Bazz!

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Can we just take a minute in the middle of a train wreck of a season to acknowledge a bright spot--Shabazz Muhammad! Who would've expected this guy would basically be our consensus best player at this point in the year?! Not me, that's for sure.

I remember the first month when he surprised everybody by scoring about 10 points per game in just 15 minutes per game, and that he was doing it shooting 50% from the floor. We all wanted to see him get more minutes, but there were legitimate worries. Could he maintain his efficiency? Could he hit the three?

Then in December he got about double the minutes, kept his efficiency for the most part, and get this, now he's hitting threes too! In the last 7 games he's taking almost 3 threes a game and hitting them at almost 60%! That's not a huge sample size and obviously not a sustainable percentage, but it suggests he could potentially be one of those 40% guys who can help us stretch the floor, which is crucial because most of his offense otherwise comes in transition and off offensive rebounds. It gives him a key role in the half court offense.

Holy cow!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thanks for the positive message, drew...yep, Bazz is the story! So much fun to watch him leave it all on the court every night. Even the unabashed Bazz guys like me didn't expect a breakout season like this, even when he was scoring .5 points per minute last year to lead all rookies. He seemed too dependent last year on his one move, the little lefty hook. But then he goes out and scores 30 against the Jazz without ever going to that move! And even though he is still not an average ballhandler, there's no question that his willingness to pass has increased, and accordingly so has his assist totals. Like almost every other T-Wolf, his defense needs to get better. But with his burning desire to improve, I expect to see continued improvement here too.

The early season has clearly been all about Bazz!

[bleedspeed]

He has been a beast. I think he is the second coming of Kevin Love in ways. He had a coach that didn't let him play when he should he could contribute his rookie year. He transformed his body to take it to the next level. He is adding things to his game. I think we are just seeing the start of what he can be as a player. I think the big difference in him vs KLove is that Flip drafted him and believes in him. He has supported him when others have not. It will be interesting to see what he looks like in 3 years.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I'd be hesitant to call him the second coming of Kevin Love. Love ended up being our second-best player in team history, an elite rebounder who added a very good three point shot, and a guy who people actually mentioned in MVP races a couple years despite how bad we were as a team. Also, Bazz doesn't seem like quite as big a jerk yet.

But check this.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/sf

I was curious about how Bazz would rank against similar players in PER, where he's listed as a SF. Here would be the league rankings in PER at that position.

1. KD
2. LeBron
3. Melo
4. BAZZ!!!

That's crazy. We've got the 4th highest ranked SF in terms of PER! If he were listed as a SG, which is where he's technically starting, he'd basically be in a three way tie for 4th place behind Harden, Wade, and Jimmy Butler. (For what it's worth, Kevin Martin is one of the SGs he'd be tied with for 4th.)

Also for what it's worth, among SFs, Thaddeus Young is ranked 24th, Robbie Hummel is 44th, and Wiggins is ranked 49th.

I'm guessing those of you who have been criticizing Young, dismissing Martin, or praising Wiggins would be quick to point out the shortcomings of PER. Fair enough. It is not perfect.

But PER is a pretty good overall assessment of a player's contributions (on both sides of the ball) during their time on the court. Look at the rankings, and generally you'd always like to have the guys toward the top of the PER rankings on your team and you'd rather not have the guys towards the bottom.

And PER offers us all a couple important reminders, including that 1) Wiggins needs to work on his efficiency, 2) Young is not quite as bad as we might think (though he's still a little below average), 3) while Martin might not have a future with this team, he is still one of our best players, and most importantly here, 4) Shabazz Muhammad is looking like a promising young player! Of course, if he gets bumped up to 35 minutes a game, it will not be easy for him to keep his PER that high. He just doesn't contribute in all of the areas that some of those other guys at the top do. But it's still a really good sign. Let's hope he keeps it up!

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

PER doesn't measure defense well at all. It is largely an offensive metric. PER says next to nothing about a player's defensive impact on a game. Bazz has a high PER because he rebounds a lot for a wing, doesn't turn the ball over and is scoring efficiently. That is why Love was always near the top in the league. He was top 5 in scoring and rebounding which are two significant factors in the metric. Bazz is not a good defender yet. He loses his man often and gets lost often as well. He can hold his own in the post, but not many wings post up so it doesn't make a huge impact on the game. He's played well, but being a high PER player doesn't make you a good player on both ends of the court.

[bleedspeed]

I am saying he has the drive to improve and expand his game like Love did. That is really an important trait. Love was very limited physically, but made the most of it. Shabazz has his limitations, but he is going to get everything he has out of himself.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

PER doesn't measure defense well at all. It is largely an offensive metric. PER says next to nothing about a player's defensive impact on a game. Bazz has a high PER because he rebounds a lot for a wing, doesn't turn the ball over and is scoring efficiently. That is why Love was always near the top in the league. He was top 5 in scoring and rebounding which are two significant factors in the metric. Bazz is not a good defender yet. He loses his man often and gets lost often as well. He can hold his own in the post, but not many wings post up so it doesn't make a huge impact on the game. He's played well, but being a high PER player doesn't make you a good player on both ends of the court.

Fair enough. PER is more of an offensive measure because there are more stats on that side of the ball. But for what it's worth, PER does include steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds, and it negatively counts personal fouls, all of which offer some indication of a player's defense. Bazz isn't blowing anybody away with his defense, but statistically and by the eye test, it's not bad enough to overshadow his offensive strengths.

After the season is over, it will be interesting to see some adjusted plus-minus scores for the team to try and isolate his impact. I suspect that will give us a better picture of the balance of his impact on both sides of the ball. In the meantime, PER is pretty useful, and it certainly suggests Bazz is playing very well right now.

Khans, out of curiosity, who would you say is toward the top of the PER rankings who is not very good because their defense is really bad (other guys like Bazz in your view), and who would you say is at the bottom of the PER rankings who is actually really good because their defense is really good? I'm not asking to disagree with your valid point, but just because I think it's interesting to think about those players.

[Carlos Danger]

PER doesn't measure defense well at all. It is largely an offensive metric. PER says next to nothing about a player's defensive impact on a game. Bazz has a high PER because he rebounds a lot for a wing, doesn't turn the ball over and is scoring efficiently. That is why Love was always near the top in the league. He was top 5 in scoring and rebounding which are two significant factors in the metric. Bazz is not a good defender yet. He loses his man often and gets lost often as well. He can hold his own in the post, but not many wings post up so it doesn't make a huge impact on the game. He's played well, but being a high PER player doesn't make you a good player on both ends of the court.

I'm probably with Kahn on this one. I like PER and use it often. I think it works more often than not when trying to determine how well a player is performing. But I also know (like any stat) it's not 100% reliable all the time/all situations. One example from Wolves past was Anthony Randolph. AR had an 18 PER during his time with us and a 16.5 career PER. Still, he never got much playing time and he's out of the league right now at age 25. Maybe there's more to the story that I don't know. But based on PER, I would think that guy would have a job and plenty of minutes!

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Harden, Curry, Lillard, Dirk, Melo, Martin, Meeks, Bazz and Lou Williams all have PER's above 20 and are in the top 30 overall and all are average, below average or revolving doors defensively. Wall is 31st in PER and he has been a top 10 player this year with how well he has played on both sides of the court. Klay Thompson is 47th in PER and he is right up there with Harden for the best overall SG in the league and he is a better defender than Harden. Tony Parker is 84th in PER (I know he is not much of a defender, but he is still a good player). Ibaka is 103 with 2.3 blocks per game. Tony Allen is 184th and he is probably the best wing defender in the league. My biggest problem with the stat is when guys like Brandon Wright are 8th in the league or Speights averaging 17 MPG's being 14th. Tyler Zeller is 25, Cole Aldrich is 41 which is ahead of a lot of much better players. Mason Plumlee is tied with Klay at 47. Shved is higher than Brandon Knight and Monta Ellis. Boozer is 3 spots better than Tony Paker. In comparison to Value added on ESPN which uses PER and other numbers, Wright drops down to 45, Wall moves up to 17, Zeller and Speights drop down to 64 and 65. Aldrich falls to 124 and Shved to 141.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Bazz's emergence has certainly been one of the few bright spots. His greatest strength is the ability to put up points and doing so fairly efficiently and decisively. Timely basket cuts, O-boards, running the break, and catch-and-shoot jumpers are quick ways to get a shot up in a low-risk fashion. Guys who need to put the ball on the floor to size up the defense risk stemming the flow of the offense and turning the ball over. That's not a problem for Bazz.

I want to see him over a longer sample size as a starter to see how he handles being defended by starting wings and playing more minutes. Until the game against Utah, he struggled a bit since he was put into the starting lineup. Being able to knock down 3-pointers certainly is one way to diversify his offense so it's not always about simply outworking his defender. That's tough to do 30+ minutes game in and game out.