Draft reality check

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm trying to remain positive about this year's draft, and I fully admit that Flip knows more about what is going on out there than any of us, but I'm having a difficult job getting excited about the immediate prospects of LaVine and Robinson. I was really hoping that we would get some immediate help from this year's draft and especially wanted us to come away with Stauskas or Harris at SG, two guys who I believe would have gotten rotation minutes at SG. But I will be quite surprised if either of our draftees gets off the bench much this year except for garbage minutes. Here is the reality check on each of them.

LaVine:. This was a stretch pick of monumental proportion, and a surprisingly risky pick for Flip. As I have pointed out before, I don't think anybody can name a college non-center that averaged less than 10 points per game in his draft year and still ended up a lottery pick. It's also unusual, and perhaps unprecedented, for a lottery pick to not make the starting lineup in college. Because there just isn't any data for us to sink our teeth into, Flip is asking us to accept this pick based solely on potential. I don't know how many of you watched Zach much this year, but not once did I watch him and see a guy who belonged in the 2014 NBA draft, much less in the lottery. I saw a guy with obvious athletic gifts which might be highlighted once a game in the open court, but more often was completely invisible in UCLA's half court offense. His PER of 14.9 describes the impact he had on the offensive side of the court...only James Young (16.8) had a sub-20 PER of all the college players projected to go in the first round of the draft. And it's not like his defense or peripheral numbers made up for his lack of scoring.

Some of you have tried to make a Russell Westbrook comp, not from a playing style, but as an example of a guy who also didn't start or produce his first year at UCLA. Some have even tried to say LaVine's freshman year was comparable to Westbrook's sophomore year. Come on guys! I'm sure you saw a lot of Westbrook that year, and realize that he was a major cog in that Final Four team. Russell got better and better as the season progressed, and ended up averaging 17.7 PPG in his final three NCAA games. In contrast, LaVine seemed to go backward as the season progressed, and averaged only 2.7 points on 3 for 15 shooting in his 3 tournament games. The newspapers here were hypothesizing that LaVine would return for his sophomore year, but a day or two after UCLA was eliminated, he declared for the draft.

I agree that LaVine looks great in his youtube workouts, but I wish he had done something this year to deserve a lottery selection... instead he had a completely forgettable freshman year. It sounds like he had a tremendous workout for the Wolves, and I'm concerned that Flip developed a crush. I hope I'm wrong, and Zach turns out to be a guy worthy of a 13th pick, but I can't imagine the guy I watched this year contributing for several years.

Robinson: Unlike LaVine, Robinson does have two years of meaningful data that we can analyze, and his numbers are pretty good. But they are the kind of numbers you would expect from a second rounder. I'm not saying Glenn was a bad pick, in fact I think it was a very good selection. I'm just suggesting that we tone down our expectations for what he will contribute this year. We have a glut of guys at SF, and everyone of them was more productive in college by any measure. Look at the stats in each of their final college season:

Robinson: 13.9 PPG 4.4 rebounds 1.2 assists
Budinger 18/ 6.2/ 3.4
Hummel 16.4/ 6.8/ 1.9
Bazz 17.9/ 5.2/ .8
Brewer 13.2/ 4.7/ 2.9

There's no question that Glenn ranks last in this group in terms of production, since he was last in all three categories except for beating Brewer by .7 points and Shabazz by .4 assists (that one kind of surprised me!).

Most of us here believe Flip is going to try to move 1 or 2 of these SF's before training camp, and that will allow Glenn to move up a little. But absent that, and considering the steep learning curve all NBA rookies face anyway, I would be quite surprised if Glenn gets off the bench much this year

I'm a Flip fan, so I'm reasonably confident this draft will turn out better than I thought when I went to sleep Thursday night...I'm already feelling better about it, but my optimism is out several years. I'm just trying to temper some of the unwarranted enthusiasm here, because neither of these guys is likely to contribute much this season

[60WinTim]

I'm not sure Gary Harris can be ear-marked for the regular rotation in his rookie year, either...

Here's a pretty good podcast with Doogie discussing the Wolves.

http://www.1500espn.com/shows/sob

We should just assume Love and Martin will be traded for Klay and Lee (other parts may be involved). We should also just assume Steve Blake (I prefer Livingston) will be on the team as well. That give us:

Rubio / Blake / Barea / Shved
Klay / Shabazz / LaVine
Brewer / Bud / Robinson
Lee / Mbah Moute
Pek / Deing / Turiaf

Some combination of Barea, Shved and/or Bud will be traded to add depth at PF and that is our team.

[Monster]

LST you make some great points but why are you killing the draft buzz so early? Lol The draft reality is when you go into the draft where we were picking the odds aren't in your favor for getting guys that will help you right away and realistically ever. Its draft time so we can be excited and positive and hope for the best.

One of the weirdest things in the draft was how nobody (experts and most fans) really brought up Gary Harris being so short. I mean guys can overcome a couple inches but serious the dude is comboguard sized at best. I'd have been happy with him at #13 but he had some drawbacks that's for sure.

The reality is its a crapshoot. Hopefully Flip pulled out something with LaVine I'm warming up to the pick and he might be able to contribute he shot the ball from 3 at a good rate last year. I don't expect it but Flip will probably give him some chances this year which may be fun we will see.

[Coolbreeze44]

I think we all should have a reality check. Consider:

1) We can't make the playoffs with Love
2) The West only became stronger so far this offseason with the draft of Denver and the maturation of the Pelicans
3) We certainly can't make the playoffs without Love
4) We have no cap space
5) We have no draft assets
6) We are tied to contracts that will restrict our ability to make moves

As most of you know, I wanted to go the route of trading Love in a deal based on multiple picks. Given what is pointed out above, that would seem to have been the best strategy.

As difficult as it is for a lot of fans to stomach another rebuild, what choice do we have? It wouldn't have to be a complete rebuild. We can build around Ricky, Pek, and Dieng. But failure to begin that rebuild only extends the timeframe for us to become contenders. Personally I can't stomach another 7 years before we make the playoffs. And that is what is likely to happen if we try to reach for that 8th spot for the next couple years before realizing it's fruitless.

I'd take Boston's 2 first round picks they just made and add to it. I think the Love to Cleveland dream died today when Wade and Bosh opted out. It's just totally depressing to think we are going to try to stay competitive at the expense of becoming a possible contender in the next 3-4 years.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

You might be right about Harris, Tim, but having watched both Harris and LaVine a lot last year, Harris appeared much more NBA ready.

I'm looking forward to listening to the podcast. I think the scenario you depict is very realistic, both from a deal perspective and a rotation perspective. although listening to Flip, it really sounds to me like he believes in Shved as a PG. What I especially like about your rotation is that it realistically puts the rookies on the third team...that's the main point I was trying to make. Maybe they turn out to be great draft picks in the long run, but short-term I don't see them as NBA-ready as Shabazz/Gorgui were last year.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Rookies don't make significant impacts on good teams anyway, so to pin your hopes on having our rookies this year all of a sudden make us a playoff team was just the wrong expectations to have. I just don't get where this attitude of rookies making significant impacts is coming from. Almost nobody does anything in year 1 and if they do, they are stuffing stat sheets on bad teams and not contributing to the W-L column. When is the last playoffs you saw where a rookie made any kind of winning impact on a series? I can't think of anybody that was a standout in the playoffs while also being a rookie in the last 10 years. This isn't the NFL where they come in mostly at the size they need to be to be effective. The speed and strength of good college football is much closer to the NFL level than the speed and strength of college basketball to the NBA. Combine that with the fact that these guys are mostly 2,3 and 4 years younger on average than guys going to the NFL and that just goes to show how unready they are going to be playing at the next level. Also combine that with the fact that they go from playing 30+ games in college to back to backs and 82 games overall with much harsher traveling schedules (though the better conditions make up for some of that schedule). College to NFL is 13 to 16. You can play 4 years of college ball or 1 and you're still not going to be ready to do anything significant on a basketball court for a full 82 games. Their body just isn't ready for that big of a jump in time you need to be competing at 100%. If you're not supposed to judge a draft fairly until 3-4 years out, then why is it fair to expect these guys to make impacts right away that could push us into the playoffs?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST you make some great points but why are you killing the draft buzz so early? Lol The draft reality is when you go into the draft where we were picking the odds aren't in your favor for getting guys that will help you right away and realistically ever. Its draft time so we can be excited and positive and hope for the best.

One of the weirdest things in the draft was how nobody (experts and most fans) really brought up Gary Harris being so short. I mean guys can overcome a couple inches but serious the dude is comboguard sized at best. I'd have been happy with him at #13 but he had some drawbacks that's for sure.

The reality is its a crapshoot. Hopefully Flip pulled out something with LaVine I'm warming up to the pick and he might be able to contribute he shot the ball from 3 at a good rate last year. I don't expect it but Flip will probably give him some chances this year which may be fun we will see.

Yeah, Gary's measurement without shoes really killed him in the draft. You gotta wonder if he got a bad measurement, because he only measures 1 1/4 inches shorter than LaVine in shoes. Harris was funny in his interviews talking about this and said "It's a good thing most NBA players play in shoes!"

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think we all should have a reality check. Consider:

1) We can't make the playoffs with Love
2) The West only became stronger so far this offseason with the draft of Denver and the maturation of the Pelicans
3) We certainly can't make the playoffs without Love
4) We have no cap space
5) We have no draft assets
6) We are tied to contracts that will restrict our ability to make moves

As most of you know, I wanted to go the route of trading Love in a deal based on multiple picks. Given what is pointed out above, that would seem to have been the best strategy.

As difficult as it is for a lot of fans to stomach another rebuild, what choice do we have? It wouldn't have to be a complete rebuild. We can build around Ricky, Pek, and Dieng. But failure to begin that rebuild only extends the timeframe for us to become contenders. Personally I can't stomach another 7 years before we make the playoffs. And that is what is likely to happen if we try to reach for that 8th spot for the next couple years before realizing it's fruitless.

I'd take Boston's 2 first round picks they just made and add to it. I think the Love to Cleveland dream died today when Wade and Bosh opted out. It's just totally depressing to think we are going to try to stay competitive at the expense of becoming a possible contender in the next 3-4 years.

Cool, I think many of us were wishing for Love to be traded for multiple picks, but for me it was a long-shot wish at best. I just couldn't see any GM giving us anything valuable for only a one-year rental certain, especially when all the decision-making power resides with a flaky narcissist like Love. It's likely Flip received a lot of crap offers, and we should all be grateful he didn't panic and just take best offer. All the pre-draft chatter about getting Olynyk and 3-4 picks or Waiters and #1 was fun, but it's also fun to think about a date with Kate Upton...and about as likely!

[Monster]

Rookies don't make significant impacts on good teams anyway, so to pin your hopes on having our rookies this year all of a sudden make us a playoff team was just the wrong expectations to have. I just don't get where this attitude of rookies making significant impacts is coming from. Almost nobody does anything in year 1 and if they do, they are stuffing stat sheets on bad teams and not contributing to the W-L column. When is the last playoffs you saw where a rookie made any kind of winning impact on a series? I can't think of anybody that was a standout in the playoffs while also being a rookie in the last 10 years. This isn't the NFL where they come in mostly at the size they need to be to be effective. The speed and strength of good college football is much closer to the NFL level than the speed and strength of college basketball to the NBA. Combine that with the fact that these guys are mostly 2,3 and 4 years younger on average than guys going to the NFL and that just goes to show how unready they are going to be playing at the next level. Also combine that with the fact that they go from playing 30+ games in college to back to backs and 82 games overall with much harsher traveling schedules (though the better conditions make up for some of that schedule). College to NFL is 13 to 16. You can play 4 years of college ball or 1 and you're still not going to be ready to do anything significant on a basketball court for a full 82 games. Their body just isn't ready for that big of a jump in time you need to be competing at 100%. If you're not supposed to judge a draft fairly until 3-4 years out, then why is it fair to expect these guys to make impacts right away that could push us into the playoffs?

Rookies don't make significant impacts on good teams anyway, so to pin your hopes on having our rookies this year all of a sudden make us a playoff team was just the wrong expectations to have. I just don't get where this attitude of rookies making significant impacts is coming from. Almost nobody does anything in year 1 and if they do, they are stuffing stat sheets on bad teams and not contributing to the W-L column. When is the last playoffs you saw where a rookie made any kind of winning impact on a series? I can't think of anybody that was a standout in the playoffs while also being a rookie in the last 10 years. This isn't the NFL where they come in mostly at the size they need to be to be effective. The speed and strength of good college football is much closer to the NFL level than the speed and strength of college basketball to the NBA. Combine that with the fact that these guys are mostly 2,3 and 4 years younger on average than guys going to the NFL and that just goes to show how unready they are going to be playing at the next level. Also combine that with the fact that they go from playing 30+ games in college to back to backs and 82 games overall with much harsher traveling schedules (though the better conditions make up for some of that schedule). College to NFL is 13 to 16. You can play 4 years of college ball or 1 and you're still not going to be ready to do anything significant on a basketball court for a full 82 games. Their body just isn't ready for that big of a jump in time you need to be competing at 100%. If you're not supposed to judge a draft fairly until 3-4 years out, then why is it fair to expect these guys to make impacts right away that could push us into the playoffs?

Kawhi Leonard was pretty big for the Spurs and that wasn't too hard to come up with one guy. There are more just sayin.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

If you consider 8 PPG and 5 RPG's a significant contribution, then we have two very different definitions of what a significant contributor is. He had to drop 20 multiple times to win the playoff MVP, so I would say he wasn't much of a factor in year 1. Hummel can give us 8 and 5.