Wolves record without Ant...current and projected

[FNG]

Nobody liked it when we got the news that Ant was about to have knee surgery and miss two months. I predicted at the time that, assuming he was back for the Christmas OkC game, missing him might cost us 5 wins we might have otherwise had won. But so far, we're 5-2 without him, and I would say we probably win the Golden State game if Ant is available...so, so far it's only cost us one win.

So let's go on the record. Again, let's assume he's back by Christmas, that means he will miss 25 games total...and we've already played 7 of them. Let's predict what the Wolves record will be when they host OkC on Christmas day. For extra credit, also calculate losses you think might have been wins with Ant in the lineup.

For purposes of this exercise, I'm assuming reasonable health...i.e. we don't lose any of our current five starters for a significant time. I'll go first. I have them 29-10 on that date (which would be just a slightly better winning percentage than our current one), with 5 losses that would have been wins with Ant in the lineup. I know...saying we would have been 24-5 on Christmas day if Ant were playing seems preposterous. But the early season schedule has not been particularly challenging, I really like the way this club played prior to his injury, and we've hardly missed a beat since then.

So whaddayathink...look at the schedule, and predict the Wolves record after the Milwaukee game on 12/23 assuming Ant misses every game until then. Let's see what ya got.

Edit: My early onset alzheimers must be kicking in, or maybe it's just my poor math skills, Anyway, the Wolves are only going to have 29 games in by Christmas, not 39! So let's do this again. DNatagal has the correct number of games, so he's the only one on the board with his 23-6 prediction. Q and Aussie were either too kind to notice my poor math or perhaps put more faith in my math than deserved, but both need to reissue their predictions based on 29 games, not 39. I'll provide my prediction below.

[Q-is-here]

I'll say 25-14. Denver, OKC, and the Celtics all had winning records without Jokic, SGA, and Tatum respectively last season when those guys didn't play. The Celtics especially were good.

We have a great head coach, a good culture, and excellent depth. But we need Ant healthy and 100% fit come playoff time!

[DNatagal]

The Wolves are 8 and 3 with 18 games to go before that Xmas day game.

Thu, Nov 12 vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sat, Nov 14 vs. Chicago Bulls
Mon, Nov 16 vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tue, Nov 17 vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thu, Nov 19 vs. New York Knicks
Sat, Nov 21 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Mon, Nov 23 vs. Brooklyn Nets
Wed, Nov 25 at Oklahoma City Thunder
Fri, Nov 27 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Sun, Nov 29 at Sacramento Kings
Tue, Dec 1 at Portland Trail Blazers
Wed, Dec 2 at Los Angeles Clippers
Sat, Dec 12 at Phoenix Suns
Mon, Dec 14 at Utah Jazz
Wed, Dec 16 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Fri, Dec 18 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Mon, Dec 21 vs. Phoenix Suns
Wed, Dec 23 at Milwaukee Bucks

12 home games
6 road games

I only see 3 losses. Portland (either of the home back to back), Lakers (either of the road back to back), OKC on Turkey Day.

23-6

[AussieWolf3]

The Wolves are 8 and 3 with 18 games to go before that Xmas day game.

Thu, Nov 12 vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sat, Nov 14 vs. Chicago Bulls
Mon, Nov 16 vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tue, Nov 17 vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thu, Nov 19 vs. New York Knicks
Sat, Nov 21 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Mon, Nov 23 vs. Brooklyn Nets
Wed, Nov 25 at Oklahoma City Thunder
Fri, Nov 27 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Sun, Nov 29 at Sacramento Kings
Tue, Dec 1 at Portland Trail Blazers
Wed, Dec 2 at Los Angeles Clippers
Sat, Dec 12 at Phoenix Suns
Mon, Dec 14 at Utah Jazz
Wed, Dec 16 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Fri, Dec 18 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Mon, Dec 21 vs. Phoenix Suns
Wed, Dec 23 at Milwaukee Bucks

12 home games
6 road games

I only see 3 losses. Portland (either of the home back to back), Lakers (either of the road back to back), OKC on Turkey Day.
Uh
23-6

Wow.... That is a light schedule. I won't be as bold as you and say only 3 loses, but I think they'll fare well.

Let's say, 28-11

[FNG]

Okay, now that I realize the Wolves will have only 29 games played by Christmas, not 39, I'm redoing my prediction. Q and Aussie are both welcome to resubmit. DNatagal is in with 23-6, I'm going with 20-9 with 5 losses that would have been wins had Ant played. . Either way, I think we would all be happy with that record with Ant having missed 25 games

[Phenom]

I don't see a loss on there

[60WinTim]

Wow! Since when am I the one to reign in the utter giddiness permeating through the board?!?

I understand where the giddiness comes from: the team has been winning games you hope they would win without ANT, and even added a bonus win at Houston. But one "unexpected" loss, such as tonight against Dallas, would burst that giddiness bubble!

I think DNat's 3 losses would be a reasonable expectation WITH ANT. I'm adding another 4 losses because we are missing ANT.

That would be a 19-10 record heading into Christmas Day. Which is pretty darn good. But likely puts the Wolves in the play-in mix. We are going to need ANT back to work our way up the standings...

[Of course, my heart wants to join DNat in his 23-6 prediction! ]

[DNatagal]

Wow! Since when am I the one to reign in the utter giddiness permeating through the board?!?

I understand where the giddiness comes from: the team has been winning games you hope they would win without ANT, and even added a bonus win at Houston. But one "unexpected" loss, such as tonight against Dallas, would burst that giddiness bubble!

I think DNat's 3 losses would be a reasonable expectation WITH ANT. I'm adding another 4 losses because we are missing ANT.

That would be a 19-10 record heading into Christmas Day. Which is pretty darn good. But likely puts the Wolves in the play-in mix. We are going to need ANT back to work our way up the standings...

[Of course, my heart wants to join DNat in his 23-6 prediction! ]

The team aspect for defense and rebounding is what I am leaning on for this next stretch. If the Wolves can keep the joy during the long homestand and keep playing for each other, then my prediction has a shot. If the moodiness that infected the Wolves last year returns, it could be closer to 10 losses. This team came together faster than I could ever dream. Just need to hold it together until Ant returns.

[Q-is-here]

Wow! Since when am I the one to reign in the utter giddiness permeating through the board?!?

I understand where the giddiness comes from: the team has been winning games you hope they would win without ANT, and even added a bonus win at Houston. But one "unexpected" loss, such as tonight against Dallas, would burst that giddiness bubble!

I think DNat's 3 losses would be a reasonable expectation WITH ANT. I'm adding another 4 losses because we are missing ANT.

That would be a 19-10 record heading into Christmas Day. Which is pretty darn good. But likely puts the Wolves in the play-in mix. We are going to need ANT back to work our way up the standings...

[Of course, my heart wants to join DNat in his 23-6 prediction! ]

One of the encouraging things is that we aren't doing anything that is statistically freakish in a good way that will eventually regress to the mean. On the other hand, there is no way we are going to keep shooting 67% from the line as a team (by far the worst in the NBA). Rudy is at 42% and Kuminga is at 52%. Just getting those up to 50% and 65% respectively - which is still below both of their career averages - would make a huge difference.

I'm also hoping our team turnover rate goes down a bit, although that's not quite as statistically inevitable as the free throw accuracy going up.

[AbeVigodaLive]

18 - 11.

I think all of us would have taken this easily when the injury happened.


[Note: I think that's good enough for the Wolves to keep Edwards out a bit longer, too. They'd have proven that they can stay afloat without him.]