Okafor & Towns -- By The Numbers

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

DEFENSE.

Situation:
Player - How Many Possessons / FG% / Points Per Possession / Percentile

Post Ups:
Okafor - 104 / 44.4% / 0.846 / 40
Towns - 47 / 16.0% / 0.489 / 94

Spot Up:
Okafor - 54 / 35.3% / 0.963 / 40
Towns - 34 / 33.3% / 0.912 / 54

Isolation:
Okafor - 33 / 39.3% / 0.879 / 30
Towns - 24 / 17.6% / 0.333 / 96

OFFENSE.

Situation:
Player - How Many Possessons / FG% / Points Per Possession / Percentile

Post Ups:
Okafor - 328 / 55.8% / 0.933 / 79
Towns - 154 / 51.4% / 0.922 / 76

("Towns doesn't have a post game")

Put-Backs:
Okafor - 88 / 64.7% / 1.170 / 68
Towns - 63 / 61.2% / 1.365 / 91

Cuts:
Okafor - 66 / 90.4% / 1.636 / 99
Towns - 60 / 72.5% / 1.267 / 79

ADVANCED STATISTICS.

TRB%:
Okafor - 16.6
Towns - 18.5

BLK%:
Okafor - 4.5
Towns - 11.5

AST%:
Okafor - 9.4
Towns - 11.6

TOV%:
Okafor - 15.6
Towns - 14.2

WS/40:
Okafor - .235
Towns - .311

Points Per Possession:
Okafor - 1.24
Towns - 1.22

TS%:
Okafor - .635
Towns - .627

PER:
Okafor - 30.7
Towns - 31.4

- Okafor averaged 34.9 points per 100 possession on 22.3 FGA (1.565 points/FGA).
- Towns averaged 30.6 points per 100 possessions on 19.5 FGA (1.569 points/FGA).

Watch the two players and analyze their games, of course, but the numbers tell a story as well. If what you're seeing and the numbers match-up, then it's probably a true claim.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Nice breakdown of Towns' game. I approve this message. http://www.sbnation.com/2015/5/20/8624123/karl-towns-scouting-report-nba-draft-2015

[MikkeMan]

DEFENSE.

Situation:
Player - How Many Possessons / FG% / Points Per Possession / Percentile

Post Ups:
Okafor - 104 / 44.4% / 0.846 / 40
Towns - 47 / 16.0% / 0.489 / 94

Spot Up:
Okafor - 54 / 35.3% / 0.963 / 40
Towns - 34 / 33.3% / 0.912 / 54

Isolation:
Okafor - 33 / 39.3% / 0.879 / 30
Towns - 24 / 17.6% / 0.333 / 96

OFFENSE.

Situation:
Player - How Many Possessons / FG% / Points Per Possession / Percentile

Post Ups:
Okafor - 328 / 55.8% / 0.933 / 79
Towns - 154 / 51.4% / 0.922 / 76

("Towns doesn't have a post game")

Put-Backs:
Okafor - 88 / 64.7% / 1.170 / 68
Towns - 63 / 61.2% / 1.365 / 91

Cuts:
Okafor - 66 / 90.4% / 1.636 / 99
Towns - 60 / 72.5% / 1.267 / 79

Watch the two players and analyze their games, of course, but the numbers tell a story as well. If what you're seeing and the numbers match-up, then it's probably a true claim.

Cam, this is great stuff. Thanks for posting these. Where you did find college stats by play type?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

How can Flip look at definitive data like this and still choose Okafor...he's gotta be smarter than that. Flip, please don't gift wrap for the Lakers exactly the player they need...especially when we have the same needs.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

How can Flip look at definitive data like this and still choose Okafor...he's gotta be smarter than that. Flip, please don't gift wrap for the Lakers exactly the player they need...especially when we have the same needs.

Answer: He doesn't look at data like this.

I think the boy is key. Ryan might be our only hope.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yeah, from an advanced stats perspective, it's really not a hard decision to make. The starting point should be "Towns is the better prospect" and then you go to the tape, the team mates, the system, and the background checks and the combine stuff and try to poke holes in the hypothesis. But it has to start with "Towns is better".

On KAT's post game, just go watch his highlights from the Notre Dame game. He destroyed them on the block. Granted, he doesn't have the array of moves that Okafor has and you aren't going to make Towns a clear focal point of your offense on the low block. The point is that if there is a mis-match, he has enough refinement to his post game that he can take advantage of it. The really good thing about Towns though is that you can potentially put him at places all over the floor and he can be useful because of his passing and shooting touch. That's the real value of KAT on offense. He can fit into any number of systems or schemes and add value.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

How can Flip look at definitive data like this and still choose Okafor...he's gotta be smarter than that. Flip, please don't gift wrap for the Lakers exactly the player they need...especially when we have the same needs.

I'm a Towns guy, but don't go too heavy on the data. We can project Towns' numbers over increased playing time, but we can't be assured he will be better or worse or even consistent. Numbers play a role, but limited playing time for Towns compared to Okafor makes it harder to go by the numbers. Why I go Okafor over Towns is because of defense, rebounding, and energy. The guy brings it and helps us in areas we sorely lack. He has all the tools in the tool box and should develop into a great offensive weapon. He could be a bigger KG.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Q, I have a difficult time believing that Flip doesn't spend at least as much time as we do pouring over data. If he isn't, he has no business being either an NBA coach or PBO. I gotta believe Ryan is putting things in front of him constantly. What he does with it may be an entirely different matter.

Everyone here is correct that projecting data to a 35 minute figure is not necessarily reliable, but we can argue about whether a 20-minute guy's projections will get better or worse on a per-minute basis. I would argue that KAT's numbers would actually go up on a per-minute basis in a 35-minute projection We have all heard (and seen examples) of players saying they need more minutes to maximize their performance, and I think it's a valid concept. When you are only playing half a game, it can be difficult to find a proper flow. If you buy into this concept, there is even a bigger delta between KAT's and Okafor's per-minute data.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Not all of those numbers are projections, but actual on-court production in where he's just simply better than Okafor in those areas. There's more than enough there to strongly suggest that Towns is the better player, which has been my stance from the beginning. I didn't even include P&R defense or transition scoring, two areas where Towns has a very large advantage over Okafor.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

I guess I'm just old school and go by the eye test. To me Towns fits the mold for us. An athletic two way player. He would fit great with LaVine and Wiggins. We don't need pure scorers.

I think if Towns can hit his ceiling he will be like Patrick Ewing. Ewing had that mid-range game. He moved well and was a great defender and rebounder. To me that's best case scenario. I struggle to find a good comp to Okafor. I think offensively Duncan is the perfect best case comp, but Duncan is a great defender. I don't like the Big Al comp.