The Peril of Trading Future Picks

[Lipoli390]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/traded-nba-draft-picks-gold-magic-johnson-barkley/

[Lipoli390]

Here's an excerpt about the drat pick them Lakers acquired that eventually landed them Magic Johnson:

We travel nine years forward for our next case, to the 1979 draft and the Los Angeles Lakers' selection of the franchise's greatest player ever, Magic Johnson, who they selected No. 1 overall that year with a pick that was originally owned by the then-New Orleans Jazz.

What were the Jazz thinking trading such a valuable pick, you might ask?

We have to go back to 1976 for that answer.

Back then, league rules stated if a team signed away another team's veteran player, they would need to compensate that team with draft capital. Well, the Jazz did just that after they signed a 33-year-old Gail Goodrich away from the Lakers in a deal that saw both teams send each other draft picks (via Basketball-Reference):

August 5, 1976: The New Orleans Jazz traded a 1977 1st round draft pick (Kenny Carr was later selected), a 1978 1st round draft pick (Freeman Williams was later selected), a 1979 1st round draft pick (Magic Johnson was later selected) and a 1980 2nd round draft pick (Sam Worthen was later selected) to the Los Angeles Lakers for a 1977 2nd round draft pick (Essie Hollis was later selected) and a 1978 1st round draft pick (Jack Givens was later selected). This exchange was arranged as compensation for Utah signing veteran free agent Gail Goodrich on July 19, 1976.

Three first-round picks and a second-round pick just to sign a 33-year-old Goodrich and receive a first-round pick and a second-round pick in return.

Yikes.

Of course, the Jazz could not have known that Goodrich - who was one season removed from four straight All-Star appearances and who New Orleans acquired to pair with Maravich, an All-NBA-level player at the time - would blow out his Achilles during his first campaign with the team and never regain his form. They also could not have known that just two seasons later, they would bottom out at 26-56 and see their 1979 draft pick become the No. 1 overall selection.

That pick, obviously, became Magic Johnson and the rest is now Lakers folklore.

This is why teams today refuse to trade future high-level draft capital without serious protections on it unless they are sure they are receiving a certified superstar in return. The risk is just far too great.

[Phenom]

Let's do both extremes. If the Wolves win 1 chip in the next 4 years with Gobert but the Wolves gave up the next Magic Johnson in '27, was it a good deal?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Let's do both extremes. If the Wolves win 1 chip in the next 4 years with Gobert but the Wolves gave up the next Magic Johnson in '27, was it a good deal?

A resounding yes. If a trade directly leads to a franchise winning a championship, then it clearly accomplished the main goal. It's a win at that moment regardless of what happens for the other team.

A recent example of this was Cleveland trading the top overall pick in Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love, and then winning a title. While not the best player on that team, Love was a big contributor. Even if Wiggins would have reached his "Maple Jordan" type ceiling, Cleveland would have to feel good about that move.

[ItsJustSoSab]

Let's do both extremes. If the Wolves win 1 chip in the next 4 years with Gobert but the Wolves gave up the next Magic Johnson in '27, was it a good deal?

A resounding yes. If a trade directly leads to a franchise winning a championship, then it clearly accomplished the main goal. It's a win at that moment regardless of what happens for the other team.

A recent example of this was Cleveland trading the top overall pick in Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love, and then winning a title. While not the best player on that team, Love was a big contributor. Even if Wiggins would have reached his "Maple Jordan" type ceiling, Cleveland would have to feel good about that move.

What this guy said.

[Wolvesfan21]

As a Wolves fan I'm not at all concerned about the picks we traded. We've had plenty of Kris Dunns, Culvers and Wesley Johnsons in our draft history to make me not care that we might miss on the rare superstar. Odds are very low any of those picks turn out to be a great player.

The Wolves have to have been the worst drafters in NBA history. That would be an interesting list to compile. Luckily our recent success of hitting on Ant and likely getting a starter at minimum out of Jaden has put us into a nice place to get Gobert and make us a potential contender.

That is what was funny for me when everyone seemingly was hammering the Gobert trade. Have you seen what our draft picks have gotten us in the last 20 years? lol

[Phenom]

Let's do both extremes. If the Wolves win 1 chip in the next 4 years with Gobert but the Wolves gave up the next Magic Johnson in '27, was it a good deal?

A resounding yes. If a trade directly leads to a franchise winning a championship, then it clearly accomplished the main goal. It's a win at that moment regardless of what happens for the other team.

A recent example of this was Cleveland trading the top overall pick in Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love, and then winning a title. While not the best player on that team, Love was a big contributor. Even if Wiggins would have reached his "Maple Jordan" type ceiling, Cleveland would have to feel good about that move.

What this guy said.

I also agree. I also think the Wolves chances of winning a title are probably higher than any of those picks becoming a legendary player so falling short of both outcomes feels like a positive move to me.

[Monster]

I read the article.

In some of the instances it wasn't trading away the pick it was poor talent evaluation and maybe some bad luck in terms of injury. There were teams that traded up for the guy that was supposed to the best player but they weren't.

A couple of those examples were guys picked in the 2nd round. Even back in the day that seems like a reach in terms of trading away draft picks for a player. Yes random picks even 2nd rounders can end up being highly valuable. The Wolves actually had that exact thing happen when they ended up with the 1st pick in the 2nd round which was originally Miami's pick (received that from Boston in the Ricky Davis, Mark Blount deal) and Pek was target there either for the Wolves or another team. They could have done all kinds of things with that pick especially since they also had #34 which ironically they traded to Miami for 2 future 2nd round picks and cash. If Pek would have stayed healthy for a few more years that would have been a big deal for the franchise. Pek turns 37 in January. Ultimately Pek not able to stay healthy wasn't what sunk the franchise but he was a pretty good player and was one instance the Wolves seemingly had some luck go their way when it came to the draft. It was fleeting.

[FNG]

I think most of us can agree that the picks that we will be giving up as part of the Gobert deal are most likely not going to be lottery picks. With that in mind, let's review the Wolves history of non-lottery first round draft picks:

1990: Gerald Glass
1997: Paul Grant
1998: Rasho Nesterovic
2003: Ndudi Ebi
2009: Wayne Ellington
2010: Lazar Hayward
2018: Josh Okogie

While I will admit that all 7 of these players are talented enough to beat me in a game of one-on-one, I would not lose any sleep over having to lose the rights to them in exchange for picking up an All-Star defensive stopper like Rudy Gobert.

[TAFKASP]

As a Wolves fan I'm not at all concerned about the picks we traded. We've had plenty of Kris Dunns, Culvers and Wesley Johnsons in our draft history to make me not care that we might miss on the rare superstar. Odds are very low any of those picks turn out to be a great player.

The Wolves have to have been the worst drafters in NBA history. That would be an interesting list to compile. Luckily our recent success of hitting on Ant and likely getting a starter at minimum out of Jaden has put us into a nice place to get Gobert and make us a potential contender.

That is what was funny for me when everyone seemingly was hammering the Gobert trade. Have you seen what our draft picks have gotten us in the last 20 years? lol

I think it's already been said here, but this situation is a bit different than the Wolves past. This team was very talented before the Gobert trade, certainly felt like a team on the rise. They already had two star players so you're looking to build around them and most of the time you do that through trades, not draft luck.

I understand where both sides are coming from in this debate, but personally I'm just excited to watch what should be a very competitiv
e team again!

I think most of us can agree that the picks that we will be giving up as part of the Gobert deal are most likely not going to be lottery picks. With that in mind, let's review the Wolves history of non-lottery first round draft picks:

1990: Gerald Glass
1997: Paul Grant
1998: Rasho Nesterovic
2003: Ndudi Ebi
2009: Wayne Ellington
2010: Lazar Hayward
2018: Josh Okogie

While I will admit that all 7 of these players are talented enough to beat me in a game of one-on-one, I would not lose any sleep over having to lose the rights to them in exchange for picking up an All-Star defensive stopper like Rudy Gobert.

I don't think the issue is the players the Wolves could have drafted so much as the trade flexibility they lost.