Ant and Winning a Title

[Q-is-here]

It makes sense that the path of least resistance for the Wolves breaking through the Western Conference and getting to the Finals is for Ant to start playing like an MVP-candidate and gets in the conversation with the likes of SGA, Doncic, Giannis and Jokic. He doesn't have to necessarily win the MVP, but he ends up somewhere among the top 5 vote-getters.

But what if that never happens? What if he mostly is what he is at this point, which is in that next tier down, never quite breaking into the top 5 players in the league? Can the Wolves still win a title?

The answer is YES! Although it's obviously more difficult and there is far less room for error in building the roster. But here are seven examples in the last ~ 20 years of teams that won a title without a top-5 MVP vote getter. I will list the year, team, and their best player.

For reference, Ant had a PER of 20.1 and was 7th in MVP votes last year, his age 23 season. His current PER is 21.9 while in the midst of a shooting slump.

'23-24 Celtics: Jayson Tatum (Player Efficiency Rating = 22.3, 6th in MVP votes). And it was Jaylen Brown that won the Finals MVP that year! It was just a really well-constructed team without any holes in it.

'21-22 Warriors: Stephen Curry (PER = 21.4, 8th in MVP). This was Golden State's last title run and Curry, while still really good (and still is!), was past his peak. Perennial underachiever Andrew Wiggins of all people was key in them winning it all that year!

'18-19 Raptors: Kawhi Leonard (PER = 25.8, 9th in MVP). The Raptors had a really good team before the fleeting acquisition of Kawhi. He took them over the top. You could argue that being voted 9th in MVP that year was undervaluing his impact, but he certainly didn't put up Jokic, Giannis, or SGA-type numbers that season.

'13-14 Spurs: Tim Duncan (PER = 21.3, 12th in MVP). Duncan was pretty old at this point and well past his prime, but he was the best player on the team that had multiple great players, but none were clear MVP-caliber players at this point in time. Tony Parker led the team in scoring that season. He averaged 16.7 points per game!

'10-11 Mavs: Dirk Nowitzski (PER = 23.4, 6th in MVP). Dallas took down the super-friends team of LeBron, Wade, and Bosh that clearly had the most talent in the NBA at the peak of their collective powers. It can be done!

'05-06 Heat: Dwayne Wade (PER = 27.6, 6th in MVP). Based on Wade's PER, he exhibited MVP-caliber production, but only came in 6th the season he won a title pre-LeBron/super friends. But I think Ant at 26 or 27 could potentially get to this level.

'03-04 Pistons: Not Applicable. Not a single player on this team had a PER of 20 or higher. Richard Hamilton was their leading scorer at 17.6 PPG. Ben Wallace was the closest they had to an MVP. This is the guy that averaged 9 points, shot 42% from the field and 49% on free throws. And we complain about Rudy!?!

[FNG]

Terrific research, Q, and I agree with your conclusion. I still think Ant has the talent to be in the MVP conversation, and getting to that level would make a championship that much easier!

[rapsuperstar31]

Not necessarily on the main topic here, but regarding his recent slump. Here's what Wade had to say during one of his slump in 2010.


"He heard it, read it, but couldn't comprehend it.

"It was a surprise to me," Dwyane Wade said Tuesday.

Not his shooting slump. Wade's had those. Last season, he had terrible two-game stretches of 12-for-37, 12-for-41 and 13-for-39. Even during the championship season of 2005-06, he had a back-to-back of 9-for-35.

Rather, the reaction.

"I mean, I probably went through it every year of my career, where I go through a slump," Wade said, after Tuesday's practice in preparation for a rematch with the Utah Jazz. "But I've always proven to come out of that slump pretty good. So it surprises me that people will say after, seven years of body of work, we need to be concerned now because Dwyane is not shooting the ball the way he normally has."

He laughed.

"I mean, that's stupid," Wade said.

The silliest thing he's heard this season?

"That was it," Wade said. "That's crazy."

That he forgot how to play?

"That I forgot how to play," Wade scoffed.

So it's better to come clean here, before continuing. I was among those who, during a 3 1/2-game November stretch in which Wade made just 13-of-55 shots, expressed concern about whether this latest slump symbolized something more. Not that he forgot how to play. Of course he didn't. Not that he couldn't recover. Of course he could. But it did seem possible, with him looking more lost than since early in his rookie season, that this was more than a blip. It seemed like a structural issue, one that resulted from playing with two new teammates who also required frequent touches, and one that would take quite a bit of time and work to sort out. His midrange game gone, he was relying too much on his unreliable three-point shot.

So what's he done since?

He's shown again why it's so dumb to doubt him.

He's made 58-of-104 shots. That's 56 percent. He's now up to 47 percent on the season, just below his career (48.2) mark.

It's not like he caught fire from long-range, either. He hasn't made a three-pointer in the past seven games. But he's taken only five, for an average of 0.7 attempts. Through his first 14 games, he was averaging 3.3 attempts.

He's getting better looks from closer distances, after taking a hard look at himself.

"Dwyane has such a high IQ, and he's introspective," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "That's the reason why he always figures it out. He'll get to the film, he'll get with the coaches and start making adjustments."

What did he see as he analyzed his shots?

That while he missing many that he normally hits, on the move to the basket, he was also shooting "some shots that probably, at the time, I wasn't necessarily comfortable shooting."

Including those threes.

"For me, it's all whether it's the right time to shoot threes," Wade said. "Sometimes, in my struggle, I was shooting them at the wrong time. I think I have a higher percentage when I step inside and I get in my comfort zone and my mid-range jumper. That's what I've been effective at since I've been in the league, since the middle of my rookie year. Just going back to what I'm comfortable with."

Spoelstra has tried to get his team to speed up the tempo, even if that results in one-on-two transition opportunities for Wade or LeBron James. He figures that those attack situations are easier opportunities than Wade and James will find in the initial sequence of the half-court, as set defenses pack the lane to prevent drives. He has no problem with Wade shooting threes, in rhythm.

"If he gets layups, dunks, free throws and pullup jumpers, there's probably a pretty good chance that he feels pretty good about the three," Spoelstra said.

Spoelstra feels better of late about Wade's poise and patience in secondary half-court situations, once the ball swings to him.

"The pullup is a big part of his game," Spoelstra said.

It is again. For that, Spoelstra credits time more than any single suggestion.

"If we did nothing, these guys would be able to figure it out," Spoelstra said.

Maybe someday, no one will be stupid enough to doubt that Wade will.

[60WinTim]

Nice find, rap!

We were told ANT worked on his midrange game this offseason. And during this slump, I've been surprised he hasn't gone to the midrange game more often. You should forward this conversation to ANT!

[AussieWolf3]

That is an awesome find Rap!
Obviously one can't concluded that just cause Wade come back from his slump hot, so too will Ant. However, it does remind us that players go through ups and downs in just their rhythm with the game and everything.
Ant also is known to have a tremendous work ethic and effort- I expect he is looking at the film and evaluating what the issues are. I don't know that he'll come to the correct conclusion, but I do believe he'll put in the effort to be better.

Back to the conversation at hand. I think this a great topic Q!
I think there are two questions worth answering here
1) can Ant play at an MVP level
2) can the roster around Ant become good enough to where he doesn't have to do that for them to win a ship.

For my own part I want to just look at these questions in terms of this year since the further into the future you go with this, the more theoretical it all is and it's really just a game of wish casting

RE question 1- I truly believe Ant can do that THIS year, although he certainly won't win the MVP. Joker is getting that one without a doubt in my mind. Ant can ascend to the top 2-5 in vote getters though.

In order to do this I believe the team needs to win at least 55 games, he needs to continue playing how he has been on offense before these last 3 games, and he needs to become a GREAT defender.

I don't think Ant is going to rise to the level of play making that even SGA is at, but I do think his process this year has shown a lot of growth and I think it will start to pay dividends (even tho so far it statistically has not). I also think that his scoring will level out to him averaging near 30 a game or more- I trust his mid range development and it's paying off, his 3 point shot is still great, but what needs to improve is his shot selection. He needs to keep trusting Julius and playing off him better and setting himself up for C&S 3s.

All of that said, what will help Ant rise to the level of Joker, SGA, Gannis and Luka is not on offense but by being a bonafide, consistent near elite defender....that's a tall task, but more achievable for him this year I think than a leap up 2 or 3 tiers as a playmaker. I hope he can do it, but we'll see- the last two game were very discouraging.

RE question 2- well idk lol. This bench isnt as deep as OKC, Denver, or Houston and I don't see a pathway to that for them. However, if Ju and Jaden remain at this level, Rudy regains his consistency if not his elite status (I don't think he'll do that later, so the former is necessary) it's a good start. Dante has really settled into what his role is and I think that is a championship role player, so the question comes down to Naz and Shannon imo (I have no doubts about Clark maintaining this standard he has set for himself)

Has Naz lifted the fog and is now set to make another run for 6th man of the year? When Shannon is healthy can he become a valuable two way spark plug? I really don't know, but it's within the range of outcomes and what I think needs to happen if this team were do the unthinkable and win a championship this year, and especially to do so if Ant doesn't raise his level to being a top 5 vote getter (which is honestly what I think has to happen for this team, this year to pull off the upset)

[Q-is-here]

That is an awesome find Rap!
Obviously one can't concluded that just cause Wade come back from his slump hot, so too will Ant. However, it does remind us that players go through ups and downs in just their rhythm with the game and everything.
Ant also is known to have a tremendous work ethic and effort- I expect he is looking at the film and evaluating what the issues are. I don't know that he'll come to the correct conclusion, but I do believe he'll put in the effort to be better.

Back to the conversation at hand. I think this a great topic Q!
I think there are two questions worth answering here
1) can Ant play at an MVP level
2) can the roster around Ant become good enough to where he doesn't have to do that for them to win a ship.

For my own part I want to just look at these questions in terms of this year since the further into the future you go with this, the more theoretical it all is and it's really just a game of wish casting

RE question 1- I truly believe Ant can do that THIS year, although he certainly won't win the MVP. Joker is getting that one without a doubt in my mind. Ant can ascend to the top 2-5 in vote getters though.

In order to do this I believe the team needs to win at least 55 games, he needs to continue playing how he has been on offense before these last 3 games, and he needs to become a GREAT defender.

I don't think Ant is going to rise to the level of play making that even SGA is at, but I do think his process this year has shown a lot of growth and I think it will start to pay dividends (even tho so far it statistically has not). I also think that his scoring will level out to him averaging near 30 a game or more- I trust his mid range development and it's paying off, his 3 point shot is still great, but what needs to improve is his shot selection. He needs to keep trusting Julius and playing off him better and setting himself up for C&S 3s.

All of that said, what will help Ant rise to the level of Joker, SGA, Gannis and Luka is not on offense but by being a bonafide, consistent near elite defender....that's a tall task, but more achievable for him this year I think than a leap up 2 or 3 tiers as a playmaker. I hope he can do it, but we'll see- the last two game were very discouraging.

RE question 2- well idk lol. This bench isnt as deep as OKC, Denver, or Houston and I don't see a pathway to that for them. However, if Ju and Jaden remain at this level, Rudy regains his consistency if not his elite status (I don't think he'll do that later, so the former is necessary) it's a good start. Dante has really settled into what his role is and I think that is a championship role player, so the question comes down to Naz and Shannon imo (I have no doubts about Clark maintaining this standard he has set for himself)

Has Naz lifted the fog and is now set to make another run for 6th man of the year? When Shannon is healthy can he become a valuable two way spark plug? I really don't know, but it's within the range of outcomes and what I think needs to happen if this team were do the unthinkable and win a championship this year, and especially to do so if Ant doesn't raise his level to being a top 5 vote getter (which is honestly what I think has to happen for this team, this year to pull off the upset)

I'm skeptical on Ant. I think he can end the year as a top 10 NBA player, but I highly doubt he gets himself to Wemby, SGA or even Luka numbers. And I think the knock on Luka's defense is a little over-done, as while he isn't great at guarding guys one on one, he is an outstanding defensive rebounder and that's part of playing defense.

As for the rest of the roster, I really think in the absence of a trade, Shannon is the key guy. OKC had a hard time containing him last year. We need him to round into form and be a major factor heading into the post-season otherwise we just don't have the juice to go really deep IMO.

[AussieWolf3]

That is an awesome find Rap!
Obviously one can't concluded that just cause Wade come back from his slump hot, so too will Ant. However, it does remind us that players go through ups and downs in just their rhythm with the game and everything.
Ant also is known to have a tremendous work ethic and effort- I expect he is looking at the film and evaluating what the issues are. I don't know that he'll come to the correct conclusion, but I do believe he'll put in the effort to be better.

Back to the conversation at hand. I think this a great topic Q!
I think there are two questions worth answering here
1) can Ant play at an MVP level
2) can the roster around Ant become good enough to where he doesn't have to do that for them to win a ship.

For my own part I want to just look at these questions in terms of this year since the further into the future you go with this, the more theoretical it all is and it's really just a game of wish casting

RE question 1- I truly believe Ant can do that THIS year, although he certainly won't win the MVP. Joker is getting that one without a doubt in my mind. Ant can ascend to the top 2-5 in vote getters though.

In order to do this I believe the team needs to win at least 55 games, he needs to continue playing how he has been on offense before these last 3 games, and he needs to become a GREAT defender.

I don't think Ant is going to rise to the level of play making that even SGA is at, but I do think his process this year has shown a lot of growth and I think it will start to pay dividends (even tho so far it statistically has not). I also think that his scoring will level out to him averaging near 30 a game or more- I trust his mid range development and it's paying off, his 3 point shot is still great, but what needs to improve is his shot selection. He needs to keep trusting Julius and playing off him better and setting himself up for C&S 3s.

All of that said, what will help Ant rise to the level of Joker, SGA, Gannis and Luka is not on offense but by being a bonafide, consistent near elite defender....that's a tall task, but more achievable for him this year I think than a leap up 2 or 3 tiers as a playmaker. I hope he can do it, but we'll see- the last two game were very discouraging.

RE question 2- well idk lol. This bench isnt as deep as OKC, Denver, or Houston and I don't see a pathway to that for them. However, if Ju and Jaden remain at this level, Rudy regains his consistency if not his elite status (I don't think he'll do that later, so the former is necessary) it's a good start. Dante has really settled into what his role is and I think that is a championship role player, so the question comes down to Naz and Shannon imo (I have no doubts about Clark maintaining this standard he has set for himself)

Has Naz lifted the fog and is now set to make another run for 6th man of the year? When Shannon is healthy can he become a valuable two way spark plug? I really don't know, but it's within the range of outcomes and what I think needs to happen if this team were do the unthinkable and win a championship this year, and especially to do so if Ant doesn't raise his level to being a top 5 vote getter (which is honestly what I think has to happen for this team, this year to pull off the upset)

I'm skeptical on Ant. I think he can end the year as a top 10 NBA player, but I highly doubt he gets himself to Wemby, SGA or even Luka numbers. And I think the knock on Luka's defense is a little over-done, as while he isn't great at guarding guys one on one, he is an outstanding defensive rebounder and that's part of playing defense.

As for the rest of the roster, I really think in the absence of a trade, Shannon is the key guy. OKC had a hard time containing him last year. We need him to round into form and be a major factor heading into the post-season otherwise we just don't have the juice to go really deep IMO.

I think the skepticism is more than warranted and to be honest, as long as Ant treats games against the Wizard's of the league as off nights, his numbers will never stack up to those players. But if he flips a switch on those games and keeps showing up to the elite matchups I think he can get up to an efficient 28/5/5 season. If he does that, the wolves win 55 games or more, and he's defending at a really high level all season than he'll get a lot of MVP votes- maybe even though to break into the top 5. I'm really really skeptical of him doing that, but he has shown me this season that he can do it, cause I really like how he's playing offense this year.

I agree about Luka and his rebounding

And that exactly what I think about the team and Shannon. I think both him and Naz are the skeleton keys for this team being a real contender

Late edit: I just want to point out as well that I think Julius is going to maintain his level of play for the most part and if he does it's going to nearly impossible for Ant to put up MVP numbers, but the team will be better for it. But the two have shown a much better feel for each other this season and if Ant can keep leaning into that on offense he'll have his most efficient season yet.

[rapsuperstar31]

That is an awesome find Rap!
Obviously one can't concluded that just cause Wade come back from his slump hot, so too will Ant. However, it does remind us that players go through ups and downs in just their rhythm with the game and everything.
Ant also is known to have a tremendous work ethic and effort- I expect he is looking at the film and evaluating what the issues are. I don't know that he'll come to the correct conclusion, but I do believe he'll put in the effort to be better.

Back to the conversation at hand. I think this a great topic Q!
I think there are two questions worth answering here
1) can Ant play at an MVP level
2) can the roster around Ant become good enough to where he doesn't have to do that for them to win a ship.

For my own part I want to just look at these questions in terms of this year since the further into the future you go with this, the more theoretical it all is and it's really just a game of wish casting

RE question 1- I truly believe Ant can do that THIS year, although he certainly won't win the MVP. Joker is getting that one without a doubt in my mind. Ant can ascend to the top 2-5 in vote getters though.

In order to do this I believe the team needs to win at least 55 games, he needs to continue playing how he has been on offense before these last 3 games, and he needs to become a GREAT defender.

I don't think Ant is going to rise to the level of play making that even SGA is at, but I do think his process this year has shown a lot of growth and I think it will start to pay dividends (even tho so far it statistically has not). I also think that his scoring will level out to him averaging near 30 a game or more- I trust his mid range development and it's paying off, his 3 point shot is still great, but what needs to improve is his shot selection. He needs to keep trusting Julius and playing off him better and setting himself up for C&S 3s.

All of that said, what will help Ant rise to the level of Joker, SGA, Gannis and Luka is not on offense but by being a bonafide, consistent near elite defender....that's a tall task, but more achievable for him this year I think than a leap up 2 or 3 tiers as a playmaker. I hope he can do it, but we'll see- the last two game were very discouraging.

RE question 2- well idk lol. This bench isnt as deep as OKC, Denver, or Houston and I don't see a pathway to that for them. However, if Ju and Jaden remain at this level, Rudy regains his consistency if not his elite status (I don't think he'll do that later, so the former is necessary) it's a good start. Dante has really settled into what his role is and I think that is a championship role player, so the question comes down to Naz and Shannon imo (I have no doubts about Clark maintaining this standard he has set for himself)

Has Naz lifted the fog and is now set to make another run for 6th man of the year? When Shannon is healthy can he become a valuable two way spark plug? I really don't know, but it's within the range of outcomes and what I think needs to happen if this team were do the unthinkable and win a championship this year, and especially to do so if Ant doesn't raise his level to being a top 5 vote getter (which is honestly what I think has to happen for this team, this year to pull off the upset)

I'm skeptical on Ant. I think he can end the year as a top 10 NBA player, but I highly doubt he gets himself to Wemby, SGA or even Luka numbers. And I think the knock on Luka's defense is a little over-done, as while he isn't great at guarding guys one on one, he is an outstanding defensive rebounder and that's part of playing defense.

As for the rest of the roster, I really think in the absence of a trade, Shannon is the key guy. OKC had a hard time containing him last year. We need him to round into form and be a major factor heading into the post-season otherwise we just don't have the juice to go really deep IMO.

Yeah it's probably fare to say Ant won't finish in the top 5. Wemby will probably get into that top 5, even though he hasn't made the playoffs yet. Luka will probably be in the top 5 (if he plays enough games) even though he got smoked in the first round of the playoffs last year, has never finished on a top 2 team in the west standings, and needs to the perfect team built around him to go far in the playoffs. If Luka doesn't have a lob threat on his team, he isn't getting out of the first round. Giannis is in the top 5, yes he has championship, no he hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs since 21-22. Cade is right there in the top 5-7, same age as Ant, has made the playoffs once. SGA is the mvp, Ant won't touch him anytime soon, SGA was on one of the worst teams in the league at at 23 before getting both Chet and Jdub in the same draft and changing their trajectory. SGA also like Luka in Dallas has the perfect team built around him to space the floor. Joker is one of the best players in the game if not the best, Ant outplayed him two years ago in the playoffs. While Ant had a bad shooting night game 7, when Joker was huffing and puffing Ant was hitting huge shots and making big steals down the stretch. Durant is a an all time great, might even sniff top 5ish in voting with the way he's playing this year, Ant smoked him and sent his ass home in a sweep two years ago.

[FNG]

I don't think the question is whether or not Ant is a top 5 player, it's is he a top 10 player. Right now the answer is no...it's pretty easy to come up with 10 players who are playing better than Ant this season.

[rapsuperstar31]

I don't think the question is whether or not Ant is a top 5 player, it's is he a top 10 player. Right now the answer is no...it's pretty easy to come up with 10 players who are playing better than Ant this season.

Ant gravity alone is top 10. Every time Naz, Donte, Mike, Randle get a wide open three it's because other teams are focused on anyone but Ant to beat them. Whenever Randle drives to the hoop one one one, it's because defenses are doubling Ant. When a team is cocky enough to defend Ant 1-1 like Portland was with an excellent defender in Camara, Ant smoked them.