Minnesota Sports Forum

FNG wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 9:49 pm Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

FNG wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 9:49 pm Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 11:49 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 9:49 pm Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

Boston entered their series vs. the Knicks -900, Knicks +550.

Boston lost the first 2 games at home and were STILL -300 to win the series.

Just split the first 2 at OKC and go from there.

FNG wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 8:20 am

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 11:49 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 9:49 pm Well, my days as a bookmaker are over. I thought this would open at about OkC-150. The Wolves are riding high with the national media after two 4-1 series wins, while OkC had to go 7 to beat Denver, so this line is a shock to me.

So now I'm going to say two things that might sound contradictory. The Wolves were so sloppy at times during the Warriors series, and OkC's pressure defense creates so many turnovers, it feels like a bad matchup right now. I may change my mind before tipoff on Tuesday, but this feels like a 4-1 to me. Having said that and knowing how much better the Wolves play when they don't feel like the favorite, any smart bettor needs to take the Wolves +265...it seems like a really bad line, and might be influenced by how badly they beat up the Nuggets today.

(and I may be influenced too much by today's game too...OkC scared the crap out of me today)

Boston entered their series vs. the Knicks -900, Knicks +550.

Boston lost the first 2 games at home and were STILL -300 to win the series.

Just split the first 2 at OKC and go from there.

You're right, WW. The typical sports gambler is not very smart, and recency bias greatly impacts the lines. Forgotten is the fact that the Wolves dispatched two California teams 4-1, and the Thunder's thrashing of Denver yesterday is foremost in the betting public's mind. Hence a ridiculously inflated line. I agree that we need to get a split in OkC.

But I continue to worry about this series. The propensity of Ant/Ju to turn the ball over combined with a ferocious defense that loves to turn teams over is a prescription for a very frustrating series. I had nightmares as I drifted off to sleep last night of layup after layup by the Thunder after turnovers. Their 37-7 advantage in points after turnovers yesterday is downright scary. Take a look at the only game in which we played OkC at full strength (Ju missed the last 3 games)...the 113-105 loss on their court. In that game we turned the ball over 23 times against 21 assists, while OkC had 25 assists and only 8 turnovers...it's kind of amazing we only lost by 8, but maybe Holmgren being out kept the score closer. I do note that Mike had only 1 of those turnovers. It seems to me that having the ball in his hands more than our two top scorers might be the strategy to combat OkC's defense. We'll have to see, I guess. I think we all agree though that protecting the ball will be the key to keeping this series competitive...the 12 turnovers Ant and Ju had in Game 5 against the Warriors ain't gonna work against this team.