Target Trade Teams
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:18 am
The odds of the Wolves signing an elite or near-elite FA are slim to none and slim's out of town. At best, the Wolves will be able to land JJ Redick, but I'm not sure his value to the Wolves would be worth the price he'll likely command to come to the Wolves. So I would expect that signing an Amir Johnson or Thabo Sefolosha would be the best the Wolves can do through free agency.
Therefore, more significant additions than an Amir or Thabo type player will require a trade. Thibs has made it clear that he's building around KAT, Towns and Zach, so none of those three will be traded. Thibs won't trade Ricky because we have no NBA-ready PG on the roster, which means we'd have to get a better PG in return to make any such trade worthwhile and that's not realistic. Thibs knows he needs to win next season so he can't risk entering the season with Dunn as his starting PG. Thibs won't trade Gorgui because he loves him and has him on a very reasonable contract. There's no one else on this roster with any meaningful trade value. That means the only realistically tradeable asset with enough value to bring back a significant return is our first-round pick. If it's a top three, Thibs could potentially make a really big splash. If it's #6, it's still a valuable trade asset.
If Thibs wants to shop our 1st round pick, he should target teams that hit a wall and likely can't see championship contention in their future without a major move -- and more likely a move that brings in a potential young star. I see several teams in that bucket:
1. Orlando Magic -- This franchise is looking like a disaster. They looked like a team about the ascend a couple years ago, but terrible draft and trade decisions along with other factors have left them stuck in the mud and sinking. They have the 5th spot in the lottery and will likely have a pick somewhere in the 1-6 range. I would think they'd love to add our pick this summer. But what could we get in return? Players on their roster who might be of interest are Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Vucevic, and Terrence Ross. Biyombo would improve our shot-blocking, one of Thibs' goals. Evan Fournier would improve our 3-point shooting and would likely plug in as our starting SG. Vucevic would slot in instantly as our starting C next to KAT at PF. Ross would also improve our 3-point shooting off the bench as a wing. All their contracts are at least 2 years, which makes sure we don't end up with a one-and-done player in return for a valuable draft asset. And all these guys, except maybe Biyombo, have relatively reasonable contracts for what they offer. Even Biyombo's at $17 million per year isn't terrible. Would Orlando deal any of these four straight up for our pick? If we're a top 3, I think they would gladly deal any of them. If it's #6, I think they'd give us any of the above except Vucevic or Fournier. Should the Wolves do the deal? I'd deal a #6 pick only for Fournier or Vucevic, the two guys Orlando would not likely give us. If we have one of the top 3, I'd be interested in Fournier or Vucevic, but I'd want Orlando's #25 pick as well. If we have a top two pick, I think we could do better than that deal with another team since Fultz and Ball will likely be in high demand.
Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets looked last season like a team on the rise. They have a great PG and some other pieces. But this season they didn't even make the playoffs and it's hard to see a path for them to championship contention down the road without getting another potential star to go along with Kemba. And I don't see an elite free agent signing there. They have the 11th pick this year, but I have to believe they would LOVE a top 6 pick and drool at the prospect of a top 3. Kidd-Gillchrist, Jeremy Lamb, Marco Belinelli, and Cody Zeller are all interesting players who could help the Wolves in various ways. None of these guys are worth a top #6 pick straight up in my view. But Kidd-Gillchrist would help our defense and rebounding from the SF position and would be an interesting pick-up as part of a return package from the Hornets.
Knicks: Another team that has to be desperate for something exciting for the future. They will likely have the 7th pick. No doubt they'd love another high lottery pick. They have a couple interesting players who could possibly help us -- Courtney Lee and Lance Thomas. But neither is, in my view, worth our pick. Is there some sort of package we could get in return along with Lee to make a deal worthwhile for us? Not sure.
Other teams that might be good targets for interest in our pick?
Therefore, more significant additions than an Amir or Thabo type player will require a trade. Thibs has made it clear that he's building around KAT, Towns and Zach, so none of those three will be traded. Thibs won't trade Ricky because we have no NBA-ready PG on the roster, which means we'd have to get a better PG in return to make any such trade worthwhile and that's not realistic. Thibs knows he needs to win next season so he can't risk entering the season with Dunn as his starting PG. Thibs won't trade Gorgui because he loves him and has him on a very reasonable contract. There's no one else on this roster with any meaningful trade value. That means the only realistically tradeable asset with enough value to bring back a significant return is our first-round pick. If it's a top three, Thibs could potentially make a really big splash. If it's #6, it's still a valuable trade asset.
If Thibs wants to shop our 1st round pick, he should target teams that hit a wall and likely can't see championship contention in their future without a major move -- and more likely a move that brings in a potential young star. I see several teams in that bucket:
1. Orlando Magic -- This franchise is looking like a disaster. They looked like a team about the ascend a couple years ago, but terrible draft and trade decisions along with other factors have left them stuck in the mud and sinking. They have the 5th spot in the lottery and will likely have a pick somewhere in the 1-6 range. I would think they'd love to add our pick this summer. But what could we get in return? Players on their roster who might be of interest are Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Vucevic, and Terrence Ross. Biyombo would improve our shot-blocking, one of Thibs' goals. Evan Fournier would improve our 3-point shooting and would likely plug in as our starting SG. Vucevic would slot in instantly as our starting C next to KAT at PF. Ross would also improve our 3-point shooting off the bench as a wing. All their contracts are at least 2 years, which makes sure we don't end up with a one-and-done player in return for a valuable draft asset. And all these guys, except maybe Biyombo, have relatively reasonable contracts for what they offer. Even Biyombo's at $17 million per year isn't terrible. Would Orlando deal any of these four straight up for our pick? If we're a top 3, I think they would gladly deal any of them. If it's #6, I think they'd give us any of the above except Vucevic or Fournier. Should the Wolves do the deal? I'd deal a #6 pick only for Fournier or Vucevic, the two guys Orlando would not likely give us. If we have one of the top 3, I'd be interested in Fournier or Vucevic, but I'd want Orlando's #25 pick as well. If we have a top two pick, I think we could do better than that deal with another team since Fultz and Ball will likely be in high demand.
Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets looked last season like a team on the rise. They have a great PG and some other pieces. But this season they didn't even make the playoffs and it's hard to see a path for them to championship contention down the road without getting another potential star to go along with Kemba. And I don't see an elite free agent signing there. They have the 11th pick this year, but I have to believe they would LOVE a top 6 pick and drool at the prospect of a top 3. Kidd-Gillchrist, Jeremy Lamb, Marco Belinelli, and Cody Zeller are all interesting players who could help the Wolves in various ways. None of these guys are worth a top #6 pick straight up in my view. But Kidd-Gillchrist would help our defense and rebounding from the SF position and would be an interesting pick-up as part of a return package from the Hornets.
Knicks: Another team that has to be desperate for something exciting for the future. They will likely have the 7th pick. No doubt they'd love another high lottery pick. They have a couple interesting players who could possibly help us -- Courtney Lee and Lance Thomas. But neither is, in my view, worth our pick. Is there some sort of package we could get in return along with Lee to make a deal worthwhile for us? Not sure.
Other teams that might be good targets for interest in our pick?