DLO Russell Trade Timing

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Trading 26-year old D'Angelo Russell for either 36-year old Kyle Lowry or 35-year old Mike Conley Jr. would be a noticeable downgrade at the position and for the team, and neither helps Minnesota moving forward long-term beyond their bloated salaries for next year. We'd just be kicking the can another season as they'd have to shop them next year with even less value. The Timberwolves would be better off keeping Russell and continuing to negotiate a new deal with him.

I don't see Fred VanVleet landing in Minnesota. He's going to become an unrestricted free agent after this season once he declines his player option, and he's reportedly looking for a much bigger payday than I'd be comfortable with this franchise giving him, especially considering he's trending downward this season. Still a good player, but already on the decline. From the reporting, it read like Minnesota is wanting to acquire salary that goes beyond this season. That doesn't sound like VanVleet to me.

We'll see what this front office does. They've already fucked up what was an intriguing blend of talent. I remained patient and open-minded, but I believe they are going to botch the handling of the point guard position too.

[Q-is-here]

Shams reported that the wolves are shopping Dlo, want a PG back (Rumors are Conley, FVV, Lowry and will not do a Dlo and Lowry swap) and don't want to lose Dlo salary spot.

I rank Shams just slightly below Woj in terms of reliability, so this is very good news. Is there any Wolves fan who wouldn't embrace dealing Russell for either FVV or Conley? Please get it done.

Woj is so much in the know GMs go to him and ask what they'll do next....

I suppose the chatter was inevitable. Whether a deal actually gets done is a different matter.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Trading 26-year old D'Angelo Russell for either 36-year old Kyle Lowry or 35-year old Mike Conley Jr. would be a noticeable downgrade at the position and for the team, and neither helps Minnesota moving forward long-term beyond their bloated salaries for next year. We'd just be kicking the can another season as they'd have to shop them next year with even less value. The Timberwolves would be better off keeping Russell and continuing to negotiate a new deal with him.

I don't see Fred VanVleet landing in Minnesota. He's going to become an unrestricted free agent after this season once he declines his player option, and he's reportedly looking for a much bigger payday than I'd be comfortable with this franchise giving him, especially considering he's trending downward this season. Still a good player, but already on the decline. From the reporting, it read like Minnesota is wanting to acquire salary that goes beyond this season. That doesn't sound like VanVleet to me.

We'll see what this front office does. They've already fucked up what was an intriguing blend of talent. I remained patient and open-minded, but I believe they are going to botch the handling of the point guard position too.

Maybe.

There is a significant percentage of people (many in the NBA community) who would take 1.5 years of a depleted Conley or maybe even Lowry over .5 season of D. Russell (or risk overpaying for his services for many more years).

Russell is extremely polarizing... and there are reasons behind that. That's in part why he's been on four teams. Meanwhile, Lowry and Conley have great reputations around the league for doing the little things on successful teams for more than a decade. Do they have much left? Anything left?

I dunno. But I can see the Wolves (and other teams) preferring either over Russell on a team like the Timberwolves that already has a rising young guard and a top-notch offensive big.



[Note: For me... Russell in a contract year, with tens of millions of dollars at stake, simply hasn't been good enough to warrant anything close to $30M annually. As a result, I'd be cautious at giving him a guaranteed $100M. If he's unwilling to take a steep paycut to stay... the Wolves' collective hands are basically tied, right? Banking on an aging, formerly successful PG who knows how to play has a certain appeal... even if we have to duck our heads on the low ceiling to see it.]

[thedoper]

Yeah if its not Russell at a max of 18per at this point its not really a good deal. 20 per might even be a bad deal at this point. He hasn't been himself this year IMO. Weird because I was expecting him to really make strides in the contract year. Too streaky offensively to be reliable, and a defensive problem.

I like the idea of Lowry much more than Conley and I am a huge Conley fan. Lowry still takes charges and is a savy defender. Im not sure Conley helps our D that much and I don't want to give Utah another penny.

[Lipoli390]

Trading 26-year old D'Angelo Russell for either 36-year old Kyle Lowry or 35-year old Mike Conley Jr. would be a noticeable downgrade at the position and for the team, and neither helps Minnesota moving forward long-term beyond their bloated salaries for next year. We'd just be kicking the can another season as they'd have to shop them next year with even less value. The Timberwolves would be better off keeping Russell and continuing to negotiate a new deal with him.

I don't see Fred VanVleet landing in Minnesota. He's going to become an unrestricted free agent after this season once he declines his player option, and he's reportedly looking for a much bigger payday than I'd be comfortable with this franchise giving him, especially considering he's trending downward this season. Still a good player, but already on the decline. From the reporting, it read like Minnesota is wanting to acquire salary that goes beyond this season. That doesn't sound like VanVleet to me.

We'll see what this front office does. They've already fucked up what was an intriguing blend of talent. I remained patient and open-minded, but I believe they are going to botch the handling of the point guard position too.

Maybe.

There is a significant percentage of people (many in the NBA community) who would take 1.5 years of a depleted Conley or maybe even Lowry over .5 season of D. Russell (or risk overpaying for his services for many more years).

Russell is extremely polarizing... and there are reasons behind that. That's in part why he's been on four teams. Meanwhile, Lowry and Conley have great reputations around the league for doing the little things on successful teams for more than a decade. Do they have much left? Anything left?

I dunno. But I can see the Wolves (and other teams) preferring either over Russell on a team like the Timberwolves that already has a rising young guard and a top-notch offensive big.

[Note: For me... Russell in a contract year, with tens of millions of dollars at stake, simply hasn't been good enough to warrant anything close to $30M annually. As a result, I'd be cautious at giving him a guaranteed $100M. If he's unwilling to take a steep paycut to stay... the Wolves' collective hands are basically tied, right? Banking on an aging, formerly successful PG who knows how to play has a certain appeal... even if we have to duck our heads on the low ceiling to see it.]

It's not simply up to DLO to decide whether he'll take a pay cut from his current $30 million per year. The relevant question is what other NBA teams will be willing to pay him. As you noted, DLO hasn't exactly taken advantage of his contract season. I just don't believe that swapping DLO for Lowry or Conley would move the needle for the Wolves. If the Wolves can get a future 1st-round or several 2nd-round picks along with Lowry or Conley, then maybe it's worth it. I just don't know what we can get for DLO that would be worthwhile or that would be better than singing a free agent PG for the MLE, finding a young PG in the G-League or re-signing DLO at $15 million per year.

[bleedspeed]

It's not simply up to DLO to decide whether he'll take a pay cut from his current $30 million per year. The relevant question is what other NBA teams will be willing to pay him. As you noted, DLO hasn't exactly taken advantage of his contract season. I just don't believe that swapping DLO for Lowry or Conley would move the needle for the Wolves. If the Wolves can get a future 1st-round or several 2nd-round picks along with Lowry or Conley, then maybe it's worth it. I just don't know what we can get for DLO that would be worthwhile or that would be better than singing a free agent PG for the MLE, finding a young PG in the G-League or re-signing DLO at $15 million per year.

Far to often we negotiate against ourselves. I think teams get caught up in having to spend the cap space, but they don't need to sign players to long-term deals. A big part of the problem in the NBA is the long-term deals.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

1. I think some of you are severely underrating D'Angelo Russell's overall production this season, especially given his more moderate usage offensively. I've explained that further in previous comments, but I'll add that his scoring efficiency (54.9 eFG%, 59.1 TS%) is above average for his position (51.5 eFG%, 55.4 TS%) and over the last six seasons nobody but Chris Paul in 2019 (17.6 PPG) has scored more on 13.0 FGA or less than Russell at 17.1 PPG this season. It's like some of you have forgotten that offense is still a big part of the game, and Russell has been essential, evident by having the second-highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus and Estimated Offensive Plus-Minus on the team.

His defense while not "good" is far from what it's been made out to be as well. By several metrics he grades comparably to Spencer Dinwiddie and Stephen Curry -- and better than golden boy Tyus Jones. He also grades out as passable in his role on Basketball Index. Again, not a good defender, but he's no Trae Young. You can live with him on that end when he's a plus on the other end, which he is.

2. Players that have Russell's skill set get paid in this league. I think there's still a premium on shot creators, especially those that are capable threats or better from the perimeter. There are a number of examples of this if you don't believe me. Whether Minnesota is willing to pay that is one thing, but those thinking he's worth the mid-level or just above it are wrong, in my opinion. On that note, I mentioned before the season that FiveThirtyEight projected his five-year market value at $86-million. I would say that's probably lower than what he'll get in free agency, but still higher than what's been mentioned here from time to time.

[thedoper]

1. I think some of you are severely underrating D'Angelo Russell's overall production this season, especially given his more moderate usage offensively. I've explained that further in previous comments, but I'll add that his scoring efficiency (54.9 eFG%, 59.1 TS%) is above average for his position (51.5 eFG%, 55.4 TS%) and over the last six seasons nobody but Chris Paul in 2019 (17.6 PPG) has scored more on 13.0 FGA or less than Russell at 17.1 PPG this season. It's like some of you have forgotten that offense is still a big part of the game, and Russell has been essential, evident by having the second-highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus and Estimated Offensive Plus-Minus on the team.

His defense while not "good" is far from what it's been made out to be as well. By several metrics he grades comparably to Spencer Dinwiddie and Stephen Curry -- and better than golden boy Tyus Jones. He also grades out as passable in his role on Basketball Index. Again, not a good defender, but he's no Trae Young. You can live with him on that end when he's a plus on the other end, which he is.

2. Players that have Russell's skill set get paid in this league. I think there's still a premium on shot creators, especially those that are capable threats or better from the perimeter. There are a number of examples of this if you don't believe me. Whether Minnesota is willing to pay that is one thing, but those thinking he's worth the mid-level or just above it are wrong, in my opinion. On that note, I mentioned before the season that FiveThirtyEight projected his five-year market value at $86-million. I would say that's probably lower than what he'll get in free agency, but still higher than what's been mentioned here from time to time.

I think the 538 market value of 17.2 is spot on. He'll probably get offered 20 by multiple teams which may be fine with the cap going up. Its still why I like the Lowry deal for the financials. Next year is the year to kick the salary decision down the road. There will be lots of opportunity under the new cap, Id rather have 30 mil and Lowry to play with than to anticipate that we can get Dlo re signed at a 33% discount with a rising cap.

[Lipoli390]

1. I think some of you are severely underrating D'Angelo Russell's overall production this season, especially given his more moderate usage offensively. I've explained that further in previous comments, but I'll add that his scoring efficiency (54.9 eFG%, 59.1 TS%) is above average for his position (51.5 eFG%, 55.4 TS%) and over the last six seasons nobody but Chris Paul in 2019 (17.6 PPG) has scored more on 13.0 FGA or less than Russell at 17.1 PPG this season. It's like some of you have forgotten that offense is still a big part of the game, and Russell has been essential, evident by having the second-highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus and Estimated Offensive Plus-Minus on the team.

His defense while not "good" is far from what it's been made out to be as well. By several metrics he grades comparably to Spencer Dinwiddie and Stephen Curry -- and better than golden boy Tyus Jones. He also grades out as passable in his role on Basketball Index. Again, not a good defender, but he's no Trae Young. You can live with him on that end when he's a plus on the other end, which he is.

2. Players that have Russell's skill set get paid in this league. I think there's still a premium on shot creators, especially those that are capable threats or better from the perimeter. There are a number of examples of this if you don't believe me. Whether Minnesota is willing to pay that is one thing, but those thinking he's worth the mid-level or just above it are wrong, in my opinion. On that note, I mentioned before the season that FiveThirtyEight projected his five-year market value at $86-million. I would say that's probably lower than what he'll get in free agency, but still higher than what's been mentioned here from time to time.

I think the 538 market value of 17.2 is spot on. He'll probably get offered 20 by multiple teams which may be fine with the cap going up. Its still why I like the Lowry deal for the financials. Next year is the year to kick the salary decision down the road. There will be lots of opportunity under the new cap, Id rather have 30 mil and Lowry to play with than to anticipate that we can get Dlo re signed at a 33% discount with a rising cap.

That's a fair take, Doper. I just see Lowry as $30 million that does nothing for us. If we're aiming for title contention, it's time for this organization to completely reorient it's thinking around Ant and McDaniels. I like Prince and Anderson as solid, productive vets with those guys and I'm OK with KAT for now. Otherwise, it doesn't matter whether our PG is DLO, an aging Lowry or an aging often injured Conley. We're not a year away, but we can be a couple years away if our front office plays this right. You're point about preserving the salary slot has merit, but the only value that slot has is the player it brings back in return to fill that slot. If DLO isn't the answer, neither is Lowry or Conley in their late 30s. And none of those three will bring back a PG who truly moves the needle for this team in my view.

Again, I'm totally on board with shopping DLO before the trade deadline. But I don't think we'll find a one-for-one deal that brings back a PG who makes a difference. And I'll reiterate that any PG we bring in to truly make a difference needs to be a longer-term player who fits well with the timeline of Ant and McDaniels - at least someone under 30 rather than someone in his late 30s. Perhaps we can package DLO with Naz for Fultz, but I doubt Orlando would take the deal and we don't have any picks to throw in. Maybe DLO for Lonzo Ball and some salary in the hope that Lonzo's knee comes around. Hard to know whether it's a risk worth taking without seeing the medical reports.

As I've mentioned before, if the Wolves really want to maximize their return from a trade before the trade deadline, Gobert is the guy to move. He could probably bring back Simmons - a risk, but a young elite talent who, if he returns to form, would move the needle for this team. VanVleet is another possible return we could get in a Gobert deal. As much as we talk about DLO not being worth a max salary, that same conclusion has to apply to Gobert. The stats show that Gobert has not moved the needle for this team in wins, defense or rebounding and his presence has been a drag on the offense. It's time our front office acknowledged that their deal for Rudy was a big mistake and took action to remedy the mistake. I still have faith in TC's ability to spot young talent as he has with Kessler, Minott and Garza so far in his short stint with the Wolves. He has Edwards, McDaniels and KAT along with young talent in Minott, Garza and Moore to work with. He has the Knicks' 2023 second-round pick along with lots of other undrafted talent currently in the G-League and coming out of college next summer. He has really good, productive vets in Prince and Anderson. Perhaps the best move would be moving Rudy for a couple expiring contracts who won't stay along with a couple of future 1st-round picks.

Anyway, that's how I see things. But who knows. Maybe TC can pull off a DLO deal that really helps this team for short term and long. He should definitely try.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

1. I think some of you are severely underrating D'Angelo Russell's overall production this season, especially given his more moderate usage offensively. I've explained that further in previous comments, but I'll add that his scoring efficiency (54.9 eFG%, 59.1 TS%) is above average for his position (51.5 eFG%, 55.4 TS%) and over the last six seasons nobody but Chris Paul in 2019 (17.6 PPG) has scored more on 13.0 FGA or less than Russell at 17.1 PPG this season. It's like some of you have forgotten that offense is still a big part of the game, and Russell has been essential, evident by having the second-highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus and Estimated Offensive Plus-Minus on the team.

His defense while not "good" is far from what it's been made out to be as well. By several metrics he grades comparably to Spencer Dinwiddie and Stephen Curry -- and better than golden boy Tyus Jones. He also grades out as passable in his role on Basketball Index. Again, not a good defender, but he's no Trae Young. You can live with him on that end when he's a plus on the other end, which he is.

2. Players that have Russell's skill set get paid in this league. I think there's still a premium on shot creators, especially those that are capable threats or better from the perimeter. There are a number of examples of this if you don't believe me. Whether Minnesota is willing to pay that is one thing, but those thinking he's worth the mid-level or just above it are wrong, in my opinion. On that note, I mentioned before the season that FiveThirtyEight projected his five-year market value at $86-million. I would say that's probably lower than what he'll get in free agency, but still higher than what's been mentioned here from time to time.

I think the 538 market value of 17.2 is spot on. He'll probably get offered 20 by multiple teams which may be fine with the cap going up. Its still why I like the Lowry deal for the financials. Next year is the year to kick the salary decision down the road. There will be lots of opportunity under the new cap, Id rather have 30 mil and Lowry to play with than to anticipate that we can get Dlo re signed at a 33% discount with a rising cap.

FiveThirtyEight's projected five-year market value is typically in the right ballpark, but it's usually (not always) a bit lower than what we've seen around the league play out. For example, Jalen Brunson's projected five-year market value was $97.1-million. He signed a four-year deal for $104-million. Andrew Wiggins' projected five-year market value was $76.1-million. He signed an extension for four-years, $109-million. Those are just two examples, but I think you get the idea and it applies to more players than that. I would expect D'Angelo Russell to rightfully command more than what his projected market value indicated. And with how he's played, I certainly wouldn't bet on it being less, which was also what I was trying to convey.

I would also strongly disagree about the Kyle Lowry deal being attractive in a basketball sense or financially. He's just not who he once was physically, which is to be expected for a 36-year old, and that $30-million next year is going to be even more difficult to move for value than it is right now despite it being an expiring contract. The only way Minnesota should consider making that move is if Miami adds something of legitimate value, or a sweetener. Unfortunately, their first-round pick doesn't do it for me nor does Nikola Jovic. The Timberwolves still need to win games so keeping Russell would make more sense to me in that scenario.

As an aside, I hope the reported terms that have been exchanged by both the Timberwolves front office and Russell's agent are reported at some point. I'm very curious to see how far apart they were and which side is being more stubborn.