Camden wrote:Last night was a well-executed game, especially offensively against a bad defensive team, but I would disagree with the premise that the Wolves offense (and/or defense) has been performing as well since the deadline.
As most of us are probably aware, points per game doesn't account for pace or possessions used (efficiency). It's simply a raw average. In my opinion, offensive/defensive ratings provide a more accurate depiction of how a team (not an individual) is performing by adjusting those raw values to 100 possessions. They're also more comparable that way.
I won't include the matchup against Utah on February 8 to pre or post as it was an in-between game with odd circumstances (both D'Angelo Russell and Mike Conley Jr. sat out for their respective teams at the time).
Pre-Trade (57 GP):
112.8 ORtg, 112.6 DRtg, +0.2 Net
January 1 - February 7 (20 GP):
114.7 ORtg, 112.1 DRtg, +2.5 Net
Post-Trade (11 GP):
111.9 ORtg, 114.2 DRtg, -2.3 Net
On the bright side, those post-trade numbers are trending in the right direction as they were hovering around a -5.0 net rating just a game or two ago. And this is not to say that Minnesota can't or won't flip the script down the stretch, especially if or when Karl-Anthony Towns returns, but I haven't seen any strong indication of this team outperforming what they were prior to making their deadline deal (yet). It continues to remain a matter of personal preference and future projection in my view.
Whether you choose to use ORtg or Points per Game, the results will be similar.
In the (12) post DLO games (including that Feb. 8th game) their ORtg is 114.2. In other words, they have continued to maintain a similar ORtg as that 20 game stretch - for an additional 12 games even without DLO. That's something we should all be happy about (right?).
My point stands that offense doesn't seem to be an issue so far (Post DLO). Anthony Edwards is not being shut down by other teams without DLO as some have opined. Maybe it will be an issue in the playoffs - hopefully we get to find out.
On the flip side, it's interesting that the DRtg has gotten worse Post DLO. Nobody saw that coming - ha! We are still dealing with small samples. The inclusion (or omission) of one game i.e. the Feb. 8th game both Conley and DLO sat out will make a big difference. How we present/paint the data will simply come down to "glass half full or half empty" perspectives. That's part of the normal forum decorum. I'm a half full guy so that's mostly what I share. I get enough doom and gloom in the real world.
Last night was a good win. They are 3-2 for this month and 4-2 in their last 6 games. KAT is getting closer. I don't expect to beat Boston. But I do see lots of winnable games left. I think we are going to be ok.