Where we Stand after the All-Star Break

[Q-is-here]

Here is where we stand heading into our next game this Friday:

- 7th in the Western Conference, 11th best record overall.

- 14th in Offensive Rating, 6th in Defensive Rating, 8th in Net Rating. This is exactly the same as where it was after the trade deadline.

- Our "expected wins", based on statistical probability, is 34-22, which is 8th best in the NBA and would be 6th place in the West. Those close game losses to inferior teams have set us back, but may be not as bad as one would think. Basically turn the losses against Washington, Milwaukee, and one of those Portland games into wins and we move up.....one spot in the West.

- Randle and DDV will be back eventually, although exact timing is uncertain. Randle probably sooner than DDV.

- Jaden and Naz have stepped into the void left by Randle. The good news is that both have proven they can take on bigger roles. The bad news is we didn't necessarily get better. In other words, Randle is neither a deleterious presence when playing or a big positive. We can definitely afford to move on without him next season, but it isn't automatically addition by subtraction.

- The emergence of Clark and Shannon makes re-signing NAW less of a necessity.

- Dillingham continues to prove that he is immensely talented....and immensely inexperienced. Not sure he's ready to step into the starting PG role next season.


Main questions for the board: How should Finch go about re-integrating Randle and DDV into the rotation and once they are fully healthy, what should the rotation look like? How many players? Is it matchup dependent? Does Randle start or come off the bench? Should DDV return to starting PG? Etc.

[60WinTim]

Thanks for Qing this up Q!

I am not confident at all that Finch will proceed the way I want, but here is what I wish for:

- I want NAZ to remain the starter when Randle comes back. The extra threat NAZ presents from the outside plus his dynamic ball handling is some of that extra juice the starting lineup has frequently missed over the season. And if NAZ is a higher priority than Randle this offseason, then DUH, show him the love now!

- I want DDV back in the starting lineup. Conley is a "part-time" player, either by his minutes and/or games played. I know it's a lineup without a traditional PG, but they were having some pretty good success after DDV's initial stint in the starting lineup, especially after some chemistry began to develop, and with NAZ in there as well, it should be good.

- The rookies need to keep playing, even if it comes at the expense of some of NAW's minutes. The kids have already demonstrated that retaining NAW is a luxury the Wolves cannot afford.


One other note about where the Wolves stand: According to tankathon, the Wolves have the 5th easiest remaining schedule coming out of the All-Star break. After these next 4 games, they will have one of the top 2 easiest remaining schedule by a LOT (they may not slip past Toronto, who has quite the lead in that regard).

So, if the Wolves can start getting healthy and start taking care of business against weaker teams, they have the opportunity to not only be a top-6 team in the West, but maybe vie for top-4.

[FNG]

Great questions, Q, and ones we're all thinking about. It will be interesting to see how Finchie works his rotations. We know he is a proponent of an 8 or 9 man lineup, and with the emergence of our three young guys, he now has 11 he can trust...and that doesn't even include Minott or Ingles. Our five injured players (Rudy, Conley, Ant, Ju and Donte) will not all return at once, so there will still be some playing time for our youngsters. I anticipate Ant and Rudy being ready to go Friday, and maybe Mike. And then Ju returns next followed by Donte.

But let's assume the entire roster is healthy. Some have suggested Ju will automatically be installed as a starter when he returns, but I see three reasons he won't. 1) Naz has thrived in his starting role, 2) there are several examples of starters easing back into a reserve role after an injury, and 3) while Ju has been a starter most of his career, it's interesting to note the last time he was not...he came off the bench in 24 games back in 2018-9 in NO with Finchie on the coaching staff. I think Finchie will remind Ju how effective he was in that role that season (25.5 points per 36), and keep Naz in the starting lineup. Next, since I think Ju and Donte work off each other so well, I want them coming off the bench at the same time. Rudy, Naz, Jaden, Ant and Mike start, and Ju, Donte and NAW are the first three off the bench.

So, who else then fits in the rotation? As much as I like Rob's potential, if everyone is healthy, I see him as odd man out. Clark and Shannon have proven to be excellent defenders, and I think the situation will dictate who Finchie has as 9th man...TJ if we need more offense, Clark if we don't. And Rob will play on the nights either Mike or Donte are out.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The 34 - 22 record would have the Wolves only .5 game back from homecourt in the playoffs. More importantly, it would have them 3 games clear of the dreaded play-in and 7 games from the disastrous non-playoff spot. And should it be too much to ask a Timberwolves team to win MORE than its projected record? I remember going through the seasons where the team underperformed a few years back. It was comical.

As for the bigger lineup issues... I don't expect DiVincenzo back any time soon. And after that sort of extended layoff, I imagine we're kind of going back to square one with him trying to fit in when (if) he returns. It's a shame because he was playing his best basketball at the time.

I anticipate a shorter leash for everyone else. There are only so many minutes to go around between Reid, Randle and Gobert. All are veterans who certainly believe they deserve 32+ mpg. The delicate balance to placate each of them might be the story line for the rest of the season. Should be interesting... and we might learn a bit more about each of those players.

Along with the three bigs dilemma... what about Jaden McDaniels? He's been good (better) when at the 4. But where is he getting those minutes with the other three bigs?
 
Clark and Shannon will have a few opportunities to get run. But it might depend on Conley. I think he's been much better defensively than on offense this season. Or at least the regression is less noticeable. NAW could be the guy on a leash at times.

It's going to come down to the final week of the season.

[Q-is-here]

Thanks for Qing this up Q!

I am not confident at all that Finch will proceed the way I want, but here is what I wish for:

- I want NAZ to remain the starter when Randle comes back. The extra threat NAZ presents from the outside plus his dynamic ball handling is some of that extra juice the starting lineup has frequently missed over the season. And if NAZ is a higher priority than Randle this offseason, then DUH, show him the love now!

- I want DDV back in the starting lineup. Conley is a "part-time" player, either by his minutes and/or games played. I know it's a lineup without a traditional PG, but they were having some pretty good success after DDV's initial stint in the starting lineup, especially after some chemistry began to develop, and with NAZ in there as well, it should be good.

- The rookies need to keep playing, even if it comes at the expense of some of NAW's minutes. The kids have already demonstrated that retaining NAW is a luxury the Wolves cannot afford.


One other note about where the Wolves stand: According to tankathon, the Wolves have the 5th easiest remaining schedule coming out of the All-Star break. After these next 4 games, they will have one of the top 2 easiest remaining schedule by a LOT (they may not slip past Toronto, who has quite the lead in that regard).

So, if the Wolves can start getting healthy and start taking care of business against weaker teams, they have the opportunity to not only be a top-6 team in the West, but maybe vie for top-4.

On Naz, I totally agree. Keep him in the starting lineup!

On DDV and Conley....keep in mind that one of the reasons Conley went to the bench is that Finch thought he could be a more active presence by not overlapping as much with "point forward" Randle. Separately, is DDV going to have another slow start after injury again??? That was painful. So while I agree longer-term that DDV should be starting, I'm not so sure that makes the most sense coming off of injury. I kind of like the idea of him and Randle coming off the bench.

[Coolbreeze44]

I'm excited about what we might see the rest of the year. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we go on a nice run, maybe even a lengthy winning streak sometime after these next few games. I think an identity is being crafted, one that can be sustained. Defense travels and we have the pieces to start locking teams up. Continued great play by Ant, Jaden, and NAZ would really help the cause. It seems a new big 3 is coming together.

[Lipoli390]

I'm excited about what we might see the rest of the year. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we go on a nice run, maybe even a lengthy winning streak sometime after these next few games. I think an identity is being crafted, one that can be sustained. Defense travels and we have the pieces to start locking teams up. Continued great play by Ant, Jaden, and NAZ would really help the cause. It seems a new big 3 is coming together.

I like that new big three that’s coming together!

[Lipoli390]

Thanks for Qing this up Q!

I am not confident at all that Finch will proceed the way I want, but here is what I wish for:

- I want NAZ to remain the starter when Randle comes back. The extra threat NAZ presents from the outside plus his dynamic ball handling is some of that extra juice the starting lineup has frequently missed over the season. And if NAZ is a higher priority than Randle this offseason, then DUH, show him the love now!

- I want DDV back in the starting lineup. Conley is a "part-time" player, either by his minutes and/or games played. I know it's a lineup without a traditional PG, but they were having some pretty good success after DDV's initial stint in the starting lineup, especially after some chemistry began to develop, and with NAZ in there as well, it should be good.

- The rookies need to keep playing, even if it comes at the expense of some of NAW's minutes. The kids have already demonstrated that retaining NAW is a luxury the Wolves cannot afford.


One other note about where the Wolves stand: According to tankathon, the Wolves have the 5th easiest remaining schedule coming out of the All-Star break. After these next 4 games, they will have one of the top 2 easiest remaining schedule by a LOT (they may not slip past Toronto, who has quite the lead in that regard).

So, if the Wolves can start getting healthy and start taking care of business against weaker teams, they have the opportunity to not only be a top-6 team in the West, but maybe vie for top-4.

Exactly where I’m at, Tim.

[Q-is-here]

I'm excited about what we might see the rest of the year. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we go on a nice run, maybe even a lengthy winning streak sometime after these next few games. I think an identity is being crafted, one that can be sustained. Defense travels and we have the pieces to start locking teams up. Continued great play by Ant, Jaden, and NAZ would really help the cause. It seems a new big 3 is coming together.

I like that new big three that’s coming together!

Yeah, feels like it's more important than ever to keep these three together. I'm still not sure Jaden or Naz can be a clear #2, but they certainly seem to be emerging as #3s. Jaden especially has shown that when freed up to not constantly be chasing the opposing team's best offensive weapon and limited to corner 3s, he can go do other things out there. And Naz has shown for the second year in a row that he is perfectly capable of stepping into the starting PF role.

In the absence of Ant becoming a top 5 player (which still could happen, but I won't assume it), he needs another strong perimeter creator out there, i.e. a dynamic PG. We all hope it's Rob Dillingham, but it's clearly going to take some time with him.

[60WinTim]

With all this downtime on my hands... I fired up the old Klunk-O-Meter (pain-in-the-butt entering the remaining schedules for all the teams it tracks).

I tweaked the rankings of teams in various ways, but the Wolves almost always came out as the #6 seed. The most opTIMistic ranking, where I lump the Wolves with the Thunder, Griz, Nuggets, Cavs, Celts and Knicks as the top teams, the Wolves only finished as the #4 seed. I suppose home court in round one is something...

As mentioned earlier, the Wolves have a very favorable schedule after these next 4 games. So, maybe there are a bunch of anti-klunkers in their future. We'll see how these next 4 games go, where the Wolves will likely not be favored in any of them (ie. anti-klunker opportunities).