Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

[AussieWolf3]

I thought it would interesting to analyze and diagnose the different lineup combinations that are currently present for this team, how they solve certain problems and matchups and what problems they'll face that they are unable to solve.

I'd like to get out of the stagnant loop discussing certain players capabilities to play or not play certain positions. And I've had just about enough hyper analyzing heights and weights of grown men --- I'm as guilty as anybody.

I think an interesting place to start is with non consensus, and the certainly the one that challenges my instincts.

LaMelo
Ant
Jaden
Lyles
Rudy

Answer however you'd like, but I will be approaching the inquiry by asking:

- what is the rest of the rotation, and how flexible is this rotation?
- what are the goals for this lineup?
- what problems does this lineup solve?
- what problem will it struggle to solve?
- is it a championship roster/lineup?
- how does it become one?

[AussieWolf3]

LaMelo, Ant, Jaden, Trey, Rudy

what does the rest of the rotation look like?
Any lineup that isn't starting Ayo has him first off the bench for LaMelo imo, I'm not sure when, probably 6 minutes into the first and 3 quarter.
The 7th guy will be interesting, and I wonder if we're already seeing Finch challenged to be pretty dynamic with his rotations. Against smaller lineups, it could be TJ in for Trey and Jaden slides down to the 4. Or maybe Rudy is first down for Joan so that he is playing as many minutes as possible with the bigger Lyles as well as Jaden. Again this could be flexible, but you run the risk of folks never really establishing a rhythm. For brevity I'll but it like this
Ayo
Green
Joan
Shannon
Hard to see anything set after the 9th man. It's tough to get all these guys out there tho; Bones, Clark, Evans?

what are the goals
Well it's a big starting 5. We've all spend so much time discussing size at power forward that we keep forgetting that Ant, Ball, and Rudy are all big for their position and if Jaden is playing at the 3 then so is he. So this lineup keeps the familiar, "were bigger and more athletic" theme. I'm not sure how Lyles plays in transition, but I presume this would be a slower paced lineup than one that starts Green or Ayo.

What problems does this lineup solve
I'm skeptical of starting Lyles. It makes sense on paper to start a proper power forward, however, I remember reading up on Lyles a while ago and combing through an interview with a Kings beat writer who was very complimentary of Trey but was very careful to say that he is still a limited player and if he's more than just a spot starter you are gonna run into problems. I find that concerning, and while he might have great size he's never been regarded as anything better than average defensively, still having a body that can put up resistance will be handy and you are also starting with your best rebounders which is no small thing.
Jaden at the 3 means he's maintaining his role as a ball stopper, which is how he's made a name for himself and something in which he's best on the team for.
There is less defensive burden on Ant in this lineup, which I suppose isn't a bad thing.
Everyone but Rudy can shoot and you can easily stagger the rotation so that you always have 4 shooters, although Clark would throw a wrench in that if he doesn't develop.

what problem will it struggle to solve?
Is Lyles actually a good defender? Can he step in behind Rudy and protect the rim, will Rudy even trust him? He's big, but is he mobile enough to keep up with the many athletic PFs in the league? Giannis, Zion, Randle and the like still seem like a problem to me

Jaden is the ball stopper here, which will certainly cap his offense and I hate that. It's dirty imo to keep making this kid chase ball handlers through screens, and to be honest I think he's an overrated POA defender as it is. But here's the other problem.... Who's the backup 4? Jaden?... Love?

Theoretically this one has a higher floor on defense, but I'm not convinced and Lyles lowers the ceiling on offense. The more I think about it the less competitive it feels.

is it a championship roster?
If Lyles is getting starting minutes or even 25 plus, then no. I think that's a big problem and Jaden at the POA limits the entire teams ceiling cause they'll need his offense imo and they'll need with him playing power forward. It's not talked about enough but Jaden is a good playmaker close to the basket because of his height, and he looks for Rudy. Less running and chasing keeps his legs fresher too which should keep his 3 ball clean.

how does it become one
This iteration is a concession that Jaden isn't a power forward, so if you want a championship team and he's your 3 than you have to get a real starting stretch 4. Which I suppose you have to bet PJ Washington is that guy and you live with the consequences of his long contract.

[Lipoli390]

https://youtu.be/h-jnqK2lFGA?si=Xh6V4Ye9Y9G_cfxu

I posted this Growls and Howls video in this thread because it has tilted me towards starting Jaden essentially at the PF position and Josh Green starting at SF. I that starting lineup will work if we have Lyles and Love for rotation depth at that position. There might be some matchups that require starting Lyles or Love but rarely. We’d have great size at every starting position except PF where we’d still have excellent length but lack bulk and we’ve have two backup PFs with excellent size for the PF position. That’s plenty of size for a championship contender in my view.

You don’t need size at every position to be a championship contender. I think we have the talent on this roster to be a championship contender. We’ll need a break or two to get past the Spurs and OKC, but it’s doable in my view. Other than health, the key for us will be how well this team plays together and how consistently they play at their highest level. Last season, we had a mix of guys who just didn’t blend particularly well together and who had way too many minutes of play where the full effort just wasn’t there. We also lacked a playmaker and second ball-handler to unlock more productivity from Ant on both ends. If the roster changes made this summer have fixed those issues, we’ll be right there.

What the Howls and Growls video to see how playing PF can work and how it will likely unlock Jaden’s full rebounding and rim protection talents. Then watch the following two videos of Josh Green. The first one highlights Green’s three-point shooting. The second one shows that Green brings a lot more to the table than three-point shooting. There’s a lot to like about Josh Green as our starting SF with Jaden sliding over to PF. It’s not perfect, but there’s no perfect lineup in the NBA.

https://youtu.be/_XmBUfpV0p0?si=nILpqfZFvpNESmhV

https://youtu.be/hjGTES5W1Ss?si=70AYdajwkL5CcMhu

[AussieWolf3]

https://youtu.be/h-jnqK2lFGA?si=Xh6V4Ye9Y9G_cfxu

I posted this Growls and Howls video in this thread because it has tilted me towards starting Jaden essentially at the PF position and Josh Green starting at SF. I that starting lineup will work if we have Lyles and Love for rotation depth at that position. There might be some matchups that require starting Lyles or Love but rarely. We’d have great size at every starting position except PF where we’d still have excellent length but lack bulk and we’ve have two backup PFs with excellent size for the PF position. That’s plenty of size for a championship contender in my view.

You don’t need size at every position to be a championship contender. I think we have the talent on this roster to be a championship contender. We’ll need a break or two to get past the Spurs and OKC, but it’s doable in my view. Other than health, the key for us will be how well this team plays together and how consistently they play at their highest level. Last season, we had a mix of guys who just didn’t blend particularly well together and who had way too many minutes of play where the full effort just wasn’t there. We also lacked a playmaker and second ball-handler to unlock more productivity from Ant on both ends. If the roster changes made this summer have fixed those issues, we’ll be right there.

What the Howls and Growls video to see how playing PF can work and how it will likely unlock Jaden’s full rebounding and rim protection talents. Then watch the following two videos of Josh Green. The first one highlights Green’s three-point shooting. The second one shows that Green brings a lot more to the table than three-point shooting. There’s a lot to like about Josh Green as our starting SF with Jaden sliding over to PF. It’s not perfect, but there’s no perfect lineup in the NBA.

https://youtu.be/_XmBUfpV0p0?si=nILpqfZFvpNESmhV

https://youtu.be/hjGTES5W1Ss?si=70AYdajwkL5CcMhu

Hey Lip, thanks for the response!
I also found that breakdown super informative from Paynting, I watch it a few days ago.

As an FYI I guess, I'm not proposing that Lyles should start, rather I'm finding it helpful to breakdown the different rotation sets because I think it will help reveal the best starting 5 and how the rest of the rotation fills in behind them.

What became really clear to me while think about this rotation is that you either have to over rely on Lyles playing a huge whooping of minutes, a PF of Love's caliber playing a lot of backup minutes or Jaden is both your starting SF and your primary backup PF

I think that's a big weakness and a big problem.

Which leads me to believe this particular lineup will be less optimal than other options I'd like to evaluate --- such as Green starting.

But I do want to see what others have to say, particularly from those who currently favor starting Lyles, a position I do not agree with

[BeenLurkin]

If we aren’t bringing in TJ for Lamelo to keep the ball in TJs hand then we are dumb. Or he should be traded. His super power is aggressive ball dominance.

[rapsuperstar31]

If we aren’t bringing in TJ for Lamelo to keep the ball in TJs hand then we are dumb. Or he should be traded. His super power is aggressive ball dominance.

I have no issue trading him in the right package if he can't play some off ball. TJ being the primary ball handler will lead to less ball movement than when Ant ran the point. I actually think Shannon might be better in that slot, one pass away from the primary ball handler. The pg draws the double team, TSJ is one pass away to get the ball and attack.

[AussieWolf3]

If we aren’t bringing in TJ for Lamelo to keep the ball in TJs hand then we are dumb. Or he should be traded. His super power is aggressive ball dominance.

I agree, so how do you achieve that? That's the rotation?

[BeenLurkin]

TJ an Ayo come in together or Lamelo stays and Ayo subs for Trey or Rudy and we go small

[BeenLurkin]

It’s sorta a problem you solve backwards. In general the first sub out will be Rudy. Reduce his minutes, keep him healthy. Or he picks up some fouls. Therefore the first sub is probably Joan or Ayo depending on if we can go small or not. TJ subs opposite Lamelo. The rest is just working Jalen Clark and Josh green and bones in and out situationally. Do we need defense? Do we spark the offense? Is someone in fouls trouble (Jaden).

Trey Lyle’s being ABLE to start and eat usef minutes makes this so much easier. If he can’t then we have problems and will be making moves early in the season.

[AussieWolf3]

It’s sorta a problem you solve backwards. In general the first sub out will be Rudy. Reduce his minutes, keep him healthy. Or he picks up some fouls. Therefore the first sub is probably Joan or Ayo depending on if we can go small or not. TJ subs opposite Lamelo. The rest is just working Jalen Clark and Josh green and bones in and out situationally. Do we need defense? Do we spark the offense? Is someone in fouls trouble (Jaden).

Trey Lyle’s being ABLE to start and eat usef minutes makes this so much easier. If he can’t then we have problems and will be making moves early in the season.

I agree that it makes sense to sub Rudy out quickly and reduce his minutes and give Ball 28 mpg last season I would think he's out pretty quick too.

I disagree however that TJ subs opposite Ball, and I view him more as Ant's direct replacement which is how he should be used. So imo his playing time hinges on 1) can he provide a respectable facsimile of Ant on the 2nd unit 2) can he sub in earlier as a 3 or 4 before sliding up to the 2 guard spot?

The 2nd question is important regarding TJs career trajectory because he'll need to have more flexibility than he's shown, however it will also solve an important quandary for the rotation given his size. It would be huge if he can play some minutes as a 3 and D wing or as a useful defender against PFs. That's the type of switchablity and variability that would really transform the shape of this team this year and in the future.

And that's where the issue lies right now, I'm not banking on TJ answering the 2nd question. As far as I'm concerned he's gonna continue to prove best used on ball, which severally limits his usefulness. There is no reason, given what we know right now, to believe that Ayo isn't firmly ahead of him in the rotation, which means if Ayo isn't starting, he's coming in first for 1 of Ant or Ball. Well Ant has played the entire 1st and 3rd quarters traditionally, maybe that gets scaled back but reasonably I would guess Ayo subs in for Ball, and Ant probably spends more time on ball for the 2nd shift.

You suggested Rudy is out early, so does that mean Lyles is staying in to continue providing size next to a slightly smaller Joan? That's pushing Lyles to what the 10 minute mark in the 1st and 3rd and paces him to be close to 30 minutes a night? Maybe that's ok but the general opinion that I've gathered is that wouldn't be a good thing for the team.

So I see Ayo plus Green/Clark being the first sub ins for Ball and Lyles and Jaden slides to the 4. I actually really like that as 2nd shift, but it does expose Rudy and Ant to high minutes unless Joan proves to be reliable enough to come in with that group or soon after (otherwise I'm figure him for 10-15 minutes a night).

It's just hard for me to see how Shannon comes in before Edwards first sub out, which I presume will be the start of the 2nd

That leaves you with:
Ball / Ayo / Bones
Ant / TJ / Clark
Jaden / Green / Clark
Lyles / Jaden / FA
Rudy / Joan