Compile Statistical-Based Draft Models/Rankings Here

[SameOldNudityDrew]

It might be useful to have a thread that pulls together all of the draft rankings done by number-crunchers and analytics guys and compare them.

This is NOT a thread for predictions of where guys will be picked. And it is NOT a thread for offering our own rankings. It IS a thread for compiling and comparing what outsiders have claimed (hopefully backed up with some thorough statistical analysis and common sense eye testing).


DX has done this with several, compiled them into an average, and then compared those averages to their overall mocks, and found some interesting cases where the composite projections said guys would be worse than DX's mock draft position (Stein) or better (Wright, Looney, Cliff Alexander).

DX's First Compiled List (Includes 6 different models and their rankings)
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021/

DX's Second Compiled List (adds a couple more models, explains more, offers access to the spreadsheets)
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-Part-2-5068/


First, do you guys have any other rankings based on statistical models?

Here's a recent one from FiveThirtyEight.com.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

This one above is an interesting one. It projects statistical plus-minus (Towns on top), as well as the percentage chance of becoming a star, starter, role player, or bust. Russell has best chance of becoming a star . . . and also the best chance of becoming a bust! Towns is on top, though his chance of becoming a star is not as high as some might hope. And Winslow looks like a very safe pick, which gets him ranked high.

Edit: Whoa, that list has Dakari Johnson ranked much higher than most.


Second, it would be awesome if somebody here would be willing to add in this list above and any other extra lists you guys find to the composites started by DX.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Gotta love 538.com. The nerds over there are brilliant, especially with political stuff. But their sports rankings are very thorough and well-researched also. Keep in mind that they are only talking about college players, so guys like Mudiay, Porzingis and Hezonja are not included.

I found several things interesting, mostly because they supported my opinions :thumb: .

1) I have been touting Cliff Alexander as a great pick for us at 31, and 538 has him ranked 16th with over a 71% chance of being a starter or role player. He was a top 5 recruit at the start of the year, but clearly didn't hit it off with Bill Self and had a forgettable freshman year. He is going to be a very good NBA player, and would be a terrific pick for us at 31.

2) I'm a huge Stanley Johnson guy, and was pleased to see him ranked 3rd. As I have posted before, this guy is a SoCal high school legend, leading his team to 4 state championships. He's a winner, and is going to make some team very happy when they get him somewhere around 8-10. 538 gives him the same chance of starting as Towns.

3) Several posters here are high on Jerian Grant as a backup to Rubio, and even advocate giving up assets to move up and get him. I'm not as high on him, and have him rated behind several PG's. Same with 538.com. They have him ranked as only the 8th best PG and have him ranked 41st with a 52 % chance of being a bust. Ahead of him and certain to be available to us with pick 36 is TJ McConnell, who I think is exactly what we are looking for in a backup PG. He is a tough, pass-first PG (6.3 assists and only 2.1 TO's last year, and was one of the best PG college defenders. Perfect for us.

Great stuff here. I'm in favor of drafting Towns, Alexander and McConnell. I know carrying three rookies is unlikely, but that would be a stellar draft.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Gotta love 538.com. The nerds over there are brilliant, especially with political stuff. But their sports rankings are very thorough and well-researched also. Keep in mind that they are only talking about college players, so guys like Mudiay, Porzingis and Hezonja are not included.

I found several things interesting, mostly because they supported my opinions :thumb: .

1) I have been touting Cliff Alexander as a great pick for us at 31, and 538 has him ranked 16th with over a 71% chance of being a starter or role player. He was a top 5 recruit at the start of the year, but clearly didn't hit it off with Bill Self and had a forgettable freshman year. He is going to be a very good NBA player, and would be a terrific pick for us at 31.

2) I'm a huge Stanley Johnson guy, and was pleased to see him ranked 3rd. As I have posted before, this guy is a SoCal high school legend, leading his team to 4 state championships. He's a winner, and is going to make some team very happy when they get him somewhere around 8-10. 538 gives him the same chance of starting as Towns.

3) Several posters here are high on Jerian Grant as a backup to Rubio, and even advocate giving up assets to move up and get him. I'm not as high on him, and have him rated behind several PG's. Same with 538.com. They have him ranked as only the 8th best PG and have him ranked 41st with a 52 % chance of being a bust. Ahead of him and certain to be available to us with pick 36 is TJ McConnell, who I think is exactly what we are looking for in a backup PG. He is a tough, pass-first PG (6.3 assists and only 2.1 TO's last year, and was one of the best PG college defenders. Perfect for us.

Great stuff here. I'm in favor of drafting Towns, Alexander and McConnell. I know carrying three rookies is unlikely, but that would be a stellar draft.

Can't say I agree. I have watched a bunch of videos of Alexander, including his most recent workout videos, and what I see is not only an undersized player...but also a player with very limited athleticism. This is not to say he can't become a good player, but his basic attributes certainly don't stand out. Also add in his struggles this year, and I think he is overrated. Even at pick 31, I struggle to take him.

And TJ MConnell. There is no way this guy plays in the NBA. Look, I like him as a college player as much as anyone, but every year these guys are touted by many on this board (see dude from Florida last year...can't think of his name), and they simply don't have the size, athleticism, or game to play in the NBA. He may be able to play in Europe.....but I want nothing to do with him.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Gotta love 538.com. The nerds over there are brilliant, especially with political stuff. But their sports rankings are very thorough and well-researched also. Keep in mind that they are only talking about college players, so guys like Mudiay, Porzingis and Hezonja are not included.

I found several things interesting, mostly because they supported my opinions :thumb: .

1) I have been touting Cliff Alexander as a great pick for us at 31, and 538 has him ranked 16th with over a 71% chance of being a starter or role player. He was a top 5 recruit at the start of the year, but clearly didn't hit it off with Bill Self and had a forgettable freshman year. He is going to be a very good NBA player, and would be a terrific pick for us at 31.

2) I'm a huge Stanley Johnson guy, and was pleased to see him ranked 3rd. As I have posted before, this guy is a SoCal high school legend, leading his team to 4 state championships. He's a winner, and is going to make some team very happy when they get him somewhere around 8-10. 538 gives him the same chance of starting as Towns.

3) Several posters here are high on Jerian Grant as a backup to Rubio, and even advocate giving up assets to move up and get him. I'm not as high on him, and have him rated behind several PG's. Same with 538.com. They have him ranked as only the 8th best PG and have him ranked 41st with a 52 % chance of being a bust. Ahead of him and certain to be available to us with pick 36 is TJ McConnell, who I think is exactly what we are looking for in a backup PG. He is a tough, pass-first PG (6.3 assists and only 2.1 TO's last year, and was one of the best PG college defenders. Perfect for us.

Great stuff here. I'm in favor of drafting Towns, Alexander and McConnell. I know carrying three rookies is unlikely, but that would be a stellar draft.

Can't say I agree. I have watched a bunch of videos of Alexander, including his most recent workout videos, and what I see is not only an undersized player...but also a player with very limited athleticism. This is not to say he can't become a good player, but his basic attributes certainly don't stand out. Also add in his struggles this year, and I think he is overrated. Even at pick 31, I struggle to take him.

And TJ MConnell. There is no way this guy plays in the NBA. Look, I like him as a college player as much as anyone, but every year these guys are touted by many on this board (see dude from Florida last year...can't think of his name), and they simply don't have the size, athleticism, or game to play in the NBA. He may be able to play in Europe.....but I want nothing to do with him.

I would describe Alexander as "undertall", not undersized, because he is a chiseled 254 with an almost 7-4 wingspan! I would agree that he is not an explosive athlete, but he moves very well...especially for a guy that big. He seems to me to be the kind of guy who will do the dirty work on the boards for you...kind of a skilled version of Jeff Adrien. He has an unusual personality though and might not be Flip's kind of guy.

I was a little surprised at McConnell's ranking too, because he's not a great scorer. But I think he may be an ideal pairing on a second unit with Martin and Shabazz. He reminds me a lot of a Dellavadova who doesn't need to score. Just feed our bench scorers and play gritty defense, and I'd be happy.

[Monster]

Gotta love 538.com. The nerds over there are brilliant, especially with political stuff. But their sports rankings are very thorough and well-researched also. Keep in mind that they are only talking about college players, so guys like Mudiay, Porzingis and Hezonja are not included.

I found several things interesting, mostly because they supported my opinions :thumb: .

1) I have been touting Cliff Alexander as a great pick for us at 31, and 538 has him ranked 16th with over a 71% chance of being a starter or role player. He was a top 5 recruit at the start of the year, but clearly didn't hit it off with Bill Self and had a forgettable freshman year. He is going to be a very good NBA player, and would be a terrific pick for us at 31.

2) I'm a huge Stanley Johnson guy, and was pleased to see him ranked 3rd. As I have posted before, this guy is a SoCal high school legend, leading his team to 4 state championships. He's a winner, and is going to make some team very happy when they get him somewhere around 8-10. 538 gives him the same chance of starting as Towns.

3) Several posters here are high on Jerian Grant as a backup to Rubio, and even advocate giving up assets to move up and get him. I'm not as high on him, and have him rated behind several PG's. Same with 538.com. They have him ranked as only the 8th best PG and have him ranked 41st with a 52 % chance of being a bust. Ahead of him and certain to be available to us with pick 36 is TJ McConnell, who I think is exactly what we are looking for in a backup PG. He is a tough, pass-first PG (6.3 assists and only 2.1 TO's last year, and was one of the best PG college defenders. Perfect for us.

Great stuff here. I'm in favor of drafting Towns, Alexander and McConnell. I know carrying three rookies is unlikely, but that would be a stellar draft.

Can't say I agree. I have watched a bunch of videos of Alexander, including his most recent workout videos, and what I see is not only an undersized player...but also a player with very limited athleticism. This is not to say he can't become a good player, but his basic attributes certainly don't stand out. Also add in his struggles this year, and I think he is overrated. Even at pick 31, I struggle to take him.

And TJ MConnell. There is no way this guy plays in the NBA. Look, I like him as a college player as much as anyone, but every year these guys are touted by many on this board (see dude from Florida last year...can't think of his name), and they simply don't have the size, athleticism, or game to play in the NBA. He may be able to play in Europe.....but I want nothing to do with him.

I would describe Alexander as "undertall", not undersized, because he is a chiseled 254 with an almost 7-4 wingspan! I would agree that he is not an explosive athlete, but he moves very well...especially for a guy that big. He seems to me to be the kind of guy who will do the dirty work on the boards for you...kind of a skilled version of Jeff Adrien. He has an unusual personality though and might not be Flip's kind of guy.

I was a little surprised at McConnell's ranking too, because he's not a great scorer. But I think he may be an ideal pairing on a second unit with Martin and Shabazz. He reminds me a lot of a Dellavadova who doesn't need to score. Just feed our bench scorers and play gritty defense, and I'd be happy.

TJ is more of an Aaron Craft guy but he is shorter but looks to have a better shot. I wouldn't take him with #36 though that's too high. Buy a later 2nd round pick or offer him a deal if he is undrafted. He seems to be the type that Q is looking for though. :)

[60WinTim]

Unless someone falls to us at 31 that Flip wants (or we move back into the first round), it seems highly unlikely we will be taking anyone in the 2nd round that will be on the roster to start the season...

[slimcalhoun27 [enjin:6640095]]

It doesnt sound like many up here have watched TJ play at all....since I went to the U of A, I watched nearly every game for 18 years now. If you ever wanted a PG with balls, leadership and the ability to hit the shot when needed...then its TJ. For me he is a Bobby Hurley mini....and his size doesnt botther me in the NBA as a bench player. But his tangibles is just not seen in College anymore and his IQ is off the charts. I would take him late second if possible.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

It doesnt sound like many up here have watched TJ play at all....since I went to the U of A, I watched nearly every game for 18 years now. If you ever wanted a PG with balls, leadership and the ability to hit the shot when needed...then its TJ. For me he is a Bobby Hurley mini....and his size doesnt botther me in the NBA as a bench player. But his tangibles is just not seen in College anymore and his IQ is off the charts. I would take him late second if possible.

I'm with you, slim. and probably like him even more than you because I would consider him at 36 if Flip hadn't already picked his PG backup. He's a guy you can go to battle with. PG defense was a huge issue for the Wolves last year when Rubio was out, and TJ would go a long way to fixing that problem.

[slimcalhoun27 [enjin:6640095]]

It doesnt sound like many up here have watched TJ play at all....since I went to the U of A, I watched nearly every game for 18 years now. If you ever wanted a PG with balls, leadership and the ability to hit the shot when needed...then its TJ. For me he is a Bobby Hurley mini....and his size doesnt botther me in the NBA as a bench player. But his tangibles is just not seen in College anymore and his IQ is off the charts. I would take him late second if possible.

I'm with you, slim. and probably like him even more than you because I would consider him at 36 if Flip hadn't already picked his PG backup. He's a guy you can go to battle with. PG defense was a huge issue for the Wolves last year when Rubio was out, and TJ would go a long way to fixing that problem.

I love a guy who slaps the court and is the emotional rock of a squad. He had a ton of talent around him the last few years in Arizona, (Gordon, RHJ, Stan Johnson, Nic Johnson etc etc.) he was the rock and got talent to perform. Love this dude

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Uhhh, looking for statistical-based projections here guys!

Here's one that's not so much for rankings as it maps out comparisons for players who had similar college seasons. They've only crunched top 5 prospects, but there's a link where you can do it for anybody and tweak the criteria. It's pretty fun, actually.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2460970-statistical-comparisons-for-the-top-5-prospects-of-the-2015-nba-draft

This model is also critical of Willie Cauley-Stein, and it's not the first. I wonder if they're right and he's really not going to be that good, or if he's underrated by those models because the models are based on players who have come previously statistically, and Cauley-Stein's length and athleticism are just really unique defensively and don't necessarily show up in the box score. People concerned about defending the pick-n-roll might still value him more than some of these models.

Any other models out there? Any other trends you guys see in the existing models I've posted and that DX compiled?