Player Ratings

[kekgeek]

Updated Stats after 45 games.
Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Box-Score +/-

Ant - 112.1, 107.4, +4.7, +1.8
KAT - 113.5, 109.3, +4.2, +5.1
DLO - 111.9, 103.9, +8.0, +1.9
PBev - 112.7, 108.3, +4.4, +3.1
Vando - 114.5, 106.9, +7.6, +.6
Beasley - 106.7, 109.4,1, -2.8, -1.7
JadMac - 105.1, 107.3, -2.2, -.4.3
Naz - 100.3, 107.4, -7.1, -.3
Prince - 103.9, 110.2, -2.9
Nowell - 106.6, 109.4, +2.7

DLO is our highest rated defensive player? Must be a good system. I like DLO the player. I love DLO the teammate, but DLO the defensive stalwart? No.

https://youtu.be/tEOoE48p7Oc

In no way am I saying Dlo is this elite defensive player but this is a really good breakdown of why the Wolves defense has been good this year and how important Dlo has been to the Wolves success this year on that end of the court. (The video is from a month ago)

[Q-is-here]

Also just a reminder that Defensive Rating is simply how many points per 100 possessions the team gives up while the player is on the court. Offensive Rating is the same thing the other way around. Subtract Drtng from Ortng and you have Net Rating.

BPM (or Box Score Plus Minus) actually is the more exotic formula that tries to isolate more of what the player's individual contributions are. That's why I like these things in combination. In terms of BPM, DLO measures out very good, but not quite as good as Net Rating would suggest.

My main takeaway this season with DLO is that if used properly and surrounded by the right team mates, he doesn't tank a defense, and in fact, can be a net positive. That's been a revelation and a very positive development.

[Coolbreeze44]

Also just a reminder that Defensive Rating is simply how many points per 100 possessions the team gives up while the player is on the court. Offensive Rating is the same thing the other way around. Subtract Drtng from Ortng and you have Net Rating.

BPM (or Box Score Plus Minus) actually is the more exotic formula that tries to isolate more of what the player's individual contributions are. That's why I like these things in combination. In terms of BPM, DLO measures out very good, but not quite as good as Net Rating would suggest.

My main takeaway this season with DLO is that if used properly and surrounded by the right team mates, he doesn't tank a defense, and in fact, can be a net positive. That's been a revelation and a very positive development.

I can buy this take. He is being used properly, he's not being asked to guard guys like Trae Young. I guess you could say he's succeeding in the team defensive scheme Finchy has them playing. But the numbers lie because you couldn't put 5 DLO's on the court at the same time and be a good defensive team. You would score a ton of points though.

[Wolvesfan21]

DLO I think is also playing a bit more minutes with and against backups. While you can say that should drag his defense down, it really depends on who is on the floor with him. Some guys like Jaden are good defenders but don't do much on offense. Might be part of it, not sure. We of course had those two disaster games against the Clips when DLO was out. Was it because DLO didn't play? I can't really credit DLO's absence for the Wolves bad defensive efforts. But it's possible he has some effect too.

[Monster]

I still think a key to the rest of the season is if a couple guys that have poor number so far improve. Prince's shooting has trended in a positive direction the past 2 months and my guess is If healthy Beverly's 3 point shooting will improve. I think it's reasonable to hope Beasley will start hitting his shots at a more than acceptable level. Naz could play better. A couple guys improving their play could help propel the team towards being better and help stave off anyone else that drops off from what they have already provided.

I'm not suggesting we just hope for the current roster to improve and be the answer to some of the problems. The Wolves should at the very least look for some tweaks to the roster in the trade market. I simply think there is a reasonable amount of career data to support the idea that some guys can contribute in a more positive way the rest of the season than they have so far.

[Q-is-here]

Updated Stats through the All-Star Break.
Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Box-Score +/-

Ant - 113.6, 108.6, +5.0, +1.1
KAT - 114.6, 110.2, +4.5, +5.2
DLO - 112.6, 105.8, +6.9, +1.6
PBev - 113.2, 108.5, +4.7, +3.1
Vando - 115.1, 109.4, +5.7, +.9
Beasley - 108.2, 109.9, -1.7, - 1.9
JadMac - 108.2, 108.7, -.6, -.3.3
Naz - 104.4, 108.5, -4.2, -.3
Prince - 108.1, 110.0, -1.9, -1.4
Nowell - 111.7, 112.7, -1.0, +1.0

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How to think about Box Score Plus-Minus numbers:

10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

[Q-is-here]

A few observations:

- KAT is a legit all-star caliber player. No one else on the team is.

- Ant has fallen off a bit in the last month - no surprise for those of us that follow the team closely.

- DLO still has the best defensive rating on the team. Again, this isn't because he is a force of nature defensively, but he continues to do well in this scheme and with the players around him.

- Likewise, Vando has the best offensive rating on the team. Like DLO has complimentary pieces on defense, you put Vando out there in lineups with shooters and high usage guys and he will thrive by getting the team extra possessions and finishing at the rim. Although like Ant, I do think he's slowed down a bit in the last month. A guy like him probably shouldn't be playing more than 20 MPG over an 82-game season.

- Our main bench guys, other than Nowell, haven't contributed enough on balance.

[Lipoli390]

Thanks for posting these stats, Q. I agree with your take on what those numbers mean. As you noted, the numbers tell us our starting five are doing well while the team is generally held back by the bench. However, as you also noted, Ant and Vando have recently been underperforming their season stats. Hopefully, they'll both be rejuvenated by the rest they've had over the all-star break. Meanwhile, Prince and McDaniels have recently been outperforming their season stats. Hopefully, that will continue. Based on the numbers, and accounting for the recent improvement of Prince and McDaniels, I'd make the following changes in the rotation:

1. Allocate most of Beasley's minutes to Nowell
2. Sign a big like Monroe and give him a significant portion of Naz Reid's minutes.

[Monster]

Thanks for posting these stats, Q. I agree with your take on what those numbers mean. As you noted, the numbers tell us our starting five are doing well while the team is generally held back by the bench. However, as you also noted, Ant and Vando have recently been underperforming their season stats. Hopefully, they'll both be rejuvenated by the rest they've had over the all-star break. Meanwhile, Prince and McDaniels have recently been outperforming their season stats. Hopefully, that will continue. Based on the numbers, and accounting for the recent improvement of Prince and McDaniels, I'd make the following changes in the rotation:

1. Allocate most of Beasley's minutes to Nowell
2. Sign a big like Monroe and give him a significant portion of Naz Reid's minutes.

Actually just for fun if you go with Q's box score ratings Naz is actually a valuable player in the role he is playing. I think the Wolves just need a guy that can compliment him not replace his minutes.

It's also worth noting how much Nowell's Box score plus minus has dropped since Q's last post. Still I wouldn't mind seeing him get more minutes as you do.

[FNG]

Thanks for posting these stats, Q. I agree with your take on what those numbers mean. As you noted, the numbers tell us our starting five are doing well while the team is generally held back by the bench. However, as you also noted, Ant and Vando have recently been underperforming their season stats. Hopefully, they'll both be rejuvenated by the rest they've had over the all-star break. Meanwhile, Prince and McDaniels have recently been outperforming their season stats. Hopefully, that will continue. Based on the numbers, and accounting for the recent improvement of Prince and McDaniels, I'd make the following changes in the rotation:

1. Allocate most of Beasley's minutes to Nowell
2. Sign a big like Monroe and give him a significant portion of Naz Reid's minutes.

I hear your first point, Lip...Nowell is having a better season statistically than Beasley by almost every measure. Ultimately though I trust Finchy's judgement here staying with Beasley. I suspect his decision is based on Malik's recent improved shooting. Before his disastrous two games before the break, he was making 51% of his threes in the 7 previous February games. I suspect Finchy will stay with Beasley unless his shot completely falls apart. A hot-shooting Beasley would be a valuable trade chip in the off-season.