Derrick Williams - Grantland - The Most Known Unknowns

[bleedspeed]

There are higher-profile sources of intrigue -- DeMarcus Cousins, for one -- but I'm not sure any player is generating the same churn of curiosity, confusion, and opportunism around the league. As the no. 2 pick in the 2011 draft, Williams would earn a monster $6.3 million under the terms of his fourth-year option -- a $1.3 million raise over his salary for the coming season, and potentially enough to make the difference between the Wolves having easy access to the full midlevel exception or butting past the luxury tax.

And nobody, not even the Wolves, has any clue what position Williams should play. David Kahn, the deposed Minnesota GM, drafted Williams in hopes he could transition to small forward next to Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic. But the lockout robbed Williams of any training camp or real practice time before his rookie year, and Love's injury issues last season forced the Wolves to play Williams almost exclusively at power forward.

"One of the two toughest transitions for anyone to make is going from power forward in college to small forward in the NBA," says Flip Saunders, Minnesota's president of basketball operations. "Derrick's only 21. But he has to carve out an identity for himself. That's the most important thing for him."

Williams has shown some potential as a small-ball power forward -- a spot-up shooter who could stretch the floor around pick-and-rolls for Love and Pekovic. Williams has been a disappointing shooter so far in the pros, but he hit an almost-respectable 33 percent from deep last season, he has a nice stroke, and guys who shot as well as he did from deep in college have almost universally settled in as above-average 3-point shooters in the NBA.

Saunders says Williams could turn into something like a more athletic Al Harrington, spotting up on the weak side of pick-and-rolls.

[bleedspeed]

Having Williams do this at power forward drags an opposing big man out of the lane and presents Williams with an easier decision tree if he catches the ball: shoot, pass, or drive. Williams has struggled badly to make choices in even more crowded situations closer to the rim. He's a bit of a ball-stopper, out of greed and decision paralysis -- both no-nos in Rick Adelman's corner offense. Way too many Minnesota possessions ended with Williams catching the ball after one action, holding it 20 feet from the hoop with a dozen or more ticks left on the shot clock, and then engaging in some very sad series of jab steps and crossover dribbles before launching a horrific step-back jumper. Watching Adelman's reactions to these shots became the game-within-a-game for League Pass addicts and/or folks who enjoy coaches acting out their misery in hilariously grandiose pouty gestures.

"He has to make better decisions," Saunders says. "And he has to make quicker decisions."

Williams has struggled to create anything in Adelman's system. He'll occasionally blow by overmatched power forwards on dribble drives and break out a crafty finish,3 but it's unclear if he can do that against small forwards, and he's flirting with very bad territory as a non-passer. He dished only 84 assists combined in two seasons, and last season, Williams became only the 12th player in the 3-point era to assist on fewer than 5 percent of his team's buckets while using up at least 23 percent of Minnesota's possessions with a shot, turnover, or drawn foul. Most players in this group are low-post finishers; Eddy Curry and Amar'e Stoudemire alone account for seven of the 19 player seasons on the list.

[bleedspeed]

Williams is not a low-post finisher, and we've seen almost zero evidence he can work as an effective outside-in creator. There's nothing wrong with being a stretch power forward off the bench; Harrington became a very effective one in Denver once he learned to either shoot open 3s or drive hard to the rim -- and to make the choice right away, decisively.

The downside of playing Williams at power forward: He's too small, at 6-foot-8 with a 7-1 wingspan, to defend the rim. Williams isn't really a bad defender; he understands team schemes and help responsibilities, and he's shown good balance in being able to rush out a shooter, stop on a dime if that shooter pump-fakes, and stay shoulder-to-shoulder with that shooter on a drive to the rim.4 But he has no shot in the post against the league's back-to-the-basket behemoths, and he provides zero deterrent as a help defender at the basket.

These problems aren't as serious if Williams settles into a role as a heavy-minutes backup power forward, spotting up and defending less threatening backups. But that's not the ideal outcome for a no. 2 pick, and it might not be worth $6.3 million to Minnesota. Saunders wouldn't comment on Minnesota's plans for Williams's fourth year, but he knows teams are eyeing Williams as a potential buy-low trade candidate.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good article. It reinforces the point that Williams' issue with playing SF isn't as much defense as it is offense. It would be incredibly rare for someone as poor of a passer as Williams to thrive as a full-time SF in the NBA. I think along with Al Harrington, Antawn Jameson would be another guy I would throw out there as the type of player Williams could become.

He will NEVER be an elite rebounder, shot blocker, ball hawk or playmaker. He wasn't in college and hasn't shown any ability to do such in the NBA. So that pretty much leaves his ability to produce efficient offense and solid defense as his path to being more than just an average player off the bench. He became mildly more efficient last season, especially the last stretch of games, but was still decidedly below average for the season. If he can start knocking down the 3 more consistently and improve his finishing a bit more, he could eventually carve out a nice role as a scorer off the bench. We could definitely use that since it would allow guys like Love and Pek to get their rest.

[foye2smith [enjin:6593248]]

Williams' 1.3 million dollar raise would be less of an issue of we didn't overpay Brewer and Budinger by at least 2x that amount.

[Leado01]

I think that's an honest assessment of Williams' game. I will point out once again that Garnett had some similar struggles in his first few seasons - specifically that ridiculous desire to "wind up" his move. Let's hope they put him in the 3X3 10 foot box over the offseason so he could learn to catch and release at his high point.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The only part I don't get is the article basically says he needs to either shoot the 3 or drive to the basket combined with nothing as to how effective he would be defending 3's. Isn't that first part saying he should be a 3 and D player who can get to the basket some times? Wouldn't that type of role fit at the 3? I don't understand how it is advantageous to be able to pull a 4 to the 3 points line, but at the same time make it sound like he wouldn't do the same with 3's. I guess I'm just confused as to why the benefits mentioned in the article can't translate to the 3 offensively minus the lack of passing. I would bet D Will could be a respectable 3 point shooter if he sat in the corners and got easy looks which he isn't asked to do at the 4 because he is setting picks and rolling to longer 3 point areas. I think the only thing that should prevent D Will from playing the 3 is whether or not his defense can handle that position and most of the league is not particularly dynamic there anymore because the best players are moving to the 4 which Love unfortunately has to defend. At this point, I think you have to try him at the 3 because there is no future in the perfect world for him to be a 4 because we have Love. Either play him or trade him.

[Porckchop]

Not overpaying one play just to overpay another doesnt get you anywhere.

[worldK]

kahn, i think the article is saying that he could be effective in using his quickness against other 4's to make that decisive 3pt shot or drive hard decision. Williams will have a quickness advantage over 4's in the league but is he quicker than the 3's in the league? Can he drive past them? That has not been proven. He spend so little time at the 3 in his 2 seasons that its still unknown whether he can play the 3. His poor and non existing passing and playmaking skills certainly doesn't work in his favor.

I do agree that he needs to be given a shot at playing the position and its the best case scenario for the team if he eventually proves he could play the 3. But we do have depth at the wing position right now so he would have to outplay at least 4 other players to get some time at the wing position.

[MinnesotaJock [enjin:6589402]]

I just don't think he has a future with us unfortunately. Not because I don't think he will improve, but because we just won't have the money. When it comes time to pay Rubio, where is the money for Williams? If he plays well and deserves a raise, we won't have the money. If he doesn't play well, we already have people signed at his positions so no love lost. I guess it's a pick your poison but in reality, any poison ends up in him leaving.