So knowing that the Wolves WANT to make a splash...

[AbeVigodaLive]

Every new regime wants to make its mark, especially when there's not a whole lot to lose.

It's pretty obvious that Andrew Wiggins isn't going to flourish here. There's a slim chance he maybe, possibly could improve elsewhere. But who'll take him? And at what cost?

As we know, the Wolves are going to either have to add stuff... or get limited assets back. Maybe even diminishing returns.

Right now, Wiggins is the overpaid scapegoat in MN. Nicolas Batum is the overpaid scapegoat in Charlotte.

1) Batum is on the wrong side of 30 and averaged 9.4 ppg last season... the lowest since his rookie season. His ceiling is getting lower... and lower.
2) Wiggins can get you 20 ppg. Just don't look too closely at how he's doing it... more importantly, I don't know if there's a guy in the NBA who might need a change of scenery more than him. Charlotte is going to be awful. And they just overpaid for the most inefficient starting PG (worse than Rubio). Apparently, the regime thinks ppg >> efficiency.

Batum is the better player than Andrew Wiggins right now. He's more efficient. He's smarter. But if Wiggins doesn't mail it in... that should change.

Think Batum = Mike Miller. That's not a good thing... I hated watching Mike Miller play here. But that was when the team was desperate for him to make shots, or even take them. Miller refused. Batum isn't going to shoot much. But does he need to?


[note: this is putting a a lot of pressure on culver. he'll need to be able to create offense for himself if wiggins is gone and batum is brought in.]

[TAFKASP]

If they'll include a bag of stale chips with Batum count me in.

[Monster]

A couple things about Batum.

Before this year 3 out of 4 of his previous years he was pretty inefficient himself. What version of him or Wiggins are you going to get the next 2 seasons?

Batum has multiple seasons where he averaged over 5 assists a game. The previous year I remember hearing some stat about him running quite a few pick and rolls and had one of the worst rankings in terms of success in that area. Obviously he would be an upgrade over Wiggins in that area.

Is Batum sort of a low end but somewhat useful comp for what Culver could become?

Batum doesn't suck but he isn't particularly good either. Some of his numbers look better this year. Like the numbers I mentioned before I've heard some negatives about him about a year ago including him being a bad defender. I obviously don't watch Hornets games so...I will just say my knowledge is limited.

Now to the deal...which I think you have laid out well and I've honestly considered this swap a number of times before. I personally have just enough hope Wiggins can at least put up some numbers this season to make him more intriguing to teams around the league than wanting to pay Batum 50+ million to be "Mike Miller". It would save the Wolves about 2 million each of the next 2 years so that's something in addition to not having to pay him that next 2 years. This would be an absolute punt on Wiggins. I realize that's what you are going for and I'm not going to argue against it because I think it's a fair position that I don't even know if I actually disagree with. I guess I think the possible damage of keeping Wiggins compared to him repairing his value outweighs bringing on Batum. If this is the type of deal we have to settle on I think that kind of thing will be there unless Wiggins gets hurt and REALLY sucks which are both possible.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Here's are a few interesting stats (wonky Joe Mauer-esque edition):

- Nicolas Batum has never had a negative VORP. Last year, it was (1.7). So by that metric, he's better than the average replacement player. Andrew Wiggins has never had a positive VORP.
- Batum has never had a negative DBPM. Andrew Wiggins has never had a positive DBPM (career best is -1.3 last year).
- Batum just had his worst OBPM (-0.1). Wiggins had his worst year, too... (-1.7).
- Batum's WORST BPM is last season's 0.8 BPM. Wiggins' BEST BPM is -2.1 four years ago.

Now, those are specific stats. Fair enough. And Wiggins did have a better PER last season (12.4 > 11.9). So he has Batum there. But I dunno...

For example, over the past two seasons when the Wolves have had the most success in Wiggins career, he has 2.7 total Win Shares. Meanwhile, Batum has had arguably the two worst seasons of his career for a Hornets team that wasn't as successful... and has 7.2 total Win Shares.

Again, Wiggins should be a better NBA player than Nic Batum eventually. Are we willing to bet on it being in one of the next two seasons? And even if he does get better once Batum retires... do the Wolves want to keep paying him about $30M?

Or, will they enjoy the cap space since Batum's contract is shorter?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I get Wiggins has faults. I have no interest in just dumping him for the sake of getting his salary off the roster. We just brought in a GM who came from THE analytic driven franchise in the league while we've had nothing but old school thinkers since Andrew was traded here. I'm willing to give it another year to see if there is any improvement now that we will be taking a more analytical approach to the game. We should in theory be playing a different game this year than we were used to under Thibs. We don't use cap space effectively up here so that money really does nothing for us. Might as well see if a new system can lead to improvement that could net us a better return than a washed 30 year old just to get off salary.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I get Wiggins has faults. I have no interest in just dumping him for the sake of getting his salary off the roster. We just brought in a GM who came from THE analytic driven franchise in the league while we've had nothing but old school thinkers since Andrew was traded here. I'm willing to give it another year to see if there is any improvement now that we will be taking a more analytical approach to the game. We should in theory be playing a different game this year than we were used to under Thibs. We don't use cap space effectively up here so that money really does nothing for us. Might as well see if a new system can lead to improvement that could net us a better return than a washed 30 year old just to get off salary.

Fair enough. I can see value in your take...

But I also just posted a bunch of stats that show Batum's value via basic analytics. Are they the same analytics that Rosas values? I dunno...

[Monster]

Here's are a few interesting stats (wonky Joe Mauer-esque edition):

- Nicolas Batum has never had a negative VORP. Last year, it was (1.7). So by that metric, he's better than the average replacement player. Andrew Wiggins has never had a positive VORP.
- Batum has never had a negative DBPM. Andrew Wiggins has never had a positive DBPM (career best is -1.3 last year).
- Batum just had his worst OBPM (-0.1). Wiggins had his worst year, too... (-1.7).
- Batum's WORST BPM is last season's 0.8 BPM. Wiggins' BEST BPM is -2.1 four years ago.

Now, those are specific stats. Fair enough. And Wiggins did have a better PER last season (12.4 > 11.9). So he has Batum there. But I dunno...

For example, over the past two seasons when the Wolves have had the most success in Wiggins career, he has 2.7 total Win Shares. Meanwhile, Batum has had arguably the two worst seasons of his career for a Hornets team that wasn't as successful... and has 7.2 total Win Shares.

Again, Wiggins should be a better NBA player than Nic Batum eventually. Are we willing to bet on it being in one of the next two seasons? And even if he does get better once Batum retires... do the Wolves want to keep paying him about $30M?

Or, will they enjoy the cap space since Batum's contract is shorter?

Yep those stats are pretty damning for Wiggins. To me (not dismissing these stats at all) the question is do you buy into the idea that Wiggins is actually that useless and Batum is actually useful? Idk i'll Admit my bias both sides good and bad watching Wiggins play 70+ games every year and barely noticing Batum except seeing his stats when I look up Wiggins trade possibilities. :) Wiggins career does parallel to Derozen for some of these stats. He started being a positive when they brought in a new GM...hope?!? :) Saving 2 years of Wiggins and a year from now having a guy that's an expiring a year from now isn't nothing but...it's still not that exciting...which is kinda where we are at with Wiggins. I'd rather hope Wiggins returns to being just inefficient (instead of brutal) and putting up some good numbers with the hope some team convinces themselves they want him than having to do a deal like this but again that's just me. Maybe if I saw Batum play even 10 games I would have a different take.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I get Wiggins has faults. I have no interest in just dumping him for the sake of getting his salary off the roster. We just brought in a GM who came from THE analytic driven franchise in the league while we've had nothing but old school thinkers since Andrew was traded here. I'm willing to give it another year to see if there is any improvement now that we will be taking a more analytical approach to the game. We should in theory be playing a different game this year than we were used to under Thibs. We don't use cap space effectively up here so that money really does nothing for us. Might as well see if a new system can lead to improvement that could net us a better return than a washed 30 year old just to get off salary.

Fair enough. I can see value in your take...

But I also just posted a bunch of stats that show Batum's value via basic analytics. Are they the same analytics that Rosas values? I dunno...

I don't really see the basketball benefit to this move being enough to be a good reason to make the trade. Trading a slightly below replacement level player in Wiggins for an older, but slightly above replacement level player in Batum doesn't move the needle much for basketball purposes. I can understand just wanting to get off Wiggins' deal even if I disagree with it. This deal however doesn't do much to improve us on the court both short and long-term.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I get Wiggins has faults. I have no interest in just dumping him for the sake of getting his salary off the roster. We just brought in a GM who came from THE analytic driven franchise in the league while we've had nothing but old school thinkers since Andrew was traded here. I'm willing to give it another year to see if there is any improvement now that we will be taking a more analytical approach to the game. We should in theory be playing a different game this year than we were used to under Thibs. We don't use cap space effectively up here so that money really does nothing for us. Might as well see if a new system can lead to improvement that could net us a better return than a washed 30 year old just to get off salary.

Fair enough. I can see value in your take...

But I also just posted a bunch of stats that show Batum's value via basic analytics. Are they the same analytics that Rosas values? I dunno...

I don't really see the basketball benefit to this move being enough to be a good reason to make the trade. Trading a slightly below replacement level player in Wiggins for an older, but slightly above replacement level player in Batum doesn't move the needle much for basketball purposes. I can understand just wanting to get off Wiggins' deal even if I disagree with it. This deal however doesn't do much to improve us on the court both short and long-term.

Well, there are mixed thoughts on whether the Wolves can unload Wiggins for any favorable assets. So to get a slightly better than average player in return for a year... might be enough?

After all, next season, Batum can be shopped for cap space in his last year of his deal.

Wiggins' deal is for twice as long. That's significant.




[Note: I remember one of the Wolves best trades... simply getting rid of Isiah Rider to create a new culture around the team. They didn't get much back in return. It was addition by subtraction.]

[thedoper]

The Batum splash. Nice.