LeBron Sweepstakes

[Lipoli390]

I thought the speculation about where LeBron ends up and his chances of ending up in Minnesota was worthy of its own thread. The teams we've heard about as possible destinations include Golden State, Miami, Cleveland, San Antonio and Minnesota. The oddsmakers and pundits have Golden State at the top of the list. Here's my take.

First, Golden State makes no sense if LeBron truly has championship contention as a high priority even if it's not his top priority. LeBron is too smart to delude himself into believing he'd have a legitimate chance at a championship playing with Steph and Draymond in Golden State. The equation might change if Golden State can somehow acquire Anthony Davis but that looks highly unlikely and even if it happened I'd still question whether Golden State is a legitimate championship contender, especially considering the strength of the Western Conference. But if winning is not a high priority for LeBron, in spite of what we're hearing from his agent, then I see him going to Golden State for one last season with his friends and contemporaries in sunny California filming a documentary of LeBron, Steph and Draymond closing out their careers.

Second, if winning a championship is a high priority but not LeBron's top priority then I think he'll end up in Cleveland or Miami. Both Cleveland and Miami have a chance of at least getting to the NBA Finals given the less then stellar strength of the Eastern Conference. Boston is weaker after the Jaylen Brown deal. The Sixers are stronger, but not a juggernaut and there's always a big question mark in Philly because of Embiid's durability issues. The Knicks are the defending champions but I don't see them as a prohibitive favorite to win the East. Cleveland and Miami both have rosters that are good enough to win the East in my view. Going to Cleveland gives LeBron a legitimate chance to win a title but would also give him a great narrative to close his career - going home one last time. Going to Miami would also give LeBron a chance to win while giving him a narrative he might find attractive - returning to South Beach to complete unfinished business after his surprising early departure from Miami when he dumped Pat Riley. Then of course, Miami would give LeBron a tropical climate and the cache of South Beach. All of that plus playing with Giannis, repairing the relationship with icon Pat Riley would seem to work well for LeBron's final season documentary.

Third, if winning a championship is LeBron's top priority then I think LeBron will end up in Minnesota. If winning a championship is truly LeBron's top priority, then I think he'll want to go to a team that has a recent track record of post-season success without him and the chance to win 2 championships to match MJ's 6 rings. Because the Wolves' core is young and likely still improving, the Wolves appear to provide LeBron with his best chance at winning two more rings in what would like be his final two seasons. Admittedly, even if LeBron's top priority is contending for a championship, there's no doubt it's not his only priority. He'll definitely want a compelling narrative for his documentary and legacy. The Wolves don't have Cleveland's "returning home" narrative or Miami's "unfinished business" "Pat Riley divorce" drama and tropical climate. But the Wolves have three narratives that should be uniquely appealing to LeBron: (1) bringing a championship to a franchise that has never had one; (2) becoming the only player in NBA history to win championships with four different teams; and (3) passing the torch to a young superstar he likes and admires - namely Anthony Edwards. LeBron might also like the idea of doing what the pundits least expect.

As I see it, the Wolves should have a good chance of landing LeBron and I suspect TC does too. But I don't think LeBron will come here because I don't believe that winning a championship is LeBron's top priority. The fact that LeBron's team is planning to film the entire season for a documentary is telling. LeBron is all about his brand and he'll want the most compelling drama for his documentary. A home town return to Cleveland strikes me as far more compelling theater than coming to the Wolves. A return to Miami after the bitter divorce from Pat Riley, the South Beach cache and playing with Giannis strikes me as more dramatic and more compelling theater than playing in Minnesota for the Wolves. Then of course, there's the Miami climate and the chance to play golf every day when not on the road.

So I think it comes down to Cleveland, Miami and Minnesota. And I think the choice will tell us a lot about LeBron. I predict he'll choose Miami and that will confirm my low option of him. The only question is whether Pat will say yes. LeBron will raise his stature in my mind (not that it matters) if he chooses Cleveland or Minnesota. It will be a while before we know because LeBron loves to string out these dramas to stay in the spotlight and milk them for all they can give. Stay tuned.

[Wolvesfan21]

I actually think the Doc is maybe even more of a priority to him then winning. If winning was it then MN or SA would be on top of the list. I thought I heard that SA was out on him after signing / resigning guys. Who knows.

The story of going to GSW or Cavs would sell more then MN, lets face it. Though a MN doc could be intriguing as well as we got Ant and Melo. I wonder if Ant would be on board with the entire show, the Doc, the LeBron farewell tour, all that noise and extra attention. He might, but it obviously could take or add shine to him, however he sees that and in the past he said he didn't care about being the face of the league, not wanting that smoke even. He doesn't seem like a guy that really seeks out the shine that much, yet he's in movies and commercials. SO IDK.

As I said in the other thread we're probably 5% or less IMO. It's not zero so it's worth a discussion. I still would be pretty surprised if he chose here and Ant also chose him to be here. Because both of those matter.

[Lipoli390]

I actually think the Doc is maybe even more of a priority to him then winning. If winning was it then MN or SA would be on top of the list. I thought I heard that SA was out on him after signing / resigning guys. Who knows.

The story of going to GSW or Cavs would sell more then MN, lets face it. Though a MN doc could be intriguing as well as we got Ant and Melo. I wonder if Ant would be on board with the entire show, the Doc, the LeBron farewell tour, all that noise and extra attention. He might, but it obviously could take or add shine to him, however he sees that and in the past he said he didn't care about being the face of the league, not wanting that smoke even. He doesn't seem like a guy that really seeks out the shine that much, yet he's in movies and commercials. SO IDK.

As I said in the other thread we're probably 5% or less IMO. It's not zero so it's worth a discussion. I still would be pretty surprised if he chose here and Ant also chose him to be here. Because both of those matter.

I agree, Wolvesfan. I think the documentary, the drama, matters more to LeBron than winning. If he still cares about winning, second to the documentary/drama/narrative for his legacy, then it will be Cleveland or Miami. If winning is a truly low priority for LeBron, then it could be Golden State. The Warriors are the team he'd go to where he mainly wants to have fun playing with his friends. Cleveland and Miami would give LeBron the best dramatic narratives for his documentary.

[rapsuperstar31]

If he goes to Golden State it will go the way of any "super" old team, they won't win anything. Cleveland makes the most sense just going back home to finish his career. He won't go to San Antonio, because there may be a day 12+ years from now when Wemby passes Lebron on the GOAT list that currently only has Jordan and Lebron on it. Lebron doesn't want to team up with Wemby and get him his first ring and start his march towards Lebron's GOAT list. Minnesota makes the most sense beyond Cleveland. Ant the great American hope for the face of the league. (not from Europe or Canada like Wemby, SGA, Luka, Giannis,Joker etc.) Lebron wining one more ring on his 4th team and the first in Timberwolves history would go a long way on Lebron's legacy. That and we have a clear starting spot for him after trading Randle and Naz.

[FNG]

Yeah, I agree that Minnesota makes a lot of sense for LeBron. And he still has a enough in the tank that adding him to our starting lineup would put us solidly in the championship conversation. You have to wonder if TC is holding off on any major PF move in hopes he can land him. I hope not, because I still see this as a remote possibility, and as some of you have said, this is likely top drag out for weeks.

I'm still thinking it will be the Warriors. I agree with Lip that this aging team would not win a championship, but I don't think James looks at it that way. He really wants to play with his buddies, and he'd only be an hour away from his family on his jet. I get the Cleveland angle also, but I wonder how much pull that city really has for an Akron guy.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Golden State's old man tour has legs.
The 3rd time playing (and retiring) for his hometown team has legs.
The return to Miami has legs.

Filming a year-long documentary while in a "boring" NBA city (where James can't golf for 7 months of the year) for a largely overlooked franchise doesn't make much sense to me.

[rapsuperstar31]

Golden State's old man tour has legs.
The 3rd time playing (and retiring) for his hometown team has legs.
The return to Miami has legs.

Filming a year-long documentary while in a "boring" NBA city (where James can't golf for 7 months of the year) for a largely overlooked franchise doesn't make much sense to me.

You're probably right, unless Arod can get to work building an indoor golf facility for Lebron quickly. When Netflix's starting 5 came out, Ant was at the time considered the best portion of that and the breakout star. Fans loved his section of the documentary. Maybe that alone means Lebron doesn't want to share the spotlight on his documentary.

[thedoper]

I wonder how much patience Lebron would have for Rudy dropping passes from him?

[Wolvesfan21]

Golden State's old man tour has legs.
The 3rd time playing (and retiring) for his hometown team has legs.
The return to Miami has legs.

Filming a year-long documentary while in a "boring" NBA city (where James can't golf for 7 months of the year) for a largely overlooked franchise doesn't make much sense to me.

Steph is really really good at golf too, he and James can play together. Though obviously I don't think James is a good golfer looking at him. But yeah on Bryson D's youtube channel break 50, Steph was on it and outdriving Bryson several times. It was insane to see and a great watch for any BB and golf fan. Just a nice crossover.

[Wolvesfan21]

I wonder how much patience Lebron would have for Rudy dropping passes from him?

I actually think some of it is on the passers too. Big guys can't catch low passes in general well, like bounce passes down at their knees or nuts. Throw it up high and he's fine. Rudy probably would never admit it, but you got to be super accurate and in the right spots. LeBron can do that too, along with Melo. Which makes the fit even better. It makes so much sense basketball wise. Not sure story or city or franchise wise. I do think that is ultimately LeBrons priority.