Free Agency

[FNG]

I been asking this question to a lot of my friends. But should the Twins be in the sweepstakes for one of these high price short stops?

I believe the answer is yes because we have no one in our system ready to take that position. We don't know what Lewis will be and people didn't think he stick there anyway. It sounds like Martin is going to either play 2nd or outfield.

Right now they have Lewis and Martin listed as CF/SS...interesting combo. I understand your support for spending some dough on a high priced SS, because I have some concerns that you are correct that neither steps up enough to become an average defensive SS (I have little concern about their bats though. But I'm not ready to give up on them so early. I know Simmons had a subpar year at the plate, but he is a magician at SS and I'm willing to roll with him until we see what Lewis or Martin can become. I'd rather spend our available bucks on a frontline starting pitcher or two.

I would normally agree FNG but this Pitching class sucks ass if your looking for that type of guy. Also most of them aren't even option in my opinion.

Robbie Ray (30, 6.6 bWAR) -- rejected qualifying offer my guess is the Jays will go all in and sign him
Kevin Gausman (31, 5.3) Giants just lost Posey contract so they can afford him
Max Scherzer (37, 5.3) Will sign with a legit big market contender
Carlos Rodón (29, 5.0) He would be my number 1 priority
Anthony DeSclafani (32, 3.9) Not enough track record
Marcus Stroman (30, 3.7) 90% sure he is signing with the cardinals
Clayton Kershaw (34, 2.3) Will go back to Dodgers for peanuts and hes washed up now

Depth Guys that don't move the needle
Danny Duffy (33, 2.1)
Steven Matz (31, 2.0)
Wily Peralta (33, 2.0)
Yusei Kikuchi (31, 1.7)
Michael Pineda (33, 1.4)
Corey Kluber (36, 1.4) Could see a reunion with his Cleveland Friends this year in Falvey and Lavine
Jon Gray (30, 1.3)

My guess we sign Pineda and Kluber. Then roll with Ober and Ryan and have competition for that 5th spot. This FA would be a lot easier if Maeda didn't get hurt.

Excellent summary jester and I see your point. I'm actually quite high on Ryan and Ober, and curious to see who they put next to them in the rotation. I'm confident we're going to hit...just need a slightly above average rotation to compete.

[kekgeek]

So I am probably of the most casual baseball fans there is (I just watch twins games and would struggle to name 3 players on every other team).

Am I wrong saying this that the twins could be the worst team in baseball next year. With the buxton rumors (pay the man), Donaldson rumors and maybe the worst starting staff in baseball with Maeda out (i know he was bad last year anyways)

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

So I am probably of the most casual baseball fans there is (I just watch twins games and would struggle to name 3 players on every other team).

Am I wrong saying this that the twins could be the worst team in baseball next year. With the buxton rumors (pay the man), Donaldson rumors and maybe the worst starting staff in baseball with Maeda out (i know he was bad last year anyways)

They're definitely in the conversation for the worst unless they make significant additions this winter. I don't know how often you check the Twins side of the forum, but that's a big part of my case as to why the front office should sell off some pieces and plan ahead for 2023. I just don't see any realistic path to the playoffs next year barring some kind of marquee free agent signing and/or trade. I'm also not sure how much higher Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton can push their trade value. Sell high.

[Monster]

So I am probably of the most casual baseball fans there is (I just watch twins games and would struggle to name 3 players on every other team).

Am I wrong saying this that the twins could be the worst team in baseball next year. With the buxton rumors (pay the man), Donaldson rumors and maybe the worst starting staff in baseball with Maeda out (i know he was bad last year anyways)

They're definitely in the conversation for the worst unless they make significant additions this winter. I don't know how often you check the Twins side of the forum, but that's a big part of my case as to why the front office should sell off some pieces and plan ahead for 2023. I just don't see any realistic path to the playoffs next year barring some kind of marquee free agent signing and/or trade. I'm also not sure how much higher Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton can push their trade value. Sell high.

Idk if you saw the Twins record after they sold off everything at the trade deadline and had more injuries. They didn't suck. Could they be the worst team in baseball? Sure but a ton went wrong last year it's possible they actually have some things go right this year especially in terms of staying somewhat healthy. So I don't think they are gonna be the worst team in baseball. The concern is that they basically end up similar to this year or around .500 or just below and what good does that do? That's why Cam is in favor of selling off pieces. My issue with that is that there are only so many prospects you can have even for a MLB franchise. What are some guys really going to bring back in terms of prospects? Buxton? Yeah he would bring back a haul. Polonco? Not sure. I'm honestly not against dealing just about anyone I just think we have to be realistic about it.

[FNG]

So I am probably of the most casual baseball fans there is (I just watch twins games and would struggle to name 3 players on every other team).

Am I wrong saying this that the twins could be the worst team in baseball next year. With the buxton rumors (pay the man), Donaldson rumors and maybe the worst starting staff in baseball with Maeda out (i know he was bad last year anyways)

They're definitely in the conversation for the worst unless they make significant additions this winter. I don't know how often you check the Twins side of the forum, but that's a big part of my case as to why the front office should sell off some pieces and plan ahead for 2023. I just don't see any realistic path to the playoffs next year barring some kind of marquee free agent signing and/or trade. I'm also not sure how much higher Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton can push their trade value. Sell high.

Idk if you saw the Twins record after they sold off everything at the trade deadline and had more injuries. They didn't suck. Could they be the worst team in baseball? Sure but a ton went wrong last year it's possible they actually have some things go right this year especially in terms of staying somewhat healthy. So I don't think they are gonna be the worst team in baseball. The concern is that they basically end up similar to this year or around .500 or just below and what good does that do? That's why Cam is in favor of selling off pieces. My issue with that is that there are only so many prospects you can have even for a MLB franchise. What are some guys really going to bring back in terms of prospects? Buxton? Yeah he would bring back a haul. Polonco? Not sure. I'm honestly not against dealing just about anyone I just think we have to be realistic about it.

Monster, I really enjoyed this team after the trade deadline (I even put one foot on the Sano bandwagon), and probably find myself a little more optimistic than the general consensus here. I love the upside of some of our young guys, and I expect the bullpen will look more like it did the last half of the season than the disastrous first half. I'm going to wait until we see how Jim Pohlad spends his money this offseason, but if we can add a reliable starting pitcher or two, I will probably be predicting playoffs come spring.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

That's fair, monster, and I can agree with some of what you noted above. Also, it's nice to see you back in some capacity.

My counterpoint would be that a lot went right for the Twins after the trade deadline that I wouldn't necessarily expect to be replicated, namely Jorge Polanco and Bailey Ober. Consider that Minnesota went 30-29 in the 59 games after the July 30th 4:00 PM deadline. 30-29 (.508) translates to 83 wins over the course of a full 162-game schedule, which as we know isn't good enough to make the playoffs -- not even close, actually. I know that doesn't mean anything on its own, and the team has various means of improvement, but this team appears closer to the bottom of the American League than the top, in my opinion. Think about this team without Polanco being one of the hottest hitters in baseball. It's isn't a pretty thought.

The farm system is loaded, however, which gives me real optimism for the near future. Additionally, there's a number of Twins prospects who are MLB-ready or close to it as soon as 2022. I'd rather let some combination of Joe Ryan, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, and Josh Winder handle consistent starts at the MLB-level than sign another J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, or waste starts on the hodgepodge group of arms the Twins used last year. I'd use next year to develop some of this high-level talent and let them get acclimated to the next level.

Similarly, I'd make room in the Twins lineup for some combination of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin. These guys have shown enough in the minors. They need to get their feet wet; they need major league at-bats. How much more of Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, and Andrelton Simmons do we need to see? Why not sell Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco when their value may never be higher?

I can stomach the losing that comes with development as long as I see a vision in play. I don't see a vision with the status quo.

[Jester1534]

That's fair, monster, and I can agree with some of what you noted above. Also, it's nice to see you back in some capacity.

My counterpoint would be that a lot went right for the Twins after the trade deadline that I wouldn't necessarily expect to be replicated, namely Jorge Polanco and Bailey Ober. Consider that Minnesota went 30-29 in the 59 games after the July 30th 4:00 PM deadline. 30-29 (.508) translates to 83 wins over the course of a full 162-game schedule, which as we know isn't good enough to make the playoffs -- not even close, actually. I know that doesn't mean anything on its own, and the team has various means of improvement, but this team appears closer to the bottom of the American League than the top, in my opinion. Think about this team without Polanco being one of the hottest hitters in baseball. It's isn't a pretty thought.

The farm system is loaded, however, which gives me real optimism for the near future. Additionally, there's a number of Twins prospects who are MLB-ready or close to it as soon as 2022. I'd rather let some combination of Joe Ryan, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, and Josh Winder handle consistent starts at the MLB-level than sign another J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, or waste starts on the hodgepodge group of arms the Twins used last year. I'd use next year to develop some of this high-level talent and let them get acclimated to the next level.

Similarly, I'd make room in the Twins lineup for some combination of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin. These guys have shown enough in the minors. They need to get their feet wet; they need major league at-bats. How much more of Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, and Andrelton Simmons do we need to see? Why not sell Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco when their value may never be higher?

I can stomach the losing that comes with development as long as I see a vision in play. I don't see a vision with the status quo.

I will make a point on that 30-29 record Andrew Albers, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax and Gant started 32 of them Yuck. So half those games were pitched by Essentially 4A pitchers.

Idk the problem with this team is in middle and baseball there are no middle teams anymore. You're either a playoff team or the Rockies.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I will make a point on that 30-29 record Andrew Albers, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax and Gant started 32 of them Yuck. So half those games were pitched by Essentially 4A pitchers.

Idk the problem with this team is in middle and baseball there are no middle teams anymore. You're either a playoff team or the Rockies.

Yep, and that's 32 starts too many. You're probably being kind giving some of those names 4A-level ability. Ha.

Jose Berrios plays for Toronto. Kenta Maeda will be 34-years old in April and probably won't make a start next season as he recovers from surgery. Michael Pineda is a free agent. The Twins' starting rotation is an absolute mess right now. It might be the worst in baseball.

This is a relatively weak class of free agent starting pitchers. The premium options are high-risk, in my opinion, and it's not as deep as years past. There are only a handful of free agent starters available that I'd feel comfortable with in terms of what I'd expect them to cost and what I'd expect them to produce.

- [s]Eduardo Rodriguez (29)[/s]
- Aaron Sanchez (29)
- Jon Gray (30)
- Alex Wood (31)
- Steven Matz (31)
- Michael Pineda (33)

That's not a big group nor is it that great of a group. That means Minnesota should probably explore the trade market. There's just a lot to fix for this team with limited solutions. I don't see how they manage to do it and contend next year.

[Monster]

I will make a point on that 30-29 record Andrew Albers, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax and Gant started 32 of them Yuck. So half those games were pitched by Essentially 4A pitchers.

Idk the problem with this team is in middle and baseball there are no middle teams anymore. You're either a playoff team or the Rockies.

Yep, and that's 32 starts too many. You're probably being kind giving some of those names 4A-level ability. Ha.

Jose Berrios plays for Toronto. Kenta Maeda will be 34-years old in April and probably won't make a start next season as he recovers from surgery. Michael Pineda is a free agent. The Twins' starting rotation is an absolute mess right now. It might be the worst in baseball.

This is a relatively weak class of free agent starting pitchers. The premium options are high-risk, in my opinion, and it's not as deep as years past. There are only a handful of free agent starters available that I'd feel comfortable with in terms of what I'd expect them to cost and what I'd expect them to produce.

- [s]Eduardo Rodriguez (29)[/s]
- Aaron Sanchez (29)
- Jon Gray (30)
- Alex Wood (31)
- Steven Matz (31)
- Michael Pineda (33)

That's not a big group nor is it that great of a group. That means Minnesota should probably explore the trade market. There's just a lot to fix for this team with limited solutions. I don't see how they manage to do it and contend next year.

The question started about whether or not the Twins would be the worst team in baseball not contending. Unless something wonky happens I expect Pineda to be back for how very many games he is healthy he will be a worthwhile starter. Like you said some of the guys that made starts weren't 4A guys. Albers as much as I like him might not even be a AAA guy really. Let's also remember that as hot as Polonco was Arreaz had a stretch where he was basically an average hitter instead of the guy we were used to seeing. Yes the Twins did have some things go right that stretch but I think we cab assume some guys might stay healthy and produce that you can expect to do so. Taylor Rodgers being healthy would be nice for even 75% of the season.

Again I agree the Twins are likely in the middle of the road they are likely far from being a contender mostly because as you point out and everyone knows the starting rotation is at best MAYBE give the team a chance to win some games not a playoff rotation.

Let's look at it another way. What if the Twins are actually around .500 and look to be a starter or 2 away from being pretty good? What if they cashed in some prospects and made moves for pitcher in season? I'm not saying I'm excited about that possibility but that is a thing that COULD happen and it might even pay off.

To me Buxton is the guy that is the piece to sel office you are going to do it. Obviously the only reason you trade him is if you get some significant return back. How much is enough though? I don't think the return for Polonco is going to be all that high. The reason you (and to some extent me also) are willing to trade him is why teams aren't going to give up a ton to get him. Which Polonco hitter are you getting? And all-star level hitter or a good utility guy? He has had some nicks and stuff throughout his career so that might scare teams away a little especially as he is still youngish but getting older. The next 2 years on his contract are likely good value. Will teams be willing to pay him 10million plus after that? Will the Twins be willing to pay that? Ultimately I think for both Polonco and Buxton you need to be kinda blown away with an offer (relatively speaking for each player) to deal them. I think other than these 2 guys the only other significant asset to move would be Rodgers but I think trading him in season after he is healthy makes more sense.

For years I've said every offseason the Twins have some tough decisions. They probably do this year but maybe not as much as they have in other years. They could just roll with the current group and go with a youth movement along with sole value additions. Who knows maybe they can flip a vet that's on a 1 year deal for some prospects in season. Regardless of what they do it's the younger players coming up through the organization that will make or break whether this organization becomes a contender or sure playoff team for an era. Ok also if Buxton stays and somehow stays healthy that would be pretty significant also but I'm not banking on that.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Monster, my point was that the team was essentially .500 over their best stretch of baseball and that was with several guys playing above what they're really capable of. Jose Berrios isn't a Twin. Kenta Maeda is rehabbing an injury. Michael Pineda might not be back. Josh Donaldson is a year older. Byron Buxton could be traded or get injured and miss a significant amount of games as he always has. The worst record in baseball last season was 52-110. Will they be that bad? Probably not, but could they be a 60-65 win team? I could see that. That would put them in the conversation.