Occam's Razor

[60WinTim]

Occam's Razor says the simplest solutions tend to be the right ones.

We should have been able to use Occam's Razor to see the DLo for Conley trade coming. The Wolves needed to move Dlo to retain his "salary slot", not to mention the brewing cultural problems. The rebuilding Jazz were looking for 1st round picks and had an aging but effective PG that could net them a 1st rounder. The Lakers had a toxic situation with Westbrook and a needed to shake things up in a last ditch effort to push for the playoffs. It seems so obvious now that the 3-way trade was bound to happen -- the simplest solution to address the three team's problems.

Fast forward to now. The Wolves 2024-25 salary situation was looking precarious at best, prompting many in the media and among fans to sound the warning bells over a month ago. "Precarious" was just blown out of the water with the Naz signing. And what did TC say at the end of the season? Everything we do is centered around ANT! Something has to give with the Wolves' salaries, and Occam's Razor says it's KAT. He is the one with a 14 mil ballooning salary in 2024-25 that's gonna keep growing for years to come. The Wolves biggest need is a PG to groom behind Conley. And while SloMo and Naz help replace KAT's production, they'll need another big with KAT's departure.

Enter Portland. Just as the situations with the Jazz and Lakers led to the trade for Conley, the Portland situation is a near perfect match for the Wolves current situation. The Portland quandary is Lillard. He wants and needs to win now. Adding Scoot doesn't help him win now. The Portland FO has a choice: rebuild now by trading Lillard, or trade Scoot to get someone to help Lillard win now. They have stated they want to win with Lillard. KAT is pretty much a perfect fit for Portland's roster.

Given the situation and needs, Occam's Razor says KAT for Scoot and Jurkic is the simplest solution for both teams. We seem to all have different opinions on what else needs to be included to make it work. But whatever those are, KAT for Scoot and Jurkic seems destined to happen.

[Sundog]

I’m as a big a fan of Occam as you’ll find, but I don’t know that you’ve come to right result here. I agree that trading one of either Rudy or KAT this season makes the most sense… But if we’re assuming the simplest answer is the most likely, I think we need to take TC/Finch at their word that they are running it back, and that neither KAT or Rudy are being traded.

[Carlos Danger]

Good stuff. And interesting take. It's plausible. But I'm still of the opinion they are running it back until at least the trade deadline. My gut just tells me TC wants to see that original Twin Towers vision for a decent sample size before he makes any big moves.

I've been on record since last season that I'm totally fine with moving KAT assuming we get appropriate value back. I just don't think anything big will drop until they see all the main pieces play together for a few months.

[60WinTim]

I’m as a big a fan of Occam as you’ll find, but I don’t know that you’ve come to right result here. I agree that trading one of either Rudy or KAT this season makes the most sense… But if we’re assuming the simplest answer is the most likely, I think we need to take TC/Finch at their word that they are running it back, and that neither KAT or Rudy are being traded.

Yeah, I tend to be wrong far more often than I am right...

While Minnesota can put off their problem for a year, Portland cannot. Maybe it won't with the Wolves, but Portland is going to do something big.

[Q-is-here]

I’m as a big a fan of Occam as you’ll find, but I don’t know that you’ve come to right result here. I agree that trading one of either Rudy or KAT this season makes the most sense… But if we’re assuming the simplest answer is the most likely, I think we need to take TC/Finch at their word that they are running it back, and that neither KAT or Rudy are being traded.

Yeah, I tend to be wrong far more often than I am right...

While Minnesota can put off their problem for a year, Portland cannot. Maybe it won't with the Wolves, but Portland is going to do something big.

But Portland may go the opposite direction and trade Lillard, no? That's still big news of course, but it would be the opposite of trying to trade for a second star like KAT. Frankly, I hope that's the direction they go. The more rebuilding teams in the West, the better for us. Memphis and Phoenix got better and OKC was right on our tails last season. I'm kinda hoping the Lakers and Golden State implode due to age/injuries.

[Coolbreeze44]

The vibe here in Portland is Dame is staying. He has his car dealership, new house, and wants to still win here. And the organization is not going to trade him unless it's a mutual decision he move on. I have to believe they know they can keep either Sharpe or Simons. That along with the addition of KAT gives them a chance. It wouldn't totally shock me if the deal for KAT is already agreed to in principle and they are waiting for the July 7 hold to pass.

[Jester1534]

The vibe here in Portland is Dame is staying. He has his car dealership, new house, and wants to still win here. And the organization is not going to trade him unless it's a mutual decision he move on. I have to believe they know they can keep either Sharpe or Simons. That along with the addition of KAT gives them a chance. It wouldn't totally shock me if the deal for KAT is already agreed to in principle and they are waiting for the July 7 hold to pass.

Cool what is the point of the July 7th hold date. Sorry I’m pretty out of the loop.

[60WinTim]

The vibe here in Portland is Dame is staying. He has his car dealership, new house, and wants to still win here. And the organization is not going to trade him unless it's a mutual decision he move on. I have to believe they know they can keep either Sharpe or Simons. That along with the addition of KAT gives them a chance. It wouldn't totally shock me if the deal for KAT is already agreed to in principle and they are waiting for the July 7 hold to pass.

Cool what is the point of the July 7th hold date. Sorry I’m pretty out of the loop.

KAT signed his max extension on July 7th of last year. And the rules say he cannot be traded until the 1 year anniversary of signing his extension.

[Jester1534]

The vibe here in Portland is Dame is staying. He has his car dealership, new house, and wants to still win here. And the organization is not going to trade him unless it's a mutual decision he move on. I have to believe they know they can keep either Sharpe or Simons. That along with the addition of KAT gives them a chance. It wouldn't totally shock me if the deal for KAT is already agreed to in principle and they are waiting for the July 7 hold to pass.

Cool what is the point of the July 7th hold date. Sorry I’m pretty out of the loop.

KAT signed his max extension on July 7th of last year. And the rules say he cannot be traded until the 1 year anniversary of signing his extension.

Thanks Tim

[60WinTim]

Just to throw some more twigs on the fire...

Remember when KAT made that odd statement on the PatBev podcast about "he'll play wherever MN chooses to have him play", or however he worded it? He had clearly spent time thinking about how to phrase it, because he stumbled at the start, collected his thoughts, and blurted it out.

I can't help but think he was made aware of the possibility of him moving elsewhere!