't demonstrated they can master.

Actually with Bazz, I think Sam is encouraging the 3-pointer more than Rick and Flip did...his 3-point attempts per 36 minutes are up substantially this year over his first two years. I think that's a positive development, although it has had a negative impact on his offensive rebounding.

Sam has coached the team to the 9th best points per shot in the league by emphasizing his players' strengths...I don't think that efficiency would be improved and the Wolves would move ahead of Spurs, Warriors et al if he encouraged his athletes to take more three-pointers. If Belly can somehow regain the accuracy and confidence he had before his injury, that would give us one more shooter to rely on. Absent that, I think the solution is for Milt to use his cap space this off-season to find free agents who can shoot the three (and not hurt us in other areas like rebounding and defense like Rudez does). Adding some three-point shooting will help unclog the middle, and allow or terrific athletes like Wig, Bazz and Zach to be even more effective close to the basket.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree with you Monster. While Flip didn't draft any high-volume dead eye shooters out of college, he certainly brought in a lot of guys with decent potential as shooters: Payne, Bennett, Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz, Bjelica, and Towns.

The fact all of these guys have either regressed or haven't had much of an opportunity to shoot the 3 (e.g. Payne and Towns), is pretty stunning to me and can be blamed as much on the organization as on the players themselves.

As for Ricky, I find the argument that you and Mgor make about him not being able to find shooters odd. He constantly finds KAT open for 20-footers. He found Love and Martin open for tons of 3's a couple years ago.

Whoever the Wolves hire as POBO, needs to crack the code on this issue and ensure that developing players into better outside shooters is a key focus for this franchise. Some will be a lost cause (Ricky for example), but surely, guys like LaVine and Wiggins should not be going backwards.

Q, I agree that Ricky is terrific in the pick and pop game in finding the open guy behind him, and especially with 2-point shots. He used to do it with Dante, and now he is very effective in doing it with our centers...it's one of the main reasons he is among the league leaders in assists. I don't see him doing what a lot of great PGs do though (and even Tyus Jones has shown in his brief moments), which is a penetration to the basket and the long pass to a wide-open shooter beyond the arc. Ricky's comfort level with setting up threes seems to be more what he used to do with Kevin Love (and with Belly before he forgot how to shoot)...move around a screen and drop the ball back to the shooter beyond the line. Maybe KAT can do what Love and Belly used to do and position himself beyond the line rather than 16 feet out. What we don't know is whether KAT positions himself there because he is more comfortable there (as I said earlier, he seems to hit about 70 % of those mid-rangers) or whether Sam is directing him to set up there. I tend to think it is the former while the Sam detractors think it's the latter, but the fact is we just don't know. I'd like to see KAT stretch out his game a little more to see what happens...I think he would get a lot of open looks and maybe hit a decent percentage.

AP has had good success with the three-point shot and I see no evidence of Sam discouraging it, but I'm frankly not an advocate of designing plays to set up AP threes. His three-point success reminds me a lot of Thad Young...neither looked like they could be consistent three-point shooters to me as their form was awkward and successful shots often rattled in. I find it interesting that Thad has abandoned the 3-point shot this year, and he is having the most efficient scoring season of his career.

As for KAT, I'm also in favor of more 3-point shots for him. But I don't find it stunning that he hasn't taken more so far. His last coach clearly discouraged him from taking 3-pointers, instead encouraging him to focus more on scoring closer to the basket. And nobody describes Calipari as a moron as a coach.

[60WinTim]

Welp, I an confident is goes back to coaching. And I am not talking about teaching technique!

It is extremely difficult for a team to be great at everything. A coach needs to pick the areas where he wants his team to excel. And we have not had a head coach that has placed 3-point shooting into one of his "areas of excellence". That's not to say Sam does not want his team to take 3-point shots. But his offensive philosophy is geared more to an open shot from anywhere on the court versus placing an emphasis on generating 3-point shots. This is clearly demonstrated with the Wolves being last in the league in 3-point attempts, by a pretty wide margin.

And taking it a step further, players tend to get better at skills that they routinely work on in practice and apply in games. Since we have never made 3-point shooting an emphasis in games, is it any wonder our players show little improvement in their shooting percentage from deep?

Was it Mike Miller who chose to not shoot open 3-point shots? I doubt it. It is far more likely he was playing within an offensive scheme that did not include the instruction "if you have an open 3-point shot, take it".

Sam is not a terrible coach, even if we disagree with some of his philosophies. Someone has to hold the reigns while our youngsters grow up. Sam has it this year. And while he is not terrible, I am not sure I would even call him mediocre. I very much doubt he will be holding the reigns next year.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Yeah, the Mike Miller saga will always be a mystery to me too, Tim. But the fact that Kevin Martin took more shots when he joined the Wolves leads me to believe the Miller situation is more about him than our system.

I know I'm in the minority here in wanting Sam to stay on as coach, perhaps the only one here...it's too difficult to think of breaking in a new coach for the 4th time in 4 years. I just don't think that amount of change is good for a young team like ours. Plus it seems to me that Sam clearly has the attention and respect of his team (unlike what we're seeing in Phoenix, Chicago and Memphis), and seems to have a terrific relationship with KAT who is going to be the cornerstone of this franchise. And I love his emphasis on defense after having had offensive minded coaches preceding him. Let's not stunt the growth of this talented group of kids by giving them a new coach every year.

I see one of the Wolves' owners once a week, and I honestly don't know what ownership is thinking...couldn't talk about it here even if I did hear something. I do offer my opinion though that this franchise needs stability at the top, not more change.

[Coolbreeze44]

Yeah, the Mike Miller saga will always be a mystery to me too, Tim. But the fact that Kevin Martin took more shots when he joined the Wolves leads me to believe the Miller situation is more about him than our system.

I know I'm in the minority here in wanting Sam to stay on as coach, perhaps the only one here...it's too difficult to think of breaking in a new coach for the 4th time in 4 years. I just don't think that amount of change is good for a young team like ours. Plus it seems to me that Sam clearly has the attention and respect of his team (unlike what we're seeing in Phoenix, Chicago and Memphis), and seems to have a terrific relationship with KAT who is going to be the cornerstone of this franchise. And I love his emphasis on defense after having had offensive minded coaches preceding him. Let's not stunt the growth of this talented group of kids by giving them a new coach every year.

I see one of the Wolves' owners once a week, and I honestly don't know what ownership is thinking...couldn't talk about it here even if I did hear something. I do offer my opinion though that this franchise needs stability at the top, not more change.

LST, the bold is precisely what I'm fretting about. I don't see the desired development THIS year. Sam is a veteran of NBA benches, and I suppose he could be useful under the right HC. But as a staff we are woefully inadequate and i'm genuinely concerned about the long term damage being done this year.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Cool, you and I will have to disagree on whether our young talent is developing and progressing or not under Sam's tutelage...I think they are progressing quite well. I'm a great admirer of Jim Peterson as a basketball analyst, and I recommend listening to the following podcast with Nate Duncan. It's all very interesting stuff, and while very positive about the Wolves in some instances, also quite critical at times. But on the topic of Sam as a teacher, listen to what Jim has to say. He says he is there at practice often, and he sees Sam working on the most minute details in order to improve his young studs' playing level.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/duncdon/2015/12/31/jim-petersen

And I think you see it in the results of our three most key players going forward: KAT, Zach and Wiggins.

Almost all of us thought KAT was the right choice at #1, but I don't think anyone thought he would be playing at the level he is playing at so early in his career. And doesn't the coaching staff deserve some of that credit? I was in Vegas this year, and had to shield my eyes a few times as I watched KAT struggling on the court against not very good centers. I could see the work ethic and the latent talent, but I predicted it was going to be a tough first season for him. But after a few weeks of training camp, he emerged as a totally different player than the guy we saw in Vegas...offensively and defensively. Sam and KAT are building a terrific relationship. Sam is tough on him, but KAT takes it all in and continues to get better. I don't want to interrupt that progress by bringing in a new guy for KAT to get used to.

Zach has had a difficult time adjusting to playing against bigger opposition at the SG position the past couple weeks, but still his year over year improvement has been stunning. Long forgotten is the flailing 11.3 PER player we had to watch last year, and in his place is a guy who has made a remarkable jump in PER to 15.63...and he's still only 20! Sam appears to be as tough on Zach as anyone (as Jim Pete brings out in the podcast), but Zach arguable needs direction more than any other player on the team. And you can't argue with the results. Sam gave Zach the chance to handle the ball at PG and take a lot of shots in the beginning of the season, and now he is letting him develop at what most people think is going to be his best role of SG (I'm not so sure yet, but Peterson thinks so). Some of Zach's huge jump this year is just natural progression, but his improvement is so remarkable that you have to give credit to Sam and his staff for that rapid development. Zach doesn't need a new coaching staff (well, maybe he doesn't need little Adelman).

As for Wig, that would be your best argument for development being stunted. While his PER has improved from 13.93 to 15.62, that can be explained as easily by natural growth as it can be by good coaching. I want more from Wiggins. Wig's scoring average has actually increased 4 PPG, but many of his other numbers are down from last year. Most troubling is his 3-point shooting. While his attempts are up more than 50% this year, his success rate is a dreadful 24%...and I don't remember many of his opportunities being contested. He's just missing them. But I wonder if Wig's poor shooting is Sam's fault...maybe it is. Should Sam be discouraging Wig's three-point shooting and encouraging him to drive to the basket and draw more fouls? I don't know...maybe. Wig has improved, but not as much as many of us would like to see.

I think arguing that KAT, Zach and Wig haven't shown, on balance, very good growth under Sam isn't an argument supported by the numbers.