Free Agency

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Free agent shortstop Carlos Correa has reached an agreement with the Minnesota Twins on a three-year deal worth $105.3 million with opt outs after the first two years. Highest average annual value for an MLB infielder.

Let's fucking go. That's what I'm talking about. I'm pumped. Minnesota added the elite position player on the free market at a position of need. I absolutely love this.

[Monster]

Free agent shortstop Carlos Correa has reached an agreement with the Minnesota Twins on a three-year deal worth $105.3 million with opt outs after the first two years. Highest average annual value for an MLB infielder.

Let's fucking go. That's what I'm talking about. I'm pumped. Minnesota added the elite position player on the free market at a position of need. I absolutely love this.

Wow

On the other hand this kinda doesn't surprise me except this is an absolute premium FA in their prime. The Twins obviously had no SS and made the deal with the Yankees likely figuring they could get something done. I don't know the league that well but the Idea of them signing Story didn't make sense as they seemed to value defense at that position and there are questions about him there. Maybe if they could get him for a year then yeah but something didn't add up to me.

Meanwhile this is a creative contract structure. Correa is sure to get paid plenty for he next 3 years or he can opt out (I assume it's player opt outs) and try to get more money. Meanwhile the Twins may have a VERY good bridge SS for a year if he opts out and they don't want to pay him or maybe they keep him long term one way or another. Sounds good to me.

So let's reset things. The Twins now have one of the best SS in baseball at the plate and in the field. They also now have a couple options at 3rd with Gio and Arraez and both are pretty good Gio being better defensively and Arreaz more likely to be better with the bat. They are taking a chance on Sanchez which I think is a worthwhile gamble. They downgraded at 3rd offensively but Donaldson was gonna miss some games and maybe would be to play some of them at DH. If Gio is the guy that plays the most games at 3B that is probably a bit of an upgrade defensively from what I have seen. That infield could be really good most games.

On top of this it seems to me if they are gonna get Carlos Correa for possibly just this year they aren't gonna just roll out Gray and a bunch of young pitchers. I would imagine they are gonna make at least 1 more move for a pitcher. Maybe they trade for one and sign a bounce back guy for cheap enough if it doesn't work they can just simply move on. I still might not even be thinking big enough. Maybe they will trade for 2 more pitchers. It feels like they could spare some more prospects as they have already added a couple pitchers this offseason in deals.

[Jester1534]

Free agent shortstop Carlos Correa has reached an agreement with the Minnesota Twins on a three-year deal worth $105.3 million with opt outs after the first two years. Highest average annual value for an MLB infielder.

Let's fucking go. That's what I'm talking about. I'm pumped. Minnesota added the elite position player on the free market at a position of need. I absolutely love this.

Wow

On the other hand this kinda doesn't surprise me except this is an absolute premium FA in their prime. The Twins obviously had no SS and made the deal with the Yankees likely figuring they could get something done. I don't know the league that well but the Idea of them signing Story didn't make sense as they seemed to value defense at that position and there are questions about him there. Maybe if they could get him for a year then yeah but something didn't add up to me.

Meanwhile this is a creative contract structure. Correa is sure to get paid plenty for he next 3 years or he can opt out (I assume it's player opt outs) and try to get more money. Meanwhile the Twins may have a VERY good bridge SS for a year if he opts out and they don't want to pay him or maybe they keep him long term one way or another. Sounds good to me.

So let's reset things. The Twins now have one of the best SS in baseball at the plate and in the field. They also now have a couple options at 3rd with Gio and Arraez and both are pretty good Gio being better defensively and Arreaz more likely to be better with the bat. They are taking a chance on Sanchez which I think is a worthwhile gamble. They downgraded at 3rd offensively but Donaldson was gonna miss some games and maybe would be to play some of them at DH. If Gio is the guy that plays the most games at 3B that is probably a bit of an upgrade defensively from what I have seen. That infield could be really good most games.

On top of this it seems to me if they are gonna get Carlos Correa for possibly just this year they aren't gonna just roll out Gray and a bunch of young pitchers. I would imagine they are gonna make at least 1 more move for a pitcher. Maybe they trade for one and sign a bounce back guy for cheap enough if it doesn't work they can just simply move on. I still might not even be thinking big enough. Maybe they will trade for 2 more pitchers. It feels like they could spare some more prospects as they have already added a couple pitchers this offseason in deals.

I'm pretty sure this means we're trading for Montas or Manea. I like the deal because if he does stay the twins still only have 109 million in payroll in 2023 and if he does leave that means we have 36 million to go after a different player it's a win win for the the Twins.

You guys know I always try to share my info when I get with my connections with the Twins but this info I was told not to release by my friend of 20 years. I knew about the signing a week ago. I was told not to put it out any social media though as a favor but he said it's okay now. My buddy Justin Gominsky who runs the icemen baseball teams here in Minnesota. Is best friends with Correa. I trained with Justin for 4 years in high school he ended up going to the UofM and played with Correa in the Houston farm system. I had lunch with him and he told me Correa really struggled with the whole trash can gate and wanted a fresh start. He said the Astros were offering a 5 year deal.

Correa was apprehensive of coming to a cold weather city and ask Justin how it was to live in Minnesota. Justin said it's the best place to settle down and raise a family. I'm assuming this is why these opt clauses are in contract just in case he can't stand living here and to get more money as well.

We have now swapped an aging Donaldson, aging Garver, Rorvedt and Chase petty for Correa, Urshela, Sanchez and Sonny Gray

That's quite the haul and team is better off for it. It's really to bad the Kenta Maeda got so hurt last year. Also props to Pohlads on this one. I know there's opt out clauses to protect them but at the end of the day they did give them permission to spend 36 mil on a player.

I believe Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler will be traded to As. The twins also still have about 25-30 million to spend matching last year payroll.

[FNG]

This is the greatest news ever! I think we all knew the Twins were in "win now" mode when they signed Gray, and the Donaldson move just didn't make sense if they weren't going to go big...and Correa was the most logical "big" move. Kudos to all the analysts (and fans) who refused to analyze the Yankee trade because they knew something else had to be coming. I would have been really unhappy if this had been Story.

So now pardon me for a moment while I go play around with the Twins batting order...

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

This is the greatest news ever! I think we all knew the Twins were in "win now" mode when they signed Gray, and the Donaldson move just didn't make sense if they weren't going to go big...and Correa was the most logical "big" move. Kudos to all the analysts (and fans) who refused to analyze the Yankee trade because they knew something else had to be coming. I would have been really unhappy if this had been Story.

So now pardon me for a moment while I go play around with the Twins batting order...

Unhappy? Trevor Story would have been a huge get too and likely wouldn't have opt-out clauses after every year. There's nothing to be unhappy about with Story. It's also very likely that Carlos Correa opts out after this upcoming season and looks to sign a new, more lucrative long-term deal with Minnesota or some other team.

[FNG]

Story has been a decent hitter over his career...when he has been in hitter-friendly Coors Field. He hit a whopping .203 last season away from Coors with a .292 OBP. In fact, while he's made a name for himself with a .300 career average at Coors, he's only a career .241 average when playing in a normal environment...and he won't have the advantage anymore of playing in the thin Colorado air. Let's face it...he's a .241 hitter. If you compare Story's .241 career average away from Coors to Simmons' .265, the Twins would have downgraded at SS both at the plate and in the field. That's why I would have been very unhappy this morning if the news had been about Story instead of Correa. Fal-vine has given us a huge upgrade at the plate and perhaps even an upgrade in the field.

I still have a lot of faith in Fal-vine (despite the poor offseason last season), so I never really expected they had their sights on Story. But still I feel a great sense of relief today with the Correa news. I get that there is an out for Correa after the first two seasons, but Royce Lewis might be ready by the time Carlos hits the road...if he so decides.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Obviously, I'm not part of the trade talks and I don't have any sources, but I would guess Minnesota will probably give up two of Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Luis Arraez, and Max Kepler for Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino. Which two players the Twins would be willing to give up is less clear, but Miranda and Larnach make sense for the Athletics given their youth, upside, and team-controlled contracts for the foreseeable future.

It was reported today that Minnesota is still talking to Oakland about Montas. I think the Twins are going to continue being very aggressive after landing a big fish in Carlos Correa.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Story has been a decent hitter over his career...when he has been in hitter-friendly Coors Field. He hit a whopping .203 last season away from Coors with a .292 OBP. In fact, while he's made a name for himself with a .300 career average at Coors, he's only a career .241 average when playing in a normal environment...and he won't have the advantage anymore of playing in the thin Colorado air. Let's face it...he's a .241 hitter. If you compare Story's .241 career average away from Coors to Simmons' .265, the Twins would have downgraded at SS both at the plate and in the field. That's why I would have been very unhappy this morning if the news had been about Story instead of Correa. Fal-vine has given us a huge upgrade at the plate and perhaps even an upgrade in the field.

I still have a lot of faith in Fal-vine (despite the poor offseason last season), so I never really expected they had their sights on Story. But still I feel a great sense of relief today with the Correa news. I get that there is an out for Correa after the first two seasons, but Royce Lewis might be ready by the time Carlos hits the road...if he so decides.

You should really read Aaron Gleeman's article about the Coors Field effect being both a strength and a weakness for Rockies hitters. The short version is that while there's a real offensive advantage playing in their home park there's a hangover effect on the first several games they play on road trips before leveling back out, which causes their road numbers to be appear roughly five-percent worse than they actually should be. The cause for that is they're seeing increased breaking balls that they wouldn't normally see in Coors Field both in volume and in effectiveness so there's an adjustment period that hurts their numbers. Gleeman also showed a grouping of Rockies hitters and how their road numbers were better once they signed on with a new team. The sample included DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Matt Holiday, Chris Ianetta, Larry Walker, Dexter Fowler, and some others.

Basically, the home/road splits are a double-edged sword for Rockies players. They're not as good as their home numbers suggest and they're better than their road numbers would suggest. In the end, Story's still a top tier shortstop in baseball and the Twins would have been lucky to sign him.

Also, batting average alone is increasingly less useful when comparing players. Saying Story would be a downgrade from Andrelton Simmons is... not a good take at all. Even on a down year from Story he was over 4.0 WAR and posted another season with an OPS over .800. For comparison, Simmons hasn't been worth 4.0 WAR in the last three seasons combined and has never posted an .800 OPS in his career. One's a star player and the other is a stopgap defense-only shortstop.

[FNG]

I'm going to go with Jester's idea of using Kepler/Larnach (plus likely one of our pitching prospects) to bring in one of the Oakland starters, and play around with a lineup. I'm going to give Rooker a chance to prove his home run every 15 at bats in the minors isn't a fluke, and put him in right field, and I'm going to bat Polanco in the cleanup spot with the assumption that the power stroke he found last season is real. So, I'd go with:

Buxton CF
Arraez DH
Correa SS
Polanco 2B
Kirilloff LF
Sano 1B
Rooker RF
Sanchez/Jeffers C
Urshela/Miranda 3B

We still have a ways to go with our starting pitching, but I like the way that lineup will hit and play defense.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I tend to think any trade for Frankie Montas (or Sean Manaea) would involve cost-controlled but MLB-ready prospects. That means the group of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Drew Strotman, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin. Some combination of these players is what I think will get it done.

Obviously, it's unlikely the Twins will part with Kirilloff or Ryan from that group as they appear built into the big league's plans this upcoming season, but anyone else on this list is likely up for discussion.

That means Minnesota will likely hold on to Max Kepler and Luis Arraez this upcoming season barring something unforeseen. I would construct a batting lineup against right-handed pitchers to look something like:

1. Luis Arraez, DH
2. Jorge Polanco, 2B
3. Carlos Correa, SS
4. Byron Buxton, CF
5. Alex Kirilloff, LF
6. Miguel Sano, 1B
7. Max Kepler, RF
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Ryan Jeffers, C