Early Season evaluation: Shabazz Muhammad

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

We're now over 20 games into the season, which means it's fair to start assessing our players. Let's do Shabazz next.

Overview - Shabazz was not the guy Flip planned on taking when the 2013 draft proceedings began. But through a series of decisions made by the teams ahead of us, Flip ultimately had to go to Plan C (or D, or F, or....), which involved trading down and ultimately grabbing Shabazz at #14. It was a controversial pick and largely panned by many fans and followers, including your's truly. The reason was first and foremost that Muhammad somewhat underwhelmed at UCLA. He had poor handles, a mediocre first step, and seemed unable to go right. And while he scored at a decent clip, he averaged less than 1 assist per game and wasn't very efficient. In addition, it turned out he was a year older than previously reported, which is fairly meaningful in the world of player development and potential. The bottom line is that there were, and still are to a degree, lots of Shabazz skeptics.

Offense - I've never seen a guy with so many limitations skill-wise be able to put up points at such a high rate (22 points per 36 minutes so far this season). It turns out his greatest skill is desire. In the same way Dennis Rodman would go to hell and back to get a rebound, Shabazz does the same thing to get a bucket or draw a foul. As a result, if there is a fast break, Shabazz will run harder than anyone else to fill the lane. If there is a missed shot by a team mate, he will crash the glass harder than anyone else to get that rebound. If there is a loose ball around the bucket, he will chase after it with more ferocity than anyone else. If there is a an open lane for cutting to the hoop, he will quickly fill it. And if he gets the ball anywhere near the rim, he looks to dunk it. This is how he gets the majority of his points - relentless pursuit of shots at the rim.

And while Bazz gets a ton of his points through pure heart, hustle, and broken plays, he also has a very reliable post up game, with a patented lefty push shot as his bread and butter. It's not an easy shot to make, especially turning baseline, but he does it with enough consistency that it has become a good weapon. We've seen the beginnings of a counter move turning the opposite direction, but he still isn't completely comfortable doing it yet. That should come with time and make him even more dangerous.

Bazz's outside shooting comes purely through catch and shoot opportunities. He simply doesn't even attempt pull-up jumpers off the dribble. I never saw him do it at UCLA and I have never seen him do it in Minnesota. This somewhat handicaps Bazz as an end-of-game shotmaker, as the ability to put the ball on the floor and pull up on a dime for a jumper is sort of the hallmark of many clutch scorers. His catch-and-shoot outside shot seems OK, but frankly, he is so relentless at cutting and posting into the paint that he just doesn't take many shots outside. Ultimately, he needs to become a reliable 3-point shooter to become a truly great scorer.

One of the problems when Bazz is in the game is floor spacing. Since he loves to post up and cut into the paint, it requires either the PF or C to step outside and free up enough room for him to operate. And sometimes he doesn't recognize when the paint is already occupied, yet he goes there anyway and clogs it up further.

Where Bazz gets panned the most offensively is his passing. He's become slightly better since his UCLA days and rookie season. But let's face it, the guy looks to score first and foremost. And when he does make a pass, it's almost always just a basic kick out or swing pass. He rarely finds cutters and I don't think I've ever seen Adelman or Flip run a pick and roll with him as a ball handler. Again, this is a limitation that prevents him from more positively impacting the overall team offense while he's on the floor. In other words, if he isn't scoring, he's really not doing anything to help anyone else score.

One benefit of Bazz's lack of dribbling and passing is that he doesn't turn the ball over (1.3 TOs per 36 minutes). His proclivity to just get himself in position by moving without the ball and then quickly getting the shot up leaves little opportunity for him to get called for traveling, charges, double-dribbles, carries, or errant passes. The result is that he is one of the more efficient offensive players on the Wolves on a per possession basis.

Defense - Bazz is not a good defender. I would say he was terrible last season and he's just bad this season, so I guess you could say there has been some improvement. He does put in a decent effort and gets into a very good stance. He's also not half-bad at fighting through ball screens. But the problem is that he has poor lateral foot speed, so whenever he's on a nimbler perimeter player, he has a tough time keeping him in front of him.

Also, as a team defender Bazz struggles. His rotations can be late and his overall awareness of what's going on around him seems to be poor.

It would also be nice if Bazz pursued defensive rebounds as hard as he pursues offensive rebounds. He gets as many D-boards as the far weaker Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins do (3.3 per 36 minutes). Given his size and strength, he should be doing a LOT better on the defensive glass.

Summary - Bazz is a very unique player, with very distinct strengths and limitations. Overall, I think he helps more than he hurts, but not by much. I think 6th man scorer is the absolutely perfect role for him for now. If he eventually develops a better all-around game, I could definitely see him being a good starting SF in this league.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Again, great overview.

Bazz may not be the best defensive rebounder because he's usually trying to leak out for the break. It's one of the things that makes him so good is that he's always trying to run right to the front of the rim, which is awesome offensively, but that's one of the things that makes him a weak defensive rebounder I think.

He's such a weird player. I love how passionate he is about getting points out of every opportunity, and the fact that we don't run a lot of plays for him is sort of what's preventing me from disliking him for being selfish. He seems to be good at playing off others and just getting to the right place at the right time (and I do love his hustle for loose balls), but I wouldn't want to run the offense through him because I do think it would start to shut other guys down.

My feeling on him is that I'd like to play him lots of minutes, but make sure that he's not necessarily the 1st or 2nd offensive option on the floor in terms of running plays for guys, even though he'll probably get the 2nd or 1st most points in his time on the floor. Because if he is the primary guy, it could hurt other guys offensively, but getting him more intentional touches in pick and roll or spot up opportunities wouldn't play to his strengths and would probably hurt his efficiency while he can get those points off the ball just as well.

Put it this way, Bazz is at his best when he's the wolf lurking in the woods. Running the floor without the ball, crashing the offensive glass, cutting to the basket, coming out of nowhere to make something out of nothing. In a way, keeping the ball out of his hands earlier in the shot clock helps us keep him hidden even while our guys should always keep an eye out for him cutting to the basket or when a play has broken down or when chaos reigns during a loose ball situation. He's Littlefinger, the master of flying under the radar and then making the most out of chaos.

He probably wouldn't want to hear anybody say he shouldn't be having offensive plays run for him too often, but the guy should play more minutes for sure and I think a lot of us really love the effort he brings and the work he does in the role he has now. The Rodman comparison is a good one. He's our offensive Dennis Rodman. It's really crucial what he brings to the table, and I hope he recognizes how much he is appreciated for that and that he also recognizes that he isn't ideal as an intentional 1st offensive option.

[Carlos Danger]

Nice write up Q. I'll be the first to admit that I didn't have high expectations for Muhammad. My first impressions was that we drafted him because the guy we reallly wanted was gone. It seemed like Flip just tried to get value by trading down to spread his risk over a couple picks (Bazz & Dieng) hoping one would stick as a rotational guy. Then Adelman didn't play him at all - which wasn't exactly a vote of confidence. But, I give Bazz credit for keeping his head up and now he's getting an opportunity. Surprisingly...if Bazz can keep doing what he's doing - 2013 might be the Wolves best draft in a long, long time. From a "win shares" measurement perspective (BBreference), Dieng is #3 and Bazz is #17 and both seem to be hitting their stride this year with exapanded roles.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Carlos, Not sure what list on BBreference your #3 and #17 rankings for Dieng and Bazz is coming from. Regardless, both are playing solid ball for the Wolves. Unfortunately, they are two of our only bright spots - and they aren't even that great - in what has been an abysmal season thus far.

[Carlos Danger]

Carlos, Not sure what list on BBreference your #3 and #17 rankings for Dieng and Bazz is coming from. Regardless, both are playing solid ball for the Wolves. Unfortunately, they are two of our only bright spots - and they aren't even that great - in what has been an abysmal season thus far.

Q - I just go to the draft history in Basketball reference and sort the year by "Win Shares". It's not perfect, but it's one way to measure production of picks. For 2013 draft, Dieng currently ranks #3 and Bazz is tied for #17 in Win Shares.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Carlos, Not sure what list on BBreference your #3 and #17 rankings for Dieng and Bazz is coming from. Regardless, both are playing solid ball for the Wolves. Unfortunately, they are two of our only bright spots - and they aren't even that great - in what has been an abysmal season thus far.

Q - I just go to the draft history in Basketball reference and sort the year by "Win Shares". It's not perfect, but it's one way to measure production of picks. For 2013 draft, Dieng currently ranks #3 and Bazz is tied for #17 in Win Shares.

Oh, gotcha. I didn't know the list was for the 2013 draft specifically. Yeah, Flip's draft is turning out to be a solid one.

In hindsight (and I really want to emphasize that word here), after we traded away our pick for #14 and #21, I probably would have drafted Giannis (who ended up going right after Shabazz) and Gobert (who went a few picks after Dieng). I think both have better long term upside than Shabazz and Dieng. Again, I'm not knocking Flip because the fact we got two decent rotation players in a single draft is a rarity in Timberwolves history.

[WildWolf2813]

Personally, Bazz is the one guy I feel who is actually learning something throughout all of this losing. He's one guy that isn't dependent on Rubio to perform whereas the rest of the team finds it hard to function without Ricky.

I feel he's doing as good of a job as he can do in spite of the coaching, which I feel still isn't doing him any favors. All things considered, it really sucks that Adelman didn't care for him because we could have been building off of these things and he could be better with more reps under his belt. He didn't get that, and now it's as if this is his rookie year.

[worldK]

Game of thrones reference from sameoldrew. Bazz do thrive in chaos basketball. If he is going to be littlefinger he needs to improve his bball iq though. He can be disruptive even to his own team mates at times and he is not one you want to lead a fast break.

What i love about him is he just wants to dunk on you rvery chance he gets. He is relentless and fearless evrytime he goes up. He is my favorite dunker in the league. His throwdowns are always powerful and impactfull.