Ricky Rubio Contract Negotiations

[Lipoli390]

We are all focused primarily on what's going to happen with Kevin Love. And I assume that is currentlhy Flip's primary focus. But the next major focus for Flip will be contract negotiations with Ricky's agent. As we all know, Ricky is in the final option year of his rookie contract, which both sides have until Oct. 31 of this year to extend it. If not, then the Wolves can extend the qualifying offer to Ricky after this season, making him a restricted free agent next summer. Then the Wolves will be positioned to match any offer.

There is certainly a decent argument for the Wolves to wait until next summer and test Ricky's market value via restricted free agency. But that approach is risky. It's risky because it puts the Wolves at the mercy of the contracts other teams offer Ricky, including poison pill provisions. In other words, it takes control away from the Wolves. There's also the risk of alienating Ricky and fostering even more uncertainty at a time when this organization needs to create some certainty and avoid the sort of bone-headed moves we saw in the Kahn era. Of course, waiting is also risky for Ricky because it exposes him to the risk of losing his market value through another major injury this upcoming season.

So where am I going with this? My main point is that both sides, if thinking rationally, have a strong incentive to agree on an extension by the Oct. 31 deadline. Acheiving that end will require compromise by both sides. Ricky's agent can't expect a FULL 5-year max deal. If he does, the Wolves might as well wait for restricted free agency next summer. But the Wolves brass and owner can't expect to end up with nothing more than a Stephen Curry contract and they will have to poney up more than the valuation they calculate in the private seclusion of their Target Center offices.

Here are three possible scenarios:

1. In my view, a fair deal would be the 4-year $48 million deal that Toronto just gave Lowry. But I suspect that Ricky's agent won't accept that deal. Bledsoe's agent has already turned down that amount from the Suns. I have no doubt that some team will offer significantly more than this amount next summer if Ricky becomes a restricted free agent. And if Ricky significantly improves his shooting, as I think he will, then he'll get substantially higher offers next summer. On the other hand, if Ricky likes it here and he can lock in a guaranteed $48 million for himself, then perhaps he'd tell his agent to accept it.

2. Another possibility would be the 5-year deal, but without annual increases so that the deal would start and end at the current player max of $14.7 million (maybe round up to $15 million per year). That would be a reasonable deal given the fact that the individual player max is likely to increase substantially after next season when the new TV contract bumps the salary cap up from $63 million to over $80 million. If that happens, as expected, $15 million per year will look cheap. The problem with a 5-year deal is that it would take the 5-year rookie extension away from the Wolves as a potential contract offer to Wiggins or LaVine down the road if one or the other turns out to be a star. So I'd hate to use the 5-year deal on Ricky if that can be avoided.

3. Another possibility would be a 4-year max deal (with annual increases), but with a 3rd year opt out like the contract we gave Love. With Love gone and the cap going up, this would not create any risk of putting the Wolves over the luxury tax threshold. The risk to the Wolves, of course, is apparent in what we are now experiencing with Kevin Love. In fact, the 3-year opt out would be available to Ricky's agent at the very time the cap is expected to skyrocket under the new TV deal.

Obviously, there are any number of places to land in between the three scenarios I've suggested above. If a deal gets done, its total value will be somewhere between $48 million and $80 million. I'll take $60 million over 4 years without an opt-out -- same total value as Pek's contract. But let's just hope the two sides get something done in the next few months. Then let's enjoy watching Ricky play with Wiggins, LaVine, Thad Young and Glen Robinson as a talented young Wolves team begins to take shape under Flip.

[TheGrey08]

The Wolves are likely to start around 10 mill per while Ricky's agent at the max around 15 mill. Hopefully they can hammer something out smack in the middle. 4 yr 50 mill. I'd be more than happy with that.

[worldK]

5 year 76m deal. The deal will start out at the max of 15m. Its even for the next four years and increased to 16m in the fifth year. The 1m increase in the last year is there as a goodwill to eliminate any thought of an opt out clause after 4.

I think that would be a reasonable deal. Make rubio the designated player without going full max.

With the cap possibly balooning to 80m as lip mentioned. 15m a year wont be a big deal in a few years. I think we have to start out at max money for rubio. If parsons and hayward gets max this off season, no reason for rubio's side not to demand one. Rubio reportedly likes it here. With love likely gone in less than 4 weeks, Im ready to make this rubio's team and let him be the leader.

[Monster]

Lip you outlined everything pretty well. Here are a couple thoughts.

I believe in Rubio but I think he needs to prove something to me to give him the max.

What is Rubio worth? He is better now than the 3 guys that got 7-8 million per in Knight, Jenning and Teague were. Last year. So I think his market value is probably somewhere. Around the 9-10 million range. I get why his agents (Bledsoe should be pushing for a lot) are pushing for the money. I think with Rubio's age and what he brings right now with potential to get better sadly 12 million or so per starting is probably sorta a reasonable value for this coming contract. How much more will Rubio's reps push for? Idk and as Lip points outits very complex on every side you can think of.

One more angle Lip didn't go down was ashorter contract like. Other FAs have done. So if they want to they can cash in. I have doubts the Wolves will want to let Rubio be able to opt out 2 years from now like Parsons will be able to do with the Mavs. The new TV deal is making players and teams taking some weird chances but they do make sense. Lebron is just one example of that from the players AND owners side. Its sorta crazy players turning down that guaranteed money.

[Lipoli390]

Good points, Monster.

A big part of this is risk management. Ricky's agent has to be concerned about the risk of delaying a deal as well as the risk of a shorter term deal. Ricky's agent has to put a pretty high premium on the total amount of guaranteed money and getting that guarantee sooner rather than later given Ricky's prior injury. At the same time, the Wolves have to be concerned about the risk that Rubio's game takes off, driving up his individual value, and the general upward pressure on salaries and much higher player max we will see after next season when the new TV deal dramatically drives up the salary cap.

The Wolves need to be much smarter about this than they were with Love. That means they can't be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Honestly, if the cap goes to $80 million as expected, $15 million per year will be a bargain for Ricky even if his shooting only improves marginally. The heart of the bargain will be (1) getting Ricky to take a little less overall in exchange for the early guarantee of an extension by Oct. 31; and (2) getting Ricky to accept a little less per year in exchange for getting the 5th year that Kahn and Glen refused to give Love. That's why I'm thinking a flat $15 million per year for 5 years -- max years but not quite max dollars.

Having Ricky at the helm will be a big factor in facilitating the development of Wiggins and LaVine. Ricky's passion, work ethic, team-first attitude and team-oriented play at PG are the qualities we need here as we mold a young team. Locking Ricky in long term, even if it seems pricey right now, will likely turn out to be a bargain.

[mjs34]

Lip, the designated player (5 year deal) has to have 7.5% raises included, so there is no flat rate allowed under that provision. If they give him the 5 years, he is getting over 85 mil total.

I think they should stand on a four year deal around the 48-50 mark, and if he doesn't take it, you wait till next season, or consider trading him.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, the designated player (5 year deal) has to have 7.5% raises included, so there is no flat rate allowed under that provision. If they give him the 5 years, he is getting over 85 mil total.

I think they should stand on a four year deal around the 48-50 mark, and if he doesn't take it, you wait till next season, or consider trading him.

SJM -- I don't think that's true. The CBA sets a max raise, but not a minimum. Only the first year has to be max. It can't go down, but it doesn't gave to go up.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

If he balks on 10, let him hit RFA. He's not good enough to warrant more than 10 before this season. I would tell him to feel free to go get a max if you can and we would match it, but I wouldn't give the current level of play more than 10. Looking at the Bledsoe situation I don't see how Ricky gets offered the max and then we end up with a 5 year 60 million dollar deal like Pek.

[TheGrey08]

5 year 76m deal. The deal will start out at the max of 15m. Its even for the next four years and increased to 16m in the fifth year. The 1m increase in the last year is there as a goodwill to eliminate any thought of an opt out clause after 4.

I think that would be a reasonable deal. Make rubio the designated player without going full max.

With the cap possibly balooning to 80m as lip mentioned. 15m a year wont be a big deal in a few years. I think we have to start out at max money for rubio. If parsons and hayward gets max this off season, no reason for rubio's side not to demand one. Rubio reportedly likes it here. With love likely gone in less than 4 weeks, Im ready to make this rubio's team and let him be the leader.

Those 2 guys are wings who are at a much higher premium than PGs. It doesn't make sense to compare them.

If he balks on 10, let him hit RFA. He's not good enough to warrant more than 10 before this season. I would tell him to feel free to go get a max if you can and we would match it, but I wouldn't give the current level of play more than 10. Looking at the Bledsoe situation I don't see how Ricky gets offered the max and then we end up with a 5 year 60 million dollar deal like Pek.

I pretty much agree, but I'd go up to 12-12.5 per before the season and hope he accepts.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

The thing that gets me is that now, seemingly, anybody in the top 10-15 at their position feels to have a RIGHT to a max deal. In my opinion, a MAX deal is to be utilized to lock up a difference maker for your ballclub. Maybe a top 5 guy at his position. Guys like Rubio, Parsons (whom I really like), Hayward, etc, while being very solid players, are not by definition a MAX guy. They are top-shelf role players (as James Harden called Parsons), and it is ridiculous to pay them like a superstar. Despite that, these freakin owners just keep buying in and doling out money for guys that simply can't and won't live up to the terms of their deals. And every year it seemingly gets worse. Rubio, a max guy? You have to be out of your freakin mind! Yet, even I agree that this is what it MAY take to retain him. Personally, I walk away, but I also understand those that simply think we can't afford to lose him to the "turnstyle" that free agency can create. Fairly soon, your mid-level guy is at $10M+....I just don't get it.