What’s Wrong with the Wolves?

[Lipoli390]

We’ve all been grappling with this question in various threads so I thought I’d start a thread devoted solely to this broad question. With nearly a quarter of the 2024-25 season gone, the Wolves are obviously struggling and a shadow of what they were last season. The team is worse both defensively and offensively and on pace to deliver yet another lottery pick to the Utah Jazz at the end of the season.

I found the following write-up by Jon K interesting:

Remember the fun Timberwolves squad that, after being down 3-2, shocked the world by beating the defending champion Nuggets on the road in Game 7 of last season’s conference semifinals? Well, that’s not so much the Wolves’ vibe this season. They’ve lost four of their last five, and their most recent loss to the Sacramento Kings led Anthony Edwards to be very honest about this team:

“We soft as hell as a team, internally. Not to the other team, but internally, we soft. We can’t talk to each other. Just a bunch of little kids. Just like we playing with a bunch of little kids. Everybody, the whole team. We just can’t talk to each other. And we’ve got to figure it out, because we can’t go down this road.

“I’m trying to get better in that aspect, figure out what the hell to say to get everybody on the same agenda because everybody right now is on different agendas.”
 
Minnesota did end that four-game losing streak with a clutch victory over the Clippers this past weekend, but the Wolves look very different than what we saw last season: 
    •    Defense: Top defensive rating last season (108.4) | 10th-best defensive rating this season (111.4)
    •    Offense: 17th-best offensive rating last season (114.6) | 17th-best offensive rating this season (112.3)
    •    Net rating: Third-best last season (plus-6.3) | 13th-best this season (plus-0.9)
    •    Wins: 56-26 last season (third in West) | 9-10 this season (tied for 10th in West), projected 39-43
    •    Clutch games: 21-15 last season | 6-7 this season

At this time last season, the Wolves were 15-4, tied with the Celtics for the best record in the entire NBA. Their offense was still just 18th in the NBA (113.2), but their defense (106.7) was comfortably the best. Only three teams had a better net rating. Minnesota was also 7-1 in clutch games with the third-best net rating (plus-23.1). 
 
The big difference between these Wolves and last season’s is the Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo trade. It was a financial move disguised as a basketball move, and the basketball is suffering. The Wolves’ defense has regressed, and Randle isn’t exactly replacing 1997 Dennis Rodman on that end of the floor. Randle’s individual numbers look fine, but his impact on the team has been more negative than it should be. 
 
It doesn’t help that DiVincenzo went from shooting like Klay Thompson last season with the Knicks to shooting like Antoine Walker. The Wolves were expecting a boost on both ends of the floor with the 27-year-old DiVincenzo, and that just hasn’t happened. To be fair, this move happened right before training camp broke, and it was a surprise to most, including Minnesota’s players and staff. The Wolves still need time to build the chemistry the previous core had. 
 
My three fixes for the Wolves would be:
    1    Listen to the coach: Ant says the players have been doing their own thing. But Chris Finch and his staff’s game plans are pretty successful.
    2    Be patient with Donte. He’s a great shooter, and this should pass without anyone needing to panic.
    3    Bring Randle off the bench. This is tougher with regard to managing Randle’s ego, but starting Naz Reid would bring better balance to the floor and rotation. However, it only works if Randle buys in, and he might not do that in a potential contract year.

My one quibble with Jon K is his reference to Donte as a “great shooter.” Donte shot very well his last two seasons, but he’s a career 37% three-point shooter and 42% FG shooter. Great shooters have career numbers like Klay Thompson 42%/45%; Steph Curry 42.6%/47%; Buddy Hield 40%/43.5%; Steve Kerr 39.5%/43%; Tyler Herro 39%/44%; KAT 40%/52.4%. Donte is a good shooter and will likely improve on his current 32% three-point shooting this season. He also does some other things well. But I think there were some exaggerated expectations associated with the acquisition of Donte. KAT was an elite three-point shooter who was a highly efficient 23 points per game scorer; Donte isn’t and neither is Randle.

So when it comes to Jon’s suggested three fixes, I have the following thoughts:

1. Listening to the coaching staff seems like a good idea, but I can’t help but wonder if or why they haven’t been doing so already. Seriously, given how this team has struggled it’s hard to believe the players haven’t been listening to and following the plans of the coaching staff. I suspect it’s more of any inability to execute and/or lack of effort. If my suspicions are correct, that’s a serious problem. If it turns out the players simply haven’t been listening to the coaching staff or following their directions, that’s an equally serious problem. In either case, that’s not a coaching problem; it’s a player problem. Finch is a really good head coach and his top assistant is highly regarded and likely to become a head coach at some point. The good teams have leadership on the roster that makes sure the players are on the same page and taking direction from the coaching staff. Ant obviously isn’t succeeding in that regard. But even more troubling is the failure of more seasoned vets like Gobert and Randle to bring that sort of discipline.

2. I agree we should be patient with Donte since he’s bound to improve on his current 32% three-point shooting, but we should also temper our expectations. He’s a good but great shooter. He’s a decent defender, but not in NAW’s class. And if we continue to ask him to fill the PG void Father Time created at that position, we’ll be sorely disappointed because Donte isn’t a PG and it’s not fair to him to put him in that role.

3. I agree we should replace Randle with Naz in the starting lineup. Many of us were already been advocating for that. Doing so would likely improve our defense and also improve our offense by opening up more space in the land for Ant - assuming Ant starts attacking more instead of jacking up threes all the time. But that move would only do so much and would probably create a very disgruntled Randle, driving his minimal trade value down to zero or below if it isn’t there already. And we’re still a Rudy Gobert ankle tweak from our mediocre defense becoming really bad.

Some things Jon left out of his analysis:

1. Also missing from Jon’s analysis is the loss of Kyle Anderson. KAT had become a good defender even before last season and Kyle was an excellent defender as well as very good rebounder. Effectively swapping out those two for Randle and Donte was bound to hurt our defense and rebounding. Losing Kyle also took away some much needed toughness. I thought Randle would bring toughness, but I was wrong. He brings a sort of faux toughness. It’s not real.

2. Jaden’s failure to progress offensively or as a rebounder while also seemingly taking a step back defensively. All of this might be attributable to KAT’s departure. A player of KAT’s caliber can mask a lot of deficiencies in other players. But Jaden’s failure to show a steady arc of significant improvement in key areas is a serious concern.

[Lipoli390]

Drilling down a bit into our flawed roster, I mentioned in another thread that Ant needs another great player and elite scorer with him in the lineup. Tatum has Jaylen Brown. Donovan Mitchell has Darius Garland. Doncic has Kyrie Irving. SGA has Jalen Williams. (For those who might have raised eye brows at the notion of Jalen Williams as an elite offensive player, note that he’s averaging 21.5 points, 5.2 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.1 steals while shooting 39.4% from behind the arc and 50.5% from the field). The only teammate of Ant who is scoring anything close to 20+ points per game is Randle and he’s nothing close to a great player when you consider the rest of his game and limitations. Last season Ant had KAT last season and we won 56 games. He didn’t have KAT two seasons ago because of injury when we won 42 and he doesn’t have KAT this season as we’re on track to win around 39 games. and didn’t have KAT two seasons ago because of KAT’s injury. So it’s no mystery what happens when Ant doesn’t have a player of KAT’s caliber with him. Ant needs another elite scoring guard or wing with ball skills - someone like Jaylen Brown, Jalen Williams, Kyrie Irving, Darius Garland, Klay Thompson in his prime, etc or even KAT. Until he does, we need to be measured in how much we hold Ant responsible for how bad the Wolves are this season.

We can and should deploy the players we have differently by swapping Naz for Randle in the starting lineup. That will help. But that can’t overcome a flawed roster. I was hoping that Jaden would become more than he is, but I’ve finally accepted that’s unlikely. So he won’t become the other elite player Ant needs. We have a couple guys, Rob Dillingham and TSJ, on the roster who could eventually fill that role, but they’re not ready yet for a team that wants to win now. I think TSJ is ready physically (unlike Rob), but he hasn’t been given the opportunity. He needs playing time.

I think Jon K nailed it referring to the KAT trade as a financially motivated deal masquerading as a basketball move. My view is that this organization should stop pretending. Unloading KAT’s contract for the return we received necessarily meant we’re not going to be a championship contender in the improved Western Conference. That means this organization should be looking ahead to put this team back in position to contend two seasons from now when Ant will still be only 25 and probably entering the prime of his career. As I see it, that means it’s time to give Rob more time and begin throwing TSJ into the deep end. He’s physically ready and might have the offensive chops to help take some of the offensive pressure off Ant. We have around 60 games left to give Rob and TSJ meaningful minutes so they can develop for next season and the season after. It might also make sense to begin giving Josh Minott more minutes as well.

Meanwhile, the organization will have to make some critical decisions regarding current players. Is it time to move on from Jaden while we can still get a nice return via trade? Maybe. He’s still our best trade chip. I like Donte and his contract, but we could get a nice return for him either in February or next summer. That’s something to consider. I think we need to move on from Randle but that means trading him before the February trade deadline. I wouldn’t expect much in return. I’d focus on trying to trade him for an expiring contract to create financial flexibility for things like re-signing Naz and NAW.

The only players I’d be intent on keeping as our core moving forward would be Ant, Naz, NAW, Rob, TSJ and Rudy (although I’d be open to trading Rudy if we got an offer we couldn’t refuse). That doesn’t mean we should trade everyone else. For example, maybe it’s best to hold onto Jaden. However, those are the six I envision as our core moving forward. Note that re-signing both Naz and NAW without staying above the 2nd apron will be challenging and would probably require us to unload Randle for an expiring contract.

[rapsuperstar31]

Could always trade for Kyle Anderson back. Golden State isn't playing him much 15 minutes per night. I doubt they would want Randle and it would hurt our rebounding further. But if GS doesn't want to pay Kuminga's next contract where he wants 5 years 175 million (minutes are down and not starting). Randle and filler for Kuminga, Anderson, and Melton's one year where he he's hurt and not going to play again this season.

[thedoper]

I think if the regression from last year ranks as follows:

1. Conley
2. Jaden
3. Everyone else on the roster

I picked 1 and 2 because we have a huge vacuum on both sides of the floor from these two that didnt exist last year. My personal opinion is that the dropoff from KAT to Randle has been negligible. But having Conley be either injured or unplayable and having Jaden be a ghost of himself is really creating challenges for this squad.

[60WinTim]

And I'll still bring up another factor that has not been mentioned in this thread: team chemistry. While not the only factor, it clearly is one of them, highlighted by ANT's comments. Tonight is game 20 of the season - a benchmark frequently used for measuring the progress of a team's chemistry. The Wolves won their last game and have had an extra day of practice. I would say this is a pretty important game tonight.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think three simple things are the primary reasons for the slow start.

1.) No backup center. The Wolves are among the worst teams in the league defensively without Rudy on the floor.

2.) Trade timing and lack of chemistry. Pretty obvious that it could be tough to integrate two new guys quickly (guys like Rudy and Randle are tough to play with to start with). Not only that it was kind of a shocker and maybe a kick to the nuts if you were on KATs side and wanted him here this year.

3.) They just expected to be great on defense since they were last year. Nope it takes effort and also goes back to 1 and 2. A bit of low effort has been all too common in the first twenty games. Guys are not flying around as much as they were last year.

[Q-is-here]

We're up to 7th now in Defensive Rating, so the Ant pep talk had an impact in terms of the team reclaiming their identity as a defensive team first and foremost. I doubt they can climb to #1 or #2, but being in the Top 10 should be the expectation.

But yeah, the offense is stuck where it was last year at #17, so it's still a below average offense. And if you suddenly play Dillingham a lot, we can expect the defense to suffer, as even if he gives 110% effort on that end he's going to be a liability.

One alternative to replacing Randle with Reid in the starting lineup (which on paper makes sense) is to replace Jaden with NAW in the starting lineup and move Ant to the 3. I think that would give the starting unit a bit more energy right off the bat and better shooting. Either way, it's a politically fraught decision and probably unlikely to happen. A trade will likely shake up the starting lineup before Finch does anything to upset Randle and/or Jaden and their agents.

I do think Shannon Jr. is super intriguing. Minott is currently ahead of him on the depth chart, but I think TSJ has a lot of potential as a wing that can defend and put the ball in the basket.

[thedoper]

I think replacing Jaden with DDV in the starting lineup would make sense. Up Dillingham’s minutes in the 2nd unit with Jaden always out there to hide Dilly on their worst offensive threat.