The Ball Effect
Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2026 9:37 am
We’re all focused naturally on the next move by the Wolves front office to shore up our front court. But I thought it was worth coming back to the potentially franchise-altering move the Wolves just make to acquire LaMelo Ball.
As everyone here knows, I had a very high opinion of Naz Reid’s game. I scoffed at the idea of trading him last summer and have always maintained that there’s considerably more upside in his game that can be unlocked with a larger role. He has a highly unique combination of skills - a rebounding, shot-blocking big who runs the floor and handles the ball like a guard. But I still like the LaMelo deal. As terrific as Naz is and will be in my view, LaMelo Ball is at another level. LaMelo is an elite PG who was rookie of the year his first NBA season and then made the all-star game his second season. The only things that have held Ball back from being regarded as a superstar like Ant are his two ankles - especially his right one. More on that in a moment. Not only is Ball an elite player, he plays a position of need and brings a skill set to that position that uniquely optimizes his teammates and will likely unlock another level in our star, Anthony Edwards.
The criticisms of the deal and of LaMelo Ball, aside from the durability issue, have been ridiculous. First of all, the draft assets we gave up were not huge. The pick swaps are meaningless, especially under the new lottery rules. The second round picks have some value but are not huge. The 2033 1st round pick is significant, but it’s only one pick and far down the road. So this was really a Naz for Melo swap and while reasonable people can disagree on who got the best of that deal, the hyperbolic criticism of the deal by some is silly. Yes, Ball can take some ill-advised shots and take unnecessary risks. And yes, he’s not a good defender and has shown inconsistent defensive effort. But aside from the fact all players have deficiencies and that those concerns are fixable in a 24 year old player, the bottom line is that even with those deficiencies LaMelo Ball’s production is elite and even more importantly he has a huge positive impact on his team.
Let’s look at the numbers, starting with his production last season:
2025-26 SEASON INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTION
* Assists Per Game (7.1 APG): 98th percentile. He orchestrated the offense at an elite rate, finishing 9th overall in the NBA.
* Points Per Game (20.1 PPG): 94th percentile. Though playing a secondary scoring role next to Brandon Miller, his volume remained in the top tier.
* Steals Per Game (1.2 SPG): 82nd percentile. He leveraged his size and length as a highly effective, high-disruption perimeter defender.
* Three-Point Shooting Percentage (36.8%): 61st percentile. While his efficiency was near league-average, his volume was immense, finishing 2nd in the entire NBA with 272 total made triples. Playing with Ant I would expect Ball’s volume to go down and his percentage to go up.
* Rebounds Per Game (4.8 RPG): Ranked #6 among all point guards in rebounds per game. His career rebounding is higher.
* Free Throw Percentage (89.9%): Ranked #3 in the League, trailing only Cam Spencer (94.0%) and Stephen Curry (92.2%).
Now let’s look at his advanced metrics and see how he impacted his team last season:
2025-26 SEASON ADVANCED METRICS/TEAM IMPACT
* Net Offensive Rating Differential (+11.6): 99th percentile. When Ball was on the floor, Charlotte's offensive rating was a staggering 126.1, collapsing to 110.6 when he sat on the bench. He had essentially the same impact on his teammates offensively as Rudy had on the Wolves defensively.
* Net Combined Offensive/Defensive Rating (+6.3 differential): 95th percentile. His heavy defensive burden (117.6 on-court defensive rating) slightly lowered his total net swing, but his elite offensive lift still anchored him firmly as a top-20 net impact player in the league. Here’s how that net compares to some of the League’s top players: Jokic (+17.1), SGA (+9.1), Ant (+3.2), Brunson (-3.3).
If LaMelo were a 30 year old veteran, I would not have made this deal because it would be clear he’s not going to improve and will soon begin to decline as Naz continues to get better with a long horizon in his prime. But Ball is turning 25 in August and that means there’s still a lot of potential improvement and upside to tap. The question, of course, is whether he can stay on the court and give us 30 minutes per game for 70+ games as he did last season. I think he can, but questions about his durability are legitimate. So let’s unpack the durability questions.
DURABILITY
Melo has played in 70+ games only two of his six seasons. To be fair, his first season was shortened by Covid. He actually missed 20 games that season, which would translate to playing 62 games in a full season. The important point is that other than a broken wrist, which I consider a one-off, his durability has resolved entirely around his ankles. As we know from Steph Curry’s career, early career ankle problems are fixable and if last season is any indication, Ball’s issues might have already been fixed. Time will tell.
As everyone here knows, I had a very high opinion of Naz Reid’s game. I scoffed at the idea of trading him last summer and have always maintained that there’s considerably more upside in his game that can be unlocked with a larger role. He has a highly unique combination of skills - a rebounding, shot-blocking big who runs the floor and handles the ball like a guard. But I still like the LaMelo deal. As terrific as Naz is and will be in my view, LaMelo Ball is at another level. LaMelo is an elite PG who was rookie of the year his first NBA season and then made the all-star game his second season. The only things that have held Ball back from being regarded as a superstar like Ant are his two ankles - especially his right one. More on that in a moment. Not only is Ball an elite player, he plays a position of need and brings a skill set to that position that uniquely optimizes his teammates and will likely unlock another level in our star, Anthony Edwards.
The criticisms of the deal and of LaMelo Ball, aside from the durability issue, have been ridiculous. First of all, the draft assets we gave up were not huge. The pick swaps are meaningless, especially under the new lottery rules. The second round picks have some value but are not huge. The 2033 1st round pick is significant, but it’s only one pick and far down the road. So this was really a Naz for Melo swap and while reasonable people can disagree on who got the best of that deal, the hyperbolic criticism of the deal by some is silly. Yes, Ball can take some ill-advised shots and take unnecessary risks. And yes, he’s not a good defender and has shown inconsistent defensive effort. But aside from the fact all players have deficiencies and that those concerns are fixable in a 24 year old player, the bottom line is that even with those deficiencies LaMelo Ball’s production is elite and even more importantly he has a huge positive impact on his team.
Let’s look at the numbers, starting with his production last season:
2025-26 SEASON INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTION
* Assists Per Game (7.1 APG): 98th percentile. He orchestrated the offense at an elite rate, finishing 9th overall in the NBA.
* Points Per Game (20.1 PPG): 94th percentile. Though playing a secondary scoring role next to Brandon Miller, his volume remained in the top tier.
* Steals Per Game (1.2 SPG): 82nd percentile. He leveraged his size and length as a highly effective, high-disruption perimeter defender.
* Three-Point Shooting Percentage (36.8%): 61st percentile. While his efficiency was near league-average, his volume was immense, finishing 2nd in the entire NBA with 272 total made triples. Playing with Ant I would expect Ball’s volume to go down and his percentage to go up.
* Rebounds Per Game (4.8 RPG): Ranked #6 among all point guards in rebounds per game. His career rebounding is higher.
* Free Throw Percentage (89.9%): Ranked #3 in the League, trailing only Cam Spencer (94.0%) and Stephen Curry (92.2%).
Now let’s look at his advanced metrics and see how he impacted his team last season:
2025-26 SEASON ADVANCED METRICS/TEAM IMPACT
* Net Offensive Rating Differential (+11.6): 99th percentile. When Ball was on the floor, Charlotte's offensive rating was a staggering 126.1, collapsing to 110.6 when he sat on the bench. He had essentially the same impact on his teammates offensively as Rudy had on the Wolves defensively.
* Net Combined Offensive/Defensive Rating (+6.3 differential): 95th percentile. His heavy defensive burden (117.6 on-court defensive rating) slightly lowered his total net swing, but his elite offensive lift still anchored him firmly as a top-20 net impact player in the league. Here’s how that net compares to some of the League’s top players: Jokic (+17.1), SGA (+9.1), Ant (+3.2), Brunson (-3.3).
If LaMelo were a 30 year old veteran, I would not have made this deal because it would be clear he’s not going to improve and will soon begin to decline as Naz continues to get better with a long horizon in his prime. But Ball is turning 25 in August and that means there’s still a lot of potential improvement and upside to tap. The question, of course, is whether he can stay on the court and give us 30 minutes per game for 70+ games as he did last season. I think he can, but questions about his durability are legitimate. So let’s unpack the durability questions.
DURABILITY
Melo has played in 70+ games only two of his six seasons. To be fair, his first season was shortened by Covid. He actually missed 20 games that season, which would translate to playing 62 games in a full season. The important point is that other than a broken wrist, which I consider a one-off, his durability has resolved entirely around his ankles. As we know from Steph Curry’s career, early career ankle problems are fixable and if last season is any indication, Ball’s issues might have already been fixed. Time will tell.
