Free Agency

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm adding Pablo Lopez to the my list of hopeful acquisitions by the Twins. It's only a matter of time before the Marlins sell off pieces and I think Lopez is fairly gettable given the quantity of quality arms already in the system.

The 26-year old Lopez has three years of arbitration left before reaching free agency in 2025. Over the last two seasons, he's thrown 160.0 IP with a 3.26 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and a 1.144 WHIP. He had a walk percentage of 6.7 and a strikeout percentage of 26.4 (9.8 K/9). He also keeps the ball in the park.

Lopez sounds great so what's the issue? Well, he's missed a lot of starts since he's come into the league. He's yet to pitch 112 innings in a season in his four years in Miami. The good news is that none of his injuries were serious. We're talking about a rotator cuff strain here. It's been a nuisance, but there's a really good pitcher there and I think he can be had for a fair price.

I'd consider offering Trevor Larnach, Josh Winder, and Gilberto Celestine. I could see Miami biting on that package or similar. Perhaps that's a team that would prefer the more proven outfielder in Max Kepler -- instead of Larnach -- given that he's capable of playing centerfield, which they're reportedly looking for. I'd also make that trade.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Free Agent Targets of Interest:

- SP Chris Archer (33)
- SP Zach Davies (29)
- SP Johnny Cueto (36)
- SP Trevor Cahill (34)

- RP Hunter Strickland (33)
- RP Andrew Miller (37)
- RP Richard Rodríguez (32)
- RP Tyler Clippard (37)
- RP Tony Watson (36)
- RP Trevor Rosenthal (32)
- RP Dellin Betances (33)

- CF Kevin Pillar (33)
- CF Albert Almora (27)

- OF Tommy Pham (34)
- OF Michael Conforto (29)

[FNG]

Here's why it is so important the Twins add at least one more starter. FanGraphs has them as one of only three teams (along with the Dodgers and Blue Jays) on which every projected starting position player (plus prospect Miranda) projects to be above average at the plate...and we know they are going to be good defensively. And yet FG gives them only a 35% chance of making the expanded playoffs. In fact the addition of Correa only increased their playoff chances from 25 to 35%, because they were already considered so strong in hitting and fielding. I expect their playoff chances will soar after they add one more starter, and with their obvious win now strategy, I will be quite surprised if they don't.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

It has not been reported yet (?), but I have baseball connections that say 36-year old Johnny Cueto will be signing with the Minnesota Twins in the next couple of days. They sounded very sure of this news. We'll see how clued in they actually are.

If indeed that happens, that should be a solid addition to the rotation, especially now that they've already traded for one frontline starter in Sonny Gray. They can't afford to stop there, though. Still need to get that Frankie Montas deal done.

[Jester1534]

It has not been reported yet (?), but I have baseball connections that say 36-year old Johnny Cueto will be signing with the Minnesota Twins in the next couple of days. They sounded very sure of this news. We'll see how clued in they actually are.

If indeed that happens, that should be a solid addition to the rotation, especially now that they've already traded for one frontline starter in Sonny Gray. They can't afford to stop there, though. Still need to get that Frankie Montas deal done.

Idk if that was dig on me but whatever. Cueto would be good get to fill out the rotation. I trust him more than Bundy.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

It has not been reported yet (?), but I have baseball connections that say 36-year old Johnny Cueto will be signing with the Minnesota Twins in the next couple of days. They sounded very sure of this news. We'll see how clued in they actually are.

If indeed that happens, that should be a solid addition to the rotation, especially now that they've already traded for one frontline starter in Sonny Gray. They can't afford to stop there, though. Still need to get that Frankie Montas deal done.

Idk if that was dig on me but whatever. Cueto would be good get to fill out the rotation. I trust him more than Bundy.

??

Yeah, they'd basically just be replacing Michael Pineda with Johnny Cueto. I can live with that. Not bad for a fourth or fifth starter, but they still need to make a significant trade for a top arm.

[Jester1534]

It has not been reported yet (?), but I have baseball connections that say 36-year old Johnny Cueto will be signing with the Minnesota Twins in the next couple of days. They sounded very sure of this news. We'll see how clued in they actually are.

If indeed that happens, that should be a solid addition to the rotation, especially now that they've already traded for one frontline starter in Sonny Gray. They can't afford to stop there, though. Still need to get that Frankie Montas deal done.

Idk if that was dig on me but whatever. Cueto would be good get to fill out the rotation. I trust him more than Bundy.

??

Yeah, they'd basically just be replacing Michael Pineda with Johnny Cueto. I can live with that. Not bad for a fourth or fifth starter, but they still need to make a significant trade for a top arm.

Cause of what I said about Correa and my friend of 20 years. Sorry I read it as sarcasm.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I just watched the Carlos Correa introductory presser. I could certainly be wrong, but that presser did not feel like it came from a guy who intended to play in Minnesota for just one season. Lots of talk about culture and development. Mentioned winning division titles and competing for championships. Sounded very excited to live there and settle down with his family. Again, I could be misreading everything and/or Correa is an exceptional actor, but that came across like a guy who is very much open to staying a Twin long-term.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Jeff Passan:

Right-hander Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a one-year, $3.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Archer, 33, will join the Twins' rotation and can earn up to $9.5 million this season with performance bonuses.

Chris Archer's deal with the Twins has a base of $2.75 million and a $10 million mutual option with a $750K buyout. He can earn up to $6 million in bonuses based on games started or outings with nine or more outs. A healthy Archer would get paid well and be a huge boon for Twins.

Love this. Low-risk, moderately-high reward. Chris Archer still has great stuff, but durability has been the question mark. He was one of the free agents remaining I still had my eyes on. Hopefully, he's effective and can start 20-plus games. I much prefer Archer over Michael Pineda or Johnny Cueto despite the increased risk.

I'll have to ask my guy what happened with Cueto, but I'm not upset by the turnout.

[Monster]

Jeff Passan:

Right-hander Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a one-year, $3.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Archer, 33, will join the Twins' rotation and can earn up to $9.5 million this season with performance bonuses.

Chris Archer's deal with the Twins has a base of $2.75 million and a $10 million mutual option with a $750K buyout. He can earn up to $6 million in bonuses based on games started or outings with nine or more outs. A healthy Archer would get paid well and be a huge boon for Twins.

Love this. Low-risk, moderately-high reward. Chris Archer still has great stuff, but durability has been the question mark. He was one of the free agents remaining I still had my eyes on. Hopefully, he's effective and can start 20-plus games. I much prefer Archer over Michael Pineda or Johnny Cueto despite the increased risk.

I'll have to ask my guy what happened with Cueto, but I'm not upset by the turnout.

Old if I actually like this deal better than signing Pineda and assuming he will pitch well for half a season. Still there are a couple reasons I like this deal better than what Pineda got.

1. If it doesn't work out it's just 3.5 million and it's done. Pineda got 5.5. He can also earn a decent chunk of incentives around 2.5 million. So the max value for 1 season is similar. Archer is lower risk in terms of salary.

2. A mutual option of 10 million but that also includes the buyout of 750k. If Archer works out they can keep him for a reasonably decent sum next year. There is value in that. If I'm honest I doubt it works out that well but even if there is a 5 percent chance it does that's nice to have something already in place.

Ultimately it's nice to have a veteran starter signed that has a chance of healthy to be solid in the rotation. Of the guys discussed here Pineda Cueto and Archer health was some sort of concern with all of them to some extent. Good starters that have little concerns for injury are expensive and also might require a lengthy contract which may be worth it but I can understand if there is pause.

With the Archer signing Lewis Thorpe was taken off waivers and passed through so he will be at AAA. If I remember right they are looking at him as a reliever now along with Jax. I think that's a good plan for both of them.