The Ball Effect

[Lipoli390]

We’re all focused naturally on the next move by the Wolves front office to shore up our front court. But I thought it was worth coming back to the potentially franchise-altering move the Wolves just make to acquire LaMelo Ball.

As everyone here knows, I had a very high opinion of Naz Reid’s game. I scoffed at the idea of trading him last summer and have always maintained that there’s considerably more upside in his game that can be unlocked with a larger role. He has a highly unique combination of skills - a rebounding, shot-blocking big who runs the floor and handles the ball like a guard. But I still like the LaMelo deal. As terrific as Naz is and will be in my view, LaMelo Ball is at another level. LaMelo is an elite PG who was rookie of the year his first NBA season and then made the all-star game his second season. The only things that have held Ball back from being regarded as a superstar like Ant are his two ankles - especially his right one. More on that in a moment. Not only is Ball an elite player, he plays a position of need and brings a skill set to that position that uniquely optimizes his teammates and will likely unlock another level in our star, Anthony Edwards.

The criticisms of the deal and of LaMelo Ball, aside from the durability issue, have been ridiculous. First of all, the draft assets we gave up were not huge. The pick swaps are meaningless, especially under the new lottery rules. The second round picks have some value but are not huge. The 2033 1st round pick is significant, but it’s only one pick and far down the road. So this was really a Naz for Melo swap and while reasonable people can disagree on who got the best of that deal, the hyperbolic criticism of the deal by some is silly. Yes, Ball can take some ill-advised shots and take unnecessary risks. And yes, he’s not a good defender and has shown inconsistent defensive effort. But aside from the fact all players have deficiencies and that those concerns are fixable in a 24 year old player, the bottom line is that even with those deficiencies LaMelo Ball’s production is elite and even more importantly he has a huge positive impact on his team.

Let’s look at the numbers, starting with his production last season:

2025-26 SEASON INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTION

* Assists Per Game (7.1 APG): 98th percentile. He orchestrated the offense at an elite rate, finishing 9th overall in the NBA.

* Points Per Game (20.1 PPG): 94th percentile. Though playing a secondary scoring role next to Brandon Miller, his volume remained in the top tier.

* Steals Per Game (1.2 SPG): 82nd percentile. He leveraged his size and length as a highly effective, high-disruption perimeter defender.

* Three-Point Shooting Percentage (36.8%): 61st percentile. While his efficiency was near league-average, his volume was immense, finishing 2nd in the entire NBA with 272 total made triples. Playing with Ant I would expect Ball’s volume to go down and his percentage to go up.

* Rebounds Per Game (4.8 RPG): Ranked #6 among all point guards in rebounds per game. His career rebounding is higher.

* Free Throw Percentage (89.9%): Ranked #3 in the League, trailing only Cam Spencer (94.0%) and Stephen Curry (92.2%).

Now let’s look at his advanced metrics and see how he impacted his team last season:

2025-26 SEASON ADVANCED METRICS/TEAM IMPACT

* Net Offensive Rating Differential (+11.6): 99th percentile. When Ball was on the floor, Charlotte's offensive rating was a staggering 126.1, collapsing to 110.6 when he sat on the bench. He had essentially the same impact on his teammates offensively as Rudy had on the Wolves defensively.

* Net Combined Offensive/Defensive Rating (+6.3 differential): 95th percentile. His heavy defensive burden (117.6 on-court defensive rating) slightly lowered his total net swing, but his elite offensive lift still anchored him firmly as a top-20 net impact player in the league. Here’s how that net compares to some of the League’s top players: Jokic (+17.1), SGA (+9.1), Ant (+3.2), Brunson (-3.3).

If LaMelo were a 30 year old veteran, I would not have made this deal because it would be clear he’s not going to improve and will soon begin to decline as Naz continues to get better with a long horizon in his prime. But Ball is turning 25 in August and that means there’s still a lot of potential improvement and upside to tap. The question, of course, is whether he can stay on the court and give us 30 minutes per game for 70+ games as he did last season. I think he can, but questions about his durability are legitimate. So let’s unpack the durability questions.

DURABILITY

Melo has played in 70+ games only two of his six seasons. To be fair, his first season was shortened by Covid. He actually missed 20 games that season, which would translate to playing 62 games in a full season. The important point is that other than a broken wrist, which I consider a one-off, his durability has resolved entirely around his ankles. As we know from Steph Curry’s career, early career ankle problems are fixable and if last season is any indication, Ball’s issues might have already been fixed. Time will tell.

[Q-is-here]

I think the goal should be Top 3 offense and Top 12 defense and then hopefully tighten up the defense even more in the playoffs. But can't have a backcourt of Ball and Ant and not expect to be among the elite offenses in the NBA given the "Ball Effect", as you coin it here Lip. Likewise, it's tough seeing us being a top 8 defense.

[AussieWolf3]

Maybe I'm just feeling overly optimistic right now, and I'm in for a rude awakening, but I'm having a hard time understanding why a team that finished 8th in defensive rating can't perform in that same range this year after dropping two inferior defenders in Randle and Naz.

Ball isnt a good defender; his of/off, DDPM and DRtGs ect are basically the same as Randle's while being significantly more impactful offensively.

I sound like a broken record at this point but I'm complete confused with how insistent the Wolves zeitgeist is about this team still needing a starting PF.

Here are the risk factors imo for the defense:

- Ant isn't interested in getting to 24' levels of defense or better individually. If that's the case then fucking trade him. I'm serious, if he refuses to even sniff his potential on defense now that he has Randle out of the way and a ball handler next to him, then he ain't it and you trade him
- Rudy falls off the age cliff. I don't think this will happen. Tangentially if Joan isnt ready to play back up minutes that's a big problem.
- Ayo or whoever starts at SF isn't up to task at the point of attack, thus relegating Jaden back to that assignment. This is unknown, and it would be frustrating were it to be the case. I'm optimistic about Ayo and the rest of the wings to pick up the slack and allow Jaden to have a far greater impact in the frontcourt. If he's back as a POA defender, this team's ceiling is drastically shrunk.
- a competent defensive 4/5 isn't signed. Seriously just go get Jonathan Issac

[Q-is-here]

Maybe I'm just feeling overly optimistic right now, and I'm in for a rude awakening, but I'm having a hard time understanding why a team that finished 8th in defensive rating can't perform in that same range this year after dropping two inferior defenders in Randle and Naz.

Ball isnt a good defender; his of/off, DDPM and DRtGs ect are basically the same as Randle's while being significantly more impactful offensively.

I sound like a broken record at this point but I'm complete confused with how insistent the Wolves zeitgeist is about this team still needing a starting PF.

Here are the risk factors imo for the defense:

- Ant isn't interested in getting to 24' levels of defense or better individually. If that's the case then fucking trade him. I'm serious, if he refuses to even sniff his potential on defense now that he has Randle out of the way and a ball handler next to him, then he ain't it and you trade him
- Rudy falls off the age cliff. I don't think this will happen. Tangentially if Joan isnt ready to play back up minutes that's a big problem.
- Ayo or whoever starts at SF isn't up to task at the point of attack, thus relegating Jaden back to that assignment. This is unknown, and it would be frustrating were it to be the case. I'm optimistic about Ayo and the rest of the wings to pick up the slack and allow Jaden to have a far greater impact in the frontcourt. If he's back as a POA defender, this team's ceiling is drastically shrunk.
- a competent defensive 4/5 isn't signed. Seriously just go get Jonathan Issac

- Ball is weaker defensively than DDV. Not that DDV was a stopper, but he worked his ass off and did a lot of hustle stuff no one else did in our starting lineup. But he might be back by the playoffs!

- Rudy is a year older and will likely show some deterioration in his defense even if it's still overall very good.

- Beringer should be a plus defensively on paper, but there are concerns with his inexperience, poor defensive rebounding numbers, and being undisciplined by leaving his feet and trying to block everything. I actually think he's more advanced offensively than he is defensively based on what I saw last year. There is no guarantee he is more effective than Naz was on that end.

- This is just me, but I'd rather the Wolves prioritize 3-pt shooting as they look for forward depth, with rebounding and defense being secondary. We simply cannot play two non-shooters anymore except in very short and specific circumstances. It would be awesome if you could get the total package of a 3&D&Reb forward, but Dean Wade is the closest I can come up with that is even remotely realistic (but still remote).

[Lipoli390]

Maybe I'm just feeling overly optimistic right now, and I'm in for a rude awakening, but I'm having a hard time understanding why a team that finished 8th in defensive rating can't perform in that same range this year after dropping two inferior defenders in Randle and Naz.

Ball isnt a good defender; his of/off, DDPM and DRtGs ect are basically the same as Randle's while being significantly more impactful offensively.

I sound like a broken record at this point but I'm complete confused with how insistent the Wolves zeitgeist is about this team still needing a starting PF.

Here are the risk factors imo for the defense:

- Ant isn't interested in getting to 24' levels of defense or better individually. If that's the case then fucking trade him. I'm serious, if he refuses to even sniff his potential on defense now that he has Randle out of the way and a ball handler next to him, then he ain't it and you trade him
- Rudy falls off the age cliff. I don't think this will happen. Tangentially if Joan isnt ready to play back up minutes that's a big problem.
- Ayo or whoever starts at SF isn't up to task at the point of attack, thus relegating Jaden back to that assignment. This is unknown, and it would be frustrating were it to be the case. I'm optimistic about Ayo and the rest of the wings to pick up the slack and allow Jaden to have a far greater impact in the frontcourt. If he's back as a POA defender, this team's ceiling is drastically shrunk.
- a competent defensive 4/5 isn't signed. Seriously just go get Jonathan Issac

- Ball is weaker defensively than DDV. Not that DDV was a stopper, but he worked his ass off and did a lot of hustle stuff no one else did in our starting lineup. But he might be back by the playoffs!

- Rudy is a year older and will likely show some deterioration in his defense even if it's still overall very good.

- Beringer should be a plus defensively on paper, but there are concerns with his inexperience, poor defensive rebounding numbers, and being undisciplined by leaving his feet and trying to block everything. I actually think he's more advanced offensively than he is defensively based on what I saw last year. There is no guarantee he is more effective than Naz was on that end.

- This is just me, but I'd rather the Wolves prioritize 3-pt shooting as they look for forward depth, with rebounding and defense being secondary. We simply cannot play two non-shooters anymore except in very short and specific circumstances. It would be awesome if you could get the total package of a 3&D&Reb forward, but Dean Wade is the closest I can come up with that is even remotely realistic (but still remote).

I’d put Jock Landale right there with Dean wade as a perimeter shooting threat at the PF position. Wade shot 36.2% from behind the arc on 3.3 attempts last season while Landale shot 39% on 2.8 attempts. Landale is also bigger and a better rebounder than Wade. I would think we could sign Landale at the vet minimum with the understanding that he’s going to be a major rotational piece in a potential championship contender. I keep coming back to rebounding because we’re losing a lot of rebounding with the departure of Randle and Naz. If Rudy declines a little because of age, that means a slight decline in his rebounding. LaMelo Ball and others won’t be enough to pick up the slack. Note that Landale averaged 7.7 rebounds on a per 30-minute basis. That’s significantly better than Wade’s 5.6 and on par with Jeremy Sochan.

I’d sign Landale and Sochan at the vet minimum and call it a day.

Dean Wade - Unrestricted Free Agent ($6.6M)
- 29 yrs, 6’9/228
- 22.3m, 5.8p, 4.2r, 44%, 36.2%/3.3, 70%
- 30m/5.6 rebounds

Jock Landale - Unrestricted Free Agent ($2.3M)
- 30 years, 6’11, 255
- 22m, 10.6p, 5.7r, 51.6%, 39%/2.8, 54.6%
- 30m/7.7 rebounds

[Lipoli390]

Ignore my last post about Jock Landale. I just delved more thoroughly into his defense. He’s moving down on my list.

[Wolvesfan21]

Maybe I'm just feeling overly optimistic right now, and I'm in for a rude awakening, but I'm having a hard time understanding why a team that finished 8th in defensive rating can't perform in that same range this year after dropping two inferior defenders in Randle and Naz.

Ball isnt a good defender; his of/off, DDPM and DRtGs ect are basically the same as Randle's while being significantly more impactful offensively.

I sound like a broken record at this point but I'm complete confused with how insistent the Wolves zeitgeist is about this team still needing a starting PF.

Here are the risk factors imo for the defense:

- Ant isn't interested in getting to 24' levels of defense or better individually. If that's the case then fucking trade him. I'm serious, if he refuses to even sniff his potential on defense now that he has Randle out of the way and a ball handler next to him, then he ain't it and you trade him
- Rudy falls off the age cliff. I don't think this will happen. Tangentially if Joan isnt ready to play back up minutes that's a big problem.
- Ayo or whoever starts at SF isn't up to task at the point of attack, thus relegating Jaden back to that assignment. This is unknown, and it would be frustrating were it to be the case. I'm optimistic about Ayo and the rest of the wings to pick up the slack and allow Jaden to have a far greater impact in the frontcourt. If he's back as a POA defender, this team's ceiling is drastically shrunk.
- a competent defensive 4/5 isn't signed. Seriously just go get Jonathan Issac

- Ball is weaker defensively than DDV. Not that DDV was a stopper, but he worked his ass off and did a lot of hustle stuff no one else did in our starting lineup. But he might be back by the playoffs!

- Rudy is a year older and will likely show some deterioration in his defense even if it's still overall very good.

- Beringer should be a plus defensively on paper, but there are concerns with his inexperience, poor defensive rebounding numbers, and being undisciplined by leaving his feet and trying to block everything. I actually think he's more advanced offensively than he is defensively based on what I saw last year. There is no guarantee he is more effective than Naz was on that end.

- This is just me, but I'd rather the Wolves prioritize 3-pt shooting as they look for forward depth, with rebounding and defense being secondary. We simply cannot play two non-shooters anymore except in very short and specific circumstances. It would be awesome if you could get the total package of a 3&D&Reb forward, but Dean Wade is the closest I can come up with that is even remotely realistic (but still remote).

I think the same regarding the next starting or backup PF addition. 3 point shooting is mandatory, defense is secondary but still important, ball handling and passing can be the weakness ideally in said player. That player must be able to shoot at least avg and will get tons of good looks playing with Ant and Melo. If that player can't shoot, then he becomes unplayable. We can't have a Vando esq type playing with Ant and Melo and Rudy/Joan (both likely non shooters). To maximize Ant and Melo you really need shooters.

[Wolvesfan21]

What are your guys thoughts on Balls minutes? Last year to obviously try and keep him healthy he ended up playing just 28 minutes a game. But he did play 72 games too.

I think that for the regular season, I'd take that. I'd shoot for that 28-30 most nights. Maybe going into the 34+ range in OT games.

I think the goal should be to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Same for Ant. I'd play Ant a few less minutes per game as well compared to previous years during the regular season. Playoffs, then up it back up.

Both players need to try and limit the overall wear and tear, which then also limits the risk for in game injuries a bit more too.

[AussieWolf3]

What are your guys thoughts on Balls minutes? Last year to obviously try and keep him healthy he ended up playing just 28 minutes a game. But he did play 72 games too.

I think that for the regular season, I'd take that. I'd shoot for that 28-30 most nights. Maybe going into the 34+ range in OT games.

I think the goal should be to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Same for Ant. I'd play Ant a few less minutes per game as well compared to previous years during the regular season. Playoffs, then up it back up.

Both players need to try and limit the overall wear and tear, which then also limits the risk for in game injuries a bit more too.

I'm all for this. It's one of the reasons I'm not keen to lose ball handlers

[DNatagal]

What are your guys thoughts on Balls minutes? Last year to obviously try and keep him healthy he ended up playing just 28 minutes a game. But he did play 72 games too.

I think that for the regular season, I'd take that. I'd shoot for that 28-30 most nights. Maybe going into the 34+ range in OT games.

I think the goal should be to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Same for Ant. I'd play Ant a few less minutes per game as well compared to previous years during the regular season. Playoffs, then up it back up.

Both players need to try and limit the overall wear and tear, which then also limits the risk for in game injuries a bit more too.

This is where Finch needs to play the 9-12 guys more than in the past, especially before the all-star break. The bench needs to be used at a much higher rate and then can taper off. Talk to Ant and tell him he gets 8 minutes per quarter and to go 100% on both ends of the floor. If he needs a rest, sub him out for 2 minutes. He needs to up his regular season intensity to get the entire team to play at a high level right away. Flicking the switch worked until it didn't.