3-point shooting potential

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Could our Achilles heel last year become this year's strength?

I'm looking forward to the final pre-season game tonight to see if they can continue their performance beyond the arc. 15-29 last night, and 10-25 the previous game. I like it that we are showing both volume and success in our three point game. Is it a mirage, or might we become a solid long-range team this year?

I think our starting lineup is almost ideally set up for 3-point success. A low post center that attracts attention away from the arc, a point guard whose first priority is finding the open man, and two elite sharpshooters...one who won the 3-point contest 2 years ago and has plodding PFs chasing him, and another who moves relentlessly without the ball and hits at a consistent 40% rate. If Brewer can replicate his 2013 40% from the left corner, it only makes our starters more prolific.

Our second team doesn't have as much 3-point promise, but Barea, Williams, Budinger, Shved and Muhammad all have potential to get hot from 3-point land.

I think most of us are comfortable that the Wolves are going to rebound well and get to the line more frequently than their opponents. If they can also become a top 10 3-point team, not a stretch in my assessment, they are poised to be a 50 win team...even with their defensive shortcomings.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

There is no question we will be a better 3-point shooting team since we were historically bad last year. We literally have no where to go but up. The question is how good.

- We know that Martin and Love will both hit for volume and accuracy. Check.

- We know that Barea is a good, but not great, 3-point shooter. He has a career average of 36% and last year was his worst year since he was a rookie at 35%. That's probably his floor this year, and based on his pre-season, I suspect he will shoot at or above his career average this year. Check.

So you can pretty much count on Martin, Love, and Barea having good to great numbers from beyond the arc. Simply adding Love and Martin into the mix makes us vastly better than last year. From here though, things get more uncertain.....

- Brewer. Simply put, the man should not be shooting 3-pointers unless the shot clock is winding down and the only other option is a violation. I don't understand how a career 29% 3-point shooter continues to jack up shots. He will hurt our chances of improving as much as we could from beyond the arc because, as he's proven in pre-season, he will absolutely pull the trigger if given the chance.

- Shved - He's had a very nice pre-season from beyond the arc. Since he's only going into his second year, I'm willing to declare him a wildcard. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

- Williams - He's still a bit of a wildcard too. His 3-pt shooting did improve last year compared to his rookie year, but was still only 33%. I don't see him taking a high volume of 3's, so I'm not sure if his % will make a huge difference either way.

- Budinger - Believe it or not, Budinger is not a shoe-in good 3-point shooter. Yes, his career average is decent, but unlike Barea, he's had some pretty wild variations from year to year: 37%, 32%, 40%, 32%. That's his first four years. And he's coming off of yet another knee "prodedure". I'm not optimistic.

- Rubio - I'm reasonably confident that he can hit 35% of his 3's this year and that will certainly help. However, he won't do it in high volume. Overall between him and JJ, I think our two PGs will do a decent job spacing the floor this year. See my next post for why I think Rubio will shoot it well this year.

- Shabazz - Won't play enough to make much of a difference.


I think our ability to go from an average 3-point shooting team (which is still much better than last year!) to Top 10 relies mostly on limiting Brewer's attempts, seeing solid improvement from Shved, and most importantly, getting the 2011/12 version of Budinger.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

More info on Rubio and 3-point shooting.....

First, he shot 34% his rookie year. Not bad.

Here are his splits since his injury. We pick things up when he first came back last December:

December - 0%
January - 10%
February - 25%
March - 32.4%
April - 40%
Eurobasket - 44%
Pre-Season (including tonight's game) - 55%

Not a bad trend, eh?

Given the fact he shot 34% as a rookie and has been trending up every month since he came back from injury, I have to believe a number in the 35-38% range is within reach for him. We'll have to see how his legs and form hold up, but the trend line is definitely encouraging.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I think Shved can be a good 3 point shooter if he just sticks to hitting 3's on the catch and shoot when he takes his time. Otherwise off the dribble and rushing the shot show how inconsistent his mechanics are. When he has a solid rhythm, his body is square and in control and he can hit, but he takes too many rushed or off the dribble 3's that drive his percentage down. Bud doesn't take a bunch of off the dribble 3's so why can't Shved do the same and stick to the high percentage looks. Shved's game is really just control away from being very solid off the bench. I don't get why it hasn't been beaten into his head yet that his jumping with no where to go with the ball and poor shot selection are just making him a bad player. The defensive effort is there. He just needs to stay in control on the offensive end and he could be a very valuable bench player. If he just kept his dribble more often, he would look a lot better. I know it is tough to change the way a player plays the game mentally, but adding some control to his game will make Shved miles better.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Don't disagree with your assessment on Shved, Khans. One thing that has been refreshing is seeing him play a less prominent role this pre-season. If we can keep Barea, Rubio, and Martin healthy, he doesn't have to try to do too much and can hopefully let the game come to him a bit more. We'll see.

[Lipoli390]

Q -- Thanks for posting Ricky's three-point numbers. The trend is very encouraging. I posted last season that I thought Ricky would follow in Jason Kidd's footsteps and develop i to a good three point shorter. If he does and stays healthy, he'll have a break-out allstar caliber season.

Kahns - Excellent analysis of Shved. I agree completely. For Shved, it's all about consistent mechanics and not forcing things. If he plays less with less pressure and slows down, things may fall into place for him. Adelman referred to Derrick as the X factor a few weeks ago. I'm beginning to think that Shved is the real X factor.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thanks for the optimistic Rubio stats, q. I have to admit I had no idea about those trends. His form is so unusual on his outside shot that I tend to disregard him.

I also didn't know that Shved had been effective on threes this preseason. His game can be so maddening to watch that I was missing the fact that he is 10 for 20 on threes.

I like your analysis that we have two sure things in Martin and Love, and maybe three with Barea, and several wild card options who can be effective long range on a given night. I think this is where Adelman and his staff come in. This team is talented and deep enough that Rick needs to make it perfectly clear to everyone what their roles are, and let it be known that anyone that tries to play outside of their competency will be benched. We were so talent-deficient last year that a statement like that would have been an idle threat. But not this year.

Top ten in the league on threes is generally around 36%. I think the Wolves should have a goal to be well over that this year.