The case for keeping Robbie Hummel

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I talked about my thoughts about Robbie Hummel in Bloop's "Who would you get rid of " thread, and rather than highjacking his thread with this data, decided to start a new one.

I threw out the hypothesis that 3-point shooters do not fare well in their rookie years, but get much better after that. After analyzing the data, concentrating on bench players who make the most threes, I was astonished at how true this hypothesis is. I chose the 10 non-starters who have made the most threes this year, and looked up their 3-point percentage their rookie year, for their career, and for the current year. I chose this group because I thought they would best meet the definition of a "3-point specialist", a role many of us desire on this team and a role that I envision for Robbie. Here are the results:

Player Rookie year Career 2013-14

Korver 39% 43% 48%
G. Green 30 37 39
Crawford 35 35 36
Meeks 28 38 40
Webster 36 39 40
D, Green 27 42 42
Teletovic 34 37 38
Carter 29 38 39
Butler 32 34 40
Farmar 33 38 46

Average 32.3 % 38.1% 40.8%

Pretty amazing, huh. The top ten bench 3-point shooters this year made only 32.3% of their threes their rookie year, but have made 38.1% of their threes for their career and 40.8% this season. Everyone of them except Jamal Crawford (who has been consistent in his percentages his entire career) have improved dramatically since their rookie years. Robbie Hummel made a respectable 34.2% of his threes in this his rookie year. If he were to show the same kind of improvement the rest of this group showed, Robbie would be exactly a 40% career 3-point shooter, and what an asset that would be for this franchise.

As I have mentioned before, Robbie is the best 3-point shooter on the team in shootarounds, and has a better college pedigree than most of the players who are considered 3-point specialists today. I admittedly am a big Hummel supporter...I had to watch him beat up on my Gophers too many years...and I enjoyed his breakout game last night. And he has a beautiful shooting stroke, and is a smart player. He doesn't possess the physical gifts to ever be a complete NBA player, but he certainly seems to have the potential to play a Kyle Korver role for the Wolves, and has more all-around potential than Steve Novak, who has carved out a nice career for himself.

Robbie is cheap and could help solve a major Wolves shortcoming. The Wolves should keep him, and see what next year's coach can do with him. Who knows, next year's coach just might be a guy from Ames who Robbie could emulate.

[Volans19]

I think Robbie is an ideal 15th man, i don't know about giving him consistent minutes but he would be a great guy to keep around and develop.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Great research LST. My only nit-pick is that the data-set is a bit biased because you picked existing "great" bench players. What about all the players who never improved? That's within the realm of possibility too. Close to home, Derrick Williams and Alexsey Shved are two good examples of prospects that projected to eventually be good 3-point shooters and neither have improved a lick.

That being said, I actually agree with your conclusion as it pertains to Hummel. He was a great 3-point shooter in college and also fared well in the Spanish league last year, hitting over 40% of his 3's. So pretty much at every level he's proven himself to be a competent 3-point shooter.

One other note on Robbie: He's the only Wolves bench player we have with a positive +/- rating. I believe a lot of that has to do with the fact he largely plays mistake free basketball (only .6 turnovers per 36 minutes!) and has a very good understanding of offensive and defensive principles.

[Monster]

My guess is the Wolves will give Hummel a shot at a roster spot next year and I think he can improve next year and be a pretty effective bench player. I remember how much better he looked this year in SL action than the previous year and as Q mentioned Hummel had a nice season in the Spanish League which is a very legit league. With Dante having legal troubles that may mean a spot for Hummel to take over a smaller role Cunningham should be playing if the wolves had better depth. Thats being to optimistic about Hummel but also not crazy either. I like Hummel but until he proves otherwise I consider him a 15th man type guy but he has alot of versatility though you can play him a little at maybe 4 positions in a pinch. I think we know Flip likes him so he has that going for him.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

My guess is the Wolves will give Hummel a shot at a roster spot next year and I think he can improve next year and be a pretty effective bench player. I remember how much better he looked this year in SL action than the previous year and as Q mentioned Hummel had a nice season in the Spanish League which is a very legit league. With Dante having legal troubles that may mean a spot for Hummel to take over a smaller role Cunningham should be playing if the wolves had better depth. Thats being to optimistic about Hummel but also not crazy either. I like Hummel but until he proves otherwise I consider him a 15th man type guy but he has alot of versatility though you can play him a little at maybe 4 positions in a pinch. I think we know Flip likes him so he has that going for him.

Monster, Hummel is not far from being a legit rotation player, even on a good team. The second he starts hitting 37%+ of his 3-pointers, a coach will have a really hard time keeping him off the floor because he does all the little stuff well and doesn't make mistakes.

[60WinTim]

I agree with most everything that's been said on Hummel's behalf, and I'll add this: every team needs to fill out their roster with cheap bench players that can contribute if called upon. Hummel has shown he can contribute. He is a RFA and can likely be resigned for the minimum.

If I were ranking Wolves players as to their likelihood of being on the roster next year, Hummel would be at the top alongside Love, Rubio and Dieng. Not because of his importance, but because of the role he fills and the Wolves leverage on the cost to fill that role.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree Tim. Hummel seems like the kind of guy who should stick around. He's a good value that does minimal harm while on the court, yet won't be a nuisance if he has to stay on the bench. My guess is that he's pretty damn thankful the Wolves gave him a shot. And if he really does start to shoot the ball better, he could be a regular part of the rotation.

[bleedspeed]

He is a great 13-15 bench player. He shouldn't be getting minutes over Shabazz, but he is good to have on the bench.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Great research LST. My only nit-pick is that the data-set is a bit biased because you picked existing "great" bench players. What about all the players who never improved? That's within the realm of possibility too. Close to home, Derrick Williams and Alexsey Shved are two good examples of prospects that projected to eventually be good 3-point shooters and neither have improved a lick.

That being said, I actually agree with your conclusion as it pertains to Hummel. He was a great 3-point shooter in college and also fared well in the Spanish league last year, hitting over 40% of his 3's. So pretty much at every level he's proven himself to be a competent 3-point shooter.

One other note on Robbie: He's the only Wolves bench player we have with a positive +/- rating. I believe a lot of that has to do with the fact he largely plays mistake free basketball (only .6 turnovers per 36 minutes!) and has a very good understanding of offensive and defensive principles.

I think you're probably being a little too kind with your nitpick, q. The more I think about it, my research is seriously flawed since using a sample of players who have "made it" presumes that Robbie will also make it. Good point...it would be better to sprinkle in a few players who self destructed after a short career to see if they showed the same 3-point improvement after their rookie years.

Probably better just to say what you said...that he has shot the long ball well at every level. And to employ the eye test to point out that he appears to be the best "unguarded" 3-point shooter on our roster. An effective 3-point specialist can really be a potent weapon if used properly (like Pop does). Hummel appears to have potential for this role.

[Monster]

My guess is the Wolves will give Hummel a shot at a roster spot next year and I think he can improve next year and be a pretty effective bench player. I remember how much better he looked this year in SL action than the previous year and as Q mentioned Hummel had a nice season in the Spanish League which is a very legit league. With Dante having legal troubles that may mean a spot for Hummel to take over a smaller role Cunningham should be playing if the wolves had better depth. Thats being to optimistic about Hummel but also not crazy either. I like Hummel but until he proves otherwise I consider him a 15th man type guy but he has alot of versatility though you can play him a little at maybe 4 positions in a pinch. I think we know Flip likes him so he has that going for him.

Q i said I was holding off judgement on Hummel because we have had too many conversations on this board of guys taking the next step (even if tbe expectations were low) and well except for very few guys in the last 10 years nothing has happened. I am looking at Hummel as a guy I like but I am not PLANNING on him being a contributor. I'll keep him around because he is a solid guy with potential to be the type of player that can be really useful. Ultimately I think we are on the same page on Hummel I just want the guy to prove his worth before I get too bullish on him going forward. I think Hummel is a legit nba player he just looks like a guy that knows how to play basketball. I'll take that over so.e guy that fits a better physical traits and or is younger etc. Hummel is a better athlete and is more skilled than people give him credit for imo.